Property Market 2019

OwlsZat

The Student wrote: »

Perhaps we are a society need to take a look at ourselves and re-evalue what we want and what we can actually afford. In my view the system is broken and it is not working for anyone.

This. We are getting dam all for our exceptionally buoyant economy. We hemorrhage the little finance we have grossly overpaying on capital expenditure projects. We are delivering very little in terms of improving the services people are paying large tax sums for.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-s-200bn-debt-burden-how-did-we-get-here-1.3943085

VW 1

It's built into the psyche, the Liberal Democrats on a leaders questions debate with an interactive audience were being derided for having "austerity" policies because they believe they should run a slight budget surplus rather than spending every penny and borrowing more.

Kamili

All this chat reminds me of this..

IAmTheReign

The Student wrote: »

Yes I understand you refinance the loans but if you dont adhere to the payment terms of the original loan why would a new loan rate be less than the existing rate.

If you are meeting your loan repayments then you are a good credit risk and the interest rate will reflect that, if you are not a good credit risk then the interest rate on any refinancing loan could be higher than you existing loan interest rate. So you are not saving any money.

We are a high cost economy and if inflation increases we become less competitive with our competition (if their inflation rate does not increase like ours).

We don't have the luxury of revaluing our currency what we need to do reduce our costs to be competitive.

Perhaps we are a society need to take a look at ourselves and re-evalue what we want and what we can actually afford. In my view the system is broken and it is not working for anyone.

I don't want to drag the thread totally off topic but did you even open the link I posted? Not only are we meeting our payment terms, we've exceeded them.

The Student

IAmTheReign wrote: »

I don't want to drag the thread totally off topic but did you even open the link I posted? Not only are we meeting our payment terms, we've exceeded them.

I did not open the link but if we are exceeding them then it improves our credit rating hence lower interest rates in any refinance deal.

There maybe merit in meeting our repayments and not overpaying and having a "rainy day fund" if we do this we need to use this fund productively but I don't think we are actually capable of this.

Assetbacked

rightmove wrote: »

All the small LL that left were a cheap and compliant way to get tax with minimal effort...but they are now gone and more to follow. Youd wonder what is going on in Murphy's head???

Ireland Inc.

Murphy is being subjected to heavy lobbying from big money interests such as investment funds and developers who have vested interests that are entirely at odds with the individuals who live in the State who just want somewhere to live that doesn't cost a hefty portion of their income.

Measures implemented have only reduced competition by forcing small landlords out of the market and served to prop up the "returns" on investment for the big institutional investors. The idea of Ireland being open to business for FG essentially means that foreign money being pumped into the country is necessarily a good thing notwithstanding how socially destructive it can be. Consequently, I don't think it is outrageous to assume we could have our own Trump or Brexit type of voter backlash.

Ultimately, the current ills of the world fall on wealth inequality. In Ireland, a lot of money is pumped into property so wealth inequality is felt more strongly in the property market in Ireland. Flooding the country with properties is the best solution to address this but we would need to move away from seeing property as such a treasure trove for investment and view it as the bedrock for a stable society, meaning that is is affordable for all level of incomes.

OwlsZat

The Student wrote: »

There maybe merit in meeting our repayments and not overpaying and having a "rainy day fund" if we do this we need to use this fund productively but I don't think we are actually capable of this.

There was no contribution to the rainy day fund. The supposed 500M was instead used to plug gaps.

The_Conductor

OwlsZat wrote: »

There was no contribution to the rainy day fund. The supposed 500M was instead used to plug gaps.

It was insufficient for the supplementary estimate that had to be voted through for the HSE (alone). Savings were actually made almost across the board in all other government Departments- as advised to PED.

Our Health Service may be creaking at the seams- however, structually it is sound (just incapable of living within its means). The manner in which it constantly needs additional funds- every single year- has to be dealt with- they honestly seem to believe there is a magic money tree that keeps on giving.

As for paying down our debts- it makes sense to refinance expensive debts for cheaper debts where possible. By doing a little switcheroo'ing we are paying over a billion a year less in interest, than we would otherwise be doing. That said- we have the third highest national debt per head of population globally- and while it might be affordable at current low interest rates, they may not stay low forever. Keep in mind at one stage over 40% of our gross tax take was being spent on interest payments. We cannot afford to go back to scary times like those (and those of us in our 40s and older will remember just how bad times were).

We just seem to be politically inept here- subscribing to the budgetary discipline as prescribed by Brussels is one of the better aspects of the EU- it imposes fiscal discipline on us that we seem to be incapable of adhering to without international oversight.

Its a pity that we can't exercise the self discipline that we need in this country ourselves- but we can't. Our own unique brand of parochial politics and push pump politicians, is a scourge on our people.

Uriel.

The_Conductor wrote: »

It was insufficient for the supplementary estimate that had to be voted through for the HSE (alone). Savings were actually made almost across the board in all other government Departments- as advised to PED.

Our Health Service may be creaking at the seams- however, structually it is sound (just incapable of living within its means). The manner in which it constantly needs additional funds- every single year- has to be dealt with- they honestly seem to believe there is a magic money tree that keeps on giving.

As for paying down our debts- it makes sense to refinance expensive debts for cheaper debts where possible. By doing a little switcheroo'ing we are paying over a billion a year less in interest, than we would otherwise be doing. That said- we have the third highest national debt per head of population globally- and while it might be affordable at current low interest rates, they may not stay low forever. Keep in mind at one stage over 40% of our gross tax take was being spent on interest payments. We cannot afford to go back to scary times like those (and those of us in our 40s and older will remember just how bad times were).

We just seem to be politically inept here- subscribing to the budgetary discipline as prescribed by Brussels is one of the better aspects of the EU- it imposes fiscal discipline on us that we seem to be incapable of adhering to without international oversight.

Its a pity that we can't exercise the self discipline that we need in this country ourselves- but we can't. Our own unique brand of parochial politics and push pump politicians, is a scourge on our people.

On the health system, are we really satisfied that it's budgetary allocation is sufficient to meet the core demands plus the other services we want or is government underfunding then bailing it out when it overspends.

If €500m additional went in this year as a supplementary (don't know the actual figure) are we, as a society happy to have that investment or would we prefer to cut services or discontinue certain initiatives. Because that's the alternative. Obviously improved efficiency etc. is part of the mix also but we've appeared to have failed to fund the great hope that is the Sláintecare reform programme.

terrydel

utmbuilder wrote: »

I think Ireland is facing a real rental adjustment in the next 2 years and landlords will simply not be able to sustain what's coming.

Building will be gone from state funded to private in next 24 months.

The only state funding of house building here is via pro developer policies, and incentivising the private sector. The state itself is not interested in building anything.

OwlsZat

Hardly surprising.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2019/1127/1095457-politics/

OwlsZat

Cairn Homes to sell 150 homes in Maynooth to Urbeo Residential. The new build-to-rent residential home buyer. The group are joint funded by Starwood capital an investment firm headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida and the Irish Strategic Investment fund ""an attractive local partner for third party investors in the Irish market".

It's great that tax payers money is being used to assist Starwood capital generate a healthy yield. Could the state not just have bought them and put the return to future house building or do we only buy social housing? What a strange world we live in.


https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/1128/1095665-cairn-homes-maynooth-and-clonburris-deal/

AlmightyCushion

OwlsZat wrote: »

Cairn Homes to sell 150 homes in Maynooth to Urbeo Residential. The new build-to-rent residential home buyer. The group are joint funded by Starwood capital an investment firm headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida and the Irish Strategic Investment fund ""an attractive local partner for third party investors in the Irish market".

It's great that tax payers money is being used to assist Starwood capital generate a healthy yield. Could the state not just have bought them and put the return to future house building or do we only buy social housing? What a strange world we live in.


https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/1128/1095665-cairn-homes-maynooth-and-clonburris-deal/

If Starwood Capital are generating a healthy yield from this then so too will the Irish Strategic Investment Fund. Do you think the ISIF just gifted the money to Startwood?

OwlsZat

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

If Starwood Capital are generating a healthy yield from this then so too will the Irish Strategic Investment Fund. Do you think the ISIF just gifted the money to Startwood?

I don't know the terms of the deal, no more than you do. Although the article below indicates that the ISIF put in 60M into the 1B fund. If that's true we'll get about 5% of the returns with the other 95% headed for America.


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/starwood-capital-and-urbeo-to-create-1bn-irish-build-to-rent-platform-1.3733823

AlmightyCushion

OwlsZat wrote: »

I don't know the terms of the deal, no more than you do. Although the article below indicates that the ISIF put in 60M into the 1B fund. If that's true we'll get about 5% of the returns with the other 95% headed for America.


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/starwood-capital-and-urbeo-to-create-1bn-irish-build-to-rent-platform-1.3733823

And if the state had decided to buy the whole thing, as you suggested, we would have needed to put in an additional €940M. Where does that money come from?

OwlsZat

This is in an economy where the central bank is charging overnight rates to banks the volume of money on deposit is so high, and Credit Unions are putting max caps on savers. The economy is overflowing with savings and cash...

Just requires a bit of joined-up thinking on the Government's part. Rather than lazy outsourcing where the profits also leave our shores.


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/savers-forced-to-move-deposits-as-credit-unions-ramp-up-savings-caps-1.3923533

cameramonkey

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

And if the state had decided to buy the whole thing, as you suggested, we would have needed to put in an additional €940M. Where does that money come from?

8 billion sitting in the credit unions with nowhere to go.

Padre_Pio

cameramonkey wrote: »

8 billion sitting in the credit unions with nowhere to go.

And that's people's savings. Keep your hands off.

OwlsZat

Padre_Pio wrote: »

And that's people's savings. Keep your hands off.

Do you remember when savings used to yield a return? Amazing how there's plenty of capital coming from America to take advantage of the 5% yield. We have funds available from Credit Unions / Pension Reserve (ISIF) or we could take low-interest loans from Europe and begin fixing our immense housing crisis.

It really doesn't add up. We have a huge housing shortage. We're not bringing down the cost of building and we're not trying to build more homes. :mad:

cameramonkey

Padre_Pio wrote: »

And that's people's savings. Keep your hands off.

The credit unions have problems because they cant lend out enough money that they can charge interest on. By leaning money out the make money otherwise how do they make money?

riddles

From centralbank.ie
If we look to the future, the population is expected to grow. Project Ireland 2040 estimates that by 2040 the population of Ireland will reach almost six million. This will result in a need for 550,000 more homes with current estimated housing demand of 30,000-35,000 per annum to overcome the current shortfall and then this will reduce to 25,000 new homes per year. In this context, Central Bank research points to house completions of approximately 23,500 units in 2018 and 28,500 in 20196.

In the same period we are expected to move to tax payers ratio of current 5-1 to 2-1.
We will have the realisation of the massive hole in public sector pension provision 40 billion and the impact of private sector workers with inadequate pension provision and the disappearance of the state provided current OAP

Against this how will the state continue it to fund the social welfare commitments including housing. It seems like the Ostrich policy is what we have at the moment - the current political system being short term.

missforgetfull

Hi Everyone,

My house has been valued by different estate agents in the past few months. The figure we were told was €15,000 above where we currently stand. Have other people experienced this or does it happen often, getting over the asking price but under the value you expected? Also we are now 7 weeks on market, usually people are sale agreed between 6-8 weeks, will the recent slowdown in property change this timeframe?

TheSheriff

missforgetfull wrote: »

Hi Everyone,

My house has been valued by different estate agents in the past few months. The figure we were told was €15,000 above where we currently stand. Have other people experienced this or does it happen often, getting over the asking price but under the value you expected? Also we are now 7 weeks on market, usually people are sale agreed between 6-8 weeks, will the recent slowdown in property change this timeframe?

Cant say from a selling perspective, but from a buying perspective we have viewed multiple properties which have been on the market for 4-8 months, the primary reason they were/are over priced based on the quality of the finish/location etc etc.

riclad

The market has slowed down , people are worried about brexit,
prices have fallen by a few per cent in most area,s .
I i had mortgage approval ,i,d wait at least 6 months to see the impact of brexit on the economy.
Its a cliche, location ,location,
there,s no set no of weeks it takes to sell a house.
Depends on where it is, is it priced at a realistic price.
is it an old house, does it need repairs etc
There are new homes and apartments being built,
just not enough to keep up demand .

Cal4567

missforgetfull wrote: »

Hi Everyone,

My house has been valued by different estate agents in the past few months. The figure we were told was €15,000 above where we currently stand. Have other people experienced this or does it happen often, getting over the asking price but under the value you expected? Also we are now 7 weeks on market, usually people are sale agreed between 6-8 weeks, will the recent slowdown in property change this timeframe?

Every property is different but the recent market downturn will mean more properties will take longer to sell. Buyers want to see also if they can get a bit of a bargain. If you need to sell, I would drop by a very small amount. I've done this everytime we have sold. Worked everytime. I appreciate everone's circumstances are different and you may not want to/are able to do that though. You also have to take Christmas into account.

Sloppy_Joe

When will figures for Nov be out?

super_furry

No changes to the mortgage lending rules from the Central Bank today.

Get on the blocks and get ready to apply for those exemptions on January 1.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/1204/1096988-central-bank-mortgage-rules/

Sloppy_Joe

super_furry wrote: »

No changes to the mortgage lending rules from the Central Bank today.

Get on the blocks and get ready to apply for those exemptions on January 1.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/1204/1096988-central-bank-mortgage-rules/

And the pain continues.

super_furry

Sloppy_Joe wrote: »

And the pain continues.

I mean I get it for people that are stuck, but the lending rules are working as intended.

the report says: "Without the restrictions, the Central Bank estimates that house prices this year would been 15% to 25% higher than they currently are."

Bigmac1euro

super_furry wrote: »

I mean I get it for people that are stuck, but the lending rules are working as intended.

the report says: "Without the restrictions, the Central Bank estimates that house prices this year would been 15% to 25% higher than they currently are."

Thank Christ

I could not swallow throwing down an extra 100k on a house and repayments being 14-1500 per month.
Hopefully prices continue to fall at a slow and steady pace.