Longshot Value at Cheltenham

longshotvalue · 14-03-2019 6:20am

TallyRand wrote: »

Are you up or down at the half way stage?

Down about 14-15 points .

Big day today loads of points at stake

sasta le · 14-03-2019 6:45am

aidankkk wrote: »

Down about 14-15 points .

Big day today loads of points at stake

Any good e/w for today

coillsaille · 14-03-2019 9:33am

Is Romain de Senaim a non runner?

Angliru · 14-03-2019 9:40am

coillsaille wrote: »

Is Romain de Senaim a non runner?

Yeah Nicholls said ground won't suit.

RivetingRoger · 14-03-2019 9:58am

Any opinion on Cuneo in the pertemps Aidan? Big price

Jayo11780 · 14-03-2019 10:01am

Lads Pravalaguna at 16/1 is super value in the first given what I’ve seen of her last two runs..
She gets a mares allowance too which definitely ties her in with market principles.

asteroids over berlin · 14-03-2019 10:08am

Jayo11780 wrote: »

Lads Pravalaguna at 16/1 is super value in the first given what I’ve seen of her last two runs..
She gets a mares allowance too which definitely ties her in with market principles.

no chance

RivetingRoger · 14-03-2019 10:15am

asteroids over berlin wrote: »

no chance

Have you no radio host to be bothering with your BS

JustJoe7240 · 14-03-2019 10:18am

Can ye lads jog on over to the cheltenham thread? Getting notifications for this thread, And i have zero interest in reading your fancies.

longshotvalue · 14-03-2019 10:42am

1:30 JLT
Mengli Khan looks the value here. He has soft ground festival form in last years Supreme, and only his last run is a big negative on basically firm ground. He really should improve for soft and in a tight race 16/1 looks decent
1 Point win 16/1

longshotvalue · 14-03-2019 10:50am

2:10
Wait for me owes me a decent run, and I think he was eye-catching last time out. He has been kept since then and is certainly of a workable mark. We’ll take a punt at 40/1
1 Point EW 40/1 6 places paddy/betfair

longshotvalue · 14-03-2019 11:02am

3:30
Sam Spinner just needs a better ride to get involved in the finish here. I think he still has plenty of class and stays well at the end of his races.40/1 with 4 places is certainly value.
1 Point EW 40/1 4 places vc/corla/betway/tote

longshotvalue · 14-03-2019 11:03am

aidankkk wrote: »

Ryanair Chase

The top of the market for this race is mad at the moment with most of them not showing up here for this race. Monalee and Politologue look the most likely favs on the day. I’ve had Coney Island in mind for this since his very good run at Leopardstown over Christmas and I just can’t get over his price at the moment. He is a very lightly raced horse with bags of potential and in my view this is his trip. He really ran well in the Savills chase when a poor jump at the last and perhaps a lack of staying power cost him what looked a likely place. He has had a lovely prep with only 2 runs this year both with promise and considering his novice form I think he is the forgotten horse in this market. He hasn’t been entered in the Gold Cup, so hopefully this is his target. The trainer’s horses always run well at the festival and I’m sure he will get there in top shape. If he does he will go of about 10/1 or lower. 33/1 NRNB is great price with no risk.
2 Points EW 33/1 NRNB 365 ¼ place 1/5th place SKY

Running today. Still the same price. I was able to cash out The 365 bet to full value and bet with VC at the same price with 4 places.

Anyone who hasn't backed it id be taking the 4 places

longshotvalue · 14-03-2019 11:11am

5:30
ArkWrisht is one I’ve been following all year. He hasn’t gone well so far but this test today will be right up his street. Have a look at the Irish Grand National last year in Heavy Ground, he was right beside Bellshill jumping the last and got taken out. Waiting for the morning price hasn’t worked out as we’ve missed the 40/1
2 Points EW 5 place 33/1 GEN

longshotvalue · 14-03-2019 11:28am

4:10
Kings Odyssey looks a short price to get involved in the finished here. He was 3rd last year in 3 of these races on soft over course and distance. He is of a lower mark here and the rain is a huge help
2 Points EW 5places 25/1 vc/fred/tote

longshotvalue · 14-03-2019 12:01pm

4:50
I’m always going for a Mullins Outsider here and his comments re Allez Dance are just too interesting for a 66/1 shot. The man can train mares.
1 Point EW 66/1 4 place vc

Father Hernandez · 14-03-2019 2:37pm

aidankkk wrote: »

1:30 JLT
Mengli Khan looks the value here. He has soft ground festival form in last years Supreme, and only his last run is a big negative on basically firm ground. He really should improve for soft and in a tight race 16/1 looks decent
1 Point win 16/1

Great shout Aidan

bladespin · 14-03-2019 2:40pm

Awesome!

Sultan of Bling · 14-03-2019 2:48pm

Father Hernandez wrote:

Great shout Aidan

Not for Aidan unfortunately as he had him to win.

maximoose · 14-03-2019 4:39pm

aidankkk wrote: »

3:30
Sam Spinner just needs a better ride to get involved in the finish here. I think he still has plenty of class and stays well at the end of his races.40/1 with 4 places is certainly value.
1 Point EW 40/1 4 places vc/corla/betway/tote

Great shout again!!

ballyargus · 14-03-2019 4:43pm

maximoose wrote: »

Great shout again!!

He was v unlucky. Almost pulled it out of the bag for the win. A great run

Felexicon · 14-03-2019 4:46pm

Heart was in the mouth there. Still great e/w value

Francie Barrett · 14-03-2019 5:43pm

Oops

Slattsy · 14-03-2019 5:47pm

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Eglantine Du Seuil at 160 on the exchange looks too big to me.

Agree. Small each way at the extra places Bet365 offer m

PhuckHugh2 · 14-03-2019 5:56pm

Jesus lads some shout there

cruais · 14-03-2019 5:57pm

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Oops

Nice one francie!

Miley Byrne · 14-03-2019 5:58pm

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Oops

:eek::eek:

Slattsy · 14-03-2019 6:00pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Agree. Small each way at the extra places Bet365 offer m

Giddy up

Nerdlingr · 14-03-2019 6:01pm

Some result there!

Slattsy · 14-03-2019 6:01pm

Mon Francie!

yaboya1 · 14-03-2019 9:13pm

ballyargus wrote: »

He was v unlucky. Almost pulled it out of the bag for the win. A great run

Agreed it was a great run/shout, but he wasn't unlucky.

longshotvalue · 15-03-2019 10:59am

Gold Cup
Might Byte will be suited by the ground and last years run is the best form in this race, if we consider he should be a lot better on decent ground. He has to come back to firm but no better trainer for that.
1 point win 14/1

longshotvalue · 15-03-2019 11:07am

2:50
First Approach appeals here at a huge price. He was staying on at the end in the Dublin Racing Festival and has loads of experience , which is required in this race.
1 Point ew 4 places 40/1

handsfree2 · 15-03-2019 11:39am

aidankkk wrote: »

Gold Cup
Might Byte will be suited by the ground and last years run is the best form in this race, if we consider he should be a lot better on decent ground. He has to come back to firm but no better trainer for that.
1 point win 14/1

What are your thoughts on elegant escape?

I like how he stayed on against frodon on trials day and that frodon form looks pretty good now.

Also what are your thoughts on Al boum photo? The sectionals and form lines from the tramore race look pretty good.

NuttyMcNutty · 15-03-2019 11:54am

Casa Tall in 5:30 could be a good each way bet!

longshotvalue · 15-03-2019 11:55am

2:10
Due Reward is interesting here at a huge price. He should be suited by the step up on trip and rang well in the big handicap at the Dublin racing festival. This looks a weaker race than usual and he could be the ideal unexposed type for it.
1 Point EW 6 places lads 40/1

longshotvalue · 15-03-2019 11:56am

handsfree2 wrote: »

What are your thoughts on elegant escape?

I like how he stayed on against frodon on trials day and that frodon form looks pretty good now.

Also what are your thoughts on Al boum photo? The sectionals and form lines from the tramore race look pretty good.

With the ground he'll surely be too slow, but the way its going this week, the opposite will happen

longshotvalue · 15-03-2019 12:05pm

4:50
Forest Bihan has top weight here but has won a 2mile chase of a higher mark and has run well here before. He strikes me as having potential to improve and this type of race should suit him. 40/1 seems big.
1 Point EW 40/1 5 places gen

handsfree2 · 15-03-2019 4:52pm

handsfree2 wrote: »

What are your thoughts on elegant escape?

I like how he stayed on against frodon on trials day and that frodon form looks pretty good now.

Also what are your thoughts on Al boum photo? The sectionals and form lines from the tramore race look pretty good.

Al boum did the biz, you were right on elegant escape, too slow

Bigmac1euro · 15-03-2019 6:02pm

aidankkk wrote: »

4:50
Forest Bihan has top weight here but has won a 2mile chase of a higher mark and has run well here before. He strikes me as having potential to improve and this type of race should suit him. 40/1 seems big.
1 Point EW 40/1 5 places gen

Thank you mate. Just saved my day and got me out of a hole!

AidoEirE · 15-03-2019 6:33pm

aidankkk wrote: »

4:50
Forest Bihan has top weight here but has won a 2mile chase of a higher mark and has run well here before. He strikes me as having potential to improve and this type of race should suit him. 40/1 seems big.
1 Point EW 40/1 5 places gen

Great spot, just my luck of the week the only one of the three 40/1's you posted i didnt lay on Bihan. Had to laugh at myself when i seen the result. Credit to you man, hope a few here won something of it.

charolais0153 · 15-03-2019 6:35pm

AidoEirE wrote: »

Great spot, just my luck of the week the only one of the three 40/1's you posted i didnt lay on Bihan. Had to laugh at myself when i seen the result. Credit to you man, hope a few here won something of it.

Covered a bit. Had a good few high odds plaaced during the week, none crossed the line first though.
Cheers aidankkk though!

Peckham · 16-03-2019 1:10am

Thanks Aidan. You were a go-to source this week. You put your opinions out there for all to see. A bit more luck and it could have been a great week. That's how it goes.

Will keep an eye on your tips.