Snow Ice Warning for Ireland 29 Jan to 03 Feb 2019 *See Mod Note in OP *

Mortelaro

davidsr20 wrote: »

Any updates on Thursday since guys?

None really,it still looks like snow on hills and well inland with mostly rain on the east coast but falling even there As wet snow at times
Ground above 250 metres should see a lot
But it's all subject to change
100kms south or north with the low will change the forecast a lot and there's a lot of uncertainty on that

Gonzo

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Gonzo, do you think us in the east will see showers on Thursday or even tonight , met seem to speak of Leinster for Thursday but they could be speaking about midlands

I think most of Leinster will have a dry clear night with a severe frost. Cavan, Monaghan and maybe north Meath could see some flurries.

As for Thursday, I think it's still far too early to really say what will happen. Charts from earlier show that Thursday will be a mixed bag of rain, sleet and snow. The position of the front will be crucial because it may not move as far north as many people want, and there are mild sectors involved which would produce cold rain and sleet.

For now the charts look like this, the hatched areas are areas where sleet and snow is possible.



The first chart shows rain across much of the south and more wintry to the north.



The second chart, shows the position of the front at 10pm and most of it is snow and is effecting more northern areas.



Snow hangs around more eastern areas into Friday morning.

I would take these charts with a very large pinch of salt. They most likely will change on the next run and there will plenty of time for this to change between now and Thursday. Last nights snow in the GFS charts only fell in the mountains, so this is absolutely no guarantee where will get snow.

Captain Snow

Snow Trains coming into the West Now.

irish1967

Captain Snow wrote: »

Snow Trains coming into the West Now.

That train is heading straight for me in Donegal Town.

YanSno

Going by the 12z icon model which i rate very highly, the onshore element is there and it's shown very well below. Western half of the country expect some significant accumulations in places, coastal areas mix wintry precipitation.

irishfeen

YanSno wrote: »

Going by the 12z icon model which i rate very highly, the onshore element is there and it's shown very well below. Western half of the country expect some significant accumulations in places, coastal areas mix wintry precipitation.

Have you earlier time run on that model? where is it predicting rain to give way to sleet/snow?

barney 20v

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Well this is a weather forum, and the post is based on the upcoming spell of weather , so if your not interested this isn’t the thread for you

I'll stick to getting forecasts from the professionals if it's all the same to you ?

Guys with Facebook weather pages just don't cut the mustard with me you see...

nacho libre

I would be surprised if the GFS has it right for Thursday. These things have a habit of trending southwards closer to the time.

Mortelaro

Gonzo wrote: »

I think most of Leinster will have a dry clear night with a severe frost. Cavan, Monaghan and maybe north Meath could see some flurries.

As for Thursday, I think it's still far too early to really say what will happen. Charts from earlier show that Thursday will be a mixed bag of rain, sleet and snow. The position of the front will be crucial because it may not move as far north as many people want, and there are mild sectors involved which would produce cold rain and sleet.

For now the charts look like this, the hatched areas are areas where sleet and snow is possible.



Snow hangs around more eastern areas into Friday morning.

I would take these charts with a very large pinch of salt. They most likely will change on the next run and there will plenty of time for this to change between now and Thursday. Last nights snow in the GFS charts only fell in the mountains, so this is absolutely no guarantee where will get snow.

Notice in the GFS one there the lack of hatching off the coast of Dublin
That's where the wind will be coming from so it's logical that similar conditions would affect Dublins coastal areas for a few miles inland

But honestly in my opinion this is very hard to call except on the day or tomorrow night,how far the front goes for one thing

pauldry

The Sligo snow shadow alive and well from snow train.

We only alite the platform when its drizzle

Still hail from 1040am this morning

snowstorm445

YanSno wrote: »

Going by the 12z icon model which i rate very highly, the onshore element is there and it's shown very well below. Western half of the country expect some significant accumulations in places, coastal areas mix wintry precipitation.

This is why these westerly based scenarios are hugely frustrating for people in coastal areas, it comes down to the wire and invariably some places get pasted whereas other areas (almost always Dublin and the east coast) see rain. Really says something that at night in the coldest month of the year the temperature conditions can never be completely right for snow.

And yet even in a weak easterly the precipitation can fall as snow pretty much anywhere, most likely for miles out to sea. Unfortunately recent winters seem to be utterly devoid of them unfortunately (last year excepted).

irishfeen

Model's are all over the place for Thursday ECMWF 12z

Pangea

Roads all white with graupel SW Donegal, lovely to look at.
Higher inland routes must have heavy snow at this stage.

pad199207

irishfeen wrote: »

Model's are all over the place for Thursday ECMWF 12z

That is showing the marine air penetrating quite far inland. Little or no snow to Dublin and North Kildare.

Captain Snow

Pangea wrote: »

Roads all white with graupel SW Donegal, lovely to look at.
Higher inland routes must have heavy snow at this stage.

Watch the Donegal weather channel on Facebook. There is some good photos coming out now.

noobsnow95

Mod/heavy sleet in Limerick city, see this being the trend for the night

dermiek

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Based upon the latest forecast models and my own calculations it appears as though parts of the Midlands, Inland Munster, Leinster and East Connacht could experience some substantial falls of snow, with the possibility of travel disruption in the affected areas.

Firstly we must deal with the risk of some accumulations of snow overnight tonight across the western half of the country, as heavy showers will continue to feed in off the Atlantic, falling predominantly as snow overnight. Lowest temperatures tonight of -3 degrees Celsius.

Following a dry day for most on tomorrow a deepening area of low pressure is set to move southeastwards across the country through the early hours of Thursday morning, with its associated fronts becoming stationary across much of the country, and persisting throughout the remainder of Thursday and into he early hours of Friday.

This low pressure system is expected to bring a mixture of rain and sleet to coastal areas, but its likely to deliver some really substantial falls of snow to inland areas, especially over higher ground. Snowfall accumulations generally could vary between 5-10 cm, though some areas could see snowfalls in excess of 15-20 cm.

Weather warnings are likely to be issued closer to Thursday with orange weather warnings likely, possibly increasing to red weather warnings by Thursday morning depending upon the track of the system and how low temperatures remain on Thursday morning.

Much of the details surrounding this forecast remain uncertain due to the very technical nature of such events. I will do my very best to keep you posted over the coming 36 hours.

Credit: midlands weather channel

Thanks for posting that. Most people on here, me included, appreciate all input.

YanSno

irishfeen wrote: »

Have you earlier time run on that model? where is it predicting rain to give way to sleet/snow?

10am 12z icon. 15z is still rolling out will update if anything changes

Jimbob1977

Now sleeting in South Limerick City - Raheen

Snowbiee21

dermiek wrote: »

Thanks for posting that. Most people on here, me included, appreciate all input.

No worries , it’s nice to see a bunch of forecasters (amateur ) to give their thoughts , your very welcome

Gonzo

Mortelaro wrote: »

Notice in the GFS one there the lack of hatching off the coast of Dublin
That's where the wind will be coming from so it's logical that similar conditions would affect Dublins coastal areas for a few miles inland

But honestly in my opinion this is very hard to call except on the day or tomorrow night,how far the front goes for one thing

My main fear is that this low will run much further south leaving the northern 2/3s of the country dry.

My second fear is that if the low does track into the position that is shown on the GFS, that it will be a disappointment to many people with most eastern counties having cold rain or sleet. It would be very similar to the 11th December 2017 front where snow only fell about 55km inland from the Irish Sea coast.

That GFS is also showing nearly 24 hours of snow across Meath and parts of Dublin, no way is that going to happen. We could easily escape without seeing a single flake.

Tomorrow we should be at least clearer on what exact track this low will take and even when it does arrive on Thursday, it could be a nowcast situation to see where it snows and where it rains. My confidence isn't great on this one.

Mortelaro

Sea area outlook updated on met.ie up to thursday at 6pm mentions rain in the east and south which is a pretty good indication of what Glasnevin is expecting in the coastal east and south

OUTLOOK FOR A FURTHER 24 HOURS UNTIL THURSDAY 31 JANUARY 2019 18:00
Strong southeast winds developing in all sea areas and later increasing strong in the south. Fair for a time, widespread rain in the south and east later.

Forecast issued at: 1800 Tuesday 29 January 2019, valid until: 1800 Wednesday 30 January 2019

munsterlegend

Lightly snowing here again near Mallow. Showers not as heavy as earlier so probably the best is over.

JCX BXC

Cars frozen over here in Galway, next shower should stick.

Captain Snow

Donegal is about to get hammered.

Any Photos of the snow up there now?:)

irishfeen

YanSno wrote: »

10am 12z icon. 15z is still rolling out will update if anything changes

From what I have seen from the various models I think this is the likely outcome, I think we in North Cork will be seeing heavy rain.

JanuarySnowstor

@munsterlegend you also said it wouldn't snow lol. Plenty more showers through the night for southwest

redsteveireland

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Yes I no, I was passing it on for people who haven’t seen

I was reading the forecast with interest until you pointed out who had given it. Sorry but I don't listen to anything he says, very sensationalist at the best of times.

Showers have taken a break here with snow hanging around on grass, cars and houses.

arctictree

Looking snowy for Wicklow uplands on Thursday.

Kermit.de.frog

I think we are depending on a renegade shower to break through to Dublin at some stage if we are to get something overnight.

At the moment there is a long land track with the wind just north of westerly in direction which is not favorable for us.

Fun and games west of the Shannon through the night though.