Property Market 2019

beauf

L1011 wrote: »

The risk of loss of income or spending power has applied to anyone buying a house with a mortgage for ever though

Affordability of property and the risk of property or income, varies over time, depending when you buy and market conditions. The question is how exposed people are at this moment in time.

beauf

shenanagans wrote: »

That's life. Those are the risks anyone taking out a loan faces. If you can't accept those risks you'd never take out a loan.

As for the last 4 years....If you bought a house in say 2010 and lost you'r job in the last 4 years ...chances are your house has gained in value....sell it.

There's always a risk the property market can take a turn for the worst but I don't see it in the short term. IMO.

Neither do I. Medium term not so sure. The market is softening and its likely because we've exceeded what most people can afford or borrow.

ECO_Mental

Talking to a Solicitor today as I am putting my house up for sale this week or next. Cork City, 3 bed semi.

Anyway shooting the breeze and talking about the market she something very interesting... house up to the 350k'ish mark are doing ok and people are still buying. €350k-700k are slow to sell.....but houses over €700k are doing ok as well and are selling.

What this is saying (imo) is first time buyers your average Joe can afford up to 350-400 and people buying over 700k are not worried about money, but its the squeezed middle again are struggling either get deposits together or the borrow limits are holding them back.

Bluefoam

ECO_Mental wrote: »

Talking to a Solicitor today as I am putting my house up for sale this week or next. Cork City, 3 bed semi.

Anyway shooting the breeze and talking about the market she something very interesting... house up to the 350k'ish mark are doing ok and people are still buying. €350k-700k are slow to sell.....but houses over €700k are doing ok as well and are selling.

What this is saying (imo) is first time buyers your average Joe can afford up to 350-400 and people buying over 700k are not worried about money, but its the squeezed middle again are struggling either get deposits together or the borrow limits are holding them back.

Or that many people in decent homes are happy to stay put... The market it not on the rise to any great degree, Brexit poses possible insecurity... People are happy with what they've got and not taking risks...

The_Conductor

Bluefoam wrote: »

Or that many people in decent homes are happy to stay put... The market it not on the rise to any great degree, Brexit poses possible insecurity... People are happy with what they've got and not taking risks...

+1
People are becoming more and more risk adverse.
Consumer sentiment is also down, ironically, by more in Ireland than in the UK.
People are worried- and are not being reassured by the deafening silence from official sources.
Its not just Brexit- there are a growing list of issues, almost on a daily basis, which are adding to the unease people are feeling.

99problems1

The only thing that will bring prices down enough is a crash. it's badly needed.

Anyone thinking supply will bring down houses is naiive. This is the new normal. We're up there with the most expensive cities in the world and it ain't changing.

Supply will be slow enough there'll always be demand to keep prices inflated.

I think there was about 30k net immigration from foreigners last year.

For the first time in 10 years, more Irish citizens returned home than left the country. The overall effect was an increase of 64,500 residents for the year, bringing the population to 4.857 million.

65k people. What's that...25k units just to house them alone, nevermind all the houses that need to be built to satisfy current demand.

A total of 61,200 babies were born in the period, while 30,700 people died, resulting in a natural population increase of 30,500.

Country is fcuked. It really really is.

Sheeps

99problems1 wrote: »

The only thing that will bring prices down enough is a crash. it's badly needed.

Anyone thinking supply will bring down houses is naiive. This is the new normal. We're up there with the most expensive cities in the world and it ain't changing.

Supply will be slow enough there'll always be demand to keep prices inflated.

I think there was about 30k net immigration from foreigners last year.



65k people. What's that...25k units just to house them alone, nevermind all the houses that need to be built to satisfy current demand.



Country is fcuked. It really really is.

Supply is probably already bringing prices down. I say that meaning that prices are coming down and that's the probable cause. A property crash would suit me, but supply will eventually bring the price down, just slower.


My hope in a crash situation would be to be able to pick up a cheap period home in need of restoration, because it's not livable people will be more willing to sell at a lower price, because most of the time they're inherited. Coupled with cheaper labour, i believe it would be the most likely way of extracting the most value from the market in a crash.

UsBus

99problems1 wrote: »

The only thing that will bring prices down enough is a crash. it's badly needed.

Anyone thinking supply will bring down houses is naiive. This is the new normal. We're up there with the most expensive cities in the world and it ain't changing.

Supply will be slow enough there'll always be demand to keep prices inflated.

I agree, supply will never catch up with demand. It usually overtakes it when sentiment is racing in the opposite direction.

I've just completed a long drawn out purchase. Normally I would be anxious about changing economic conditions and Brexit etc. but it has become so difficult to purchase in the last few years that I was happy to have a roof over my head whatever happens in the next few years. I have hedged my bets somewhat by taking out a much smaller mortgage.

Country is fcuked. It really really is.

Completely agree, it feels like there's a serious amount of trouble coming down the tracks, not to mention the neverending health crisis, housing crisis and insurance mess we can't get out of...

Dolbhad

UsBus wrote: »

I agree, supply will never catch up with demand. It usually overtakes it when sentiment is racing in the opposite direction.

I've just completed a long drawn out purchase. Normally I would be anxious about changing economic conditions and Brexit etc. but it has become so difficult to purchase in the last few years that I was happy to have a roof over my head whatever happens in the next few years. I have hedged my bets somewhat by taking out a much smaller mortgage.

I think that’s very interesting and a sentiment of most that we are happy to buy in this market. The alternative is renting which is so much worse. And can make buying a house a safe bet to an extent. It’s not like in the boom where people were doing starter homes or buying multiple homes. Most are talking about one home and long term.

My brother in law and sister bought at height of boom. Will be another year before they are out of negative equity but it doesn’t bother them as they bought a house they could grow into (and have) so no need to upgrade. And they have said they wouldn’t change it having to be on the rental market now. They don’t envy me at all trying to buy a house now...

riddles

UsBus wrote: »

I agree, supply will never catch up with demand. It usually overtakes it when sentiment is racing in the opposite direction.

I've just completed a long drawn out purchase. Normally I would be anxious about changing economic conditions and Brexit etc. but it has become so difficult to purchase in the last few years that I was happy to have a roof over my head whatever happens in the next few years. I have hedged my bets somewhat by taking out a much smaller mortgage.



Completely agree, it feels like there's a serious amount of trouble coming down the tracks, not to mention the neverending health crisis, housing crisis and insurance mess we can't get out of...

People should not over look the fact that we are as a country broke. Our cost has made us completely uncompetitive. Our ability to borrow money is all that’s keeping the lights on. The everything is free model social welfare system and a bankrupt pension system are just waiting to explode. Our corporation tax is also under the microscope.
There is a lot more turbulence ahead for Ireland which one needs to consider when signing up for debt. It used ago be the case 15 years for a mortgage should be the limit. That seems to have gone out to 25-35 as the new norm.

Also factor in the cost of raising kids. Most people I know didn’t factor this in. 100-250k€ per child depending on what reports you read.

Wanderer78

riddles wrote:

People should not over look the fact that we are as a country broke. Our cost has made us completely uncompetitive. Our ability to borrow money is all that’s keeping the lights on. The everything is free model social welfare system and a bankrupt pension system are just waiting to explode. Our corporation tax is also under the microscope. There is a lot more turbulence ahead for Ireland which one needs to consider when signing up for debt. It used ago be the case 15 years for a mortgage should be the limit. That seems to have gone out to 25-35 as the new norm.

Again, we have a fairly typical free market economy, largely based on the neoliberal/neoclassical ideology/model, I.e. we do not have a so called 'everything for free, social welfare system'! Again, you will find, rapidly rising levels of private debt have caused far more harm in this country, than rising public debt levels, again, also common in free market economies. Why do people have to take on more private debt, and over longer periods, maybe it's due to the increasing availability of cheap credit, which in turn has caused the rapid rise in the price of assets, in particular housing. Maybe there's something wrong with this model/ideology?

99problems1

Sheeps wrote: »

Supply is probably already bringing prices down. I say that meaning that prices are coming down and that's the probable cause. A property crash would suit me, but supply will eventually bring the price down, just slower.


My hope in a crash situation would be to be able to pick up a cheap period home in need of restoration, because it's not livable people will be more willing to sell at a lower price, because most of the time they're inherited. Coupled with cheaper labour, i believe it would be the most likely way of extracting the most value from the market in a crash.

It won't, because earnings are still going up and up.

Meaning people will be willing to spend big money to get the house they want. Supply will be so slow there'll be demand for them.

Sure the feckin builders are stopping building already because they say it's not profitable.

The_Conductor

99problems1 wrote: »

It won't, because earnings are still going up and up.

Meaning people will be willing to spend big money to get the house they want. Supply will be so slow there'll be demand for them.

Sure the feckin builders are stopping building already because they say it's not profitable.

Wage growth is not going 'up-up-up'- it was, but in the last quarterly household survey, its stalled. The mean wage growth in the last 12 months is 3.8% or 1.75% for public sector employees. A few sectors are doing remarkably well- however, the economy as a whole is not reflective of the finance or IT sectors.

awec

riddles wrote: »

People should not over look the fact that we are as a country broke. Our cost has made us completely uncompetitive. Our ability to borrow money is all that’s keeping the lights on. The everything is free model social welfare system and a bankrupt pension system are just waiting to explode. Our corporation tax is also under the microscope.
There is a lot more turbulence ahead for Ireland which one needs to consider when signing up for debt. It used ago be the case 15 years for a mortgage should be the limit. That seems to have gone out to 25-35 as the new norm.

Also factor in the cost of raising kids. Most people I know didn’t factor this in. 100-250k€ per child depending on what reports you read.

How long ago was it when 15 year mortages were the norm?

The_Conductor

awec wrote: »

How long ago was it when 15 year mortages were the norm?

Back in the 1960s when my parents bought their first house- 20 year mortgages were the norm, but you could get a 24,25 or 30 year mortgage.
I'm not sure that 15 year mortgages were ever the norm- they have been available since the early 1990s- but seldom accessed (for a variety of reasons). Normally lenders do not consider very short term mortgages of this nature (as they'd rather lend unsecured sums at vastly inflated interest rates for shorter term loans- its just the business model they are happiest with).

Cyrus

99problems1 wrote: »

The only thing that will bring prices down enough is a crash. it's badly needed.

Anyone thinking supply will bring down houses is naiive. This is the new normal. We're up there with the most expensive cities in the world and it ain't changing.

Supply will be slow enough there'll always be demand to keep prices inflated.

I think there was about 30k net immigration from foreigners last year.



65k people. What's that...25k units just to house them alone, nevermind all the houses that need to be built to satisfy current demand.



Country is fcuked. It really really is.

a crash is badly needed, yeah thats the solution :rolleyes:

People have literally never had it better but the country is fcuked.

Cyrus

ECO_Mental wrote: »

What this is saying (imo) is first time buyers your average Joe can afford up to 350-400 and people buying over 700k are not worried about money, but its the squeezed middle again are struggling either get deposits together or the borrow limits are holding them back.

People buying over 700k arent worried about money? WTF

they are probably a lot more worried as their mortgage is a lot bigger and the risk of facing a decrease in income tends to be higher.

Wanderer78

Cyrus wrote: »

a crash is badly needed, yeah thats the solution :rolleyes:

People have literally never had it better but the country is fcuked.

some people have never had it better, some not so much, some living in desperation, generalisations rarely if ever represent all

99problems1

Cyrus wrote: »

a crash is badly needed, yeah thats the solution :rolleyes:

People have literally never had it better but the country is fcuked.

Oh yeah, It's great having a landlord who won't do **** in the house because they'd get someone in tomorrow if I left...walls not painted for 8 years, garden shed caving in.

You're detached from reality.

And yes, a crash is badly needed. It's the only way the country will be emptied out and the ratio of people to resources is fixed.

beauf

awec wrote: »

How long ago was it when 15 year mortages were the norm?

I'd say about 25yrs or more ago.

Mickiemcfist

99problems1 wrote: »

Oh yeah, It's great having a landlord who won't do **** in the house because they'd get someone in tomorrow if I left...walls not painted for 8 years, garden shed caving in.

You're detached from reality.

And yes, a crash is badly needed. It's the only way the country will be emptied out and the ratio of people to resources is fixed.

We had one 10 years ago, did it solve everything?

beauf

Cyrus wrote: »

People buying over 700k arent worried about money? WTF

they are probably a lot more worried as their mortgage is a lot bigger and the risk of facing a decrease in income tends to be higher.

Thats a different worry than worrying about feeding and clothing and housing the kids.

Wanderer78

99problems1 wrote: »

Oh yeah, It's great having a landlord who won't do **** in the house because they'd get someone in tomorrow if I left...walls not painted for 8 years, garden shed caving in.

You're detached from reality.

And yes, a crash is badly needed. It's the only way the country will be emptied out and the ratio of people to resources is fixed.

jaysis! we really do need to do something about all this nationalism nonsense, a crash is need, ffs!

fliball123

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

We had one 10 years ago, did it solve everything?

It didnt the thing people forget is that if we crash again even if there are huge price drops like the last crash , credit dries up so only the cash buyers and rich get the deals

Topgear on Dave

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

We had one 10 years ago, did it solve everything?

If you kept your job and didn't emigrate house prices and rent became quite affordable.

That's IF you kept your job :pac:

(I didn't, I left )

The_Conductor

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

If you kept your job and didn't emigrate house prices and rent became quite affordable.

That's IF you kept your job :pac:

(I didn't, I left )

Lots of people who kept their jobs took massive pay cuts. 25-30% paycuts were common- as were additional hours. Even where house prices and rent fell- it doesn't necessarily mean they were more affordable- simply, everyone had to do a lot more with a lot less.

beauf

99problems1 wrote: »

Oh yeah, It's great having a landlord who won't do **** in the house because they'd get someone in tomorrow if I left...walls not painted for 8 years, garden shed caving in.

You're detached from reality.

And yes, a crash is badly needed. It's the only way the country will be emptied out and the ratio of people to resources is fixed.

People are priced out of the cities and possible their home areas where they grew up. This has been a thing for a long time in others places like London, but its really not sinking in here.

People still think they have a right to be able to afford to live anywhere they want. They also think they should at least as well off as their parents, same lifestyle. However this is no longer true.

Back when people had lower wages and cheaper accommodation, their standard of living was much lower. back then there was loads of supply. Took ages to sell a house, you could rent a different place each week.

beauf

The_Conductor wrote: »

Lots of people who kept their jobs took massive pay cuts. 25-30% paycuts were common- as were additional hours. Even where house prices and rent fell- it doesn't necessarily mean they were more affordable- simply, everyone had to do a lot more with a lot less.

I wonder when people look at wage increases does it factor in that for many they are coming from lower wages, and are only going back to what they used to be on. If you factor in the longer hours, which in most cases people never got back their original hours, regardless if a company is back in profit.

Interested Observer

awec wrote: »

How long ago was it when 15 year mortages were the norm?

My parents approaching their 70s now certainly didn't have a 15 year mortgage. There are a lot, a lot, of totally unverified facts and figures thrown about in this thread.

The_Conductor

beauf wrote: »

I wonder when people look at wage increases does it factor in that for many they are coming from lower wages, and are only going back to what they used to be on. If you factor in the longer hours, which in most cases people never got back their original hours, regardless if a company is back in profit.

400k employees in the public sector agreed to work between 2 and 3 hours extra a week, alongside 25% (average) paycuts. They're having strips torn out of them for a 1.75% pay restoration last Monday. The government have said it is unfeasible to restore hours for people as it would be too expensive (its suggested the 2.5 hours (average) a week extra that people work would cost 700 million to unwind....... Thats just the public sector. The private sector took pay cuts too- however, where the public sector took larger paycuts and agreed longer hours- the private sector, in general, didn't cut pay as much- but were far faster to make people redundant- a different philosophy was followed in the public and private sectors.

The CSO report following the last downturn suggested that pensioners and social welfare recipients were the least affected by the last downturn............