Property Market 2019

ECO_Mental

awec wrote: »

Said absolutely nobody ever.

Prices WILL go down at some point. You seem to be under the impression that you're one of the few geniuses on here who can see this, despite the fact that there probably is not a poster on this forum who doesn't know that prices will go down.

I can guarantee you that some day prices in Ireland will show consistent drops. And if you keep saying the same thing over and over again, eventually it'll happen, and you can come back and impress us all with how you predicted this when nobody else was able to see it.

I dont see the drops being being anything great though (fingers crossed) I paid 450k for my 3 bed semi back in 2006 :o if I sell it now for €350-360k I would be happy, so we are a long way off any major crash (again fingers crossed)



Obviously I would love for it to get more and one in the estate went for €395k but that one was the cream of the crop, but there is a hard ceiling there for 3 bed semis and that's 400k here in cork and in reality i would say its around €350k.


Dublin and the outskirts is a whole different ball game and I dont know much about there but from what I hear houses are a bit expensive but then again there is a million+ people in and around Dublin with big fancy salarys:P

Wexforllion

ECO_Mental wrote: »

I dont see the drops being being anything great though (fingers crossed) I paid 450k for my 3 bed semi back in 2006 :o if I sell it now for €350-360k I would be happy, so we are a long way off any major crash (again fingers crossed)



Obviously I would love for it to get more and one in the estate went for €395k but that one was the cream of the crop, but there is a hard ceiling there for 3 bed semis and that's 400k here in cork and in reality i would say its around €350k.


Dublin and the outskirts is a whole different ball game and I dont know much about there but from what I hear houses are a bit expensive but then again there is a million+ people in and around Dublin with big fancy salarys:P

Is it an investment property?

Paul_Mc1988

ECO_Mental wrote:

I dont see the drops being being anything great though (fingers crossed) I paid 450k for my 3 bed semi back in 2006 if I sell it now for €350-360k I would be happy, so we are a long way off any major crash (again fingers crossed)

So because the house is valued at 90k less than it was in 2006 you think we can't crash because we haven't hit the previous peak. One simple thing your forgetting here and thats central bank rules. Back then you could get 5+ times your salary now most are stuck at 3.5 times.

We are are at the limit of what people can afford and thats whats slowing house price growth. That and new builds that are considerably more energy efficient can be got for the same or even a bit less a little further from the cities.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

Paul_Mc1988 wrote: »

So because the house is valued at 90k less than it was in 2006 you think we can't crash because we haven't hit the previous peak. One simple thing your forgetting here and thats central bank rules. Back then you could get 5+ times your salary now most are stuck at 3.5 times.

We are are at the limit of what people can afford and thats whats slowing house price growth. That and new builds that are considerably more energy efficient can be got for the same or even a bit less a little further from the cities.

The cb rules down price growth is what’s probably avoiding a full on crash this time. Prices will definitely stragnate though.

FutureGuy

I wonder will the Government's announcement on Climate Action spook the second-hand market?

Bluefoam

Pussyhands wrote: »

devlinio wrote: »

My parents are selling their rental property this year. Looking at ~40% capital gain if prices remain stagnant. I hope prices increase over the next year (for them, I feel sorry for others, but I want my parents to be secure).

Hoping they get out before the prices fall. I think early last year was the peak.

By the time they get to selling it prices may have tanked.

But the CSO report literally says that prices are still rising.... Therefore the peak hasn't yet happened... The only prices that are falling (slightly) are those in Dun Laoighre Rathdown where some houses in a specific price bracket have decreased a little bit.

4ensic15

Bluefoam wrote: »

But the CSO report literally says that prices are still rising.... Therefore the peak hasn't yet happened... The only prices that are falling (slightly) are those in Dun Laoighre Rathdown where some houses in a specific price bracket have decreased a little bit.

The official statistics always lag the real market. The statistics only deal with closed sales where the deal was agreed months prior. The statistics don't show the numbers of unsold houses, disappointed would be buyers withdrawing from the market.

mariaalice

ECO_Mental wrote: »

I dont see the drops being being anything great though (fingers crossed) I paid 450k for my 3 bed semi back in 2006 :o if I sell it now for €350-360k I would be happy, so we are a long way off any major crash (again fingers crossed)



Obviously I would love for it to get more and one in the estate went for €395k but that one was the cream of the crop, but there is a hard ceiling there for 3 bed semis and that's 400k here in cork and in reality i would say its around €350k.


Dublin and the outskirts is a whole different ball game and I dont know much about there but from what I hear houses are a bit expensive but then again there is a million+ people in and around Dublin with big fancy salarys:P

How much would you have paid in rent for the past 13 years if you had not purchased in 2006 instead of buying that fact always seems to slip peoples mind.

Bluefoam

4ensic15 wrote: »

Bluefoam wrote: »

But the CSO report literally says that prices are still rising.... Therefore the peak hasn't yet happened... The only prices that are falling (slightly) are those in Dun Laoighre Rathdown where some houses in a specific price bracket have decreased a little bit.

The official statistics always lag the real market. The statistics only deal with closed sales where the deal was agreed months prior. The statistics don't show the numbers of unsold houses, disappointed would be buyers withdrawing from the market.

Absolute bollox. That's not how the market is measured. The CSO statistics literally show the value of property sold up until April this year. And we'd know by now if there was a fall in property value last year.

Property taken off the market only shows that the vendor didn't achieve their perceived value in the property. There's been allot of ****e come on the market over the past year and the sellers think that their poorly maintained ****box should exceed the value of other property in the locality... That only tells us that the market has become more discerning and people are paying more for quality, which hasn't always been the case in this country.

mariaalice

I would say people think it is the top of the market, houses around me are poping up for sale and prior to last year this particular bit of the estate very rarley has a house for sale that is always a sign of what people are thinking. Thinking it is not the same as being true though.

For what is worth I think prices will stagnate more that anything else.

Jaster Rogue

FutureGuy wrote: »

I wonder will the Government's announcement on Climate Action spook the second-hand market?

I was actually thinking it may have the opposite effect.

Improved access to grants and finance for deep retrofit and other SEAI schemes means older properties in private estates (with no 10% social housing) will become more attractive to potential buyers.

beauf

Way too early to know...

JJJackal

if you remove the first time buyers grant and give people money to improve E rated second hand homes, second hand home price rises re very possible

Reversal

awec wrote: »

You should try reading the rest of the article too rather than one sentence.

I did. Completion figures well below the arbitrary 35,000 figure. And STILL demand is lagging behind the supply that is there, leaving a surplus of unsold units.

voluntary

JJJackal wrote: »

if you remove the first time buyers grant and give people money to improve E rated second hand homes, second hand home price rises re very possible

The government wants to ban gas and oil heating and move towards heat pumps. All good, but:

1) heat pumps won't work with radiators, you need underfloor heating as the max efficient temperature of water leaving the heat pump is around 34 Celsius.

2) need to improve insulation

3) you can't seal and insualte your house without adding an efficient ventilation system as your house will very soon become rotten.

The cost of upgrading an old house to a one which is independent from fossil fuels is huge (underfloor heating + insuolation + ventilation). In many cases it will be cheaper to demolish + rebuild.

beauf

You have to wonder if the costs 50~100k are returned in the lifetime of the owner. If not, whats the point.

Which is why people do nothing for years, then just move. Let someone carry the cost, be it the previous owner or developer on a new build.

Jaster Rogue

Reversal wrote: »

I did. Completion figures well below the arbitrary 35,000 figure. And STILL demand is lagging behind the supply that is there, leaving a surplus of unsold units.

I don't think demand is lagging supply, the demand is there (in cities anyway) but prices have risen to a level that many can't afford leaving those unsold units on the market. Normally prices would fall in line with the demand, but it costs too much to build property today with construction labour and materials costs, land prices, etc meaning developers can't drop the price to affordable levels and still make a profit. Government intervention seems to be the only way to break that deadlock.

FutureGuy

voluntary wrote: »

The government wants to ban gas and oil heating and move towards heat pumps. All good, but:

1) heat pumps won't work with radiators, you need underfloor heating as the max efficient temperature of water leaving the heat pump is around 34 Celsius.

2) need to improve insulation

3) you can't seal and insualte your house withoug adding an efficient ventilation system as you're house will very soon become rotten

The cost of upgrading an old house to a one which is independent from fossil fuels is huge (underfloor heating + insuolation + ventilation). In many cases it will be cheaper to demolish + rebuild.

We had an offer accepted literally yesterday and the ramifications of what is being proposed is staggering. Looking like we are paying at close to peak of market. The house is 45 years old and a C1 after the current owners upgraded the insulation etc.

Jaster Rogue

voluntary wrote: »

The government wants to ban gas and oil heating and move towards heat pumps. All good, but:

1) heat pumps won't work with radiators, you need underfloor heating as the max efficient temperature of water leaving the heat pump is around 34 Celsius.

2) need to improve insulation

3) you can't seal and insualte your house withoug adding an efficient ventilation system as you're house will very soon become rotten

The cost of upgrading an old house to a one which is independent from fossil fuels is huge (underfloor heating + insuolation + ventilation). In many cases it will be cheaper to demolish + rebuild.

I thought they only wanted to ban oil/gas boilers in new builds? They can't expect every house in the country to convert to heat pumps and underfloor heating by 2050

beauf

Most of the refurbs I've seen recently have pretty much stripped the house back to a shell, made structure and layout changes then rebuilt as if it was a new build.

While I would say its not worth it, I'm not seeing any savings in going for any new builds nearby.

AlmightyCushion

voluntary wrote: »

The government wants to ban gas and oil heating and move towards heat pumps. All good, but:

1) heat pumps won't work with radiators, you need underfloor heating as the max efficient temperature of water leaving the heat pump is around 34 Celsius.

2) need to improve insulation

3) you can't seal and insualte your house withoug adding an efficient ventilation system as you're house will very soon become rotten

The cost of upgrading an old house to a one which is independent from fossil fuels is huge (underfloor heating + insuolation + ventilation). In many cases it will be cheaper to demolish + rebuild.

You don't have to go underfloor heating with heat pumps, you can use radiators. The radiators do need a higher surface area than your traditional radiators though.

voluntary

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

You don't have to go underfloor heating with heat pumps, you can use radiators. The radiators do need a higher surface area than your traditional radiators though.

I know from experience this won't work. You'll be either freezing or will have to increase the output temperature on the heat pump, so basically topping up the temperature with the electricity.

I don't believe you can heat up a house during winter with ~30 Celsius water in radiators. You know, this is below you're body temperature which is 36.6 Celsius.

Bluefoam

voluntary wrote: »

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

You don't have to go underfloor heating with heat pumps, you can use radiators. The radiators do need a higher surface area than your traditional radiators though.

I know from experience this won't work. You'll be either freezing or will have to increase the output temperature on the heat pump, so basically topping up the temperature with the electricity.

I don't believe you can heat up a house during winter with ~30 Celsius water in radiators. You know, this is below you're body temperature which is 36.6 Celsius.

Having viewed numerous new build with heat pumps, all that I have seen had radiators...

voluntary

Bluefoam wrote: »

Having viewed numerous new build with heat pumps, all that I have seen had radiators...

Good luck to the new 'happy' owners then.

Bluefoam

voluntary wrote: »

Bluefoam wrote: »

Having viewed numerous new build with heat pumps, all that I have seen had radiators...

Good luck to the new 'happy' owners then.

I don't mean to **** on your parade. But heat pumps do work with radiators. They just need to be of the correct specification.

http://www.yougen.co.uk/blog-entry/1606/Can+you+use+radiators+with+an+air+source+heat+pump'3F/

ionapaul

I'm in Dublin 18 and also believe that the market has peaked here (or rather, reached a peak last year and is on a slight downward trend) - one house up for sale near me that we viewed in 2014, was on the market at €445k then and didn't sell:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/27-glencairn-avenue-the-gallops-leopardstown-dublin-18/4338364

A few others in the estate across the road:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/18-castle-grove-kilgobbin-wood-sandyford-dublin-18/4339168

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/2-castle-grove-kilgobbin-wood-sandyford-dublin-18/4338679

Think that first one sold for €320K a few years ago in need of some work... but those asking prices are pretty ambitious I think. I can't see either coming too close to asking, but who knows I guess. Just agree with others that prices in much of south Dublin have hit a ceiling that the Central Bank rules created, and just won't go any higher as a result.

Also, lots more second-hand supply in this part of Dublin 18 than most times over the past 12 months I think.

JJJackal

Jaster Rogue wrote: »

I thought they only wanted to ban oil/gas boilers in new builds? They can't expect every house in the country to convert to heat pumps and underfloor heating by 2050

in 31 years thats not an unreasonable target. Over that time about 500,000 new homes will be built.

Most new homes in the last few years have heat pumps or solar or some efficient combo.

Lots of people are retrofitting houses already.

Not unreasonable with grant support to think that most houses nationwide could have a heat pump in 30 years. I think its reasonable to think that every boiler currently in use will need to be replaced in 30 years at least once (life expectancy is 10-15?)

voluntary

Bluefoam wrote: »

I don't mean to **** on your parade. But heat pumps do work with radiators. They just need to be of the correct specification.

http://www.yougen.co.uk/blog-entry/1606/Can+you+use+radiators+with+an+air+source+heat+pump'3F/

Ask somebody who bought one of these houses what are their energy bills.
I pretty much doubt they operate below 35 Celsius.

You can always run a heat pump at 50 Celsius, but what's the point? The electricity needed will cost you more than natural gas.

here's a quote from your link, they even give an example of runnign a heat pump at 50C!

So if you currently have a oil fired boiler powering your heating system, with flow temperatures around 80C, and you exchange that boiler for a heat pump with flow temperatures of, say 50C, you will need radiators double the size

http://www.yougen.co.uk/blog-entry/1606/Can+you+use+radiators+with+an+air+source+heat+pump'3F/

Zenify

Bluefoam wrote: »

But the CSO report literally says that prices are still rising.... Therefore the peak hasn't yet happened... The only prices that are falling (slightly) are those in Dun Laoighre Rathdown where some houses in a specific price bracket have decreased a little bit.

The prices are rising according to the CSO for Dublin based on the year. The last few months saw the prices decline. However, in the latest CSO report I didn't see it broken down by month.

voluntary

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