Property Market 2019

Ray Palmer

Assetbacked wrote: »

I wouldn't be so sure on this. US and Chinese trade war could escalate which would spook the markets big time. Hard Brexit is far more likely now than a few weeks ago given a new referendum is not on the cards.

All good news for those renting in any event if asset owners are hit, it would certainly help pick up the slack from the past few years.

It would be devastating to those who rent in that event. You think their is a shortage now, what do you think would happen if there was another 5 years of not building?

If there is a shock investment stops with some also leaving the market. The end result would be less to rent and more people looking to rent.

People really need to understand things can get much much worse and there is no great karmic equalization.

beaz2018

Ray Palmer wrote: »

It would be devastating to those who rent in that event. You think their is a shortage now, what do you think would happen if there was another 5 years of not building?

If there is a shock investment stops with some also leaving the market. The end result would be less to rent and more people looking to rent.

People really need to understand things can get much much worse and there is no great karmic equalization.

Rent was very cheap during the recession though?

Samuel T. Cogley

beaz2018 wrote: »

Rent was very cheap during the recession though?

There was a lot more supply during the recession.

Ray Palmer

beaz2018 wrote: »

Ray Palmer wrote: »

It would be devastating to those who rent in that event. You think their is a shortage now, what do you think would happen if there was another 5 years of not building?

If there is a shock investment stops with some also leaving the market. The end result would be less to rent and more people looking to rent.

People really need to understand things can get much much worse and there is no great karmic equalization.

Rent was very cheap during the recession though?

Because there was an over supply of housing causing property prices to drop. This time around we would be compounding a shortage of housing.

beaz2018

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Because there was an over supply of housing causing property prices to drop. This time around we would be compounding a shortage of housing.

If this supposed massive recession is coming I presume there would be mass emigration again though?

Ray Palmer

beaz2018 wrote: »

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Because there was an over supply of housing causing property prices to drop. This time around we would be compounding a shortage of housing.

If this supposed massive recession is coming I presume there would be mass emigration again though?

You are making a lot of assumptions. If there is a massive recession it will be world wide. Where are they going to emigrate to?
There will still be a housing shortage and it would get worse with nothing being built. How do you think we got into the situation we are in now? It is simply a result of not building caused by fear and lack of funding. Be much worse if happened again given the current situation

Roisin76

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

There was a lot more supply during the recession.

There's more supply today than in the 2007/2008. Houses have been built since then.

There's however many more people, as immigrants come for work, Irishmen who emigrated come back (as there's are jobs now).

In case of big job losses everything will swap again, take it as a given.

Samuel T. Cogley

Roisin76 wrote: »

There's more supply today than in the 2007/2008. Houses have been built since then.

There's however many more people, as immigrants come for work, Irishmen who emigrated come back (as there's are jobs now).

In case of big job losses everything will swap again, take it as a given.

:pac: Supply of available units then.

Interested Observer

Demand is way higher and there's far more credit available.

awec

The crash, when rents also nose-dived, was not preceded by a pretty severe housing shortage.

alwald

My view of the current housing market, based on at least 1 year of monitoring Daft/My house, the PPR register and viewings in Co Dublin for properties sub 275k, both new and 2nd hand, is:
- Asking prices depend on the area and the estate agent, some estate agents like to advertise a property at a low price to generate interest and others prefer a high price.
- Well looked after properties, with a good BER, décent location and fairly priced are selling really fast from the moment they are advertised (4 to 6 weeks in most instances)
- properties advertised with a high price, new and second hand, regardless of their location (Castelnock, Adamstown, Lucan, Clonee...) Aren't selling fast. There are newly built properties in these areas that have been advertised for few months/weeks and still not sold out.
- Properties in less desired areas like Finglas, Tyrrelstown, Balbriggan, D10, Ballymun...are sitting in Daft since last year and still not sold - unless not removed by the estate agent.
- Finally banks are less eager to taking risk and are certainly not handing out mortgages like pancakes anymore.

I would like to reiterate that the above is based on my own observations over the last year or so and are by no means a representation of the property market in Co Dublin as a whole.

Bigmac1euro

alwald wrote: »

My view of the current housing market, based on at least 1 year of monitoring Daft/My house, the PPR register and viewings in Co Dublin for properties sub 275k, both new and 2nd hand, is:
- Asking prices depend on the area and the estate agent, some estate agents like to advertise a property at a low price to generate interest and others prefer a high price.
- Well looked after properties, with a good BER, décent location and fairly priced are selling really fast from the moment they are advertised (4 to 6 weeks in most instances)
- properties advertised with a high price, new and second hand, regardless of their location (Castelnock, Adamstown, Lucan, Clonee...) Aren't selling fast. There are newly built properties in these areas that have been advertised for few months/weeks and still not sold out.
- Properties in less desired areas like Finglas, Tyrrelstown, Balbriggan, D10, Ballymun...are sitting in Daft since last year and still not sold - unless not removed by the estate agent.
- Finally banks are less eager to taking risk and are certainly not handing out mortgages like pancakes anymore.

I would like to reiterate that the above is based on my own observations over the last year or so and are by no means a representation of the property market in Co Dublin as a whole.

Watching the market pretty closely myself the last year and what you say seems pretty accurate.

whatever76

alwald wrote: »

My view of the current housing market, based on at least 1 year of monitoring Daft/My house, the PPR register and viewings in Co Dublin for properties sub 275k, both new and 2nd hand, is:
- Asking prices depend on the area and the estate agent, some estate agents like to advertise a property at a low price to generate interest and others prefer a high price.
- Well looked after properties, with a good BER, décent location and fairly priced are selling really fast from the moment they are advertised (4 to 6 weeks in most instances)
- properties advertised with a high price, new and second hand, regardless of their location (Castelnock, Adamstown, Lucan, Clonee...) Aren't selling fast. There are newly built properties in these areas that have been advertised for few months/weeks and still not sold out.
- Properties in less desired areas like Finglas, Tyrrelstown, Balbriggan, D10, Ballymun...are sitting in Daft since last year and still not sold - unless not removed by the estate agent.
- Finally banks are less eager to taking risk and are certainly not handing out mortgages like pancakes anymore.

I would like to reiterate that the above is based on my own observations over the last year or so and are by no means a representation of the property market in Co Dublin as a whole.

I also concur to this view for Cork City - there is a big squeeze in the ~300k bracket and I believe prices are approx. 30-40K over priced that are under this threshold ( again this is my opinion) . No bargains or no value to be had regardless of the condition/area . it be interesting to see how this pans out as new builds come on board !

Dolbhad

whatever76 wrote: »

I also concur to this view for Cork City - there is a big squeeze in the ~300k bracket and I believe prices are approx. 30-40K over priced that are under this threshold ( again this is my opinion) . No bargains or no value to be had regardless of the condition/area . it be interesting to see how this pans out as new builds come on board !

I agree with Cork City - I did expect new builds to impact more but since they are going up 15k-20k on each phase, it’s not helping as much. I do find asking prices have gone up from last year but can sit a bit longer depending on the estate or area. I have heard of cases where asking price is met in Cork with no higher bids but sellers are not taking asking and are willing to wait it out. But I agree on the over Price in that market. Was looking at houses in certain areas last year - older estate so work is needed in all houses - that were 230-235k. One on market now for 280k and your thinking it can’t shift for that as work is needed.

The_Conductor

Anyone in the Lucan/Adamstown/Clondalkin area notice a staggering rise in the amount of secondhand property being put on the market in the last few weeks? Some of it is quite highend stuff- in mature areas?
Its almost like a lot of people are planning on getting out of the area.

If I were retired- and in a position to move- I know I'd be doing the same (and I've lived here since I was a kid).

In addition- I see an increase in the vacancy rate on commercial units- e.g. Main Street Lucan now has 5 vacant units- which has never happened before (and sales of Griffin's Pharmacy at the bridge has fallen through twice- and they've now switched estate agent, Carey's Newsagent has been vacant for over a year despite selling at auction, Ponto Nuovo Italian restaurant- is closed for last 16-18 months and advertised as a going concern (which it most certainly isn't), Toolans betting shop next door to Bank of Ireland closed a few weeks ago, The IT shop next to the Garda Barracks- is still closed/vacant etc etc

The only thing busy about Lucan village- is the amount of traffic insisting on going through it.

MAJJ

The_Conductor wrote: »

Anyone in the Lucan/Adamstown/Clondalkin area notice a staggering rise in the amount of secondhand property being put on the market in the last few weeks? Some of it is quite highend stuff- in mature areas?
Its almost like a lot of people are planning on getting out of the area.

If I were retired- and in a position to move- I know I'd be doing the same (and I've lived here since I was a kid).

Am seeing that in Dundrum in mature settled areas, most I've seen on sale in long time.

Sheeps

I think the market is finally just picking up because we've reached the ceiling of affordability. People are realising the game is up and offloading. I've noticed a lot of people selling properties now in need of complete refurbishment, which indicates they were hanging on to them for the return.

whatever76

Dolbhad wrote: »

I agree with Cork City - I did expect new builds to impact more but since they are going up 15k-20k on each phase, it’s not helping as much. I do find asking prices have gone up from last year but can sit a bit longer depending on the estate or area. I have heard of cases where asking price is met in Cork with no higher bids but sellers are not taking asking and are willing to wait it out. But I agree on the over Price in that market. Was looking at houses in certain areas last year - older estate so work is needed in all houses - that were 230-235k. One on market now for 280k and your thinking it can’t shift for that as work is needed.

Ha been there and walked away ; house still for sale ! This is prime example of a do upper way over priced … its a nice park but 320 k … :eek: SNIP

Good to see other people observations same as mine on this as this is all just observation for me and no deep analysis

Twenty Grand

whatever76 wrote: »

I also concur to this view for Cork City - there is a big squeeze in the ~300k bracket and I believe prices are approx. 30-40K over priced that are under this threshold ( again this is my opinion) . No bargains or no value to be had regardless of the condition/area . it be interesting to see how this pans out as new builds come on board !

You'd be hard pressed to buy anything in the sub 250k bracket in Cork, and you have everything, from decent semi D's to mouldy ruins in the 250-400k bracket.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Seen some in Dublin 8 overpriced and also Dublin 5 Raheny/Harmonstown that aren't moving.

cameramonkey

whatever76 wrote: »

Ha been there and walked away ; house still for sale ! This is prime example of a do upper way over priced … its a nice park but 320 k … :eek: <SNIP>

Good to see other people observations same as mine on this as this is all just observation for me and no deep analysis

It says it was only first listed 11 days ago. Is that true?

whatever76

cameramonkey wrote: »

It says it was only first listed 11 days ago. Is that true?

Cant say for sure but it only just came to my attention the last week and I do searches quite often for turners cross

Graham

Mod Note

folks, I've snipped the link to that specific house. It's not particularly fair on the owners to be singled out here.

cameramonkey

whatever76 wrote: »

Cant say for sure but it only just came to my attention the last week and I do searches quite often for turners cross

i suppose if the house has been on the market for a week they would not accept your offer and close the sale. It would be very unusual, they always wait around for a few bidders.


In my experience in Dublin last year houses were going for between 10 and 15% above asking price in the area I was looking.

whatever76

Graham wrote: »

Mod Note

folks, I've snipped the link to that specific house. It's not particularly fair on the owners to be singled out here.

Oh sorry Graham I didn't think of that …

alwald

The_Conductor wrote: »

Anyone in the Lucan/Adamstown/Clondalkin area notice a staggering rise in the amount of secondhand property being put on the market in the last few weeks? Some of it is quite highend stuff- in mature areas?
Its almost like a lot of people are planning on getting out of the area.

I haven't been looking at Clondalkin but I agree with your comments on Lucan/Adamstown as there are lots of second hand/newly built properties, close to the Dart station, with a BER of B3 or more, advertied by some of the most well known estate agents, which are under 275K (Mostly 2 or 3 beds) that aren't selling or selling very slowly.

Estate agents have been calling me and sending me emails asking if I am interested to view some properties on which I emailed them few weeks/months ago asking a couple of questions.

I also viewed 2 properties this month in Dublin both in good areas and within 20 min by Dart from the city center and I was stunned to realise that I was the only one there.

Auctioneera and beagelbid are 2 websites that show the current bids and you would be amazed at the number of properties that aren't receiving a single bid.

We are witnessing a different housing market since the second half of 2018 as the rush to buy that we witnessed in 2016/2017 is no longer here....having said that there was some bargains back then in comparison with now where most properties are either overpriced or in need of renovation which will require a good bit of money.

Are there any figures showing the percentage of first time buyers who availed of the FTB scheme? I would be curious to see the trend over the last 2 or 3 years as the new builds aren't selling that fast anymore.

Bbborris

The_Conductor wrote: »

Anyone in the Lucan/Adamstown/Clondalkin area notice a staggering rise in the amount of secondhand property being put on the market in the last few weeks? Some of it is quite highend stuff- in mature areas?
Its almost like a lot of people are planning on getting out of the area.

If I were retired- and in a position to move- I know I'd be doing the same (and I've lived here since I was a kid).

In addition- I see an increase in the vacancy rate on commercial units- e.g. Main Street Lucan now has 5 vacant units- which has never happened before (and sales of Griffin's Pharmacy at the bridge has fallen through twice- and they've now switched estate agent, Carey's Newsagent has been vacant for over a year despite selling at auction, Ponto Nuovo Italian restaurant- is closed for last 16-18 months and advertised as a going concern (which it most certainly isn't), Toolans betting shop next door to Bank of Ireland closed a few weeks ago, The IT shop next to the Garda Barracks- is still closed/vacant etc etc

The only thing busy about Lucan village- is the amount of traffic insisting on going through it.

I'm a culchie currently living in Lucan. I Love the area (I'm close to N4), and I'm activily looking to buy here (northside of N4 preferably), but I get the feeling Lucan doesn't have the greatest of reputations. There's an apartment close to me for sale over a year and my neighbour just cannot sell it. There are always plenty of houses for sale on Daft too.

I have noticed more houses close to the new builds in Adamstown going up for sale. Maybe worried about the new influx of social housing.

kippy

Bbborris wrote: »

I'm a culchie currently living in Lucan. I Love the area (I'm close to N4), and I'm activily looking to buy here (northside of N4 preferably), but I get the feeling Lucan doesn't have the greatest of reputations. There's an apartment close to me for sale over a year and my neighbour just cannot sell it. There are always plenty of houses for sale on Daft too.

I have noticed more houses close to the new builds in Adamstown going up for sale. Maybe worried about the new influx of social housing.

Lucan is a big area. Accessibility and catchment areas for schools seem to be a big thing that makes a major difference in price points.

Achasanai

The_Conductor wrote: »

Lucan/Adamstown/Clondalkin

MAJJ wrote: »

Am seeing that in Dundrum in mature settled areas, most I've seen on sale in long time.

What would the reasons be? I would've thought those areas would be considered miles apart in terms of prices etc.

Dolbhad

alwald wrote: »

We are witnessing a different housing market since the second half of 2018 as the rush to buy that we witnessed in 2016/2017 is no longer here....having said that there was some bargains back then in comparison with now where most properties are either overpriced or in need of renovation which will require a good bit of money.

Are there any figures showing the percentage of first time buyers who availed of the FTB scheme? I would be curious to see the trend over the last 2 or 3 years as the new builds aren't selling that fast anymore.

I completely agree on that point in first paragraph. However maybe Cork is behind but our new builds are increasing 15k-20k still on phases and had overnight queuing for Clonara and Heatherfield recently. I would think the potential for HTB not being extended behind 2019 puts a fire under new build still