Liverpool FC Team Talk, Gossip, Rumours 2019

murpho999

HandsomeBob wrote: »

And they were dumb odds with a third of season to go. The premier league is one of those rarified occurrences where even the bookies have something to gain by fueling a false narrative.

Also it's a market, driven by how people are betting and not an actual scientific statement of probability to happen as many see it as.

Osmosis Jones

15 games in City had +15 GD on us and we said it was insurmountable. By the end of game 19 the difference was 0.

Tipsy McSwagger

So many empty seats

martingriff

Turtyturd wrote: »

They’ll hire Klopp after we get Conte.

I have not been on the thread for a while as a knew it would resemble a war zone but have to ask what is this Conte

kingshankly

HandsomeBob wrote: »

And they were dumb odds with a third of season to go. The premier league is one of those rarified occurrences where even the bookies have something to gain by fueling a false narrative.

That is a stupid statement odds are an indication of a probability of something happening these odd were very similar among 100s of different betting companies which most of them have their own odds compilers some companies would have dozens of odds compilers so your saying between all these odds compilers they put Liverpool up at a false price thus making city and everyone else a bigger price !!! For what reason????

kingshankly

murpho999 wrote: »

Also it's a market, driven by how people are betting and not an actual scientific statement of probability to happen as many see it as.

More bull**** it’s exactly a probability of what will happen

Ronan|Raven

Well feck Chelsea. Could they roll onto their backs and show their supple tummies anymore...?

martingriff

Disagreeing of Odds on a bookmakers is as stupid as saying we are finished just because of a bit of a slump. I am not going to say we will win it but I have a belief the team can do it and will carry that belief in to every game we play we can win.

jayo26

martingriff wrote: »

Disagreeing of Odds on a bookmakers is as stupid as saying we are finished just because of a bit of a slump. I am not going to say we will win it but I have a belief the team can do it and will carry that belief in to every game we play we can win.

So your favourites then?

Turtyturd

Have that shower won a few games recently?

Turtyturd

martingriff wrote: »

I have not been on the thread for a while as a knew it would resemble a war zone but have to ask what is this Conte

As below.

ebbsy wrote: »

We have to do our own business. No point in looking at other teams if we can't win ourselves.

Have to win on Saturday. Klopp has to show he can win the league this year.

No more **** draws. No more scoring first and fizzling out.

If he doesn't win Saturday then get Conte. He will drag us over the line this year.

Owl.

jayo26 wrote: »

So your favourites then?

His favourites what?

marno21

Osmosis Jones wrote: »

15 games in City had +15 GD on us and we said it was insurmountable. By the end of game 19 the difference was 0.

If Fernandinho managed to miss a few weeks like he did over Xmas all bets are off again

HandsomeBob

kingshankly wrote: »

That is a stupid statement odds are an indication of a probability of something happening these odd were very similar among 100s of different betting companies which most of them have their own odds compilers some companies would have dozens of odds compilers so your saying between all these odds compilers they put Liverpool up at a false price thus making city and everyone else a bigger price !!! For what reason????

Paddy power were offering to pay out on Liverpool as league winners had they beaten City. In other words dangling a carrott to suck in some dim punters with more money than sense willing to take on or double up on their bet. If you don't think marketing plays a role in the book they are offering on certain outcomes well yes....stupidity indeed.

Fair play if you think Liverpool being 1/4, less than two weeks ago as you claimed, was purely down to probability.

kingshankly

kingshankly wrote: »

More bull**** it’s exactly a probability of what will happen

Well, there's also the over round (bookies margin) but the odds are a best estimate if the likely occurrence, indeed.
Bookies won't price up a league title race incorrectly to much degree.
When we were 1/4 we were expected to win from that situation 80% of the time excluding bookies margin.

marklazarcovic

Jose back for a 3rd Chelsea stint ,sarri won't last

kingshankly

Augeo wrote: »

Well, there's also the over round (bookies margin) but the odds are a best estimate if the likely occurrence, indeed.
Bookies won't price up a league title race incorrectly to much degree.
When we were 1/4 we were expected to win from that situation 80% of the time excluding bookies margin.

Each event is priced up to probably 112-115% so the statement that odds were just short on Liverpool to suit a narrative is just ridiculous

BorneTobyWilde

Chelsea looked like champions until Hazard threw his teddy and Sarri called him out publicly on it. If Alex Ferguson had Hazard at United he'd have thrown more than a air dryer at him. He'd be out on his ear like Beckham, Stap, Nistelrooy, Keane so on. Nowadays a player like Hazard is calling the shots and dragging the club, fans and manager down when he feels like it. GET RID!

.....the 1/4 odds were of course far from best price. Some bookies didn't want to take money on us so went shorter then others

I'm almost sure 1/3 was available....

kingshankly

kingshankly wrote: »

Each event is priced up to probably 112-115% so the statement that odds were just short on Liverpool to suit a narrative is just ridiculous

I 100% agree with you.
Many don't understand betting, odds ...probability etc

Some had city down as favourites when we were 1/3 for example....try and fathom that

Charlie19

3 hat tricks for Aguero this season.

murpho999

kingshankly wrote: »

More bull**** it’s exactly a probability of what will happen

No it's not.

In a hypothetical situation if loads of people just suddenly started to bet on Cardiff to win the premiership now with large amounts of cash then their odds of winning with the bookies would decline rapidly even though there is zero chance of it happening.

Bookies offer odds on how much money they stand to gain or lose not on the actual probability.

BorneTobyWilde

United have seen a huge swing in bets for them. Taking more money that Spurs, crazy what loyal fans will do with their money.

kingshankly

murpho999 wrote: »

No it's not.

In a hypothetical situation if loads of people just suddenly started to bet on Cardiff to win the premiership now with large amounts of cash then their odds of winning with the bookies would decline rapidly even though there is zero chance of it happening.

Bookies offer odds on how much money they stand to gain or lose not on the actual probability.

Nonsense that may be they case for horseracing when your dealing with unknowns but not with football as there is no such thing as inside information

SteM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

United have seen a huge swing in bets for them. Taking more money that Spurs, crazy what loyal fans will do with their money.

The caption just says most popular bets but what's the bet? People putting money on United finishing top 4 I'd imagine.

eigrod

SteM wrote: »

The caption just says most popular bets but what's the bet? People putting money on United finishing top 4 I'd imagine.

Or to win games, in which case they’d be up quite a bit over the last 9 or 10 games.

martingriff

jayo26 wrote: »

So your favourites then?

yes

HandsomeBob

Have from a good source shortest odds we hit was 2/5

SlickRic

Either City or Chelsea fans singing the slipping Gerrard song.

Whoever it is really should be worrying about something else.

BorneTobyWilde

SteM wrote: »

The caption just says most popular bets but what's the bet? People putting money on United finishing top 4 I'd imagine.

That graph was to win League out right .

kingshankly

HandsomeBob wrote: »

Have from a good source shortest odds we hit was 2/5

1/4 on 30/1/19

jayo26

SlickRic wrote: »

Either City or Chelsea fans singing the slipping Gerrard song.

Whoever it is really should be worrying about something else.

I'd say it's city fans having bit of fun watching the team winning by a large margin and going back top of the table and getting another top six game out of the way.

Wouldn't say they have much to worry about now defending champions in a final of a cup competition and still in fa cup and still in Europe and second favourite to win the league!!!!

HandsomeBob

HandsomeBob wrote: »

Have from a good source shortest odds we hit was 2/5

Mmmmm

I reckon your source isn't great.

1/3 wasn't even the worst price when I looked at odds checker that particular day...https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=109281830&postcount=3251

HandsomeBob

Amazing this game was a goal difference job.

HandsomeBob

kingshankly wrote: »

1/4 on 30/1/19

Well demonstrated.

Tipsy McSwagger

City are favourites now and that’s a good thing for LFC. When we were favourites we got nervous and sloppy.

Speak Now

Checked betfair and 1/3 is the lowest we've traded, 1/5 is the lowest City were.

awec

Tipsy McSwagger wrote: »

City are favourites now and that’s a good thing for LFC. When we were favourites we got nervous and sloppy.

I wouldn't say it's good, but yea, we just need to keep ticking over with the wins and avoid any more points dropped against teams we should be beating.

Speak Now

I see Fred got the Sunday afternoon shift, tough break.

kingshankly

Speak Now wrote: »

Checked betfair and 1/3 is the lowest we've traded, 1/5 is the lowest City were.

its not rocket science folks go on to Oddschecker click premiere league outright betting click on Liverpool then click total history you will see every price Liverpool were since August with every firm

noodler

jayo26 wrote: »

I'd say it's city fans having bit of fun watching the team winning by a large margin and going back top of the table and getting another top six game out of the way.

Wouldn't say they have much to worry about now defending champions in a final of a cup competition and still in fa cup and still in Europe and second favourite to win the league!!!!

Wow.

You got all that from what he said?

Wow.

Ardent

Some statement from City there. Obviously we can afford to draw one game, but effectively we have to win every game remaining. That's some pressure with united, spurs, etc yet to play...

BorneTobyWilde

Great win by City

marno21

Ardent wrote: »

Some statement from City there. Obviously we can afford to draw one game, but effectively we have to win every game remaining. That's some pressure with united, spurs, etc yet to play...

Chelsea were beaten 4-0 by Bournemouth last week and City lost to Newcastle 2 weeks ago.

I still don't think City will win all their games especially given they stand a good chance of going far in the CL and have already lost 4 games this season

.G.

The timing of the fixtures as well as the fixtures themselves will play a role. We play United when they need the points for top 4 and they hate us anyway so will be at full tilt. By the time City play them they may have top 4 sown up and can afford to be on the beach to help their rivals mates. Also by the time we play Chelsea Sarri will probably be gone and that toxic Chelsea dressing room will have decided to not to be sh!t anymore.

All that said, the league situation is a simple one, win our games and there's nothing the red or blue mates in Manchester can do about it. If only it was that easy though!:D

jayo26

Ardent wrote: »

Some statement from City there. Obviously we can afford to draw one game, but effectively we have to win every game remaining. That's some pressure with united, spurs, etc yet to play...

What's the problem? why trying play down pools chances. They have 2nd most expensive keeper in the league, most expensive centerback in world, some of most expensive midfielders in league, seemingly best 3 attackers in league if not the world and klopp in charge and no small cup competitions to distract the players who have 10 or so days off until they play again.

Bloody hell with the squad that's built they shouldn't be any excuses of who you have to play if the team and manager are good enough they will do it they shouldn't be any fear!!

Muahahaha

Charlie19 wrote: »

3 hat tricks for Aguero this season.

And he has scored two of those hat tricks in the last three games. Salah was looking good for top scorer this year but now Aguero is level with him on 17 having been stuck on 11 for a fair bit.

NukaCola

The "favourites" tag is changing so quick I'm losing track....

ERG89

How the f**k can anyone be clear favourites right now when top spot has changed 3 times in the last 4 days???
Still the CL knockout stages to come, an international break and unforseen results/injuries.
Or are people only saying one team is favourites so if the winner doesn't go their way they can pretend they had a bet on it and won money anyway :rolleyes:

Osmosis Jones

I'm used to lads popping in after a United win, but now after City wins too?