Property Market 2019

UsBus

JJJackal wrote: »

Not to state the obvious but if the auctioneer has bank valuations there is obviously properties being sold

Possibly, but an auctioneer will be carrying out a valuation on behalf of a bank for another auctioneer. Given the amount of sales that fall through, you can see why they rely on these to keep ticking over..

Reversal

JJJackal wrote: »

I think asking price drops and rises mean very little. Some auctioneers price high and hope for one giant bid to take it; others price low to generate interest and bidding.

PPR is only way to go.

Not to state the obvious but if the auctioneer has bank valuations there is obviously properties being sold

True but when price drops become much more widespread than before it may at least be a sign that EAs overreached with there valuations just before things cooled off and now have to correct. Hopefully a sign of stability and nothing more. In addition the PPR is showing the same market behaviour. Which is good for people buying homes.

From an investment point of view, probably worth taking note of these clues. And anyway with Brexit looming and now the OECD moving to normalise global corporate tax rates, there are risks of both rural Ireland and Dublin taking an economic hit in the next couple of years.

JJJackal

UsBus wrote: »

Possibly, but an auctioneer will be carrying out a valuation on behalf of a bank for another auctioneer. Given the amount of sales that fall through, you can see why they rely on these to keep ticking over..

I have no doubt there are more valuations than sales - how much does a valuation cost?

UsBus

JJJackal wrote: »

I have no doubt there are more valuations than sales - how much does a valuation cost?

I've got two done in the past 6 months, about 130 euro each..

JJJackal

2017 419832.0007
Qtr1 408490.7506
Jan 421449.708
Feb 388156.4374
Mar 416353.5268
Qtr2 400986.2722
Apr 382204.4375
May 391573.8615
Jun 425254.036
Qtr3 423144.4833
Jul 424471.458
Aug 422367.6367
Sep 422601.5133
Qtr4 437883.4391
Oct 446737.7507
Nov 427988.3831
Dec 438650.462
2018 469288.8958
Qtr1 416915.3461
Jan 413505.8828
Feb 435966.6808
Mar 402204.1721
Qtr2 503507.8147
Apr 412266.629
May 427245.5181
Jun 669657.0692
Qtr3 471988.7737
Jul 503104.9377
Aug 451140.4861
Sep 456314.4614
Qtr4 477045.8008
Oct 568443.1318
Nov 421958.3662
Dec 445560.437
2019 438552.2149
Qtr1 418767.9651
Jan 446741.658
Feb 409283.6503
Mar 405870.6958
Qtr2 471355.6639
Apr 515528.1282
May 407806.7874

This is the PPR averages in Dublin since 2017 - difficult to interpret
The January, February, March sales prices appear stable for 3 years (no increase or decrease) - prob too early to judge April and May

SirGerryAdams

Does it matter the difference between price of new and used home?

Would 2nd hand stay the same price and new houses go higher or would 2nd hand drop and new houses come in around or a slight bit higher than current prices?

Reversal

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

Does it matter the difference between price of new and used home?

Would 2nd hand stay the same price and new houses go higher or would 2nd hand drop and new houses come in around or a slight bit higher than current prices?

You have to remember that new build prices are artificially inflated by 5% due to the help to buy scheme.

SirGerryAdams

Reversal wrote: »

You have to remember that new build prices are artificially inflated by 5% due to the help to buy scheme.

I forgot about that. ****ing jealous of the help to buy scheme.

There's lads in work who are in their mid 30's and about to start families building out the country who were going to build anyways. Now they get a nice little discount.

The_Conductor

Just remember the help to buy scheme formally ends on the 31st December 2019- and the government are on the record stating they do not intend to extend this deadline, as all the aims of the scheme have been achieved.

snotboogie

riddles wrote: »

Metro North - extravagant white elephant
Shoe horning tech companies into the heart of dublin - it would have been better to position them outside the M50 in hubs linked to the various motorways with state of the art apartments there but also Luas direct to city centre making Dublin and residential city. It would be easier to manage demand and cost then than the current boom bust cycle which seems to be the accepted norm.

I don't think the tech companies were shoehorned into central Dublin. I certainly don't think Metro North is a white elephant, if anything it's 20 years overdue...

The_Conductor

snotboogie wrote: »

I don't think the tech companies were shoehorned into central Dublin. I certainly don't think Metro North is a white elephant, if anything it's 20 years overdue...

The Tech companies chose to concentrate in a few different areas (the largest of which is West Dublin). Its not that they were shoehorned anywhere- they moved where their staff were happy to work- it might be nice to imagine you could persuade Google or Facebook to build a new facility in Leitrim or Longford- however, they have a young and highly mobile workforce- a majority of whom aren't Irish, who don't want to work anywhere but Dublin.

As for Metro North- we need a proper public transport system for Dublin. Ideally- we'd have an underground system running from North to South- with a series of spurs servicing West Dublin and going in other directions. Our failure to provide a viable public transport system- is strangling our one and only city of any relative size- and is also one of the reasons that we have lost out on recent plans by some of the aforementioned tech companies- to further invest in Ireland.

Fan of Netflix

What impact would no deal Brexit have on house prices and specifically Dublin house prices? None?

Mickiemcfist

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

What impact would no deal Brexit have on house prices and specifically Dublin house prices? None?

Very difficult to say. Dublin has an employment base of many Finance, Tech & multinational firms, plus a huge amount of civil servants, Dublin house prices would be less exposed IMO than parts of the country where import/export or agribusiness is a bigger slice of the pie & job losses would make up a more significant share of the local economy. Just a guess though, I'm not an economist.

snotboogie

The_Conductor wrote: »

The Tech companies chose to concentrate in a few different areas (the largest of which is West Dublin). Its not that they were shoehorned anywhere- they moved where their staff were happy to work- it might be nice to imagine you could persuade Google or Facebook to build a new facility in Leitrim or Longford- however, they have a young and highly mobile workforce- a majority of whom aren't Irish, who don't want to work anywhere but Dublin.

As for Metro North- we need a proper public transport system for Dublin. Ideally- we'd have an underground system running from North to South- with a series of spurs servicing West Dublin and going in other directions. Our failure to provide a viable public transport system- is strangling our one and only city of any relative size- and is also one of the reasons that we have lost out on recent plans by some of the aforementioned tech companies- to further invest in Ireland.

Facebook are also in Cork albeit with a much, much smaller office, for now....

The_Conductor

snotboogie wrote: »

Facebook are also in Cork albeit with a much, much smaller office, for now....

They're in a few different locations around Dublin as well- West Dublin is no longer their sole haunt by any means. Cork was of course Ireland's first foray into IT- albeit more from a manufacturing perspective than higher up the foodchain.

Blueshoe

UsBus wrote: »

I wouldn't go on anything written in those papers. The incentive is there for them to flog property supplements for as long as possible.

It could be localised but the area I am buying in, (large town, west of Ireland), I have seen a large number of price drops in the last 6 months. I've even seen a number of auctioneers slash prices on a large number of the properties on their books. Either the auctioneers are seeing what is coming and advising sellers to drop or there is just nothing budging. One auctioneer told me recently that without bank valuations, they would find it hard to keep going.
I feel the sentiment is definitely shifting..

I keep an eye on properties in my area as I'm currently saving for a deposit. Same houses for sale for a long time. Most have not budged price wise but some have been dropped. Nobody building new. Nothing stirring whatsoever.
Spoke to a friend of mine who is selling 3 townhouses in the area. Says no shortage of lower offers and a couple of agreements but the deals have fallen through each time. couldn't get the money from the bank. No 1 reason.

If the lending rules are relaxed prices will obviously increase but if things remain the same I can see more lower prices.

OwlsZat

Heard from a carpenter today similar story. Work really slackened off. Cited affordability ceeling and Brexit uncertainty.

4ensic15

The_Conductor wrote: »

The Tech companies chose to concentrate in a few different areas (the largest of which is West Dublin). Its not that they were shoehorned anywhere- they moved where their staff were happy to work- it might be nice to imagine you could persuade Google or Facebook to build a new facility in Leitrim or Longford- however, they have a young and highly mobile workforce- a majority of whom aren't Irish, who don't want to work anywhere but Dublin.

The tech companies wanted a 440kv power supply. Not available in Longford or Leitrim. Easy access to sea and airports was also highly desirable.

Twenty Grand

4ensic15 wrote: »

The tech companies wanted a 440mhz power supply.

???

4ensic15

Twenty Grand wrote: »

???

440kv.

Eric Cartman

The_Conductor wrote: »

The Tech companies chose to concentrate in a few different areas (the largest of which is West Dublin). Its not that they were shoehorned anywhere- they moved where their staff were happy to work- it might be nice to imagine you could persuade Google or Facebook to build a new facility in Leitrim or Longford- however, they have a young and highly mobile workforce- a majority of whom aren't Irish, who don't want to work anywhere but Dublin.

As for Metro North- we need a proper public transport system for Dublin. Ideally- we'd have an underground system running from North to South- with a series of spurs servicing West Dublin and going in other directions. Our failure to provide a viable public transport system- is strangling our one and only city of any relative size- and is also one of the reasons that we have lost out on recent plans by some of the aforementioned tech companies- to further invest in Ireland.

I remember years ago a careers fair in college , had lots of tech companies show up and offer jobs to soon to be graduates , ebay offering lots of jobs which students rejected their positions when they found out they meant the dundalk office, ericsson did a great presentation and were offering the sun moon and stars , had everyones attention till they said 'at our athlone campus' and everyone just turned off completely.

Tech workers know they don't have to sacrifice the greater dublin area and absolutely aren't willing to do so. Im sure many mature staff looking at buying a house would welcome a job in dunboyne / ashbourne / gorey / maynooth etc... but the graduates are not willing to turn their back on dublin and nobody has any interest in not being able to get to the city for a night out.

bringing jobs to rural Ireland with a national broadband plan or whatever is a fantastic idea for smaller companies, mature staff and lower paid workers like call centres or support. But any of the qualified grads chasing 6 figures before 40 are only looking in dublin (and cork, limerick, galway to an extent) nothing else will do for them or the multinational companies that want to attract them.

Cuddlesworth

Eric Cartman wrote: »

bringing jobs to rural Ireland with a national broadband plan or whatever is a fantastic idea for smaller companies, mature staff and lower paid workers like call centres or support. But any of the qualified grads chasing 6 figures before 40 are only looking in dublin (and cork, limerick, galway to an extent) nothing else will do for them or the multinational companies that want to attract them.

Even the companies in Cork struggle to get experienced high level staff, let alone Galway or Limerick.

kippy

Eric Cartman wrote: »

I remember years ago a careers fair in college , had lots of tech companies show up and offer jobs to soon to be graduates , ebay offering lots of jobs which students rejected their positions when they found out they meant the dundalk office, ericsson did a great presentation and were offering the sun moon and stars , had everyones attention till they said 'at our athlone campus' and everyone just turned off completely.

Tech workers know they don't have to sacrifice the greater dublin area and absolutely aren't willing to do so. Im sure many mature staff looking at buying a house would welcome a job in dunboyne / ashbourne / gorey / maynooth etc... but the graduates are not willing to turn their back on dublin and nobody has any interest in not being able to get to the city for a night out.

bringing jobs to rural Ireland with a national broadband plan or whatever is a fantastic idea for smaller companies, mature staff and lower paid workers like call centres or support. But any of the qualified grads chasing 6 figures before 40 are only looking in dublin (and cork, limerick, galway to an extent) nothing else will do for them or the multinational companies that want to attract them.

Part of the reason for that though is the lack of opportunities in Athlone/Dundalk.
One of the best ways to increase your earning potential is to move around after 18-24 months and not stay in one job too long. Places like Athlone/Dundalk tend not to have may multinationals with a presence there - hence the main reason folks aren't too eager to make the move to the smaller towns. It's not just about the "night out" - well maybe it is.

It's a kinda "chicken and egg" scenario.
A lot of what has been mentioned that Dublin offers, is available in Limerick/Cork and Galway and generally with a much better quality of life than living in Dublin.
The biggest issue is the lack of options for mobility within those cities for those starting off in their careers.

voluntary

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Even the companies in Cork struggle to get experienced high level staff, let alone Galway or Limerick.

Cities need to reach a critical mass in order to attract both: corporations and employees. 500k+ people would be a breaking point. With 0.5 a million peole you usually get an airport, good few universities etc.

misc2013

Dolbhad wrote: »

I agree. I had a deposit down for a new build. Have rough estimates of a garden. When we went up to look it was actually half the size and was completely sloped so couldn’t even use it as builder refused to flatten it out. There was a detached house next to us which had a sunroom (which we didn’t have) which meant their back garden was non existent over it. Maybe just enough for a shed and a clothes line. It turned us off. Especially had new builds don’t have front gardens either - you do need some private space for kids. So we had to weight up a new build at A3 rating vs no outside space. And it’s not that we could buy a bigger house in the estate and get a better garden.

The "gardens" are tiny in some new builds. KNow someone moving from renting to own new build. They left their swings set - an average swings set - behind as not enough room in new garden!

OwlsZat

Have the hoarders finally decided it time to start selling assets.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/archdiocese-and-gaa-selling-land-in-drumcondra-for-100m-1.3918684

Eric Cartman

OwlsZat wrote: »

Have the hoarders finally decided it time to start selling assets.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/archdiocese-and-gaa-selling-land-in-drumcondra-for-100m-1.3918684

theres your peak for you. Theyve decided growth in land price has slowed enough, expect everyone else to get in on this now. All the land gets sold before the price cools off.

Browney7

Eric Cartman wrote: »

theres your peak for you. Theyve decided growth in land price has slowed enough, expect everyone else to get in on this now. All the land gets sold before the price cools off.

IRFU sold a decent sized tract of land out by Newlands aswell last November so there is probably an element of "cashing in" now

Blueshoe

UK economy figures look like a recession is looming there. Has to be a knock on effect here.

Sunrise_Sunset

Just went sale agreed today. Thanks to this forum for the advice over the past few months.