Property Market 2019

smurgen

Deleted User wrote: »

doubt it, anyone who is doing renovations at the moment know how much the internal fit out of a house costs both in labour and materials. By your assumption if this gets hit so does the tradespeople which then triggers further consequences down to the shop keeper. As i said before people need to be very careful what they wish for. Ireland has progressed because everyone benefits (i know i will help about Johnny and Mary struggling to pay bills) down to the tradespeople, labourer, general operatives. Its peoples expectation that they can live in an A1 rated house in the most sought after areas and wanting everything now is what causes the chaos.

Ask people who bought in the 70s and 80s, people who walked to work to save on fuel, people who paid for their TV, washing machine over a few years. No it wasnt as rosey and pleasant as people try to make out. Yes they bought a house on a 20 year mortgage on 1 income but also had far less, struggled longer and had a far inferior house. Just look at the money being pumped into houses that go on the market after old people die.

And what of those of us living conservatively during the boom while all those around us get up to their necks in debt? Some people will have to sell regardless of price drops and some of us will have the funding to do it when they do.

OwlsZat

smurgen wrote: »

And what of those of us living conservatively during the boom while all those around us get up to their necks in debt? Some people will have to sell regardless of price drops and some of us will have the funding to do it when they do.

Did nobody tell you money is free? You'll regret this when the banks wont give you free money later.

pearcider

OwlsZat wrote: »

Did nobody tell you money is free? You'll regret this when the banks wont give you free money later.

Soon the bank will pay you to take the loan out...what can possibly go wrong?

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/aug/13/danish-bank-launches-worlds-first-negative-interest-rate-mortgage

The_Conductor

pearcider wrote: »

Soon the bank will pay you to take the loan out...what can possibly go wrong?

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/aug/13/danish-bank-launches-worlds-first-negative-interest-rate-mortgage

Its only a portion of the loan (typically 65% of the LTV of the property)- they have proper deposit requirements and the first 20% of the loan is at personal lending rates and terms- in Denmark this is 8.5% on a ten year term.

Its actually structured really really well.
The EU Commission approached Ireland with this model in 2007- but we ignored their advice- to our detriment.

The Danish model does in actual fact work.

OwlsZat

The Government has given 1.1B towards 11,000 social housing units. Put another way that's 100k each. Not sure their track record of buying off the open market suggests they can get anywhere near that cost per unit.

pearcider

I firmly believe government intervention does more harm than good. Its crazy that these beurocrats think more regulations and schemes are the answer. They caused the homeless crisis by banning bedsits but they are never called up on it. Socialist dictatorship will be the inevitable result.

mayordenis

pearcider wrote: »

I firmly believe government intervention does more harm than good. Its crazy that these beurocrats think more regulations and schemes are the answer. They caused the homeless crisis by banning bedsits but they are never called up on it. Socialist dictatorship will be the inevitable result.

A lot to unpack there. I don't think government intervention always does more harm than good, but it's often true. I don't think bedsits are even close to the best solution that could have been put forward either then or now. I don't see why a socialist dictatorship is even brought into the debate. Like even a socialist democracy would make more sense, although still pretty farfetched. Certainly not an inevitable result of banning bedsits.

Ban bedsits.
...
...
...
Socialist dictatorship.

pearcider

mayordenis wrote: »

A lot to unpack there. I don't think government intervention always does more harm than good, but it's often true. I don't think bedsits are even close to the best solution that could have been put forward either then or now. I don't see why a socialist dictatorship is even brought into the debate. Like even a socialist democracy would make more sense, although still pretty farfetched. Certainly not an inevitable result of banning bedsits.

Ban bedsits.
...
...
...
Socialist dictatorship.

Read Hayek “the road to serfdom” and come back to me.

Sheeps

pearcider wrote: »

I firmly believe government intervention does more harm than good. Its crazy that these beurocrats think more regulations and schemes are the answer. They caused the homeless crisis by banning bedsits but they are never called up on it. Socialist dictatorship will be the inevitable result.

lmao

padz

In a way it already Is socialist dictatorship to some degree, the 'migrant crisis' is all about regime change, the housing is all back room deals and the govt Bill's itself pay for the accommodation, unless you're in the know you wouldn't know but I've seen financials, everything becomes a trust or a social service and it's really the people on the boards or behind scenes that get the money, same thing happened in the USA under Hillary/Obama, run up govt debt but your The one getting paid by housing migrants and the health care,.... Obama recently purchased a 22millon home, it's all business... also Irish Govt debt Is now over 200billion

Padre_Pio

pearcider wrote: »

Read Hayek “the road to serfdom” and come back to me.

What are his views on bedsits?

pearcider

Padre_Pio wrote: »

What are his views on bedsits?

Irrelevant and a cheap shot. Anybody who reads Hayek can see the truth. Hungarian economist M. Palyi said: “where the Welfare State is on the march, the Police State is not far behind.”

pearcider

padz wrote: »

In a way it already Is socialist dictatorship to some degree, the 'migrant crisis' is all about regime change, the housing is all back room deals and the govt Bill's itself pay for the accommodation, unless you're in the know you wouldn't know but I've seen financials, everything becomes a trust or a social service and it's really the people on the boards or behind scenes that get the money, same thing happened in the USA under Hillary/Obama, run up govt debt but your The one getting paid by housing migrants and the health care,.... Obama recently purchased a 22millon home, it's all business... also Irish Govt debt Is now over 200billion

Obama buying a 22 million home and yet these champagne socialists cannot stomach the truth that they have been conned.

Sheeps

padz wrote: »

In a way it already Is socialist dictatorship to some degree, the 'migrant crisis' is all about regime change, the housing is all back room deals and the govt Bill's itself pay for the accommodation, unless you're in the know you wouldn't know but I've seen financials, everything becomes a trust or a social service and it's really the people on the boards or behind scenes that get the money, same thing happened in the USA under Hillary/Obama, run up govt debt but your The one getting paid by housing migrants and the health care,.... Obama recently purchased a 22millon home, it's all business... also Irish Govt debt Is now over 200billion

Ok Gemma O'Doherty, but you forgot the chemtrails.

pearcider

Sheeps wrote: »

Ok Gemma O'Doherty, but you forgot the chemtrails.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-s-200bn-debt-burden-how-did-we-get-here-1.3943085?mode=amp

padz

Haha very funny Gemma never worked in finance, she's got the right ha ha but the wrong hoho she's off the Mark to some degree, the migrants are Cool but they're just money for these programs, fun and games, follow the money and govt debt

The_Conductor

Socialist dictatorship........ thats a bit of a leap.
Massive issues were caused by the ban of bedsits- predominantly because there was no replacement accommodation envisaged for the aforementioned bedsits- the message was those in bedsits would transition into more traditional accommodation types. Well- they were in bedsits for a reason, predominantly, because it was all they could afford. Money for traditional accommodation types- may have materialised down the line- as homelessness reared its head- however, there was no commensurate increase in accommodation. When increases in accommodation finally started to occur- it wasn't where people actually wanted to live.

The worst thing the government can be accused of here- is a staggering lack of joined up thinking- not some scheme to enforce a socialist dictatorship- a lack of vision as to what the implications of their actions and inactions might be.

scheister

The_Conductor wrote: »

The worst thing the government can be accused of here- is a staggering lack of joined up thinking- not some scheme to enforce a socialist dictatorship- a lack of vision as to what the implications of their actions and inactions might be.

This i will agree with there is little in the way of joint up thinking on housing. It is not a case that the government are fiddling while Rome burns but rather try to focus on putting the fire out by throwing a pint glass of water in one section of the fire.

Something similar to slanite care (SP?) may be the way to go. Got cross party support on a housing plan looking a social housing/affordable housing and rental properties. Ensure that the policy is followed not just in Leinster house but also at local level.

jam_mac_jam

padz wrote: »

In a way it already Is socialist dictatorship to some degree, the 'migrant crisis' is all about regime change, the housing is all back room deals and the govt Bill's itself pay for the accommodation, unless you're in the know you wouldn't know but I've seen financials, everything becomes a trust or a social service and it's really the people on the boards or behind scenes that get the money, same thing happened in the USA under Hillary/Obama, run up govt debt but your The one getting paid by housing migrants and the health care,.... Obama recently purchased a 22millon home, it's all business... also Irish Govt debt Is now over 200billion

Please look up the words socialist and dictatorship as you clearly do not have an understanding of either word's meaning.

CarlOMartin

Monthly CSO figures out today again. What bemuses me over the last few months is how our mainstream media reports on these figures - they just copy/paste year-on-year percentage difference and make predictions and comments based on that. Meanwhile, monthly data, including a nice graph, is there in plain sight, showing clear trendlines.

So we get the situation where today newspapers are saying that house prices in Dublin are falling, while they are obviously increasing for the last six months according to data. Similarly, earlier this year, they claimed Dublin prices are rising at slower rate while they were obviously falling for an extended period of time.

I'm not saying that y-on-y statistics are irrelevant, but they are from only statistic like they are portrayed.

Padre_Pio

CarlOMartin wrote: »

Monthly CSO figures out today again. What bemuses me over the last few months is how our mainstream media reports on these figures - they just copy/paste year-on-year percentage difference and make predictions and comments based on that. Meanwhile, monthly data, including a nice graph, is there in plain sight, showing clear trendlines.

So we get the situation where today newspapers are saying that house prices in Dublin are falling, while they are obviously increasing for the last six months according to data. Similarly, earlier this year, they claimed Dublin prices are rising at slower rate while they were obviously falling for an extended period of time.

I'm not saying that y-on-y statistics are irrelevant, but they are from only statistic like they are portrayed.

It's just the nature of the news, all about clicks and impressions.

It's better to be first and incorrect, than last and correct.
Actually it's probably better to be incorrect than correct, as it sparks more outrage and sharing.

The_Conductor

Year-on-year stats smooth out seasonal variations (which *do* arise).
Just because you have price rises for 6 months (or however long) means nothing- if it is entirely explainable by seasonal factors.
This is why the employment stats from the CSO are based on seasonal variances too- its all well and good looking at it on a monthly basis- however, what is relevant is where it was a year ago........?

beauf

Padre_Pio wrote: »

It's just the nature of the news, all about clicks and impressions.

It's better to be first and incorrect, than last and correct.
Actually it's probably better to be incorrect than correct, as it sparks more outrage and sharing.

Exactly.

It's no longer journalism its sensationalism.

But it's because the audience has the attention span of a gold fish. No considered thought at all. Just instant reaction.

beauf

The_Conductor wrote: »

Year-on-year stats smooth out seasonal variations (which *do* arise).
Just because you have price rises for 6 months (or however long) means nothing- if it is entirely explainable by seasonal factors.
This is why the employment stats from the CSO are based on seasonal variances too- its all well and good looking at it on a monthly basis- however, what is relevant is where it was a year ago........?

It's like quoting out of context.

OwlsZat

Resident economist David McWilliams reckons the Government don't want to reduce the cost of building homes because if property prices drop it might hurt them at the next election.

Party politics will also result in us running a cropper in the next downturn. Overspending with little to show for it to appease the masses.

It seems the political system somewhat creates the boom and bust economic cycles.

L1011

OwlsZat wrote: »

Resident economist David McWilliams reckons reckons the Government don't want to reduce the cost of building homes because it property price drops might hurt them at the next election.

Party politics will also result in us running a cropper in the next downturn. Overspending with little to show for it to appease the masses.

It seems the political system somewhat create the boom and bust economic cycles.

McWilliams is often wrong on important stuff; but this is the kind of random tattle where he might have a point.

There are ways to make major reductions in construction cost without changing standards yet none have been done. Most involve a hit to the exchequer so that's being given as the reason why.

padz

Do any of you understand what's going on, our own taoiseach said on the late late he's just the CEO of Ireland, our ex taoiseach is now an advisor for a foreign investor in which he advises them which of our assets they can buy and take over, Huawei who stole us technology has research and development here now, some 750k new Irish passport's have been issued since 2017, do you honestly think they have your interest's at heart, Ireland Is for sale wholesale, Chinese investor's are shifting they're usual property purchasing In USA because of the trade war they're looking elsewhere, do any of you actually know what's going on?

L1011

padz wrote: »

Do any of you understand what's going on, our own taoiseach said on the late late he's just the CEO of Ireland, our ex taoiseach is now an advisor for a foreign investor in which he advises them which of our assets they can buy and take over, Huawei who stole us technology has research and development here now, some 750k new Irish passport's have been issued since 2017, do you honestly think they have your interest's at heart, Ireland Is for sale wholesale, Chinese investor's are shifting they're usual property purchasing In USA because of the trade war they're looking elsewhere, do any of you actually know what's going on?

Wrong forum. Stop posting this here

hmmm

Brexit - looks like a possible deal which could be favourable for Ireland.
The US has announced a partial deal with China.
Part of the US yield curve uninverts.

This really won't suit the people predicting imminent financial doom. One thing I've learned over the years is that events like 2006/2007 are extremely rare, and usually humanity just muddles along on a generally upward trajectory.

Experience_day

hmmm wrote: »

Brexit - looks like a possible deal which could be favourable for Ireland.
The US has announced a partial deal with China.
Part of the US yield curve uninverts.

This really won't suit the people predicting imminent financial doom. One thing I've learned over the years is that events like 2006/2007 are extremely rare, and usually humanity just muddles along on a generally upward trajectory.

But contrarians are inevitably right at some point...