Super Bowl LIII - Rams v Patriots

Realt Dearg Sec

cosatron wrote: »

how the patriots o-line deal with Donald-suh- brooker will determine the outcome of the game. I think the patriots haven't faced a dline like this with pressure coming from the interior. If suh and Donald get a push up the middle and brady has to move around the pocket, it will throw off allot of there timing routes. In all fariness brady has had an armchair ride the last 2 games.

The Pats could do worse than watch the Bears game against the Rams, where Donald was kept mostly very quiet all day. I remember dreading that because both our guards that day were uncertain: James Daniels, a rookies, and Bryan Wintzman, a backup for Kyle Long who got absolutely roasted the week before.

Reading up on it, because Donald can line up either side, those two guards faced him a lot, but rather than doubling up with the centre most of the time, they actually blocked him one-on-one in nearly half of snaps (33 out of 71), precisely because he thrives on splitting double blocks on the interior (which he did do on one double, splitting Whitehair, the centre, and Daniels). The OL coach instead kept faith with his guys to do their job on their own. It was Donald's quietest game of the year, I think.

j8wk2feszrnpao

bruschi wrote: »

The O line has been excellent, and with Dwayne Allen and Gronk sacrificing his own receiving game to help, they have shown this form through the year and into playoffs.

They have been really good, but I'd also credit Brady for getting the ball out so quick, he's been spot on with so many throws, and it's helped the OL. But further credit to the OL, they have opened holes for the RBs really well.

cosatron

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

The Pats could do worse than watch the Bears game against the Rams, where Donald was kept mostly very quiet all day. I remember dreading that because both our guards that day were uncertain: James Daniels, a rookies, and Bryan Wintzman, a backup for Kyle Long who got absolutely roasted the week before.

Reading up on it, because Donald can line up either side, those two guards faced him a lot, but rather than doubling up with the centre most of the time, they actually blocked him one-on-one in nearly half of snaps (33 out of 71), precisely because he thrives on splitting double blocks on the interior (which he did do on one double, splitting Whitehair, the centre, and Daniels). The OL coach instead kept faith with his guys to do their job on their own. It was Donald's quietest game of the year, I think.

The play that sticks out for me was Brees second int, when Fowler got a 1 on 1 with a guard or centre and got a hand on Brees throwing arm and Brees had no follow through. I think these types of plays will hurt Brady as he throws allot over the middle. Another impressive feature of the Pat's has being gronks blocking. So I think the rams would be stupid to bring pressure from the edge moreso than up the middle.

ELM327

Can't see anyone but NE winning this and winning it well.
NE have been up against top DLines during the postseason and schemed them out of the game to the point I don't think Brady was sacked in the postseason at all.

The rams are lucky to get this far, they have the worst QB of the 4 in the championship games.

As a football fan I'd have liked to see a Brady Brees shootout, but as a pats fan I'm delighted we're against the rams. I'm hoping for 2 things, a NE win and for neither TB12 or Belichick to retire afterwards.

LuckyLloyd

Brady has successfully dealt with all sorts of things during his career, but all the same the Rams will want Donald and Suh getting pressure in the middle of the pocket and testing that he can still adjust on the fly and throw on the move at 41. The Chargers and Chiefs completely failed to make it uncomfortable for him. The Pats enjoyed a TOP in both games of 82:19 / 42:33. That means they are working their primary game plan, keeping their defense fresh on the sideline. It should be impossible to compete in such circumstances, and the the Chiefs deserve a lot of credit for making it as hard as they did when only having the ball for 20 minutes.

The Rams need to get a push on the interior of that line and disrupt Brady and the running game. They need to stop the Patriots forming long drives and force their D out onto the field more. If they fail to do that, then the rest is window dressing imo. The Chiefs had allowed a situation to form where they needed bombs from Mahomes and specific schematic adjustments in the second half to make it a horse race. If the Rams put themselves in the same situation they've already lost.

In that way, we'll know very early on which way the game is trending. If they achieve that push and force a couple of 3 and outs early then we have a fascinating game. Brady and Bill have shown across the last two superbowls that they can go to plans B, C and beyond to keep making things happen. But if plan A is working, they'll be winning.

Can't wait!

PhuckHugh2

Hopefully Donald/Suh will test Brady's Old Man knees and test them early.

PhuckHugh

PhuckHugh2 wrote: »

Hopefully Donald/Suh will test Brady's Old Man knees and test them early.

:eek:

WTF?

Black Swan

During regular season the Rams (13-3; 81.3%) out performed the Pats (11-5; 68.8%), but these are descriptive statistics and not inferential. There are other factors to consider that occurred during regular season and playoffs between the two teams that are hard to measure. Like hghly veteran QB vs. relatively new QB; season schedule; etc., etc. There is also luck (chance) that limits our ability to guess what may happen; e.g., several missed calls; the OT deflection of Saints offensive pass that landed on a Ram's defender stomach while he received it on his back, etc., etc. How do you factor and measure luck?

It's fun guess and predict what will happen during the Super Bowl, but methinks that no one will know until the clock runs out (or the OT score if this extraordinary event occurs again after 2 playoff OT games).

And just for fun I am guessing Rams by 3.

markc91

Gonna be in NYC next sunday with the OH for the Superbowl, anyone been there before while its on and can recommend a good bar to watch it in?

kmart6

markc91 wrote: »

Gonna be in NYC next sunday with the OH for the Superbowl, anyone been there before while its on and can recommend a good bar to watch it in?

You'll more than likely need to look at getting a ticket this week to a bar that is having a party. You could spend a lot of time going from bar to bar trying to get it which will be a pain and doubt your OH would appreciate.

kmart6

Anybody know what commentary BBC will be going with? Have a feeling from previous years that they don't use the main broadcast crew but can't see anything online.

MMAbhoy

Ive had the rams backed since week 5 think Ill put a lump on the Patriots - as much as I despise them

Clareman

markc91 wrote: »

Gonna be in NYC next sunday with the OH for the Superbowl, anyone been there before while its on and can recommend a good bar to watch it in?

I was in NYC years ago for a Superbowl and watched it at http://www.playwrightirishpubnyc.com/ had a great night

Lionbacker

kmart6 wrote: »

Anybody know what commentary BBC will be going with? Have a feeling from previous years that they don't use the main broadcast crew but can't see anything online.

I'm fairly sure last year they had Michaels & Collinsworth, but the year before that your right in that they had some other commentary team that wasn't Buck/Aikman.

I'd be slightly surprised if they didn't have Nantz/Romo next Sunday, but it might be out of their control. Have to wait & see I guess.

Johnny_Fontane

Eagles were 5 point underdogs last year.

For the year thats in it, I'm going to go for the underdog this year again. Somebody (ANYBODY PLEEEAASEEE) will get to TB12.

A reverse of the conference finals, Brady to go through the air, CJ/Gurley ground and pound.

Rams by 5.

Ohmeha

Lionbacker wrote: »

I'm fairly sure last year they had Michaels & Collinsworth, but the year before that your right in that they had some other commentary team that wasn't Buck/Aikman.

I'd be slightly surprised if they didn't have Nantz/Romo next Sunday, but it might be out of their control. Have to wait & see I guess.

Yeah last year they had the Michaels/Collinsworth NBC commentary. Two previous years 2016 & 2017 they used an international commentary feed, I'm sure they would have used the CBS and Fox commentaries those years if they were allowed must have been some issue but after the return of the network commentary last year hopefully they will have the CBS feed on the BBC

alchemist33

Anybody know if you watch it on Gamepass do you see the half time ads the Americans see?

NapoleonInRags

alchemist33 wrote: »

Anybody know if you watch it on Gamepass do you see the half time ads the Americans see?

Yes you do!

Paully D

https://twitter.com/profootballtalk/status/1089893749885489154?s=21

Game over.

Realt Dearg Sec

Paully D wrote: »

https://twitter.com/profootballtalk/status/1089893749885489154?s=21

Game over.

Does nobody ever tell these lads the value of a closed mouth?

bruschi

Paully D wrote: »

https://twitter.com/profootballtalk/status/1089893749885489154?s=21

Game over.

Sensationalist crap really. He said very little of substance, but been blown out of proportion.

Yes. Yes. Age has definitely taken a toll. For him to still be doing it, that’s a great compliment for him. But I think that he’s definitely not the same quarterback he was,” Robey-Coleman said. “Movement. Speed. Velocity. Arm strength. He still can sling it, but he’s not slinging it as much. Whatever he was doing—because of his age and all that—he’s not doing as much of that anymore. He’s still doing the same things; he’s just not doing as much of it. And sometimes, it’s not the sharpest. But it still gets done

He obviously had a leading question that he expanded on and nothing of what he says isnt true, but the media have ran with it and its another "bet against us" stick for the Patriots to run with. If nothing else, he is just dumb to respond to anything. I know its bred into the Patriots to give dumb monotone answers, but they usually end up with no bulletin board material for the opposition then. In one regard I pity him, as he was honest and said nothing too trashy, on the other hand, it's superbowl week and you're playing Brady, dont give him a reason to do this to you as Anthony Smith and his guarantee found out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y58XTEGkmDk

Brady ran 70 yards to get in his face and remind him of what he said.

PhuckHugh2

Line has moved from Rams -1.5 to Rams +2 in the space of a week and a bit.

Think that's a bit of an over reaction. Id still have the Rams a slight favorite. Thought the -1.5 was fair. If by any chance they hit +3 it will be an all in and hope for the best type job.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

I think the Rams (and Sean McVay) have gone from a situation where they were probably a bit over-rated to being under-rated. Them sneaking by NOLA has done them the world of good as it feels like all the hype is on NE now. Apparently in LA all the sporting talk is centred around the potential transfer of Anthony Davis to the Lakers, and you'd barely know there was a football game coming up.

I don't see this game as anything other than 50/50. LA have the superior squad, with NE having the better QB and HC. I'm finding it very hard to pick a winner but will go with LA due to them having more players who can break open a game.
If it wasn't for last year's SB, I'd fancy this to be a high-scoring game, but I can't see BB letting that happen for a second year running. A high-scoring game would suit LA more I feel.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

I can't see BB letting that happen for a second year running

Maybe he'll surprise us again and bench a secondary starter for the entire game :P

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

munstermagic11 wrote: »

Maybe he'll surprise us again and bench a secondary starter for the entire game :P

Oh jesus don't even joke about that. I'm still sore over last year! Mostly about the strip-sack on the would-be-final-drive, but also that. We were carved up:eek:

Morrison J

Think the Pats are rightful favourites given the difference in trust levels you'd have in Brady compared to Goff going into a game like this. I'd expect the line to hit +3 to be honest.

JP Liz V1

Aaron Donald and Dante Fowler to stop Tom Brady Come on Rams!

Jolly Red Giant

https://twitter.com/JamesPalmerTV/status/1090044602013368320

Tristram

Wade Phillips comes across as having a great sense of humour.

el Fenomeno

Tristram wrote: »

Wade Phillips comes across as having a great sense of humour.

He's a very likable guy.

Which, if I remember correctly, was one of the reasons floated as to why he wasn't a successful head coach at Dallas. I remember talk of him being "one of the guys", i.e. too friendly with the players and not ruthless enough.

PhuckHugh2

Morrison J wrote: »

I'd expect the line to hit +3 to be honest.

Id be very shocked if the line hit 3. Books would be absolutely hammered by professional money if they went 3 imo.

Edit: Actually reading that one of the Vegas books had the line at 3 for a total of 17 minutes last week before racking up 6 figures in bets on the Rams.
https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/south-point-moves-super-bowl-line-to-rams-plus-3-for-17-minutes-1579406/

trixiebust

Hoping the Rams win,if nothing but for the amazing football they played earlier in the season.

simongurnick

Looking at a few bets and one that stood out is Brady to throw a TD in the 4th quarter at just under evens. Seems like an absolute banker. Am I wrong?

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

simongurnick wrote: »

Looking at a few bets and one that stood out is Brady to throw a TD in the 4th quarter at just under evens. Seems like an absolute banker. Am I wrong?

He'll undoubtedly lead a TD drive or two, but a lot of the time the TDs go to the RBs. He only had 1 passing TD vs LAC despite putting up 41 points, and 1 passing TD vs KC despite putting up 37 points. On the contrary there were 8 rushing TDs in those game, 5 for Michel and 3 for Burkhead.

simongurnick

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

He'll undoubtedly lead a TD drive or two, but a lot of the time the TDs go to the RBs. He only had 1 passing TD vs LAC despite putting up 41 points, and 1 passing TD vs KC despite putting up 37 points. On the contrary there were 8 rushing TDs in those game, 5 for Michel and 3 for Burkhead.

interesting. good insight mate. might be better to lean towards michel. They've been going to him a lot.

Kev8360

Going for a Rams win. Was very impressed how well they shut down the Saints rushing attack and made some big stops in the red zone early on to keep them in the NFC championship game.

If they can do the same with the Patriots - a big IF - they have the pass rush to get to Brady like the Eagles did last year. Looking forward to it - should be a cracking game.

PhuckHugh

PhuckHugh2 wrote: »

Id be very shocked if the line hit 3. Books would be absolutely hammered by professional money if they went 3 imo.

Edit: Actually reading that one of the Vegas books had the line at 3 for a total of 17 minutes last week before racking up 6 figures in bets on the Rams.
https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/south-point-moves-super-bowl-line-to-rams-plus-3-for-17-minutes-1579406/

phuckhugh 2.

eagle eye

cosatron wrote:

how the patriots o-line deal with Donald-suh- brooker will determine the outcome of the game. I think the patriots haven't faced a dline like this with pressure coming from the interior. If suh and Donald get a push up the middle and brady has to move around the pocket, it will throw off allot of there timing routes. In all fariness brady has had an armchair ride the last 2 games.

If they are getting through you'll see a lot of the hot route aka James White.

ELM327

I expect white to get 15+ receptions if the rams manage to get pressure up the middle and get in brady's face.

Knex*

I do not see the Rams winning this tbh. They don't have the run D capable, in my mind, to stop what the Pats will do to them. I would expect Patriots to be around the 5 yards per carry mark.

Rams obviously have a stellar offense and can put teams away, but you just know BB has a scheme for them and has been following their play all year.

It'll be a score game, I think, but ultimately I see Patriots winning if they avoid major turning points like a pick six.

Excited for the game nevertheless.

el Fenomeno

Even though it's a great matchup and should be a fascinating game, this has been one of the most subdued buildups to a Super Bowl I can imagine.

eagle eye

el Fenomeno wrote:

Even though it's a great matchup and should be a fascinating game, this has been one of the most subdued buildups to a Super Bowl I can imagine.

Well one of the teams shouldn't be there.
The court case brought by the Saints was rejected yesterday. It's only now, unless there is an appeal to a higher court, that we are certain of what two teams will play the Superbowl.

rebelyell99

el Fenomeno wrote: »

Even though it's a great matchup and should be a fascinating game, this has been one of the most subdued buildups to a Super Bowl I can imagine.

Its a matchup that doesnt entice many people, the patriots arnt liked at all outside there own fans and people are tired of seeing them in this game .When you look at the rams they havnt won over the L.A public yet and many nfl fans feel they dont even deserve to be in the super bowl , Chiefs Saints would be far more exciting.

eagle eye

I don't understand how anybody outside of Rams fans would want to see them win. They shouldn't be there and it makes the whole thing a mockery and even moreso if they win the Superbowl.
I'm certain that if the Ravens were there instead of the Patriots, and I really, really don't like the Ravens, that I'd be shouting for them against the Rams in this game.
I've nothing against the Rams because it's not their fault but it's just so wrong and I'd want it righted as much as possible. Them losing would give some sense of justice even if it doesn't help the Saints.

PhuckHugh2

Ah come off it. There is injustices in sport every day of the week. 1 blown call does not constitute an injustice. What about the phantom sack on Tom Brady to keep that drive alive? Or the injustice of only having overtime decided by a coin flip.
Its sport. **** happens and it cost me the chance at winning a nice sunny holiday to the Caribbean as had Saints backed way back when at 25/1 and 20/1. It is what it is Saints had plenty of chances to win that game. They should have been out of sight.
The court case crap is laughable. Take your beating.


Edit: I meant phantom roughing the passer rather than phantom sack obviously.

ELM327

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't understand how anybody outside of Rams fans would want to see them win. They shouldn't be there and it makes the whole thing a mockery and even moreso if they win the Superbowl.
I'm certain that if the Ravens were there instead of the Patriots, and I really, really don't like the Ravens, that I'd be shouting for them against the Rams in this game.
I've nothing against the Rams because it's not their fault but it's just so wrong and I'd want it righted as much as possible. Them losing would give some sense of justice even if it doesn't help the Saints.

As a pats fan there's no such thing as "shouldnt be there"
They won the game, one blown call doesn't change things.

raze_them_all_

Why does nobody mention the no call on the face mask on Geoff the play before hand. If it was called they had a fresh set of bounds and the controversial play never happens. But nah can only give out about the last call

ELM327

raze_them_all_ wrote: »

Why does nobody mention the no call on the face mask on Geoff the play before hand. If it was called they had a fresh set of bounds and the controversial play never happens. But nah can only give out about the last call

Or the fake roughing the passer on Brady?
No one is saying NE shouldnt be there (and rightly so, as they should be there, by virtue of the fact that they are there, same as the Rams)

eagle eye

The court case was not laughable because there is a law in the NFL that allows for the game to be replayed from where the two infractions occurred.
Also this country as too obvious to be missed. If you didn't see PI there is no way all the officials could have missed the personal foul.

eagle eye

ELM327 wrote:

As a pats fan there's no such thing as "shouldnt be there" They won the game, one blown call doesn't change things.

It does change things because the game was over only for that no call.