Property Market 2019

The Student

ZX7R wrote: »

Not really we will just import from main land eu , with help in subsidy and tax breaks for the government

Subsidizing/tax breaks for the construction industry, that will go down well with the public.

Bluefoam

The Student wrote: »

Subsidizing/tax breaks for the construction industry, that will go down well with the public.

But the construction industry is already heavily supported by the tax payer... We give a huge grant to every first time buyer, the deveoper puts the price up to make use of the free money accross the board, increasuing the cost of housing for everyone else. The developers are also guarunteed a certain percentage of sales as social housing... this is paid on the double, one by the council from tax payers money & secondly by the buyers whose prices go up in order to finance the people who live next door to them without paying (in full)

tigger123

Anyone got tomorrows nights lotto numbers?

liam7831

tigger123 wrote:

Anyone got tomorrows nights lotto numbers?

Try the gambling section

KaneToad

No deal Brexit will not happen. There will be a soft Brexit. The UK really want all the benefits of the common market. They will be happy with a Brexit in name type scenario... The WA will be tweaked slightly (inconsequently for Ireland/EU) and accepted by UK as it will be portrayed as a victory. Property prices will not decrease - as a function of Brexit.

There, I've said it.

Zenify

Article on Bloomberg:

These Are the Countries Most at Risk of Housing Bubbles https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-12/canada-new-zealand-show-signs-of-housing-bubble-says-study

Puts Ireland at number 9

KaneToad wrote: »

No deal Brexit will not happen. There will be a soft Brexit. The UK really want all the benefits of the common market. They will be happy with a Brexit in name type scenario... The WA will be tweaked slightly (inconsequently for Ireland/EU) and accepted by UK as it will be portrayed as a victory. Property prices will not decrease - as a function of Brexit.

There, I've said it.

Em... have you met the DUP? Not the best of people for compromise... they will never agree to a backstop.

4ensic15

Bluefoam wrote: »

But the construction industry is already heavily supported by the tax payer... We give a huge grant to every first time buyer, the deveoper puts the price up to make use of the free money accross the board, increasuing the cost of housing for everyone else. The developers are also guarunteed a certain percentage of sales as social housing... this is paid on the double, one by the council from tax payers money & secondly by the buyers whose prices go up in order to finance the people who live next door to them without paying (in full)

That state takes in far more from building houses than it gives out in grants. 12.55 of the price of a new house is VAT. There is prsi and usc on all the labour, there are planning contributions and then corporation tax on the profits.

KaneToad

Zenify wrote: »

Em... have you met the DUP? Not the best of people for compromise... they will never agree to a backstop.

New Tory party under Johnson will go to the country & secure a majority. They won't give a toss about the DUP then...

They don't care about them now - they're just propping up the UK govt.

Assetbacked

KaneToad wrote: »

New Tory party under Johnson will go to the country & secure a majority. They won't give a toss about the DUP then...

They don't care about them now - they're just propping up the UK govt.

The choice wont be WA or no deal, if they go to the country it will be for staying in the EU or the deal negotiated. Then they won't end up leaving.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Assetbacked wrote: »

The choice wont be WA or no deal, if they go to the country it will be for staying in the EU or the deal negotiated. Then they won't end up leaving.

WA?

Phileas Frog

Pheonix10 wrote: »

WA?

Withdrawal Agreement. A Catholic form of contraception, not very effective.

rireland

Phileas Frog wrote: »

Withdrawal Agreement. A Catholic form of contraception, not very effective.

It is actually. Pretty good!

Phileas Frog

rireland wrote: »

It is actually. Pretty good!

It is, if the withdrawal happens. Quite often, the withdrawal is so prolonged it becomes ineffective

Eric Cartman

There are companies packaging mortgages back into rmbs’s , companies le ding to builders off the back of promises of deposits on new builds, that last time round the out of normal bounds lending was public, advertised and sold directly to the punter.

Its happening again, this time instead of anglo , nationwide or AIB (big banks) getting it done, the ICB has allowed tiny popup intermediaries backed by funds in other countries or mega funds in Ireland.

There are intrmediaries now bending the rules to the edge of the line.

One of the new tricks now some small firms of 2-3 people in a serviced office operating as an ICB approved intermediary are pulling is to take high value properties (say 1 million) , you do a deal with the vendor where you give them 500k for a long lease now and pay to have an option on the property in 5-10 years time for the balance. The underwriter sees it as a 50% ltv mortgage with little down (its loan to value not mortgage) and in 5 or 10 years time the client has to get an additional mortgage to buy out the freehold / remainder of the property at the value today. Obviously if the property is magically worth 2 million in a decade this is a great deal and inflation will allow them to complete, but if we end up in a brexit based dip or inflation stagnates youre going to have a lot of high value properties defaulted on.

Im sure there are more legal technicalities on it that these people are working around but its effective result is allowing a household on a 150k a year income to purchase a house worth a million. Effectively 6.7x income and well outside ecb rules.

UsBus

KaneToad wrote: »

No deal Brexit will not happen. There will be a soft Brexit. The UK really want all the benefits of the common market. They will be happy with a Brexit in name type scenario... The WA will be tweaked slightly (inconsequently for Ireland/EU) and accepted by UK as it will be portrayed as a victory. Property prices will not decrease - as a function of Brexit.

There, I've said it.

Doesn't really matter in terms of Ireland's economy and property market. We are being marched off a cliff like lemmings with regard to global stock markets. Have you seen the value of the Dow Jones or s&p 500 lately.? They are off the scale in terms of being overvalued.

Trump is controlling the FED now forcing them into complete 180 turnarounds. He's not interested in anything other then a strong US economy to get him over the line next year and will do or say anything to get there.

We are gonna pay hard for this in the next couple of years..

coolshannagh28

UsBus wrote: »

Doesn't really matter in terms of Ireland's economy and property market. We are being marched off a cliff like lemmings with regard to global stock markets. Have you seen the value of the Dow Jones or s&p 500 lately.? They are off the scale in terms of being overvalued.

Trump is controlling the FED now forcing them into complete 180 turnarounds. He's not interested in anything other then a strong US economy to get him over the line next year and will do or say anything to get there.

We are gonna pay hard for this in the next couple of years..

Trump has incredible leverage with Powell the FED chairman who should be raising rates right now....

Fan of Netflix

<SNIP>

alwald

I haven't been following the rental market at all and out of curiosity I checked in Daft and there are almost 1500 ads for Co Dublin alone.
Are the Air B&B new rules working? was the stock always in around this level?

hmmm

UsBus wrote: »

Doesn't really matter in terms of Ireland's economy and property market. We are being marched off a cliff like lemmings with regard to global stock markets. Have you seen the value of the Dow Jones or s&p 500 lately.? They are off the scale in terms of being overvalued.

I'm sitting on a 100% profit since 2008 in the stock markets, so just as well I didn't listen to people like you.

In my experience, there are always lots of bad things on the horizon, but we (humanity) muddle through. As long as you don't over-extend yourself, you'll be fine.

To bring this back to property, thanks to the Central Bank rules we are not over-extended as a country. It was obvious back in 2007 with people paying 8 times their income, and taxi drivers buying rental properties, and people buying houses in Cape Verde that many were over-extended. .

Mad_maxx

hmmm wrote: »

I'm sitting on a 100% profit since 2008 in the stock markets, so just as well I didn't listen to people like you.

In my experience, there are always lots of bad things on the horizon, but we (humanity) muddle through. As long as you don't over-extend yourself, you'll be fine.

To bring this back to property, thanks to the Central Bank rules we are not over-extended as a country. It was obvious back in 2007 with people paying 8 times their income, and taxi drivers buying rental properties, and people buying houses in Cape Verde that many were over-extended. .

The s + p is up 100% since 2013, never mind 2008

Assetbacked

https://m.independent.ie/business/technology/news/phil-hogan-kept-away-from-powerful-eu-post-to-avoid-conflict-with-tech-giants-38312541.html

This article is exactly why FG are not the party to fix the housing crisis. Big business is better for Ireland than the social comfort of the citizens. Job creation (at full employment now) and the doublespeak term of "growth" of MNCs is the priority of FG and not infrastructure. This attitude applies to their attitude to the housing market too; institutional investors are white horses so don't touch them with tax; tax is for the individual landlords, the proles.

Roberto_gas

Mad_maxx wrote:

The s + p is up 100% since 2013, never mind 2008

Exactly 100% profit since 2008 low is very poor!!

4ensic15

alwald wrote: »

I haven't been following the rental market at all and out of curiosity I checked in Daft and there are almost 1500 ads for Co Dublin alone.
Are the Air B&B new rules working? was the stock always in around this level?

This is the time of the year when stock is at its maximum. When the CAO offers come out in a few weeks, all hell will break loose. It looks that there is about double the usual level of supply available at the moment. DAFT shows a lot of price drops so the market has probably peaked.

beauf

Roberto_gas wrote: »

Exactly 100% profit since 2008 low is very poor!!

Why? Its been around 8-10% increase per year in last few years but it dropped in the first couple of years.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/prices-down-19-in-2009-1.1239440

People have short memories.

Twenty Grand

beauf wrote: »

Why? Its been around 8-10% increase per year in last few years but it dropped in the first couple of years.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/prices-down-19-in-2009-1.1239440

People have short memories.

He's talking about the stock market no?

My shares have gone up 10% in the last month, never mind year.

beauf

Ah.

Mad_maxx

Roberto_gas wrote: »

Exactly 100% profit since 2008 low is very poor!!

The low waa in 2009 but you were below 10000 for most of 2008

rireland

Just crash already! No hope of buying without a crash.

And before people say I wouldn't be able buy in a crash...possibly. But at least prices would be at a lower base and more affordable in future.

SozBbz

rireland wrote: »

Just crash already! No hope of buying without a crash.

And before people say I wouldn't be able buy in a crash...possibly. But at least prices would be at a lower base and more affordable in future.

Delightful sentiment.

I suspect you have no hope of buying.

rireland

SozBbz wrote: »

Delightful sentiment.

I suspect you have no hope of buying.

Not at current prices no. I have a lump of cash money but my salary isn't high enough to get a mortgage.