Share Picks 2019

RedRochey

Read somewhere that bitcoin only moves when there is issues in China and rich Chinese are trying to get their money out through bitcoin futures.

I feel Trump has some kind of timeline for how he will manage this, got his rate cut on Wednesday so knew he had some goodwill to raise tariffs, knows he must get a deal done with China before the end of the year before the re-election campaign starts up again.

Or maybe since he got his rate cut on Wednesday he knew he could influence the Fed more and so increased tariffs again to mess with the economy and force the Fed to lower again?

Overall I think a lot of these issues could disappear overnight with Trump signing a deal with China

drunkmonkey

Well bitcoin has nose dived since I posted earlier, if my theory is right everything is ok in the world again and should be green across the board by the end of the day....

Cute Hoor

Burford taking an absolute hammering, down 20% today, down around 35% since it posted a cracking set (on the face of it) of results last week, nobody seems to be sure why, seems to be 2 possibilities

(1) Burford may be the company being referred to in this Muddy Water tweet ' MuddyWatersResearch @muddywatersre 1h Muddy Waters is now in a blackout period until tomorrow 8 am London time when we will announce a new short position on an accounting fiasco that is potentially insolvent and possibly facing a liquidity crunch. Investors are bulled up about this company. We're not.'

(2) Woodford being forced to sell

(3) Lord knows?

Might be an opportunity for a quick buck for those of you with balls of steel.

evolving_doors

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Sold Aphria at 15.



For a loss.

Ya think I might have tipped them unfortunately! Although I averaged down a little during the subsequent short nonsense. Still could be a nice long hold when/if regular quarterly profits start to kick in.

Anyone think canopy has had its day in the sun now that Constellation has fired Linton and wants to strip down for profits rather than expansion spending?

Anyone who reviews canopies products never really sing their praises and Aphria/Broken Coast seem to be the connoisseur's choice!

It's funny how the faintest whiff of -much awaited- profits in just one company has caused a rising tide overall. May be a good omen for things to come.

Anyone here get in early with Canopy and thinking of jumping ship?

BrokenArrows

BrokenArrows wrote: »

I wasn't too keen on the way markets were shaping up a few weeks ago so I moved my pension find into the SL BlackRock gold and general pension fund.

Seems like I couldn't have timed it better.

This fund is very volatile but is a good earner when **** hits the fan, and it's been my go to fund in times of trouble for years.

It mainly invests in gold miners, so is indirectly affected by the gold price.

Just need to see whats happening over the next few weeks.

I've decided to move the pension into a maintenance fund(fund that maintains money via cash deposits) for a while until I see what the markets are doing.

It should be moved into the fund when the markets open on Thursday. There is a 2 day delay on changing funds.

I'm not expecting any big movements tomorrow.

I made enough over the past few weeks to more than cover my required yearly return on my pension. So I'm playing it safe and seeing what happens.

One of my big strategies for the pension is to try and avoid losing money during times of uncertainty, even of it means not making money for that period either.

Umaro

Few hard-luck stories getting posted, thought I'd share my own:


Put a substantial 5-figure sum into a selection of shares and investment funds a year ago. After 5 months there was the Dec 2018 collapse and I was -15%. Held my nerve and it slowly climbed back up over the past 7 months to +5%. Now the wheels have come off again and I'm at -10% and the knife seems to be still be dropping.

Seriously disheartening stuff to have rode it out, and now seeing all the gains washed away yet again. Sigh.

hottipper

Stop losses are key and keep moving them up so they are stops in profit.
if you miss an entry never chase it find another one.
Take profits and withdraw!!
Never expose your full account to more than a 5% loss.
Never risk your entire balance in a single trade.
Cut your losers quick and let your winners run.

Jim2007

hottipper wrote: »

Stop losses are key and keep moving them up so they are stops in profit.
if you miss an entry never chase it find another one.
Take profits and withdraw!!
Never expose your full account to more than a 5% loss.
Never risk your entire balance in a single trade.
Cut your losers quick and let your winners run.

And above all make a list of traders who have grown wealth over a 20 year period as a motivational tool. The back of a matchbox should provide sufficient space.

There is only one way to consistently make money out of trading and that is to be the one selling the picks and shovels.

RedRochey

BrokenArrows wrote: »

One of my big strategies for the pension is to try and avoid losing money during times of uncertainty, even of it means not making money for that period either.

Sounds an awful lot like market timing?

If you've more than 20 years left to retirement I can't see why you would even bother trying to actively manage your pension

BrokenArrows

StockTwat29 wrote: »

Sounds an awful lot like market timing?

If you've more than 20 years left to retirement I can't see why you would even bother trying to actively manage your pension

Because I've set myself a goal for retirement which won't be achieved if left to market averages until retirement.

I started my pension a bit late so once I get to a certain value I will just leave it alone. It's been working well for me the last 4 years with 20% returns per year. But I guess those were in times of huge growth, let's see if it continues.

Mad_maxx

Jim2007 wrote: »

And above all make a list of traders who have grown wealth over a 20 year period as a motivational tool. The back of a matchbox should provide sufficient space.

There is only one way to consistently make money out of trading and that is to be the one selling the picks and shovels.

You would not need to be too much of a genius to trade the euro stoxx 600 this
Past four years, the range it's been in has been extremely predictable, it never goes above 31 and rarely goes below 25 ( Amsterdam listing)

By contrast, nobody has made any money owning the stoxx 600 for nearly twenty years in terms of capital gains with a " buy and hold" strategy

Toobz

Anyone think AMD looks overbought on the 6 month chart?

letitroll

Folks quick Q for experienced traders to see if I’m missing something

Take a company primarily listed on the Irish stock exchange but also traded on the LSE.

If everything else being equal - price, liquidity, volume etc....am I right in saying that it’s a no brainer to purchase on LSE given 0.5% stamp duty vs 1% on Irish exchange???

Am i missing something???

Thargor

letitroll wrote: »

Folks quick Q for experienced traders to see if I’m missing something

Take a company primarily listed on the Irish stock exchange but also traded on the LSE.

If everything else being equal - price, liquidity, volume etc....am I right in saying that it’s a no brainer to purchase on LSE given 0.5% stamp duty vs 1% on Irish exchange???

Am i missing something???

Massive devaluation of Sterling? Could go the other way when the inevitable deal is signed though, but its mainly currency risk you're adding into the equation.

letitroll

Thargor wrote: »

Massive devaluation of Sterling? Could go the other way when the inevitable deal is signed though, but its mainly currency risk you're adding into the equation.

Shares I'm looking at are traded in Euro's on the LSE - so again no currency risk unless I've missed something?

Looking at Ryanair etc. all in Euro's whether Ryanair IRL or Ryanair LSE. Sound right?

littlevillage

letitroll wrote: »

Shares I'm looking at are traded in Euro's on the LSE - so again no currency risk unless I've missed something?

Looking at Ryanair etc. all in Euro's whether Ryanair IRL or Ryanair LSE. Sound right?

Has anyone read the notice on DeGiro titled

"Important information about Brexit"

It appears that if there is a no deal Brexit and an equivalence status aggreement can't be sorted out, companies with dual listing in Ireland (or anywhere in EU) and UK might have problems and have to buy back one set of their shares. Could be messy. :eek:


I don't think it matters if the listing is just UK ...then its the same as any other third country like US , Austraila etc.

XMG

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Burford taking an absolute hammering, down 20% today, down around 35% since it posted a cracking set (on the face of it) of results last week, nobody seems to be sure why, seems to be 2 possibilities

(1) Burford may be the company being referred to in this Muddy Water tweet ' MuddyWatersResearch @muddywatersre 1h Muddy Waters is now in a blackout period until tomorrow 8 am London time when we will announce a new short position on an accounting fiasco that is potentially insolvent and possibly facing a liquidity crunch. Investors are bulled up about this company. We're not.'

(2) Woodford being forced to sell

(3) Lord knows?

Might be an opportunity for a quick buck for those of you with balls of steel.

Burford’s rebuttal, make of it what you will
https://www.burfordcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/2019.08.08-Burford-Capital-Response-to-Muddy-Waters-FINAL-1.pdf

XMG

XMG wrote: »

My broker basically said get in line with everyone else, chances are slim to none

Finally got some shorts on Beyond Meat, rode it down from $165 to $159, took 80% off there and will see how the rest does tomorrow. The honeymoon is over?

q85dw7osi4lebg

XMG wrote: »

Finally got some shorts on Beyond Meat, rode it down from $165 to $159, took 80% off there and will see how the rest does tomorrow. The honeymoon is over?

Can see it going the way of Tilray.

Mickiemcfist

XMG wrote: »

Finally got some shorts on Beyond Meat, rode it down from $165 to $159, took 80% off there and will see how the rest does tomorrow. The honeymoon is over?

Could I ask what broker you're with? Looking to short Netflix.

XMG

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Could I ask what broker you're with? Looking to short Netflix.

I'm with Interactive Brokers. I see they currently have over 13 million Netflix shorts available so would imagine any broker would have shorts available?

zpehtsfd

XMG wrote: »

Finally got some shorts on Beyond Meat, rode it down from $165 to $159, took 80% off there and will see how the rest does tomorrow. The honeymoon is over?

How much was the Borrow Fee?

Mad_maxx

Anyone else own smurfit kappa, it's my largest position but a hard company to own, low volume so extremely volatile for a well established big company.

It's very cheap but never seems to get rewarded in the way the likes of kingspan does

Debt is high but debt is very cheap these days

q85dw7osi4lebg

Officially holding nothing but Bitcoin and Real Goods Solar now (bag holding).

Not purchasing anything until 2020 now, staying on the sidelines.

Cute Hoor

XMG wrote: »

Burford’s rebuttal, make of it what you will
https://www.burfordcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/2019.08.08-Burford-Capital-Response-to-Muddy-Waters-FINAL-1.pdf

A fairly robust defense and it seems to have settled the SP somewhat, it will be interesting to see if BUR go after MW, they have a lot of legal eagles at their disposal. MW have made a fairly seriously killing in this obviously, but there must be serious question marks over how this happened, particularly between 13:30 on Tuesday (tweet time) and 9:00 on Wednesday when they released the brief.

It certainly has been a roller coaster couple of days!!

Cute Hoor

Osram

Carlyle Group & Bain are offering €35 per share for Osram (OSR), offer accepted by the supervisory and management boards of Osram, offer is subject to receiving 70% acceptance by early September.
They had only 0.9% acceptances by last Friday, probably wouldn't be that unusual that it's so low at that stage.

AllianzGI, who own a 9.3% stake in Osram, have said that Osram shares were worth more than had been offered and it was not inclined to accept the bid, despite the board of management and supervisory board recommending it to shareholders - interestingly they haven't (afaik) stated definitively that they will not be accepting the offer. When AllianzGI took its stake above 5% in 2017, Osram shares were trading at €67. And when it raised the stake again late last year, they were trading at about €40, so presumably they stand to make a significant loss if the €35 offer is accepted.

AMS are also sniffing around Osram, making an offer valuing Osram's shares at €38.50. Osram queried AMS's ability to fund the deal and AMS's interest seems to have waned somewhat. On Tuesday AMS said it had been engaged in discussions with Osram, but that “following an evaluation of recent developments AMS does not see a sufficient basis for continuing these discussions”. Again it doesn't appear to be definitively ruling out continuing interest.

After the AllianzGI pronouncement the OSR share price dropped by about 10%, they are trading around €31.60 at the moment, they were at €30.70 earlier in the day.

Carlyle & Bain have obviously put a fair investment into reaching this stage so I'd imagine they would be reluctant to walk away now and there could also be rival bid(s).

Should be an opportunity here to make 10% by year end with limited risk.

ScottCapper

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Osram

Carlyle Group & Bain are offering €35 per share for Osram (OSR), offer accepted by the supervisory and management boards of Osram, offer is subject to receiving 70% acceptance by early September.
They had only 0.9% acceptances by last Friday, probably wouldn't be that unusual that it's so low at that stage.

AllianzGI, who own a 9.3% stake in Osram, have said that Osram shares were worth more than had been offered and it was not inclined to accept the bid, despite the board of management and supervisory board recommending it to shareholders - interestingly they haven't (afaik) stated definitively that they will not be accepting the offer. When AllianzGI took its stake above 5% in 2017, Osram shares were trading at €67. And when it raised the stake again late last year, they were trading at about €40, so presumably they stand to make a significant loss if the €35 offer is accepted.

AMS are also sniffing around Osram, making an offer valuing Osram's shares at €38.50. Osram queried AMS's ability to fund the deal and AMS's interest seems to have waned somewhat. On Tuesday AMS said it had been engaged in discussions with Osram, but that “following an evaluation of recent developments AMS does not see a sufficient basis for continuing these discussions”. Again it doesn't appear to be definitively ruling out continuing interest.

After the AllianzGI pronouncement the OSR share price dropped by about 10%, they are trading around €31.60 at the moment, they were at €30.70 earlier in the day.

Carlyle & Bain have obviously put a fair investment into reaching this stage so I'd imagine they would be reluctant to walk away now and there could also be rival bid(s).

Should be an opportunity here to make 10% by year end with limited risk.

off topic: I love David Rubenstein

NoteAgent

Jim2007 wrote: »

And above all make a list of traders who have grown wealth over a 20 year period as a motivational tool. The back of a matchbox should provide sufficient space.

There is only one way to consistently make money out of trading and that is to be the one selling the picks and shovels.

The list of TRADERS who have made enormous wealth is tiny relative to the amount of long-term INVESTORS who have made enourmous wealth though.

Cute Hoor

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Osram

Carlyle Group & Bain are offering €35 per share for Osram (OSR), offer accepted by the supervisory and management boards of Osram, offer is subject to receiving 70% acceptance by early September.
They had only 0.9% acceptances by last Friday, probably wouldn't be that unusual that it's so low at that stage.

AllianzGI, who own a 9.3% stake in Osram, have said that Osram shares were worth more than had been offered and it was not inclined to accept the bid, despite the board of management and supervisory board recommending it to shareholders - interestingly they haven't (afaik) stated definitively that they will not be accepting the offer. When AllianzGI took its stake above 5% in 2017, Osram shares were trading at €67. And when it raised the stake again late last year, they were trading at about €40, so presumably they stand to make a significant loss if the €35 offer is accepted.

AMS are also sniffing around Osram, making an offer valuing Osram's shares at €38.50. Osram queried AMS's ability to fund the deal and AMS's interest seems to have waned somewhat. On Tuesday AMS said it had been engaged in discussions with Osram, but that “following an evaluation of recent developments AMS does not see a sufficient basis for continuing these discussions”. Again it doesn't appear to be definitively ruling out continuing interest.

After the AllianzGI pronouncement the OSR share price dropped by about 10%, they are trading around €31.60 at the moment, they were at €30.70 earlier in the day.

Carlyle & Bain have obviously put a fair investment into reaching this stage so I'd imagine they would be reluctant to walk away now and there could also be rival bid(s).

Should be an opportunity here to make 10% by year end with limited risk.

It didn't take long to get that 10% return, Osram up 10% this morning, currently trading at €34.75, after AMS offered €38.50 per share. Might still be a bit to go on this with a good possibility that Carlyle/Bain will increase their offer.

ballyharpat

Cute Hoor wrote: »

It didn't take long to get that 10% return, Osram up 10% this morning, currently trading at €34.75, after AMS offered €38.50 per share. Might still be a bit to go on this with a good possibility that Carlyle/Bain will increase their offer.

and AMS down 10%, ive held them for a while, this could make or break them......i think they are overpaying, unless they have and make public the partner they may have helping them with finance.