Share Picks 2019

Pussyhands

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Agreed, can't believe the recovery since January. 70% cash for now.

Trump will do anything he can to make sure the stock market is booming going into the election.

I think he's influenced Powell.

Cute Hoor

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Agreed, can't believe the recovery since January. 70% cash for now.

Why would you not continue to hold with trailing stops in place, that way you are riding the wave with a backstop in place.

Captainsatnav

I note that there are some comission free ETF trades offered by DeGiro - would anyone have any guidance / tips on how to take advantage?

q85dw7osi4lebg

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Why would you not continue to hold with trailing stops in place, that way you are riding the wave with a backstop in place.

Hopefully buying an investment property within a month or so and can't risk losing anything (need the leverage).

kaymin

ballyharpat wrote: »

I think the Irish REIT's are too small to be a worthwhile investment. I invested in NRF back in 2009/10, I made a killing as well as picking up a 10% div every year. If you can find an american one, it's worth looking at, again, the property market may be stagnant for a while, but they do have large dividends. I am holding enough cash to again purchase property in the next 24 months, I think we are going to see a downtrend in Ireland, REIT's reflect the downtrend faster than real property prices, they make it back faster as well though. It is a good way to speculate on property while remaining liquid and if you don't have enough to buy your own property/ies.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTU.L?p=INTU.L

Hammerson is also worth looking at - owns premium malls, shopping centres and some retail parks (which it is selling off). Trading at a 50% discount to NAV with a 7+% yield. Hammerson owns 50% of Dundrum SC. Half of its portfolio is in the UK though. An activist investor, Elliott Advisors, is pushing for debt paydown and for share buybacks to be stopped.

Drawback of course is the switch from the high street to online and the impact that will have on tenants and future rental income.

Mad_maxx

TG860 wrote: »

I feel IRES is the only well managed REIT in Ireland and I think their focus on residential property is a good pure play on the housing shortage in the Dublin area at the moment.

Green and Hibernia are more focused on commercial property and I get the sense they are more focused on wheeling and dealing for a short term profit than owning the properties for the rental income.
Effectively what's happened is they got some good deals on property when they were set up, but sold them for a windfall gain as property prices increased. The issue now is they have plenty of cash and debt facilities available but no good value properties are available to spend it on. The whole point of REITs is owning properties churning out stable income to pay out dividends from, so as you say, they're not really achieving what they're supposed to achieve.

IRES has still hugely underperformed relative to the actual property market

littlevillage

Today is looking bad. Only 1 of my 20-ish stocks held is green. The rest are unchanged or red.

leading the fall is VSTM down 6% :-(

whatever76

FANGS taking a hammering today with all the gains during the week …. MSFT hit over 120 $ … back to 117 now again … think its time to cash out .. something brewing and I aint no expert !

Cute Hoor

Cute Hoor wrote: »

A fair bit of activity on SEEL this morning, closed at $3.04, has traded over $7 already this morning, currently around $5.30, might be an opportunity for a quick in and out

More serious trading today, in/out opportunity.

awhir

ballyharpat wrote: »

I think the Irish REIT's are too small to be a worthwhile investment. I invested in NRF back in 2009/10, I made a killing as well as picking up a 10% div every year. If you can find an american one, it's worth looking at, again, the property market may be stagnant for a while, but they do have large dividends. I am holding enough cash to again purchase property in the next 24 months, I think we are going to see a downtrend in Ireland, REIT's reflect the downtrend faster than real property prices, they make it back faster as well though. It is a good way to speculate on property while remaining liquid and if you don't have enough to buy your own property/ies.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTU.L?p=INTU.L

Is there any indications of the REIT's currently on a downtrend? Out of interest, are there any other factors that you think are indicating to a downtrend in the housing market?

Supercell

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Agreed, can't believe the recovery since January. 70% cash for now.

Looking at today, I hope this isn't it, SPY was around this level back in December when it had a plunge for a few weeks. I'm staying out for a few days to see how this unfolds.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Supercell wrote: »

Looking at today, I hope this isn't it, SPY was around this level back in December when it had a plunge for a few weeks. I'm staying out for a few days to see how this unfolds.

Looking at bond yields in the headlines again today I think it's wise.

CIP4

Anyone know with degiro there are some companies which show up but don’t show a current price or any price info does that mean you can’t buy them on degiro ? You would see it with some companies that are listed on several stock exchanges and some will have current prices and one or two may have no price.

evolving_doors

CIP4 wrote: »

Anyone know with degiro there are some companies which show up but don’t show a current price or any price info does that mean you can’t buy them on degiro ? You would see it with some companies that are listed on several stock exchanges and some will have current prices and one or two may have no price.

Their prices aren't updated so just get the current price off the market like Bloomberg or yahoo and use that as your limit guide if buying or selling. These websites there's a 15min delay so you have to pay extra to get realtime. Forget about degiro and realtime, check your account the next day and you'll get yesterday's balance from the end of business.

Pussyhands

****e, wish I pulled all my stocks into cash yesterday while I was in profit. Now I'm in the red again.

Thargor

Is this because of the yield curve inversion stories that people are freaking out? Do you think this could be the start of something? Markets only lost a weeks gains...

q85dw7osi4lebg

Thargor wrote: »

Is this because of the yield curve inversion stories that people are freaking out? Do you think this could be the start of something? Markets only lost a weeks gains...

Definitely the reason. I think a rebound was expected after the October and Christmas drop followed by a reality check. We are at the latter part now. Trump will try his best to keep things looking swimmingly but he can't defy cyclical recessions and inverse yield curves.

Mad_maxx

Pussyhands wrote: »

****e, wish I pulled all my stocks into cash yesterday while I was in profit. Now I'm in the red again.

Portfolio was up 22% since Xmas, dropped hard past few days, europe is a mess

ballyharpat

awhir wrote: »

Is there any indications of the REIT's currently on a downtrend? Out of interest, are there any other factors that you think are indicating to a downtrend in the housing market?

IMO The housing market has no reason to go higher, it is already expensive to purchase for a homeowner, and investors are not getting a great return, even with rents gone up. Brexit is playing on the UK housing market and it's dropped or stabilised, Europe is stagnant in general, with car sales hurt, effecting Germany. The USA housing market has stabilised.

I think people are going to be holding cash waiting for stocks to drop, and if we are hit with a recession, people pull cash from everywhere to make ends meet, even if that means pulling it from a good stock/company, they will also pull from REIT's, same as every other stock.

Currently, I cannot see any house worth buying that would be a good investment for me, I look to make 10% on rent, and if the value of the property rises, it's a bonus, but not a necessity for me to purchase. I know some people purchase property for increase in value, and don't care about the yield, we're all different.

q85dw7osi4lebg

ballyharpat wrote: »

IMO The housing market has no reason to go higher, it is already expensive to purchase for a homeowner, and investors are not getting a great return, even with rents gone up. Brexit is playing on the UK housing market and it's dropped or stabilised, Europe is stagnant in general, with car sales hurt, effecting Germany. The USA housing market has stabilised.

I think people are going to be holding cash waiting for stocks to drop, and if we are hit with a recession, people pull cash from everywhere to make ends meet, even if that means pulling it from a good stock/company, they will also pull from REIT's, same as every other stock.

Currently, I cannot see any house worth buying that would be a good investment for me, I look to make 10% on rent, and if the value of the property rises, it's a bonus, but not a necessity for me to purchase. I know some people purchase property for increase in value, and don't care about the yield, we're all different.

Agree with all your points but have a look around Louth / East Meath on daft, I know people getting 10% + who only recently purchased.

Cute Hoor

Robert Mueller effect today in US, more next week?

ballyharpat

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Agree with all your points but have a look around Louth / East Meath on daft, I know people getting 10% + who only recently purchased.

Makes sense, probably Leitrim and Donegal as well. I'm in Kerry, no bargains left here, they've been snapped up. If I lived in one of those areas, I'd be buying for the yield for sure.

crushproof

Asia tumbling so looks like it's going to be a rocky week ahead, what are everyone's thoughts?

Bob Harris

crushproof wrote: »

Asia tumbling so looks like it's going to be a rocky week ahead, what are everyone's thoughts?

I thought the Trump ruling might help US stocks but after seeing China down 2% I'd say any effect it would have will be nullfied by wider economic concerns.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Definitely a red week ahead IMO.

Cute Hoor

littlevillage wrote: »

Got out of IFG today at €1.61 made a small profit (think it could be a major casuality of a messy Brexit)

Was a good move at the time, until today, one just never knows whats around the corner.

littlevillage

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Was a good move at the time, until today, one just never knows whats around the corner.

Yeah indeed, c'est la vie :rolleyes:

cefh17

DeGiro down for others?

q85dw7osi4lebg

cefh17 wrote: »

DeGiro down for others?

Often goes down between 11/11.30 for me briefly.

Bob Harris

Anyone know of any bargains or is it best to wait in the long grass?