Property Market 2019

Bbborris

ELM327 wrote: »

That is exactly the definition of a recession.
I am not the only one, research yield curve inversion and how it is one of the first precursors of recession. Service industry decline(another initial precursor) is anecdotally happening since Q1 2019 too, although some attribute this to the VAT changes.


A house I was watching had its price dropped today, I went to view it 2 months ago and there were no takers. A change from the queues I experienced at viewings 12-24 months ago. The market is changing, and it is not positive change we are seeing. I don't think we will see a recession like the sub prime mortgage one of 10 years ago, the same factors are not there, but it is shown in the data that we will see a slowdown, and perhaps a recession globally. 18-24 months, possibly sooner depending on what the brits do.






Yes it is, you can apply for the ltv exemption, and given you are borrowing less than 3.5 may be more likely to get it !

What banks facilitate this? I recently talked to a mortgage advisor and was informed this deposit exception does not exist?

Glenbhoy

Bbborris wrote: »

What banks facilitate this? I recently talked to a mortgage advisor and was informed this deposit exception does not exist?

You might want to consider changing broker if you've engaged that person professionally then!

Details https://www.centralbank.ie/consumer-hub/explainers/what-are-the-mortgage-measures

By the way, I've seen it mentioned that you cannot get both lti and ltv exceptions, that is incorrect, banks may be reluctant to give both, but that is their own policy choice, not legislatively restricted.

kippy

voluntary wrote: »

Sure, you need to be cash rich to make money in recession. Going into a recession with debt is never good.

To be fair being cash rich at any time is a great position to be in at any time.
Debt isn't always bad either. Even in a recession.

Nikki Sixx

There is a news article this morning saying Dublin has reached its peak, houses are now 9 times the average salary in the “big smoke.”

Nikki Sixx

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/dublin-house-prices-more-than-nine-times-the-average-salary-1.3858878?mode=amp

Amirani

Nikki Sixx wrote: »

There is a news article this morning saying Dublin has reached its peak, houses are now 9 times the average salary in the “big smoke.”

Implies that the average house is 4.5x the average salary of 2 people. It's definitely on the high side, but not outrageous, and certainly more reasonable than things were during the mid to late 2000s.

Rental costs versus average salary shows a much worse picture though.

voluntary

kippy wrote: »

To be fair being cash rich at any time is a great position to be in at any time.
Debt isn't always bad either. Even in a recession.

That's right, better be cash rich than cash poor anytime :pac:

The point was, that there are great opportunities during market crashes (whether property or stock or anything basically), but these opportunities are only open to cash buyers. If the only thing you own during a crash is stocks/properties/debt but no cash then you are going to miss the opportunity.

Nikki Sixx

Amirani wrote: »

Implies that the average house is 4.5x the average salary of 2 people. It's definitely on the high side, but not outrageous, and certainly more reasonable than things were during the mid to late 2000s.

Rental costs versus average salary shows a much worse picture though.

Prices have to at least stagnate I’d imagine. Surely they can’t go up forever.

voluntary

Nikki Sixx wrote: »

There is a news article this morning saying Dublin has reached its peak, houses are now 9 times the average salary in the “big smoke.”

Well, the house prices went ahead of themselves. People got blind once again bidding against each other like mad horses. This was pure FOMO.
Vulture funds helped here withholding large numbers of stock from use. There are large apartment blocks around Dublin which are only now dripping slowly to the market being withheld for years lying empty. Vulture funds could afford doing this because they were driving their own agenda, to limit the supply as much as possible and drive prices up before cashing out.

Prices have been falling for the 4 consecutive months now, so I guess buyers made some reality check or indeed the affordability has been stretched to the limits and people cannot secure any higher mortgages (or maybe a bit of both).

Nikki Sixx

voluntary wrote: »

Well, the house prices went ahead of themselves. People got blind once again bidding against each other like mad horses. This was pure FOMO.
Vulture funds helped here withholding large numbers of stock from use. There are large apartment blocks around Dublin which are only now dripping slowly to the market being withheld for years lying empty. Vulture funds could afford doing this because they were driving their own agenda, to limit the supply as much as possible and drive prices up before cashing out.

Prices have been falling for the 4 consecutive months now, so I guess buyers made some reality check or indeed the affordability has been stretched to the limits and people cannot secure any higher mortgages (or maybe a bit of both).

Plus the banks will throw more money around the first two months of the year especially. They are willing to exceed borrowing limits in the early new year.

voluntary

Nikki Sixx wrote: »

Plus the banks will throw more money around the first two months of the year especially. They are willing to exceed borrowing limits in the early new year.

The first three months of the year, yeah. But the approvals translate to transactions with months delay. Buyers secure approvals early but withdraw mortgages over the year. Banks say many buyers secure approvals and don't buy at all.

sacamano

Amirani wrote: »

Rental costs versus average salary shows a much worse picture though.

I'm being lazy here but have you any links to recent reports/articles expanding on this?

Nikki Sixx

sacamano wrote: »

I'm being lazy here but have you any links to recent reports/articles expanding on this?

Just search for rental property on Daft, in Cork or Dublin and you’ll get the picture.

sacamano

I have a picture of what it's like now but am curious to know what it was like 5/10 years ago for a comparison.

The_Conductor

sacamano wrote: »

I have a picture of what it's like now but am curious to know what it was like 5/10 years ago for a comparison.

10 years ago- the property market was still in freefall after the worst economic calamity to hit Ireland since the beef wars of the 1930s-1940s. 5 Years ago- the recovery was very much proceeding- but at an orderly pace (in comparison to the come of the irrational 20-25% rises we saw around the year 1999-2000-2001).

Believe it or not- and despite what you read in the media- current prices, unachievable though they may be- have not reached the peaks achieved (we're still 15-20% off peaks). Rental prices- on the contrary- are an entirely different story- and only going to get worse- if we have an additional 130-140k people in Dublin in the next 3 years.

We are guilty of a complete and utter lack of preparation or planning- for an inevitably future- and on the contrary- believe that a series of knee-jerk reactions- that are hemorrhaging rental units from the market- are somehow a good thing.

We *need* a national discourse on the rental sector- along with an overhaul of planning- to reflect the fact that we need the construction of high density housing units- alongside appropriate facilities and amenities to support them- in our major urban centres.

We've now had 4 months of property price falls- nothing startling- but definitely a trend- radiating outwards from Dublin. A softly falling market- isn't necessarily a bad thing- however, the bigger issue is there no uptick in the availability of rental stock- on the contrary- it appears to be further tightening.

Yanking the rug from under the rental sector is not the answer- policies that vastly improve the supply of units to the sector- are critically needed. The key to unlocking the rental sector- is supply.

bri007

Rental costs are costing 60% of total income for 1/10 renters;

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/one-in-10-households-pay-over-60-of-income-on-rent-1.3844914?mode=amp

Wanderer78

bri007 wrote:

Rental costs are costing 60% of total income for 1/10 renters;

Fairly typical outcome of neoliberal/neoclassical policies

Reversal

Nikki Sixx wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/dublin-house-prices-more-than-nine-times-the-average-salary-1.3858878?mode=amp

Not a hint from this article that prices have actually been falling for 4 consecutive months. Interesting.

voluntary

bri007 wrote: »

Rental costs are costing 60% of total income for 1/10 renters;

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/one-in-10-households-pay-over-60-of-income-on-rent-1.3844914?mode=amp

What I see around is more multi-family housing. Two or three families often with kids sharing a house.. This is the only way some families can live.

Not sure why they don't apply for social housing, maybe they are not eligible or are just unfamiliar with the generous Irish social housing system. Anyway, the trend to share houses by multiple families seems increasing. Nearly like in the boom times before the big crash when the big wave of new eu members migration came.

coolshannagh28

voluntary wrote: »

Well, the house prices went ahead of themselves. People got blind once again bidding against each other like mad horses. This was pure FOMO.
Vulture funds helped here withholding large numbers of stock from use. There are large apartment blocks around Dublin which are only now dripping slowly to the market being withheld for years lying empty. Vulture funds could afford doing this because they were driving their own agenda, to limit the supply as much as possible and drive prices up before cashing out.

Prices have been falling for the 4 consecutive months now, so I guess buyers made some reality check or indeed the affordability has been stretched to the limits and people cannot secure any higher mortgages (or maybe a bit of both).

Vultures and institutional investors have been in control of the sales and rental markets for at least 5 years and have contrived to drive prices and rents sky high by slowly releasing property onto the market to suit their own agendas , this is government policy .

Wanderer78

voluntary wrote:

Not sure why they don't apply for social housing, maybe they are not eligible or are just unfamiliar with the generous Irish social housing system. Anyway, the trend to share houses by multiple families seems increasing. Nearly like in the boom times before the big crash when the big wave of new eu members migration came.

Ah shur look, the irexit party should be well up and running by the next ge, you can join them in promoting their build a wall policy, or whatever nonsense they sprout

cunnifferous

Interesting article in the Irish Times. Certainly points to the fact that we've reached the peak of the market again, in terms of what people can afford to pay.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/dublin-house-prices-more-than-nine-times-the-average-salary-1.3858878?mode=amp

Tigerandahalf

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Fairly typical outcome of neoliberal/neoclassical policies

It is definitely something that is costing the average person a lot. There needs to be a discussion on the price of housing/land and a constitutional right to a home.

No doubt with both partners working the price has risen in accordance but who is ultimately benefitting except the gov with stamp duty/vat and a small coterie of landowners and investors.
It is also creating huge wealth for the baby boomer generation with inflation giving them a retirement egg.

The politics of recent times has been dominated by left, right, etc but in future it will be more generational with wealth held by the older generations (house inflation, better pensions, retiring earlier) while the younger generation have poor job security, never own their home, and other possibilities like enforced pension and health insurance enrolment.

It is surprising that no political movement has emerged on this yet.

snotboogie

Grim enough:

https://twitter.com/alanhealy/status/1116833542451941376?s=21

voluntary

snotboogie wrote: »

Grim enough:

https://twitter.com/alanhealy/status/1116833542451941376?s=21

The shockwave has passed Dublin and now reached Cork?

el Fenomeno

Never been to Cork, is Ballinacollig a particularly in demand area or something? What would be it's Dublin equivalent?

snotboogie

el Fenomeno wrote: »

Never been to Cork, is Ballinacollig a particularly in demand area or something? What would be it's Dublin equivalent?

Middle class area, 20k population, has two big employers in Dell and VMware, essentially contiguous with the city, very close to CIT, average to decent shopping. Something like Sandyford scaled down to Cork?

q85dw7osi4lebg

If there's 35 queuing overnight then they have priced them too low!

Wanderer78

Tigerandahalf wrote:

It is definitely something that is costing the average person a lot. There needs to be a discussion on the price of housing/land and a constitutional right to a home.

A land value tax would be a good start

Tigerandahalf wrote:

It is surprising that no political movement has emerged on this yet.

Amazed, but I think it ll happen at some stage, when the younger generations have enough of it, It's starting in other countries though

Maurice Yeltsin

snotboogie wrote: »

Grim enough:

https://twitter.com/alanhealy/status/1116833542451941376?s=21

And good luck to them. I've never understood what people think is so bad about this. People queuing to buy ugly new houses at 380k= less competition for more moderately priced homes built between the 50's and 2000s when I'm looking to buy.

cunnifferous wrote: »

Interesting article in the Irish Times. Certainly points to the fact that we've reached the peak of the market again, in terms of what people can afford to pay.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/dublin-house-prices-more-than-nine-times-the-average-salary-1.3858878?mode=amp

It's easy to forget that a significant percentage of the population live in counties where a single person on a very modest salary (as low as 20k in some counties) can purchase a three bedroom home in good condition. There really needs to be a another look taken at why social housing provision is even needed in certain counties for families with an employed breadwinner.