6 Nations 2019 Build Up thread

Clegg

Scotland blindside Ryan Wilson damaged knee ligaments last Saturday and will miss the rest of the Six Nations. Scotland have been wrecked by injury, particularly in the backrow where John Barclay, Hamish Watson, Sam Skinner, Dave Denton, Blade Thomson, John Hardie and Magnus Bradbury also already missing.

Huw Jones and Stuart Hogg picked up injuries to their knee and shoulder respectively. Don't know the prognosis yet.

Eod100

swiwi_ wrote: »

To win the RWC England have to beat Argentina, France, Australia/Wales/(Fiji), semifinal (NZ if games go to rankings, other possible opponents include SA or Ireland) then final in 5 consecutive games. Would be worthy winners if they did so.

6N has been pretty disappointing to date. England have been good, everyone else mediocre to poor. If England beat Wales, tournament is wrapped up by round 3. Was hoping for more after the autumn internationals tbh.

So could be NZ v Scotland qf, vs winner of (likely) England v Wales in sf. There's no easy side of a draw at a RWC but that could be tough draw for England. Early days yet sure!

Yeah it's been a bit of an anti-climax. I don't think playing England for our last game last season and first this one helped. That said can't play in same order every year. Hard to see past England for GS unless Wales or Scotland cause an upset which looks unlikely. Don't think 6Ns in RWC years have ever been vintage but still!

krupta

Congratulations England

troyzer

Stole this sneaky gem from Reddit.

Gas craic.

Using advanced mathematics I've determined not only that England will win but the margin by which they will.

If we look at England's last three 6N wins the scores are:

12-6

20-32

44-8

The margins of victory here are 6, 12, 36. There's a clear pattern here. Each game is won by the margin of the previous game multiplied by the number tjr game is in the sequence.

In the first game they won by 6.

Game 2 was won by 2x6 = 12.

Game 3 was won by 3x12 = 36.

The pattern is clear. England will win by a 4x36 = 144 point margin against Wales.

thomond2006

Halfpenny is back available for Wales and Mako Vunipola has just been ruled of the tournament. Suddenly England's trip looks a lot tougher.

Buer

I would be surprised if Halfpenny starts a game in this tournament even if available.

Faletau needs another operation on his arm ruling him out of a potential comeback before the end of the tournament.

Bad day for the Faletau/Vunipola clan.

Squidgy Black

Odds on France getting the wooden spoon?

They'll still probably give us a shock, in the one game of the tournament they'll show up for, but despite Italy being absolutely terrible I've a feeling France could really throw it away.

thomond2006

No changes to the French extended squad for the Scotland game.

Poirot, Priso,
Guirado, Bourgarit, Chat,
Atonio, Bamba, Aldegheri ;
Lambey, Vahaamahina, Willemse ;
Iturria, Camara, Lauret, Alldritt, Sanconnie, Picamoles.

Parra, Dupont, Serin,
Lopez, Belleau ;
Doumayrou, Fofana, Bastareaud, Ntamack ;
Penaud, Fickou, Huget, Ramos, Medard

With 31 players there's plenty scope to make changes to the matchday 23 but naming the same extended squad isn't a good sign. The experienced heads who failed miserably against England should have been dropped.

jr86

Would I correct in saying that since the remarkable last day in 2015 the 6n title has been wrapped up before the last week each of the last 3 seasons? The same will happen if England beat Wales this year. Credit to them, they will then have won 3 handy 6ns out of 4.

Exclamation Marc

jr86 wrote: »

Would I correct in saying that since the remarkable last day in 2015 the 6n title has been wrapped up before the last week each of the last 3 seasons? The same will happen if England beat Wales this year. Credit to them, they will then have won 3 handy 6ns out of 4.

That's correct. It's actually quite hard to think back to the maximum 10 point system. Five on field points swing during the Wales v Ireland match during the tournament potentially being the difference between first and third place finish back in 2015

aloooof

Exclamation Marc wrote: »

That's correct. It's actually quite hard to think back to the maximum 10 point system. Five on field points swing during the Wales v Ireland match during the tournament potentially being the difference between first and third place finish back in 2015

We've been on both sides of this; the 2014 and 2015 were both won on points difference, but specifically thinking Heaslips try-saving tackle on Hogg, and also the 2007 6 Nations where we conceded a last minute try to Italy AND France scored a last minute try. Not to mention the try on 78 minutes vs France in Croker... Only for the England game, that would've been a particularly brutal year.

Dave_The_Sheep

So, Hogg out for the rest of the Six Nations at least, as feared.

Eod100

jr86 wrote: »

Would I correct in saying that since the remarkable last day in 2015 the 6n title has been wrapped up before the last week each of the last 3 seasons? The same will happen if England beat Wales this year. Credit to them, they will then have won 3 handy 6ns out of 4.

Guess it's fairly safe to say they will get 5 points vs Italy so yeah will finish on 14/15 after Wales match, then 19/20 before Scotland game.

Surely on course for a GS way they're playing too? Bar an upset from the Scots or Welsh.

Burkie1203

Dave_The_Sheep wrote: »

So, Hogg out for the rest of the Six Nations at least, as feared.

https://twitter.com/MailSport/status/1095782208986587136?s=19

Talk that he might not make the RWC

Eod100

Burkie1203 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MailSport/status/1095782208986587136?s=19

Talk that he might not make the RWC

Big loss for Glasgow if he's out for rest of season and their qf against Saracens.

Dave_The_Sheep

Burkie1203 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MailSport/status/1095782208986587136?s=19

Talk that he might not make the RWC

Didn't want to link to the mail, tbh, but yeah. I read that too. Serious loss for Scotland, out of such an innoccuous yet still illegal block. Happens plenty of times a game in similar ways, but this one ends in a potentially career ending injury (practically).

Yeah_Right

Am I the only one that thinks there is a bit of karma involved in Hogg being injured? He's a very talented player and great to watch but there have been numerous times that he has thrown himself to the ground like Neymar, trying to milk a penalty. And this time he hurt himself.

Also that Super Saturday match in Murrayfield when Ireland won the 6N; he twice jumped up claiming tries that he knew he didn't score. What made it worse was the look on his face and the shake of his head when the TMO said no try. WTF?!?

kuang1

Yeah_Right wrote: »

Am I the only one that thinks there is a bit of karma involved in Hogg being injured? He's a very talented player and great to watch but there have been numerous times that he has thrown himself to the ground like Neymar, trying to milk a penalty. And this time he hurt himself.

Also that Super Saturday match in Murrayfield when Ireland won the 6N; he twice jumped up claiming tries that he knew he didn't score. What made it worse was the look on his face and the shake of his head when the TMO said no try. WTF?!?

No you are not the only one.
Himself and Laidlaw are 2 figures that have always rubbed me the wrong way.
Wouldn't have wished this injury on him mind. But he has been very fond of playing the victim at times as you say.

Anjobe

Yeah_Right wrote: »

Am I the only one that thinks there is a bit of karma involved in Hogg being injured? He's a very talented player and great to watch but there have been numerous times that he has thrown himself to the ground like Neymar, trying to milk a penalty. And this time he hurt himself.

Also that Super Saturday match in Murrayfield when Ireland won the 6N; he twice jumped up claiming tries that he knew he didn't score. What made it worse was the look on his face and the shake of his head when the TMO said no try. WTF?!?

kuang1 wrote: »

No you are not the only one.
Himself and Laidlaw are 2 figures that have always rubbed me the wrong way.
Wouldn't have wished this injury on him mind. But he has been very fond of playing the victim at times as you say.

Ever heard of magnanimity and sportsmanship?

Former Former

Yeah_Right wrote: »

Am I the only one that thinks there is a bit of karma involved in Hogg being injured? He's a very talented player and great to watch but there have been numerous times that he has thrown himself to the ground like Neymar, trying to milk a penalty. And this time he hurt himself.

Also that Super Saturday match in Murrayfield when Ireland won the 6N; he twice jumped up claiming tries that he knew he didn't score. What made it worse was the look on his face and the shake of his head when the TMO said no try. WTF?!?

So he's a bit of a d**k. Every team has them.

I don't think that means he deserves to have his Six Nations ended by a cheap shot.

thomond2006

Huw Jones has a knee ligament injury too. Poor Scotland. Injuries have ruined them.

irelandrover

Eod100 wrote: »

Guess it's fairly safe to say they will get 5 points vs Italy so yeah will finish on 14/15 after Wales match, then 19/20 before Scotland game.

Surely on course for a GS way they're playing too? Bar an upset from the Scots or Welsh.

Would Wales beating England really be an upset?

They are on a fanatstic run themselves and are at home. For me Wales would be favourites for the game.

troyzer

irelandrover wrote: »

Would Wales beating England really be an upset?

They are on a fanatstic run themselves and are at home. For me Wales would be favourites for the game.

Wales haven't really had a convincing win in a while.

razorblunt

thomond2006 wrote: »

Huw Jones has a knee ligament injury too. Poor Scotland. Injuries have ruined them.

Jones has been poor enough though. Might be a blessing in disguise.
Not sure who's next in line with Scott following HIA, Chris Dean perhaps?

sydthebeat

troyzer wrote: »

Wales haven't really had a convincing win in a while.

they beat australia and south africa less than 3 months ago.

troyzer

sydthebeat wrote: »

they beat australia and south africa less than 3 months ago.

They barely beat Australia who are ****e.

South Africa is probably the only team worth mentioning but they were missing their best player and several others were left out of the starting XV. They were rotating quite a bit.

Burkie1203

sydthebeat wrote: »

they beat australia and south africa less than 3 months ago.

They relied on France beating France to actually beat France.

England demolished France

England by 12

sydthebeat

troyzer wrote: »

They barely beat Australia who are ****e.

South Africa is probably the only team worth mentioning but they were missing their best player and several others were left out of the starting XV. They were rotating quite a bit.

dont know why your trying to make excuses.

Wales are ranked 4th in the world, less than half a point behind England and are on an 11 game unbeaten streak.

if they beat them it absolutely will not be an upset, which is the point being argued.

sydthebeat

Burkie1203 wrote: »

They relied on France beating France to actually beat France.

England demolished France

England by 12

ill take wales +12 then.....

want to make a charity bet on this?

Exclamation Marc

England have had two phenomenonally good games but if they were upended by a team ranked one place below them who are on an 11 game winning streak and playing at home, it would be far from an upset.

troyzer

sydthebeat wrote: »

dont know why your trying to make excuses.

Wales are ranked 4th in the world, less than half a point behind England and are on an 11 game unbeaten streak.

if they beat them it absolutely will not be an upset, which is the point being argued.

I'm not trying to make excuses. I said they haven't had a convincing win and I stand by that. South Africa weren't at full strength and it took a last minute Bigga penalty for Wales to beat a very, very, historically poor Australian team. At home.

In addition to these, the 11 game win streak has included the following:

Italy, France (by 1 point), an experimental South African team in America (and needed a 74th minute try to do so), Argentina, Scotland (missing their overseas players), the two games already mentioned, Tonga, France again (who beat themselves) and a hairy game against a poor Italy.

They haven't really been tested over those 11 tests by a top side like England, Ireland, New Zealand or a full strength South African team.

sydthebeat

"not trying to make excuses".... followed by a post full of excuses?

It wouldnt be an upset if wales beat England at the millenium.
Yes, of course england are deserved favourites on current form, but no better guy than gatland to find holes in their systems.
Coupled with England loosing players while wales are back gaining first teamers.

the bookies have only got 3 points between them currently... so if you fancy england that strongly youd get great odds.

troyzer

sydthebeat wrote: »

"not trying to make excuses".... followed by a post full of excuses?

It wouldnt be an upset if wales beat England at the millenium.
Yes, of course england are deserved favourites on current form, but no better guy than gatland to find holes in their systems.
Coupled with England loosing players while wales are back gaining first teamers.

the bookies have only got 3 points between them currently... so if you fancy england that strongly youd get great odds.

My statement was that I don't think they've had a convincing win. You called bull****.

I gave you my reasons for why I don't think any of their wins are convincing.

It would be an upset if Wales beat them but I don't think it's impossible. England are the deserved favourites and I don't think Wales recent track record shows how good or bad they are either way. They've had a LOT of soft games compared to the other top nations and still have a lot of question marks all over the pitch.

Yeah_Right

Anjobe wrote: »

Ever heard of magnanimity and sportsmanship?

To quote Richard Loe, "there's a place for sportsmanship in the game. When you're 40 points up and there's 5 minutes left".

sydthebeat

troyzer wrote: »

I gave you my reasons for why I don't think any of their wins are convincing.
.

to be honest ive no interest in arguing over subjective options as to what you think is convincing or not. im sure lots of wales fans were delighted with that horrible 9 -6 win over australia ... given their previous long run of games between them

the point i was picking up on was the poster who questioned if wales beating england would be an upset... and in my option theres not that much between them for it to be considered an upset.

aloooof

troyzer wrote: »

It would be an upset if Wales beat them but I don't think it's impossible. England are the deserved favourites and I don't think Wales recent track record shows how good or bad they are either way.

I think it just comes down to your definition of an upset. Personally, I don't see a narrow favourite beating a rival as an upset. To me, an upset is more akin to, say, if Italy beat England. Or even Scotland beating them in Twickenham, given the history.

Anjobe

Yeah_Right wrote: »

To quote Richard Loe, "there's a place for sportsmanship in the game. When you're 40 points up and there's 5 minutes left".

After you've actually won the game is an even stronger position isn't it?

jr86

If I'm not mistaken Wales's only home loss in the 6 nations this side of the last World Cup was against England in 2017 where they were much the better side and pretty much threw it away

Very hard one to call for me. Wales always raise their game in Cardiff. I could well see them sneaking this

Burkie1203

https://twitter.com/SDM_Robertson/status/1096012562527895552?s=19

molloyjh

jr86 wrote: »

If I'm not mistaken Wales's only home loss in the 6 nations this side of the last World Cup was against England in 2017 where they were much the better side and pretty much threw it away

Very hard one to call for me. Wales always raise their game in Cardiff. I could well see them sneaking this

That was also the only time they’ve played England in Cardiff since the last RWC. England have won their last 2 games in Cardiff and have won the last 4 in a row against Wales.

Clegg

Ellis Genge was injured in England's training session today. With Vunipola already out for the rest of the Six Nations England are starting to look light at loose head

Eod100

irelandrover wrote: »

Would Wales beating England really be an upset?

They are on a fanatstic run themselves and are at home. For me Wales would be favourites for the game.

Maybe upset a strong word. But based on their current form, England would be heavily favourites

sydthebeat

Eod100 wrote: »

Maybe upset a strong word. But based on their current form, England would be heavily favourites

They're not really.... Only 3 points favourites

Burkie1203

Halfpenny left out by Scarlets after a setback apparently

Burkie1203

https://twitter.com/btsportrugby/status/1096793445765648385?s=19

Buer

The likes of the IRFU and WRU will be bringing that footage to their player contract negotiations.

Eod100

Buer wrote: »

The likes of the IRFU and WRU will be bringing that footage to their player contract negotiations.

I guess the against England thing rubs it in too. Weren't going to release him either way but even less likely when it's vs England

Eod100

Buer wrote: »

The likes of the IRFU and WRU will be bringing that footage to their player contract negotiations.

SRU could be added to the list. On separate injury news, Ashton out for Wales game.

https://www.rte.ie/sport/rugby/2019/0217/1031172-finn-russell-an-injury-doubt-for-scotland/

Burkie1203

Buer wrote: »

The likes of the IRFU and WRU will be bringing that footage to their player contract negotiations.

Finn Russell went off for HIA yesterday and didn't come back.

Anjobe

Biggar should be OK, but surely Anscombe will start?