Snow Ice Warning for Ireland 29 Jan to 03 Feb 2019 *See Mod Note in OP *

Muckka

I was in Doolin this morning, there was definitely a strange sound coming off the sea.
A real northern breeze.
The wave's were breaking nicely.
A different direction to usual, small bit onshore.
The sound off the sea was errie, and coming from a northern direction, it creates a different tone to the ear.

KingdomRushed

Work has brought me to Sligo tonight and I can confirm it is currently raining here

Kermit.de.frog

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Would that be a wintry mix surely the winds will decrease the chances of snow in Dublin going by that there is a decent bit of precipitation for Dublin

Winds will be off shore westerly so not a detrimental factor.

Ultimate Seduction

Muckka wrote: »

I was in Doolin this morning, there was definitely a strange sound coming off the sea.
A real northern breeze.
The wave's were breaking nicely.
A different direction to usual, small bit onshore.
The sound off the sea was errie, and coming from a northern direction, it creates a different tone to the ear.

Was almost sure that was a Graces7 post till I seen the Username

JanuarySnowstor

Any evening update kermit on what you think please??

200motels

The BBC very bullish about snow.

Larbre34

antodeco wrote: »

Google is telling me 60% chance of snow tomorrow in Dublin, from about 6am and rain on Thursday.

Dont worry about that, its pure algorithm forecasting with no human experience. Stick to your national weather service.

Kermit.de.frog

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Any evening update kermit on what you think please??

I'm tired.

On Thursday the difference relates to the northerly extent of the frontal zones between the models.

Looks good for the south and southeast atm.

Dublin might be sacrificed for the greater good :cool:

Snow starts in the morning.

Sweet dreams.

pauldry

Tomorrow around 10am is probably the main time Sligo will get hail/snow covering

After midday tomorrow cant see much more here. Wednesday will be dry. Thursday South...then rain and hail.

gozunda

200motels wrote: »

The BBC very bullish about snow.

That tonights / tmrw forecast?

mickger844posts

200motels wrote: »

The BBC very bullish about snow.

In fairness to the Beeb they have been consistent all day with their output. Saw the forecast after the 1pm news and it was pretty much all snow for Thursday.
No matter what happens over the next few days its been classic model and forecast watching.

Birdnuts

I'm staying in a BnB near Ballintober Abby(Mayo) atm and its currently bucketing Heavy Wet snow/Sleet. The breakfast room has a lovely view of the SW Mayo Mtns so should be a lovely site 2morrow;)

Snow Garden

Croagh Patrick forecasted to get 24cm of snow all day Thursday.

https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Croagh-Patrick/forecasts/764

Nice.

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

An interesting commute potentially for some later in the morning on the GFS-P

Here's the sounding for right in the middle of that heaviest blob of precip over Meath. Snowline around 250-300 metres amsl according to this.

Muckka

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Was almost sure that was a Graces7 post till I seen the Username

Lol seriously we're not sock puppets lol

Probably a similar way of looking at what's around us....

Graces7 has a more romantic tone to her post's....

Kermit.de.frog

That's not a sounding from the parallel run.

Nite all.

Gonzo

GFS Op has some snow for the morning too, looks like rain to begin with and turning to snow on the back edge.



Icon is showing rain for the morning.
Icon is also showing Thursday mostly dry for much of the country with rain/sleet/snow grazing the south of the country.

Hopefully it's wrong and most of the country see's some action this Thursday.

JCX BXC

11pm TAF's

Shannon Airport
*TEMPO 2905/2908 4000 -SHRAGS BKN012
*TEMPO 2908/2924 4000 -SHRASNGS BKN010 SCT018CB
*PROB30 TEMPO 2909/2924 2500 SHRASNGS BKN007

*Temporary light showers of rain and hail mixed between 5am and 8am
*Temporary light showers of sleet and hail mixed between 8am and midnight
*PROB30 Temporary moderate showers of sleet and hail mixed between 9am and midnight

Cork Airport
*TEMPO 2909/2924 4000 -SHRASNGS BKN007 SCT018CB
*PROB40 TEMPO 2910/2924 2500 -SHSN BKN004

*Temporary light showers of sleet and hail mixed between 9am and midnight
*PROB40 Temporary light showers of snow between 10am and midnight.

Knock Airport
*PROB30 TEMPO 2904/2906 2500 -SHSN BKN007 *TEMPO 2906/2924 3000 -SHSNGS BKN007 BKN014CB *PROB40 TEMPO 2906/2915 1500 SHSN BKN003 *PROB40 TEMPO 2921/2924 1500 SHSN BKN003

*PROB30 Temporary light showers of snow between 4am and 6am
*Temporary light showers of snow and hail mixed between 6am and midnight
*PROB40 Temporary moderate showers of snow between 6am and 3pm
*PROB40 Temporary moderate showers of snow between 9am and midnight.

guil

Currently 3c according to the car and raining. Plenty of water lying on the roads. Curragh, Co. Kildare

JanuarySnowstor

Bit of a swing away from Thursday snow on the gfs this morning. Milder uppers and shorter period of ppn. Rain for the South means better snow chances further north

JanuarySnowstor

Though parallel much better with much more snow nationwide

nacho libre

I would like the GFS to be right, but based on previous experience they usually have these things too far north, when the tendency is for them to go south.

I could be wrong,though:)

Graces7

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I'm very surprised how laid back Met Eireann are about tomorrow and Wednesday. Maybe because the East is least at risk...
Widespread snow showers tomorrow for the South and West with even a risk of a polar low and trough early Wed morning.
As for Thursday I think for Cork the wind being onshore or not will be important. Likely be a mix of rain and snow before the low pivots and swings the wind offshore...then snow!!

Forgive my old memory but was it not you who used to get a snow warning headache? I have had a bizarre rare form of migraine this week....

Agree with you re them being laid back; been a rare old night out here. Battered we are... West Mayo offshore iceberg

Graces7

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Snow showers should be in to the northwest by the morning.

I don't expect much now in Leinster and Munster first thing in the morning except maybe some sleet or wet snow as that cold front clears in to the Irish sea. It's then a question of how active and widespread the snow showers will be for the afternoon and tomorrow night.

The west and north should do well tomorrow.

Waiting for daylight to see what came down in the long noisy night. Nothing outside the door but maybe on the mountains.. west mayo; the frozen west

Graces7

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Could be a surprise tomorrow morning for a few - seems to be a trend to increase intensity of that cold front and more chance of some snowfall

agree totally west mayo offshore with some very snowlike sounds on the windows in the darkl an no; changed to rain.

pad199207

Moderate Rain 3c

guil

Small shower of wet snow near kilteel.

Lucreto

2C and raining in Naas.

Ultimate Seduction

Some rain fell in last hour in Limerick, roads flooded. 4c

redsteveireland

Should have some snow reports soon? Sligo, leitrim general area looks like it should be getting snow now? Just icey rain in Galway at the moment.

DOCARCH

Knock report sleet at 0600.

JanuarySnowstor

A lot of the senior guys on net weather seem to think southern Ireland will get hammered going by ecm and ukmo. Remember who warned ye about a possible red!!

munsterlegend

DOCARCH wrote: »

Knock report sleet at 0600.

If it’s not snowing there not much chance further south!!

pad199207

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

A lot of the senior guys on net weather seem to think southern Ireland will get hammered going by ecm and ukmo. Remember who warned ye about a possible red!!

Oh yes how could we forget. :P

IF there is a red called I will bow to ya.

eastmayo

Iam beside knock airport...nothing here only alot off surface water...

Rodar08

There was a lot of talk about the N NW seeing snow... what's the story for the n, nw?

Graces7

There are many things I will do in my zeal for weather boards but sticking my head out of the door just now to see what is falling in NOT one of them! It would get blown clear off. Have no view unless I go to the big gate so patience| Plenty and varied precipitation :eek:

derekon

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

A lot of the senior guys on net weather seem to think southern Ireland will get hammered going by ecm and ukmo. Remember who warned ye about a possible red!!

Is this the same crowd whose mood is up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down over the course of a few GFS frames? This is all followed by a thunderous thump as not only the toys are thrown out of the pram, the pram itself is actually forcefully thrown off the 15th floor? LOL, yes I'd go along with their thoughts for sure.........

RED snow alert it is............

D

DOCARCH

eastmayo wrote: »

....nothing here only alot off surface water...

Melted snow....

Melted snow falling here in Dublin 16.

pad199207

Wet Snow falling in the East Kildare Foothills

mountainy man

Had sleet showers most of the night until wet snow started about an hour ago, ground was too wet for it to stick but now the ground is whitening. I hope that there is not too much as I have to go out later otherwise I'd enjoy it.

Graces7

That is some wild wind a-blowing just now...

Gaoth Laidir

Castor Bay (south shore of Lough Neagh) have sent up a 06Z sounding this morning so it's good to compare it to the model data. Again we have the models overdoing the cold at 850 hPa. Actual value -4.5 °C at 1281 m geopotential height, but the GFSP (00Z Monday run) went for -7 °C, while the latest GFS had the temperature about right but the height too low at around 1270 m.

The ARPEGE and ICON also have the temperature right but they too went too low on the height. So all models are erring on the snowier side than the actual data are saying.

Actual sounding data, 06Z.
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/sondage_display.php?id=3918&map=2&date=1548738905&map2=2

GFS parallel (00Z MONDAY run, only run available on meteociel app)


ARPEGE 00Z Tuesday run

Gaoth Laidir

Knock just crossing the marginal side now as a light snow shower falls. Temp 0.8, dewpoint 0.5, wbt ~0.6-0.7.

At 6 am it was sleeting at temp 1.0, dewpoint 0.7, wbt ~0.8-0.9.

munsterlegend

Lashing cold rain in north cork. met eireann seek to think later today for any now showers so we’ll wait and see!

stephenjmcd

Sleet in Dublin city. Not the nicest to be walking in

JanuarySnowstor

The colder uppers just starting to hit the west coast now. Expect snow reports to come in slowly but surely. Showery trough ahead of this is primarily rain

pad199207

Rain is borderline heavy now in Kildare. Horrible morning

derekon

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

A lot of the senior guys on net weather seem to think southern Ireland will get hammered going by ecm and ukmo. Remember who warned ye about a possible red!!

Actually JS, to be fair to you, I've just read NW UK posts and even the learned Mr Murr is speculating about Red warnings and 30cms of snow for southeast Ireland. Might I have have to eat a wee bit of humble pie in the coming days?

D

SeaFields

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The colder uppers just starting to hit the west coast now. Expect snow reports to come in slowly but surely. Showery trough ahead of this is primarily rain

I last checked valentia before bed last night. Was 8c in the 10pm reports as far as I remember. Checked the 6am report this morning 5c. 7am report dropped another degree to 4c. Not sure if we'll see snow this far south but lovely to have the cold anyway