Property Market 2019

Sheeps

Humour Me wrote: »

Would the savings from the further out house be used to cover your commuting costs? Personally location needs to be balanced between cost of accommodation, cost of commuting to work 5 days a week and commuting time.

It may do now, but realistically unless you're driving an electric car commuting is going to become a lot more expensive over the next decade as we look set on increasing our carbon tax.

Twenty Grand

The more I look the more I can see an artificial floor on prices where I am.

You'd expect a fairly even spread of properties, with process increasing with quality and location , but there's serious bunching especially around the 200-250k.
There absolutely everything in this bracket, the good, the bad and the ugly. I presume theyre just priced at the max that anyone on an average wage can afford.

Above 250 things even out a little.

I was expecting good value for a fixer upper around the 200k mark, but there's nothing but small cramped houses on tiny lots. There's much better value if I just stretch to 300 and buy a finished house, 4 bed, two story on an acre.

Madness.

cruizer101

An update on a previous post re a terraced house in walkinstown with 9 units in it and had been extended to completely cover in the back garden.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057942035&page=126

It seems Dublin Rental Investigator reported it to DCC who came back to say as the structure is over 7 years old it is now statue barred and there is nothing that can be done. You would think something can be done from a safety point of view even. Really is a disgrace that it can continue to function like that.

https://www.broadsheet.ie/2019/06/07/the-file-has-now-been-closed/#comments

Wexforllion

Twenty Grand wrote: »

The more I look the more I can see an artificial floor on prices where I am.

You'd expect a fairly even spread of properties, with process increasing with quality and location , but there's serious bunching especially around the 200-250k.
There absolutely everything in this bracket, the good, the bad and the ugly. I presume theyre just priced at the max that anyone on an average wage can afford.

Above 250 things even out a little.

I was expecting good value for a fixer upper around the 200k mark, but there's nothing but small cramped houses on tiny lots. There's much better value if I just stretch to 300 and buy a finished house, 4 bed, two story on an acre.

Madness.

It goes for brackets all the way up.

400k-500k great.

If you can go to 600k-700k there are incredible bargains. Who can afford that though.

The bracket of 250k-350k is most squeezed I think and there is some terrible value there.

Assetbacked

In the next ten years + it would appear that property prices will drop significantly at amounts above €500k as there will be a massive shortage of buyers able to pay that much (unless the Central Bank relaxes - and it shouldn't - the mortgage lending rules).

Longer term, the State is going to have to provide a lot more social housing and State pensions for the future old people who end up being caught renting in the gouging irish rental market for half their working lives.

riddles

Assetbacked wrote: »

In the next ten years + it would appear that property prices will drop significantly at amounts above €500k as there will be a massive shortage of buyers able to pay that much (unless the Central Bank relaxes - and it shouldn't - the mortgage lending rules).

Longer term, the State is going to have to provide a lot more social housing and State pensions for the future old people who end up being caught renting in the gouging irish rental market for half their working lives.

There won’t be the current old age pension in 20-25 years time when the tax payers ratio drops from the current 5-1 to then 2-1.

The_Conductor

Assetbacked wrote: »

In the next ten years + it would appear that property prices will drop significantly at amounts above €500k as there will be a massive shortage of buyers able to pay that much (unless the Central Bank relaxes - and it shouldn't - the mortgage lending rules).

Longer term, the State is going to have to provide a lot more social housing and State pensions for the future old people who end up being caught renting in the gouging irish rental market for half their working lives.

There will always a cohort of prospective buyers- who are in a position to buy higher end units- however, its entirely plausible that properties that are 800k-1m could drop back to 500-600k in the not too distant future. Its also possible that expensive estates which might once have been worth millions- will be unsaleable (as Shane Ross has discovered trying to sell his home place).

Longer term- the manner in which both central government and the local authorities got out of the provision of social housing- is going to have to have a complete 180. Ideally it would be accompanied by an increase in affordable housing to 15-20% of new developments- and there would be no opt out clause for developers to bunch affordable housing in estates other than in the one they are currently constructing.

There are areas like the greater Lucan area- which are soaking up improbable numbers of social housing units- from other parts of SDCC that the developers do not want sullying more premium developments- this is madness- and is already leading to increasingly toxic conditions for residents and serious antisocial issues. This is going to be one of the legacy issues that requires some sort of a resolution.

Outside of that- we will need considerable high rise high density affordable accommodation in our main urban centres. We *need* this more than anything else- and if the local authorities aren't willing to facilitate it- they need to have the powers to resist such developments taken from them.

As for state pensions- as we're all aware- the age at which COAP (Contributory Old Age Pensions) vest is increasing incrementally. It will be 68 by 2030- and is online to be 70 by 2040. The dependency ratio- that is the number of workers for each person who is either too old, infirm or unable to work for another reason- is falling from 5:1 to 2:1 *in the next 15 years*. Its an elephant in the corner that no-one wants to talk about- and believe it or not- we're one of the luckier countries- our pensions time bomb is going to explode a decade after most of the rest of Europe- as our population demographics are such that our bulge of retirees isn't going to hit the system until that time.

Its entirely foreseeable that we will not have a contributory old age pension system- as it currently exists- within the next 25 years. Its entirely possible that people will be encouraged to work for life- as happens in the US- older people may take menial service sector jobs, packing bags in Walmart, cashiers etc- to make their meagre savings stretch to enable them to meet their rent and other utilities. This is what we are looking at here. Yet- no-one wants to discuss it.

We are already at a crunch- where we do not have sufficient nursing home spaces for those who are no longer capable of caring for themselves- and the 'Fair Deal' scheme- bankrupts its annual allocation improbably earlier each year- our 2019 allocation was fully used by April this year- much to the shock of the Minister.

Our systems for dealing with our elderly- are being wallpapered over- nothing is being dealt is- its all being booted down the road rather than dealt with- as its politically toxic to suggest we can't provide the current system to today's never mind tomorrow's pensioners. Look at FF during the week- grandstanding that it was unfair to limit any future pension increases to the rate of inflation- and demanding increases of 4-5 times the rate of inflation. Sure it buys grey votes- but its exceptionally poor planning- and wholly unsustainable.

We need to sit down and have a discourse on where our country is going- grandiose expenditure of billions on vanity projects- is not where we should be- planning for a future where we have to live within our means- is.

JJJackal

The_Conductor wrote: »

There will always a cohort of prospective buyers- who are in a position to buy higher end units- however, its entirely plausible that properties that are 800k-1m could drop back to 500-600k in the not too distant future. Its also possible that expensive estates which might once have been worth millions- will be unsaleable (as Shane Ross has discovered trying to sell his home place).

Longer term- the manner in which both central government and the local authorities got out of the provision of social housing- is going to have to have a complete 180. Ideally it would be accompanied by an increase in affordable housing to 15-20% of new developments- and there would be no opt out clause for developers to bunch affordable housing in estates other than in the one they are currently constructing.

There are areas like the greater Lucan area- which are soaking up improbable numbers of social housing units- from other parts of SDCC that the developers do not want sullying more premium developments- this is madness- and is already leading to increasingly toxic conditions for residents and serious antisocial issues. This is going to be one of the legacy issues that requires some sort of a resolution.

Outside of that- we will need considerable high rise high density affordable accommodation in our main urban centres. We *need* this more than anything else- and if the local authorities aren't willing to facilitate it- they need to have the powers to resist such developments taken from them.

As for state pensions- as we're all aware- the age at which COAP (Contributory Old Age Pensions) vest is increasing incrementally. It will be 68 by 2030- and is online to be 70 by 2040. The dependency ratio- that is the number of workers for each person who is either too old, infirm or unable to work for another reason- is falling from 5:1 to 2:1 *in the next 15 years*. Its an elephant in the corner that no-one wants to talk about- and believe it or not- we're one of the luckier countries- our pensions time bomb is going to explode a decade after most of the rest of Europe- as our population demographics are such that our bulge of retirees isn't going to hit the system until that time.

Its entirely foreseeable that we will not have a contributory old age pension system- as it currently exists- within the next 25 years. Its entirely possible that people will be encouraged to work for life- as happens in the US- older people may take menial service sector jobs, packing bags in Walmart, cashiers etc- to make their meagre savings stretch to enable them to meet their rent and other utilities. This is what we are looking at here. Yet- no-one wants to discuss it.

We are already at a crunch- where we do not have sufficient nursing home spaces for those who are no longer capable of caring for themselves- and the 'Fair Deal' scheme- bankrupts its annual allocation improbably earlier each year- our 2019 allocation was fully used by April this year- much to the shock of the Minister.

Our systems for dealing with our elderly- are being wallpapered over- nothing is being dealt is- its all being booted down the road rather than dealt with- as its politically toxic to suggest we can't provide the current system to today's never mind tomorrow's pensioners. Look at FF during the week- grandstanding that it was unfair to limit any future pension increases to the rate of inflation- and demanding increases of 4-5 times the rate of inflation. Sure it buys grey votes- but its exceptionally poor planning- and wholly unsustainable.

We need to sit down and have a discourse on where our country is going- grandiose expenditure of billions on vanity projects- is not where we should be- planning for a future where we have to live within our means- is.

The problem of moving from 5 earners to 1 pensioner to 2 earners to 1 pensioner is not an easy fix. The problem here was created by inaction when the future pensioners could by law be required to contribute more to a pension - but no policy was enacted. Enacting a policy now will help current workers.

Trying to do the best for the maximum number of people with limited resources is not easy. I would not like to be a minister

Cal4567

Assetbacked wrote: »

In the next ten years + it would appear that property prices will drop significantly at amounts above €500k as there will be a massive shortage of buyers able to pay that much (unless the Central Bank relaxes - and it shouldn't - the mortgage lending rules).

Longer term, the State is going to have to provide a lot more social housing and State pensions for the future old people who end up being caught renting in the gouging irish rental market for half their working lives.

Agree with this and expect it to happen. We are going to need a large number of housing for an older population. Don't forget, we are also starting from a very low basis. Look at what both the US and UK has - we must be 20-30 years behind.

dorito92

asking those more knowledgeable - prices where i am have increased massively in the last 9 years, places that went for 150k+ are now all 250k+ fpr a 3 bed semi, is it wise to buy now while the prices are at their highest or wait another 1-2 years in the hope they fall? what are the chances of prices falling within 1-2 years? or is this just impossible to predict

Sarn

While it is difficult to predict. If near a city, houses in that price bracket would be in high demand. As long as demand outstrips supply, I would not expect any large drops. Given that a couple on the average wage would be able to get a mortgage under the 3.5 rules for one.

Interested Observer

dorito92 wrote: »

asking those more knowledgeable - prices where i am have increased massively in the last 9 years, places that went for 150k+ are now all 250k+ fpr a 3 bed semi, is it wise to buy now while the prices are at their highest or wait another 1-2 years in the hope they fall? what are the chances of prices falling within 1-2 years? or is this just impossible to predict

It's impossible to predict. Are you buying to live in it long term? If yes and you can afford it now then just go for it imo. How much are you going to spend on rent waiting for prices to drop?

0gac3yjefb5sv7

When people say buy a home that you want to stay in, are we talking 5 years, 20 years, forever?

Blueshoe

riddles wrote: »

There won’t be the current old age pension in 20-25 years time when the tax payers ratio drops from the current 5-1 to then 2-1.

I want my prsi back in that case. Il use it to buy a house

myshirt

Pheonix10 wrote: »

When people say buy a home that you want to stay in, are we talking 5 years, 20 years, forever?

There's the house you need, the house you want, and the house you can afford. Hopefully you will get all three wrapped up into one, but not everyone does.

It's expensive to buy a house between legal fees, survey fees, disruption to your life (maybe you have to double rent for a while while one house sells and you buy another), so basically you want to stay there for 5-7 years minimum to make it worth your while financially. Ignore all this sh't about property ladders. All that is is pass the parcel, ride on the wave, etc etc. The housing market doesn't work like that anymore for short term holds. It was almost like a pyramid scheme. Was bound to fall apart.

The_Conductor

Blueshoe wrote: »

I want my prsi back in that case. Il use it to buy a house

Your PRSI is being used to pay the pensions of today's pensioners. It does not go into a bucket for you, or I, or anyone else- to call on in future. There used to be a scheme whereby PRSI was ringfenced for pensions- and it went into a scheme- a chunk of it paid for today's pensioners- but it was in surplus- well, its been in deficit for quite some time- and the scheme is nearly empty- we will be in a situation whereby PRSI deductions, as they currently stand, do not pay for pensions- *within 3 years*. I.e. taxation other than PRSI is going to be needed to topup pension disbursements within 3 years. We do have lots of other expenditure happening- however, it is no longer going to be the case that pensions are ringfenced from PRSI and other expenditure is from another source.

We have some tough choices ahead of us- unfortunately we are going to have to cut our cloth to suit our means- and some of the choices we are going to have to make are going to be very very toxic. We cannot afford the luxury of generous pensions that today's pensioners have- for the workers of today. People are going to work for longer and longer- and there is going to be an expectation that people will fend for themselves.

Times are going to be very tough for the workers of today- when our time to retire comes.

Blueshoe

The_Conductor wrote: »

Your PRSI is being used to pay the pensions of today's pensioners. It does not go into a bucket for you, or I, or anyone else- to call on in future. There used to be a scheme whereby PRSI was ringfenced for pensions- and it went into a scheme- a chunk of it paid for today's pensioners- but it was in surplus- well, its been in deficit for quite some time- and the scheme is nearly empty- we will be in a situation whereby PRSI deductions, as they currently stand, do not pay for pensions- *within 3 years*. I.e. taxation other than PRSI is going to be needed to topup pension disbursements within 3 years. We do have lots of other expenditure happening- however, it is no longer going to be the case that pensions are ringfenced from PRSI and other expenditure is from another source.

We have some tough choices ahead of us- unfortunately we are going to have to cut our cloth to suit our means- and some of the choices we are going to have to make are going to be very very toxic. We cannot afford the luxury of generous pensions that today's pensioners have- for the workers of today. People are going to work for longer and longer- and there is going to be an expectation that people will fend for themselves.

Times are going to be very tough for the workers of today- when our time to retire comes.

That's a lovely picture to look forward to!
Public sector pensions are too expensive. They need to be the first for a haircut.
Overall social welfare payments should also be snipped. Handing out money to those who don't contribute isn't sustainable. Also I believe I read that around 1 million workers don't pay any income tax. This needs to change.
For a different thread though

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Blueshoe wrote: »

That's a lovely picture to look forward to!
Public sector pensions are too expensive. They need to be the first for a haircut.
Overall social welfare payments should also be snipped. Handing out money to those who don't contribute isn't sustainable. Also I believe I read that around 1 million workers don't pay any income tax. This needs to change.
For a different thread though

When the government that proposes to cut the pension for the younger generation (now) surely they would be slaughtered and it can't happen?

riddles

Pheonix10 wrote: »

When the government that proposes to cut the pension for the younger generation (now) surely they would be slaughtered and it can't happen?

It’s called kicking the can down the road. Our political system deals with trying to deliver short term populism at all cost. Our significant challenges are medium or longer term they remain untouched and not discussed as there are no votes in it. The electorate won’t reward you for dealing with reality.

snotboogie

The_Conductor wrote: »

Your PRSI is being used to pay the pensions of today's pensioners. It does not go into a bucket for you, or I, or anyone else- to call on in future. There used to be a scheme whereby PRSI was ringfenced for pensions- and it went into a scheme- a chunk of it paid for today's pensioners- but it was in surplus- well, its been in deficit for quite some time- and the scheme is nearly empty- we will be in a situation whereby PRSI deductions, as they currently stand, do not pay for pensions- *within 3 years*. I.e. taxation other than PRSI is going to be needed to topup pension disbursements within 3 years. We do have lots of other expenditure happening- however, it is no longer going to be the case that pensions are ringfenced from PRSI and other expenditure is from another source.

We have some tough choices ahead of us- unfortunately we are going to have to cut our cloth to suit our means- and some of the choices we are going to have to make are going to be very very toxic. We cannot afford the luxury of generous pensions that today's pensioners have- for the workers of today. People are going to work for longer and longer- and there is going to be an expectation that people will fend for themselves.

Times are going to be very tough for the workers of today- when our time to retire comes.

I’m wondering how our population increases will affect this, especially since the last census. 65k increase between April 2017 and April 2018, projected to be close to 100k for the year up to April 2019 or in and around 2% year on year increases, those are sub Saharan population trends. We’ll have well over 5 million people by the 2021 census a number that was not meant to be reached until 2031 when the CSO made projections at the start of the decade. We are totally distinct from any European state, save Luxembourg but their increases are purely driven by immigration where as ours is a mix of a high birth rate, returning emigrants and immigration. Automation must be taken into account too, the menial jobs you describe old people doing won’t be there when the current crop in their 20’s and 30’s reach their 60’s and 70’s. I’m not sure if that is a good or a good or a bad thing but it is really difficult to project the labor market 40 or 50 years out.

beauf

The net event is that all the problems will be worse than estimated. People will say that it can't be helped as no can predict these things.

Assetbacked

Now is the time to invest while there is money to be made by the exchequer and if this involves raising tax or/and reducing welfare/pensions then so be it. For example, with Dublin, invest in a proper transport system and turn some land at Dublin Port into a new village with plenty of apartments. For outside of Dublin, capitalise on the fact it is two and a half hours drive/train to Galway, three to Cork, by turning the focus on companies expanding outside of Dublin (by encouraging work from home/flexible working hours by way of example) in order to spread the economic growth fairly.

SirGerryAdams

Judging from articles in the indo the price drop is short lived and prices will rocket again. Glenveagh have essentially sold their 2019 stock already. People say they expect to pay 335k for a house (75k more than usual).

Lumen

The_Conductor wrote: »

We cannot afford the luxury of generous pensions that today's pensioners have- for the workers of today. People are going to work for longer and longer- and there is going to be an expectation that people will fend for themselves.

Times are going to be very tough for the workers of today- when our time to retire comes.

That is not necessarily true, it depends on demographics.

Ireland has a low population density so the simplest political solution is to facilitate immigration of young adults to balance the books.

More productive meatsacks, more tax revenue, more pressure on urban housing, sustained higher prices, boosted income for landlord TDs, inward investment for build-to-let....it's a virtuous circle for Leo, who just has to throw any young whippersnappers into the maw of DHPLG or health.

The_Conductor

Assetbacked wrote: »

Now is the time to invest while there is money to be made by the exchequer and if this involves raising tax or/and reducing welfare/pensions then so be it. For example, with Dublin, invest in a proper transport system and turn some land at Dublin Port into a new village with plenty of apartments. For outside of Dublin, capitalise on the fact it is two and a half hours drive/train to Galway, three to Cork, by turning the focus on companies expanding outside of Dublin (by encouraging work from home/flexible working hours by way of example) in order to spread the economic growth fairly.

The problem with massive public infrastructure projects- is we lack the capacity to deliver them (pretty much at any price). The acknowledged best practice- is to save public infrastructure projects- for the downturns- as they can provide employment opportunities that would not otherwise be available- and massage the effects of a downturn, hopefully ensuring that vital skills and apprenticeships aren't lost- so when the economy is on the up again- we'll be in a position to tool up to meet whatever challenges arise.

During the last downturn- when public expenditure dried up- and private construction was non-existent- our skilled labourers- electricians, carpenters, plumbers etc- emigrated en-mass, and haven't returned (and to be brutally honest- I can't blame them). The opportunities to make a life in Ireland- simply was not there. Now- we have skills shortages- which is adding massively to the costs of any projects- public or private- and is acting as a brake in delivering more housing, alongside largescale grandiose projects- such as the Children's Hospital etc.

You can throw as much money as you like at a project- and it will absorb every single penny you fling at it- but if you have a constraint that money can't solve- such as a finite construction workforce- it doesn't really matter what you spend- you're better off investing in other areas (such as apprenticeships) to try and skill a section of the workforce- rather than simply flinging cash at projects.

riddles

The_Conductor wrote: »

The problem with massive public infrastructure projects- is we lack the capacity to deliver them (pretty much at any price). The acknowledged best practice- is to save public infrastructure projects- for the downturns- as they can provide employment opportunities that would not otherwise be available- and massage the effects of a downturn, hopefully ensuring that vital skills and apprenticeships aren't lost- so when the economy is on the up again- we'll be in a position to tool up to meet whatever challenges arise.

During the last downturn- when public expenditure dried up- and private construction was non-existent- our skilled labourers- electricians, carpenters, plumbers etc- emigrated en-mass, and haven't returned (and to be brutally honest- I can't blame them). The opportunities to make a life in Ireland- simply was not there. Now- we have skills shortages- which is adding massively to the costs of any projects- public or private- and is acting as a brake in delivering more housing, alongside largescale grandiose projects- such as the Children's Hospital etc.

You can throw as much money as you like at a project- and it will absorb every single penny you fling at it- but if you have a constraint that money can't solve- such as a finite construction workforce- it doesn't really matter what you spend- you're better off investing in other areas (such as apprenticeships) to try and skill a section of the workforce- rather than simply flinging cash at projects.

Add in the fact that vested interests means the scoping is usually wrong from the start which makes a positive outcome impossible.

Location of the children's hospital.
Location of the new prison - never to be built in North Dublin
Metro North - extravagant white elephant
Ridiculous off ramps off/on motorways - costing multiples of what they would have originally.
Broadband roll out
Shoe horning tech companies into the heart of dublin - it would have been better to position them outside the M50 in hubs linked to the various motorways with state of the art apartments there but also Luas direct to city centre making Dublin and residential city. It would be easier to manage demand and cost then than the current boom bust cycle which seems to be the accepted norm.

UsBus

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

Judging from articles in the indo the price drop is short lived and prices will rocket again. Glenveagh have essentially sold their 2019 stock already. People say they expect to pay 335k for a house (75k more than usual).

I wouldn't go on anything written in those papers. The incentive is there for them to flog property supplements for as long as possible.

It could be localised but the area I am buying in, (large town, west of Ireland), I have seen a large number of price drops in the last 6 months. I've even seen a number of auctioneers slash prices on a large number of the properties on their books. Either the auctioneers are seeing what is coming and advising sellers to drop or there is just nothing budging. One auctioneer told me recently that without bank valuations, they would find it hard to keep going.
I feel the sentiment is definitely shifting..

JJJackal

UsBus wrote: »

I wouldn't go on anything written in those papers. The incentive is there for them to flog property supplements for as long as possible.

It could be localised but the area I am buying in, (large town, west of Ireland), I have seen a large number of price drops in the last 6 months. I've even seen a number of auctioneers slash prices on a large number of the properties on their books. Either the auctioneers are seeing what is coming and advising sellers to drop or there is just nothing budging. One auctioneer told me recently that without bank valuations, they would find it hard to keep going.
I feel the sentiment is definitely shifting..

I think asking price drops and rises mean very little. Some auctioneers price high and hope for one giant bid to take it; others price low to generate interest and bidding.

PPR is only way to go.

Not to state the obvious but if the auctioneer has bank valuations there is obviously properties being sold

Reversal

UsBus wrote: »

I wouldn't go on anything written in those papers. The incentive is there for them to flog property supplements for as long as possible.

It could be localised but the area I am buying in, (large town, west of Ireland), I have seen a large number of price drops in the last 6 months. I've even seen a number of auctioneers slash prices on a large number of the properties on their books. Either the auctioneers are seeing what is coming and advising sellers to drop or there is just nothing budging. One auctioneer told me recently that without bank valuations, they would find it hard to keep going.
I feel the sentiment is definitely shifting..

Same story in the east. A rash of price drops on properties over the last few weeks. This being a popular Dublin commuter town. A check of Daft reveals that for properties that have been on over 8 weeks, more have dropped than not. We're talking 7.5% drops in asking price. Now this makes sense that prices will drop on properties that are slow movers but after watching for a while this hasn't happened until recently.

The_Conductor

Speaking to two local auctioneers during the week- its not just bank valuations that are becoming their bread and butter- but valuations for the Fair Deal Scheme- are becoming more and more lucrative- one large auctioneer in Lucan said his franchise would have closed over a year ago- but for Fair Deal Scheme valuations....... Times appear to be tough!