Snow Ice Warning for Ireland 29 Jan to 03 Feb 2019 *See Mod Note in OP *

sryanbruen

Artane2002 wrote: »

0 flakes this winter for me so far. If we include March, then I can't remember the last snowless winter here. 2017-2018 had snow from December to March, 2016-2017 in February, 2015-2016 in March, 2014-2015 a number of times. 2013-2014 maybe?

2016-17 was my only snowless one, all I observed in February 2017 was muck, muck, muck and more muck with a lot of cloud and drizzle. 2013-14 had snow here on February 11th.

Marengo

Dank Janniels wrote: »

Co galway heading to the city. Yep gona sample a veritable smogasbord of alcomohol beverages!! Well thats the plan anyway!!

All i can say is keep watching the forecasts. See if the precipitation reaches far enough north and after that it's probably 40% snow chance 40% sleet and 20% rain.

dacogawa

Took the afternoon off and headed up to Ticknock, slight snow from around 300m and better the further you went, up towards Fairy Castle it was powder.

Donegal Storm

Nothing much happening in Letterkenny despite what the radar looks like, mostly light hail / snow grains with the odd heavier burst. About 1cm on the ground but melting all the while

aisling86

Should we have a clearer picture of Thursday, in the morning? Just praying my location is inland enough #macroom

highdef

Latest ICON is quite a downgrade, overall





Currently like mainly high ground in some southern parts for any half decent covering, plus the Wicklow Mountains.

This need to upgrade quite a lot in future runs. The ICON has historically been good in these scenarios and is often the most accurate.

Snowbiee21

highdef wrote: »

Latest ICON is quite a downgrade, overall





Currently like mainly high ground in some southern parts for any half decent covering, plus the Wicklow Mountains.

This need to upgrade quite a lot in future runs. The ICON has historically been good in these scenarios and is often the most accurate.

Damp squib

pad199207

Yeah latest ICON really proving that Thursday would really be only a hill event. Well say above 250m or so. That run would have many of us having to drive to see snow or hike or whatever your into.

ninebeanrows

@highdef

It is difficult to believe a model that is so bad ...compare the current icon output to the radar in a few hours.

.

Kermit.de.frog

Sferics being picked up in North Kerry in the last few minutes.

SleetAndSnow

Yeah I was thinking that, its currently showing the snow as falling as not.. snow. But maybe its better when its more heavier snow?

Jojo37

Snowing heavy in North Cork (Buttevant) been snowing off and on since 5 but really sticking now. ⛄️

Marengo

This is Tuesday 10pm. I wouldn't call anything off yet. A lot could change in 24 hours re. where precipitation reaches and what type.. let alone 36 hours.

Pardon the expression but a good -5C hoar of a frost will be a solid block of cold that has to be taken into account.

derekon

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

@highdef

It is difficult to believe a model that is so bad ...compare the current icon output to the radar in a few hours.

.

Is it really? If it can go wrong, it will.......

D

pad199207

Marengo wrote: »

This is Tuesday 10pm. I wouldn't call anything off yet. A lot could change in 24 hours re. where precipitation reaches and what type.. let alone 36 hours.

Pardon the expression but a good -5C hoar of a frost will be a solid block of cold that has to be taken into account.

Yes but the latest runs show a rapidly weakening front.

SleetAndSnow

Just went out to check the snow on the cars in Cork City. Its definitely not powdery and nice feeling like last time. Just feels like hard wet ice.

force eleven

ICON final nail in Thursday coffin. This won't be a disruptive event at all.

SleetAndSnow

force eleven wrote: »

ICON final nail in Thursday coffin. This won't be a disruptive event at all.

I am waiting till the first models of tomorrow till I make a firm decision. ECM still showed an event at 12z, and the 18z models are still changing so they still don't fully know.

davidsr20

force eleven wrote: »

ICON final nail in Thursday coffin. This won't be a disruptive event at all.

Bummer

Marengo

pad199207 wrote: »

Yes but the latest runs show a rapidly weakening front.

True enough..but that can change too. Precipitation rates have often been both under estimated and over estimated very close to events. I've even seen fronts pep up as they meet colder air inland.

Tipperary got such a localised snow event in early December 2010, with nothing forecast 6 hours out.

Obvious caveats about temp, due points etc then, but just on the precip point.

JCX BXC

Snowing again in Galway.

pad199207

That’s a decentish area of precip in the NW heading for the Greater Dublin Area.

sdanseo

18Z HIRLAM rolling out past 24hrs. Its predictions for Thursday will be important. Usually accurate in its short range.
12Z had the front turning rapidly to snow as it crosses the country.

pad199207

force eleven wrote: »

ICON final nail in Thursday coffin. This won't be a disruptive event at all.

Not quite the final nail yet. But a few nails have already gone in alright. Down to the wire tomorrow.

sdanseo

pad199207 wrote: »

That’s a decentish area of precip in the NW heading for the Greater Dublin Area.

That could make it, y'know..

SleetAndSnow

Sister just came in from driving and said the roads are deadly. They look just wet but they have that layer of clear frosty snow I mentioned thats white on the cars. Could be very dangerous in the morning.

highdef

sdanseo wrote: »

18Z HIRLAM rolling out past 24hrs. Its predictions for Thursday will be important. Usually accurate in its short range.
12Z had the front turning rapidly to snow as it crosses the country.

I just watched the 21:55 BBC News weather for the week ahead and they seem to be still going for fairly widespread snow from Dublin (sometimes Meath) down to Clare (almost Galway) although I think it's prerecorded earlier in the day and the info supplied to them these days is from Meteogroup, unlike the Met Office up till recently. The forecaster also said that the front would be more potent than todays front.

Will be interesting what the BBC thinks tomorrow.

Monkeynut

pad199207 wrote: »

That’s a decentish area of precip in the NW heading for the Greater Dublin Area.

sdanseo wrote: »

That could make it, y'know..

ETA 1-2hrs, i make it out, if it stays at that rate.

SleetAndSnow

HIRLAM also seems to remove the southern part of the country from the snow..



Definitely waiting for the next runs, these are still chopping and changing. More precip then ICON shows though.

vistafinder

Come on back. Long way to go yet:)