Is investing in Dublin port the best preparation for Brexit?

realitykeeper

Two beggars are sitting on a footpath. One says to the other, "what would you do if you won the lotto?" The other beggar says "the first thing I would do is buy a cushion for this footpath!"

How is this joke relevant to Dublin port? I`ll come back to it.

Trucking goods across the UK (from Ireland) en route to the European mainland always seemed a bit silly from my perspective. Surely if you want to ship to the mainland, you should ship to the mainland and not the UK. But, now that Brexit is happening, it makes even less sense to ship to the UK to get to the EU given the massive traffic tail backs they are expecting at Dover.

Add in the extra red tape involved with trading with the UK without going on to the EU mainland and it only seems sensible to redirect trade we used to do with the UK to the rest of the EU via direct Ireland-EU trade and bypass the UK altogether except in cases where there is no EU alternative to a particular product we need to import.

Investing in Dublin (and Rosslare) ports is fine but not if the purpose is to facilitate trade with a UK that is clearly turning inward. It is like we cannot think in terms of a world that does not include the UK. This neediness reminds me of the beggar and his cushion. The UK is finished, Time to move on.

First Up

Some of the investment is to accomodate the additional administration that may apply to shipments to/from the UK. The UK will still be an important trading partner, not just a transit route.

There will also be expanded services to continental ports.

LeinsterDub

This is an investment in capacity. The ferries can go where they like

Wanderer78

realitykeeper wrote:

Investing in Dublin (and Rosslare) ports is fine but not if the purpose is to facilitate trade with a UK that is clearly turning inward. It is like we cannot think in terms of a world that does not include the UK. This neediness reminds me of the beggar and his cushion. The UK is finished, Time to move on.

The UK isn't finished, it ll still be there post Brexit, it's probably best we don't isolate them further, for both our benefits

neris

goods are shipped through the UK by truck to the continent (the UK Landbridge) as its the quickest route to mainland Europe and the most efficient for drivers hours & tacho regulations.

First Up

neris wrote:

goods are shipped through the UK by truck to the continent (the UK Landbridge) as its the quickest route to mainland Europe and the most efficient for drivers hours & tacho regulations.

Many are under present conditions, but if there is congestion and chaos entering and leaving UK ports, the attractiveness of that route will be greatly reduced.

cgcsb

It's much faster to reach France via the UK than via the Celtic Sea. A container ship would take the guts of 2 days. We're over 1000km from France at the nearest point.

First Up

cgcsb wrote:

It's much faster to reach France via the UK than via the Celtic Sea. A container ship would take the guts of 2 days. We're over 1000km from France at the nearest point.

About 18 hours on ro-ro from Rosslare, 14 from Cork, less than 20 from Dublin on new WBY.

Marcusm

First Up wrote: »

About 18 hours on ro-ro from Rosslare, 14 from Cork, less than 20 from Dublin on new WBY.

None of the Rosslare or Cork ferries go to a useful point in France for roro and too much downtime on board. Overtime we will see goods go to Antwerp, Rotterdam and Zeebrugge via container rather than roro where they are not perishable. The land bridge will still have to be used for time sensitive goods.

neris

First Up wrote: »

About 18 hours on ro-ro from Rosslare, 14 from Cork, less than 20 from Dublin on new WBY.

through the uk you can be in France in about 12-14 hours. Alot of stuff going is scheduled for delivery times & slots so timing is critical to alot of what goes out

First Up

neris wrote:

through the uk you can be in France in about 12-14 hours. Alot of stuff going is scheduled for delivery times & slots so timing is critical to alot of what goes out

Assuming you can by-pass the 20 mile queues predicted for the M2.

First Up

Marcusm wrote:

None of the Rosslare or Cork ferries go to a useful point in France for roro and too much downtime on board. Overtime we will see goods go to Antwerp, Rotterdam and Zeebrugge via container rather than roro where they are not perishable. The land bridge will still have to be used for time sensitive goods.

The point being that the landbridge will be seriously disrupted if the UK fails to secure open access to the EU.

And Cherbourg is very well located for access to the mororways of Europe.

cgcsb

First Up wrote: »

About 18 hours on ro-ro from Rosslare, 14 from Cork, less than 20 from Dublin on new WBY.

Heavier container ships are much slower though. About 37 km/hr, get you to France in about 28 hrs.

Edit:

We probably will see a heavy shift from using the UK land bridge to direct sea freight for political reasons. Also freight in Europe in general is changing. China seems to be dedicated to getting heavy freight trains from Beijing to Berlin in 2 days. Difficult but would be great to see in the future.

First Up

cgcsb wrote:

We probably will see a heavy shift from using the UK land bridge to direct sea freight for political reasons.

Political reasons? Purely commercial and pragmatic.

First Up

cgcsb wrote:

Heavier container ships are much slower though. About 37 km/hr, get you to France in about 28 hrs.

The stuff using the landbridge is in trucks.

cgcsb

First Up wrote: »

Political reasons? Purely commercial and pragmatic.

But cause by Brexit, which is political, is what I meant.

First Up

cgcsb wrote:

But cause by Brexit, which is political, is what I meant.

Well it nicely illustrates how political ideology impacts on the real world.

realitykeeper

cgcsb wrote: »

It's much faster to reach France via the UK than via the Celtic Sea.

That is under present trading arrangements. Also, as environmental considderations become more pressing, hauliers may find it in their interests to take the slower but more fuel efficient route to the continent. Shipping is of course the most fuel efficient method of moving cargo.

Marcusm

First Up wrote: »

The point being that the landbridge will be seriously disrupted if the UK fails to secure open access to the EU.

And Cherbourg is very well located for access to the mororways of Europe.

Cherbourg is not particularly well suited for access to the pharmaceutical and medical devices distribution centres which are based in Belgium (reflecting the site of Eurooe’s Major ports). The road trip is probably longer than traversing the U.K. while uncertainty exists the land bridge will have to be mitigated but in many cases it will be worth taking the risk versus a more costly route through Cherbourg etc.

realitykeeper

Marcusm wrote: »

Cherbourg is not particularly well suited for access to the pharmaceutical and medical devices distribution centres which are based in Belgium (reflecting the site of Eurooe’s Major ports). The road trip is probably longer than traversing the U.K. while uncertainty exists the land bridge will have to be mitigated but in many cases it will be worth taking the risk versus a more costly route through Cherbourg etc.

Ships can go to any port.

First Up

Marcusm wrote:

Cherbourg is not particularly well suited for access to the pharmaceutical and medical devices distribution centres which are based in Belgium (reflecting the site of Eurooe’s Major ports). The road trip is probably longer than traversing the U.K. while uncertainty exists the land bridge will have to be mitigated but in many cases it will be worth taking the risk versus a more costly route through Cherbourg etc.

Companies can calculate that for themselves when the UK's situation is clearer. The certainty of travel duration using Cherbourg may outweigh a theoretically faster but less predictable route through the UK.

Risk is not popular in making business decisions.

realitykeeper

Today I read (either in the Irish Times or a business section from a few days ago) someone`s opinion that the UK bridge (linking Ireland to the EU) must continue. Business people who think like this probably do most of their trade with the UK and probably lack confidence in their ability to trade with other EU countries. Such businesses would probably fail anyway come the next recession because they will not adapt. I suspect such business people may be better suited to working as employees in more competitive businesses that trade more with the EU and which bypass the UK.

Some in the EU are already talking about Ireland`s EU border obligations if there is a hard brexit. In that scenario, trade with the rest of the UK will have to be subject to the same border obligations. That would be a pity, especially in the case of the north.

neris

The land bridge is nothing to do with trading with the UK. It's a means of those trading in the eu getting their product to the eu quicker.

realitykeeper wrote: »

Today I read (either in the Irish Times or a business section from a few days ago) someone`s opinion that the UK bridge (linking Ireland to the EU) must continue. Business people who think like this probably do most of their trade with the UK and probably lack confidence in their ability to trade with other EU countries. Such businesses would probably fail anyway come the next recession because they will not adapt. I suspect such business people may be better suited to working as employees in more competitive businesses that trade more with the EU and which bypass the UK.

Some in the EU are already talking about Ireland`s EU border obligations if there is a hard brexit. In that scenario, trade with the rest of the UK will have to be subject to the same border obligations. That would be a pity, especially in the case of the north.