Euromillions 2019

jacool

Pre this bet bankroll -118 points
Staking tonight 56 points
Pre draw bankroll -174 points

bet 5 x 6pt singles
1 pt. Canadian (26b) 06 - 14 - 35 - 42 – 50

4068ac1elhodqr

jacool wrote: »

1 pt. Canadian (26b) 06 - 14 - 35 - 42 – 50

Like a couple of those numbers (6/50), but a few others also. 34 not 35.
Have a suspicion that a couple of low ballers might show up (1-6) after the recent run on higher 4x.

The feeling in the bones is that tonight's the night for the mega jackpot, the biggest since March, this time tommorow we'll all be rich, rich I tell ye.

Had a quick speed read of books by Rhonda Byrne, James Redfield, Bärbel Mohr (as plagiarised by Noel Edmonds) so quantum cosmic ordering is in place. A quick go at the psychic training app and the final selection will go in pre-19:30hrs.

4068ac1elhodqr

Yet another Euromills rollover, and another cosmic order to place:
Results: 03 - 22 - 25 - 30 - 49 Lucky Stars 03 - 06

30 was the only secondary interest, 3 star was primary, leaves just 12 (ls) for Fri.
Good to see 22 smashing it after a recent very long delay, it sure came back with great gusto.

jacool

Pre draw bankroll -174 points

bet 5 x 6pt singles
1 pt. Canadian (26b) 06 - 14 - 35 - 42 – 50

Didn't get anything, didn't get close. Stared at those results like they were from some alien lottery.
Hence, the new bankroll is, yes, amazingly, -174 points.
Focussed on one draw in particular, and was convinced we would see a re-visit from #35 and #42.

More homework needed, as well as wading into the €160,000,000 pot !!

4068ac1elhodqr

No winners across the Eurozone, roll it again there Róisín for another aul rollover.

On the plus side the 40's are nearing saturation, so that only leaves 40 {inc 50} main balls to pick from on Tues.

sasta le

22 37 43 44 45 Result for tonight Tuesday
No 21 again

4068ac1elhodqr

Terrible balls tonight, a 40's triple (super saturated decade) and our old friend 22 shows up again (3 of 4 last draws) like the once overdue bus.
LS 12 came out which makes it harder to pick a new couple of stars now. Roll it again for Friday maybe it'll make the €200m mark soon.

sasta le

Yes wasn’t 22 not out for ages a while back
Any stats in the longest or average overdue numbers in Euro Milions

jacool

This was what I typed on Tuesday (but never posted, as I had no time)
so here we are, after 1250 draws !
overall stats point to 15, 23, 30
the last 40 draws point to 19, 22, 27
the last 10 draws point to 27, 29, 37, 43, 45, 47 and totally go against the decade 11-20
simple really

the numbers that are hugely absent in the last 40 draws include 06, 08, 11, 15, 18, 21,36, 50 hugely present 20,27,39,42

the most drawn balls of all time are 04,19,23,26,44,50 these are responsible for 4 of the last 60 balls selected
the least drawn balls of all time are 02,22,33,41,46,47 these are responsible for 7 of the last 60 balls selected

the result was 22-37-43-44-45 another not won massive jackpot
if I had focused on the last 10 draws there, I would have had 4 numbers from 6!

Looking quickly again to see if there's anything amazing I can deduce in the next half hour !

4068ac1elhodqr

21 makes a show, along with hot 50.
Only had these two on one of the lines, let's hope for a rollover.

Edit: Someone on the other thread says it's rolling again for Tues.

supremenovice

sasta le wrote: »

Yes wasn’t 22 not out for ages a while back
Any stats in the longest or average overdue numbers in Euro Milions

http://www.lotteryextreme.com/euro_millions/top_statistics

jacool

Doing a bit of homework tonight, but worth noting that if you fancy a bit of value, then Tuesday night's Euromillions will offer just that.
The last three jackpots, in this series of 18 rollovers, were €164m, €175m and €189,603,734.
This means that the jackpot is growing by over €10,000,000 each draw.
The good news for punters is that the jackpot is capped at €190,000,000 so that means that only €400,000 of the ten million is needed to reach the cap.
Therefore all that extra cash, which could actually be up to 15 million, based on the increasing jackpots, will be funneled down into the lower prizes.
It might just make every match 2 be a fiver instead of €4, but if you match a 4+2, 5 or hopefully a 5+1, the rewards will be way higher than normal.
Lump on!!

jacool

What did I tell you!
Wade back in again Friday as its more of the same.
Three people last night matched 5+1 and got a cool €5,000,000 each.

For the record 02-33-42-47-48 were out, with 4 of those being in the bottom ten numbers drawn ever, before last night's draw. Only the one "birthday" number meant it was only going to be a fortuitous quick pick that would grab the huge jackpot.
I'm off Thursday and I know what I will be doing

4068ac1elhodqr

Interesting about the all time lowballs, the other handful of lows could be a line option for jackpot, then just 6/1 chance of landing a single star.

Also if/when the 5+1 'rolldown' occurs (not for maybe 5 draws yet), the average forced-down prize of 40m (assuming no jackpots in the mean time) and max <5 shared winners, it exceeds the 5+1 odds of 6,991,908/1.

As mentioned previously the 40's are over saturated with shows, so apart from a conflicting single line featuring the two other alltime lows, will be focusing on the lower ranges 4-6, 14-20, 23-36. Only like LS11.

sasta le

Meant to say thanks for 21 last week guys on Friday
I started to follow it got 2 2 balls up in Boylesports
21&25 21&50 €1 at 100 to 1

jacool

bankroll -174

stake tonight 44 points
2 pt patent 24,28,40
3x 10 pt singles on above

Have played the real draw as well for the "value"
There is one more draw that could offer even more value, as follows
First Draw Tuesday 24Sep2019 €190 million As the jackpot can increase no further, any excess funds which would normally go to the top tier will instead be diverted to the next highest tier in which there are winners.
Second Draw TONIGHT Friday 27Sep2019 €190 million Any additional funds continue rolling down to the highest tier in which there are winners. The prize fund for this tier is now likely to be even bigger than it was for the previous draw, as all of the excess jackpot money has been redistributed.
Third Draw 01Oct2019 (if tonight's rolls over) €190 million The same rules apply. As further funds are added to the next highest winning prize tier, there is the potential for many players to become multimillionaires without having to match all the numbers.
Fourth Draw 04Oct2019 (if we are still going) €190 million This is the penultimate draw at which the jackpot is allowed to remain at the cap. By this point, many millionaires will already have been made in the '5+1' prize tier.
Fifth Draw 08Oct2019 €190 million The jackpot has to be won in this draw - no further rollovers can occur. If no one matches all five numbers plus both Lucky Stars in this draw, the entire jackpot amount is shared between winners in the prize tier below.
This last one would be the one to re-mortgage the house for (kidding!!)

4068ac1elhodqr

Tonight's the night, we'll all be rich, rich I tell ya.
There are no super primary balls, just a handful of keen balls e.g. 18 & 34 would make a decent double, and legs11 for a star.
Ideally there will be a break from all the 4x balls of late.

5th RO draw as above (if it gets that far) does display above average 'EV' (expected value).
Some sort of spaced binomial coeffcients might be handy for pick-size reductions based on range groupings.

Spent a couple of hours during the week looking at bell curves AvB, NvP, HvC and so on, it's now or never.
Saying that only did 5lines when passing by the shop, luckily as the the website crashed on a recent check.

4068ac1elhodqr

Rollover (again): [ 24^ 37 41* 43 46* ] {2+8}

^ jacool * part-batch of non-recent all time low appearing, few of these also showed on tues, as ja' mentioned.

Only 4 tickets across the eurolands managed 5+1 (still a reasonable €4.6m each).
The single largest prize won (in Ire), was only about 3k.

In total there were 55,199,552 entries into this draw from all participating countries tonight.
3rd draw beckons on Tues.

Thus, Tue 8th Oct would be the rolldown event, assuming the 4x balls keep appearing for next 2 draws.

jacool

bankroll -174

stake tonight 44 points
2 pt patent 24,28,40
3x 10 pt singles on above

new bankroll pre-draw -218
results 24-37-41-43-46

hit the post with 24-41 landing and me waiting on 24-40 to put me in profit for the year ☹

nevertheless, winnings of 108 points, bring bankroll back to -110

roll on Tuesday

Note: These are the results from the last 10 draws
08 - 26 - 35 - 43 - 47
25 - 27 - 45 - 46 - 49
07 - 11 - 38 - 39 - 44
10 - 13 - 22 - 40 - 48
03 - 22 - 25 - 30 - 49
01 - 12 - 27 - 42 - 47
22 - 37 - 43 - 44 - 45
08 - 21 - 25 - 38 - 50
02 - 33 - 42 - 47 - 48
24 - 37 - 41 - 43 - 46
Anyone who had the foresight to see those 40’s coming would have done well.
Each draw for a treble from 41-50 inclusive would have cost 120 points a draw = that’s 1200 over the ten draws.
Four of them fell, so that’s a return of 6004 points in those last 5 weeks. A 400% return on investment, as the 40s contributed 40% of all numbers drawn.
There has been nothing like this imbalance forever on this draw.
I’m thinking it’s a ship that has definitely sailed!

The last 10 draws point to 27,43 and 47 (unsurprisingly)
The last 40 draws point to 13,42 and 47

4068ac1elhodqr

Surely there will be a break tonight, from the 40's?
Did a rare cheeky double/treble extract from the 6, 18, 20, 23, 34 array (not all groupings or possibilities obvs).

Also for this rare max load rollover event went to the shop again for a handful of lines, based on a big ole chart.
Komputer says this for tonight: 3Even&2Odd || Avg:f18 | Total:f91 {-34ofavg125} | BallRange:37 | & StarsAvg:7, so either 5&9 or 3&11.

A rollover(rolldown) into Tue 8th Oct would also be no bad thing for the 5+1 target.

sasta le

2 11 18 40 46 Stars 1 4

sasta le

Just found out you can do Euromillions online via Boylesports and bet365

Pogue eile

Definitely the funniest thread online, thank you guys!

sasta le

Pogue eile wrote: »

Definitely the funniest thread online, thank you guys!

Why?

Pogue eile

Google probability for a start

sasta le

Pogue eile wrote: »

Google probability for a start

That’s what they do they follow stats and probability here

Pogue eile

sasta le wrote: »

That’s what they do they follow stats and probability here

So you are actually trying to tell me that the propability of a particular number coming out is affected by previous draws I dont think they understand how probability works!

callaway92

Pogue eile wrote: »

So you are actually trying to tell me that the propability of a particular number coming out is affected by previous draws I dont think they understand how probability works!

I don't think you understand how data analytics works

Pogue eile

callaway92 wrote: »

I don't think you understand how data analytics works

lol ok guys keep up the good work! Hilarious

4068ac1elhodqr

Pogue eile wrote: »

So you are actually trying to tell me that the propability of a particular number coming out is affected by previous draws I dont think they understand how probability works!

Is the 'law of large numbers', a work of fiction?

TBF, the P+ may be as little as 0.5 to perhaps max 5.0, still if you're going to have a go at any lotto (for light enterainment) may as well try to squeeze any (even very slight) advantage.

e.g. Never do the regular shop EMs ticket without a significant rollover, avoid low number weighting (<12/30). But don't miss the rare x5 rolldown coming (next Tues). Also aim for avg totals around 125, either 2/3 or 3/2 odd-v-evens, spread across min of 3 decades and so on...

Also worth a mention: for the reg UK lotto, only ever attempt this regular ticket on the (very regular) rolldown for a price advantage (500%) on low matches.

Even when doing the EM-hotpicks, (if convinient) source the best book odds, as there is often a difference. AFAIK, EM-HP (5main) is the only lotto in the world that (guarantees) 1m notes for 5 from 50 (no stars), at low outlay of 1.50.