Property Market 2019

Sheeps

Amirani wrote: »

Anyone with half a brain could look at CSO demography statistics and realise that demand for 4/5 bed houses is likely to be declining.

I think he's doing deeper analysis than that. I'm just saying he's been credible so far on his analysis on the housing market.

https://twitter.com/paddycosgrave/status/1069592302811787264?lang=en

His twitter feed has a lot of good, if slightly sporadic stuff on housing.

Mad_maxx

We could quite likely see a 20% correction if we ( usa or UK) entered recession but forget about something like 2008 - 2012, those are once per century events, we had the worst housing crash in the Western world, everything hit us

kippy

Reversal wrote: »

There is one thing that this time has in common with 2007? The aggression displayed by invested parties towards "naysayers"...

What aggression?


Let's be honest, the term Micro Crash is as nonsensical as it gets.

beauf

Amirani wrote: »

Anyone with half a brain could look at CSO demography statistics and realise that demand for 4/5 bed houses is likely to be declining.

I think the demand is there. It's just they are no longer affordable by most people. So they aren't selling.

Maybe you could share what you've read in the cso statistics to save the rest of us having to look them up. Or at least link to any reports on what you are suggesting.

beauf

Reversal wrote: »

There is one thing that this time has in common with 2007? The aggression displayed by invested parties towards "naysayers"...

What's an invested party?

Sheeps

kippy wrote: »

What aggression?


Let's be honest, the term Micro Crash is as nonsensical as it gets.

It's not really. People have different spending habbits in the market. It's not really a contested point that certain parts of the market are dropping at 10+% per year.

Reversal

beauf wrote: »

What's an invested party?

Someone who may have recently purchased maybe?

Reversal

kippy wrote: »

What aggression?


Let's be honest, the term Micro Crash is as nonsensical as it gets.

The attack on commentators character when all that was being discussed was the content of a tweet

beauf

Reversal wrote: »

Someone who may have recently purchased maybe?

Makes no difference to them they are locked in for the next couple of decades. They've also probably committed to an area and life choice.

I don't think you've thought it through tbh...

cameramonkey

I suppose people who want property prices and rent to remain high would be put out by the Cosgrave prediction. It's obvious then that they would rubbish him and his methods without examining those methods.It's a bias they have, you could say that they were invested in keeping prices up and anything to counter that is a threat to their outlook.
You could say the same for people who want prices to fall, they may want to buy a property and are hoping that prices moderate or drop so their bias kicks in and they welcome his prediction.

awec

Sheeps wrote: »

I think he's doing deeper analysis than that. I'm just saying he's been credible so far on his analysis on the housing market.

https://twitter.com/paddycosgrave/status/1069592302811787264?lang=en

His twitter feed has a lot of good, if slightly sporadic stuff on housing.

It's Paddy Cosgrave.

He's a complete bluffer. An egomaniac.

cameramonkey

beauf wrote: »

Makes no difference to them they are locked in for the next couple of decades. They've also probably committed to an area and life choice.

I don't think you've thought it through tbh...

You know thats not true.

awec

Reversal wrote: »

The attack on commentators character when all that was being discussed was the content of a tweet

The validity of the content of the tweet is pretty relevant.

If Ronald McDonald tweeted tomorrow that Ireland is set for another period of rapid property price growth we'd hardly take it seriously either.

I mean, I am sure there is good analysis out there. But Paddy Cosgrave and his magic AI is a little too silly.

cameramonkey wrote: »

I suppose people who want property prices and rent to remain high would be put out by the Cosgrave prediction. It's obvious then that they would rubbish him and his methods without examining those methods.It's a bias they have, you could say that they were invested in keeping prices up and anything to counter that is a threat to their outlook.
You could say the same for people who want prices to fall, they may want to buy a property and are hoping that prices moderate or drop so their bias kicks in and they welcome his prediction.

What methods?

He doesn't tell us his markets. His tweets are marketing material rather than analysis of anything. "Look at us, we have lots of data and used AI".

beauf

Sheeps wrote: »

It's not really. People have different spending habbits in the market. It's not really a contested point that certain parts of the market are dropping at 10+% per year.

Cherry picking very specific parts of the market I would be careful not to assume that will happen to all sections of the market.

Sheeps

awec wrote: »

It's Paddy Cosgrave.

He's a complete bluffer. An egomaniac.

Thanks for the update about your personal feelings towards Paddy Cosgrave but I'm actually not all that interested in your opinion of his personaility flaws. It's his analysis of data that I'm interesed in, which has so far been pretty good.

OwlsZat

awec wrote: »

It's Paddy Cosgrave.

He's a complete bluffer. An egomaniac.

You're right. Prejudice the information and dismiss it. It's different this time.

awec

Sheeps wrote: »

Thanks for the update about your personal feelings towards Paddy Cosgrave but I'm actually not all that interested in your opinion of his personaility flaws. It's his analysis of data that I'm interesed in, which has so far been pretty good.

How have you verified that it has been good?

What is it about his method that you think makes his view worth listening to?

awec

OwlsZat wrote: »

You're right. Prejudice the information and dismissed it. It's different this time.

I don't have any information. He hasn't released any information.

He has posted some numbers, and hasn't told us how he came up with them.

If he releases his method, I would be delighted to look at it. Until then, pinch of salt please.



I looked at a billion data points (which, by the way, in the data world is not a lot). Came up with some fancy AI. Next year, prices will rise 25%.

See what I mean?

Sheeps

awec wrote: »

How have you verified that it has been good?

Because over the last two years his predictions have been widley reported on as being the market status after he's made them. I'm not saying he's a a wizzard, or that he's always right or can see the future. Just that he's been speculating about the property market quite accurately and in line with what Ronan Lyons etc have been saying, just a lot earlier.

awec

Sheeps wrote: »

Because over the last two years his predictions have been widley reported on as being the market status after he's made them. I'm not saying he's a a wizzard, or that he's always right or can see the future. Just that he's been speculating about the property market quite accurately and in line with what Ronan Lyons etc have been saying, just a lot earlier.

Which predictions? Can you be more specific?

Sheeps

awec wrote: »

Which predictions? Can you be more specific?

He has more or less quite acurately hinted at the way the property market might unfold over the last year and a half.

I'd rather not have to search back through twitter to end up defending someone I don't particularily care to defend. I've no interest in being proved right and I don't win anything for deceiving you, just thought it was interesting enough to share. Take it or leave it.

awec

Sheeps wrote: »

He has more or less quite acurately hinted at the way the property market might unfold over the last year and a half.

I'd rather not have to search back through twitter to end up defending someone I don't particularily care to defend. I've no interest in being proved right and I don't win anything for deceiving you, just thought it was interesting enough to share. Take it or leave it.

I'm not having a go at you.

But this is the beauty of these people commentating on the economy. If they're wrong, nobody remembers what they said anyway (well, unless it was really stupid). If they're right, someone will remember and they'll claim they were a genius, despite the fact it was nothing more than pure dumb luck.

He says there are multi year declines ahead, and he bigs himself up by trying to impress us all with his fancy tech for figuring this out.

I can GUARANTEE you that there will be declines in property prices ahead. Guarantee. Without any shadow of a doubt prices will eventually come down. You don't need any "fancy AI" or "billion data points" to come up with this. This is just how the market works, eventually supply will exceed demand and prices will come down.

But I don't know when. It could be next month, it could be next year, it could be 5 years from now. I don't know. Neither does Paddy Cosgrave. Not a notion. If it were as simple as getting a bunch of data and looking at trends then we'd never have anything to worry about.

I don't think there's anyone in Ireland who doesn't know that prices will eventually come down. The only thing up for debate is when it will happen, and how much we'll see them come down.

Personally, I believe we'll see single digit percentage point drops in the short-to-medium term. I definitely wouldn't buy property in Ireland as a short-term investment right now. Buying a home though is a whole other ball game.

Sheeps

awec wrote: »

I'm not having a go at you.

But this is the beauty of these people commentating on the economy. If they're wrong, nobody remembers what they said anyway (well, unless it was really stupid). If they're right, someone will remember and they'll claim they were a genius, despite the fact it was nothing more than pure dumb luck.

He says there are multi year declines ahead, and he bigs himself up by trying to impress us all with his fancy tech for figuring this out.

I can GUARANTEE you that there will be declines in property prices ahead. Guarantee. Without any shadow of a doubt prices will eventually come down. You don't need any "fancy AI" or "billion data points" to come up with this. This is just how the market works, eventually supply will exceed demand and prices will come down.

But I don't know when. It could be next month, it could be next year, it could be 5 years from now. I don't know. Neither does Paddy Cosgrave. Not a notion. If it were as simple as getting a bunch of data and looking at trends then we'd never have anything to worry about.

I don't think there's anyone in Ireland who doesn't know that prices will eventually come down. The only thing up for debate is when it will happen, and how much we'll see them come down.

Personally, I believe we'll see single digit percentage point drops in the short-to-medium term. I definitely wouldn't buy property in Ireland as a short-term investment right now. Buying a home though is a whole other ball game.

I agree, it's anybody's guess and It's something David McWilliams aluded to in this latest article regarding greek mythology whilst simultaneously leaving his predictions open to be right in any circumstance.

lawred2

Sheeps wrote: »

I agree, it's anybody's guess and It's something David McWilliams aluded to in this latest article regarding greek mythology whilst simultaneously leaving his predictions open to be right in any circumstance.

but hang on - a few posts ago it was data driven hedonic analysis...

so which is it? credible data analytics or guesswork?

Reversal

beauf wrote: »

Makes no difference to them they are locked in for the next couple of decades. They've also probably committed to an area and life choice.

I don't think you've thought it through tbh...

I'm not saying it's a logical response, rather an emotional one. Confirmation bias is a real thing. It's human nature to look for information that agrees with your world view and reject information that doesn't. Like every decision, every single person who bought a house in the last 12 months will be unknowingly suffering from confirmation bias to differing degrees to ease any anxieties about their choices. As a result, it's only natural to reject evidence that they may be the ones who bought at the peak this time. You're right though, it actually doesn't matter if you're going to be living in your home for the next 30 years.

Dolbhad

hmmm wrote: »

This is the first I've ever heard from him on property prices, would be interested to know more. It doesn't look like anything earth shattering in terms of an observation, we can all read the CSO data.

Of all the commentators on the Irish property market, Ronan Lyons is probably the only one I personally really listen to as he seems to draw good sensible conclusions from his data, and I remember he produced really good stuff before the crash. All the rest of the usual commentators have been right some times, wrong other times, and very wrong at particular times, and like the sound of their own voices a bit too much.

I agree on Ronan Lyons. I have to do some CPDs for work and currently am doing his trinity cpd on property economics and finding it excellent. I had only come across him recently enough so didn’t know if he was any good.

Sheeps

lawred2 wrote: »

but hang on - a few posts ago it was data driven hedonic analysis...

so which is it? credible data analytics or guesswork?

I said his guess work was credible, and that it wasn't hedonic which was why it was crude. I said his track record was good. Ultimately it's all guesswork.

beauf

Reversal wrote: »

.... As a result, it's only natural to reject evidence that they may be the ones who bought at the peak this time. You're right though, it actually doesn't matter if you're going to be living in your home for the next 30 years.

I think you are looking at the wrong group. People who have recently bought to live somewhere don't care. They are done with the market for the next period of their life. How often do most people but and sell a house in apartment. Not very often.

The only people who care are those buying and selling for themselves or those who have a related business. Those are the people who might have a distorted view of reality. The

A lot of people have seen this before. They won't be phased by the market slowing down. Especially if they aren't selling or buying.

beauf

Sheeps wrote: »

I said his guess work was credible, and that it wasn't hedonic which was why it was crude. I said his track record was good. Ultimately it's all guesswork.

You don't need to guess. You can see the pattern in the prices. Talk to any estate agent they all saying the same thing.

Lumen

Predictions are pointless unless they're specific enough to be testable, otherwise who is to say whether they proved
right or wrong?

And research is useless unless it's conducted openly, and therefore checkable and reproducible. "Because AI" is really weak.

This is basic stuff.