Snow Ice Warning for Ireland 29 Jan to 03 Feb 2019 *See Mod Note in OP *

jimbobaloobob

Roads are white here west conamara and all along the R339

Monkeynut

Danno wrote: »

https://cam.airlive.net/lhr/

Heathrow looks like its just rain/sleet

It looks as if a fly is filming that through his eyes. lol


Thanks

guil

Cars have been frosting over the last few hours in the Curragh, doubt anything will be gritted for the drive to work in the morning.

Kermit.de.frog

Increasing likelihood that activity to the northwest might make it to Dublin in some form...caution though that even organised bands can fall apart very quickly.

Gaoth Laidir

The showers will be heaviest for a couple more hours, then upper levels (500 hPa) start to warm towards morning. North is best tonight. Latest snow depths in the northern stations

Ballypatrick Forest (Antrim, 156 m): 8 cm
Thomastown (Tyrone, 72 m): 7 cm
Lough Fea (Derry, 225 m): 1 cm

No snow coverage at Knock up to the final manned report at 7 pm. Warnings of <1 cm overnight at Knock and Cork.

EIKN AD WRNG 03 VALID 292359/301000 SNOW FBL < 1CM FCST =

EICK AD WRNG 03 VALID 292200/300900 SNOW FBL < 1CM FCST =

Regarding Thursday, for me it's still a marginal situation where altitude will be key again. With a lot of high cloud coverage throughout Wednesday night I can't see the airmass cooling deep enough over land to flip it the right side of marginal when the rain arrives Thursday. Strong winds will also prevent the air cooling down. Hills and mountains again the best spots, scuttery at lowest levels

FrancieBrady

Snowing heavily here on the Fermanagh Monaghan border. White out at the minute. Surprised.

Foggy Jew

xabi wrote: »

Just drove the M8, it was fairly hairy

Happy you are safely back to base. Bloody Baltic here in South Kildare.

SleetAndSnow

netweather showing the red snow blob over us in cork atm but nothing yet! The excitement

Edit: just as I post this the first flakes start and already fairly heavy

Rougies

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Increasing likelihood that activity to the northwest might make it to Dublin in some form...caution though that even organised bands can fall apart very quickly.

I swear to myself every NWerly I will not fall into the same trap of radar watching that ends in disappointment 99% of the time. Yet here I am again, feck it anyway!

Gonzo

I wouldn't trust tonights runs for Thursday till sometime tomorrow evening to get a more accurate picture.

I'm not really shocked at the runs showing a very marginal mix for Thursday, Ireland historically never does well from Atlantic fronts in cold weather with the exception of the rarest of rare exceptions. We have too much sea all around us and we are the first port of call from the relatively mild Atlantic. It nearly always results in too much modification.

Atlantic fronts usually only deliver proper snow in Ireland if there has been cold air pooling around from an easterly and the front stalls over Ireland or an easterly undercuts it. 1982 being a great example.

latest GFS also shows a very watery mix on Thursday.

Kermit.de.frog

Gonzo wrote: »

I wouldn't trust tonights runs for Thursday till sometime tomorrow evening to get a more accurate picture.

I'm not really shocked at the runs showing a very marginal mix for Thursday, Ireland historically never does well from Atlantic fronts in cold weather with the exception of the rarest of rare exceptions. We have too much sea all around us and we are the first port of call from the relatively mild Atlantic. It nearly always results in too much modification.

Atlantic fronts usually only deliver proper snow in Ireland if there has been cold air pooling around from an easterly and the front stalls over Ireland or an easterly undercuts it. 1982 being a great example.

latest GFS also shows a very watery mix on Thursday.

You may be receiving some flakes within the hour.

Ultimate Seduction

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The showers will be heaviest for a couple more hours, then upper levels (500 hPa) start to warm towards morning. North is best tonight. Latest snow depths in the northern stations

Ballypatrick Forest (Antrim, 156 m): 8 cm
Thomastown (Tyrone, 72 m): 7 cm
Lough Fea (Derry, 225 m): 1 cm

No snow coverage at Knock up to the final manned report at 7 pm. Warnings of <1 cm overnight at Knock and Cork.

EIKN AD WRNG 03 VALID 292359/301000 SNOW FBL < 1CM FCST =

EICK AD WRNG 03 VALID 292200/300900 SNOW FBL < 1CM FCST =

Regarding Thursday, for me it's still a marginal situation where altitude will be key again. With a lot of high cloud coverage throughout Wednesday night I can't see the airmass cooling deep enough over land to flip it the right side of marginal when the rain arrives Thursday. Strong winds will also prevent the air cooling down. Hills and mountains again the best spots, scuttery at lowest levels

"Scuttery"

John.Icy

Surely conditions over Northern France are just as marginal vs. what we are looking for Thursday and they have frontal snow?

People finding it too easy to write off Thursday as cold rain on here.

Weakening of the front however helps no one and that sadly seems to be the message today. HILRAM still has the scenario where the initial front weakens but it starts to regain some intensity later on Thursday evening as the front stalls. Flicking through 850s/DPs etc the airmass gets friendlier into Thursday evening and night so if precip can stick around till then, better chances of some snow.

Hopefully tomorrow we get a clearer picture of what will happen.

dacogawa

HIRLAM doing a wonderful job for rush hour in Dublin on Thursday, something that inconvenient has to come true!

Itssoeasy

Snowing again on the northside of cork city.

ninebeanrows

IR loop can be good indication of when the showers begin to turn. The band heading in the direction of GDA still has nice cold tops

https://en.sat24.com/en

Itssoeasy

And the snow that feel earlier that wasn't gone but where it was driven on was gone is now covered again. Was it meant to be this substantial in cork ? It's not a blizzard or white out conditions but it is very steady and covering a lot.

SleetAndSnow

Itssoeasy wrote: »

And the snow that feel earlier that wasn't gone but where it was driven on was gone is now covered again. Was it meant to be this substantial in cork ? It's not a blizzard or white out conditions but it is very steady and covering a lot.

It's very small flakes in cork city , not a whiteout like earlier showers were. Heavy constant flow though and the road is turning white as is the footpaths. Brilliant.

davidglanza

Outside my house northside of cork city

Donegal Storm

Wouldn't be getting too excited about the stuff in the NW crossing the country, its already fairly light here so if it makes it across it'll be no more than drizzly sh**e.

Around 2cm here now though mostly snow grains and tiny flakes

RuthieRose

Snowing for ages in Cavan. Roads are white.

Monkeynut

Heavy snow in north county Dublin, in like snow heaven.




Oh wait sorry, I must have dozed off, I may have been sleep-typing again.
One can dream...

leahyl

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

It's very small fluakes in cork city , not a whiteout like earlier showers were.

Pretty big flakes where I am!

Itssoeasy

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

It's very small flakes in cork city , not a whiteout like earlier showers were.

Where did I say it wasn't ?

fritzelly

I need a few days off from work, we need a white out in Dublin

SleetAndSnow

leahyl wrote: »

Pretty big flakes where I am!

Yeah just increasing in size in bishopstown now! Road finally gone white and the footpaths too. Can clearly see the salted road outside the estate

Mortelaro

Latest BBC Wales weather graphics has snow through a lot of the Irish sea thursday in easterly's and also consequently on the east coast
Its another plausible outcome considering temps across Wales will have -6 or -7 c thursday morning, and much of central and north wales is snow covered,so that is crucial air in the circulation mitigating the marine layer warming effect if you follow
Photo attached

munsterlegend

BBC has plenty snow down South for Thursday afternoon/evening!! Tomorrow will be interesting as to what Met Eireann think.

EdgeCase

leahyl wrote: »

Pretty big flakes where I am!

Same here not too far from city centre.
Absolutely pelting down with large flakes and the road surface is complete covered

D9Male

John.Icy wrote: »

Surely conditions over Northern France are just as marginal vs. what we are looking for Thursday and they have frontal snow?

People finding it too easy to write off Thursday as cold rain on here.

Weakening of the front however helps no one and that sadly seems to be the message today. HILRAM still has the scenario where the initial front weakens but it starts to regain some intensity later on Thursday evening as the front stalls. Flicking through 850s/DPs etc the airmass gets friendlier into Thursday evening and night so if precip can stick around till then, better chances of some snow.

Hopefully tomorrow we get a clearer picture of what will happen.

Yeah, I agree with you here. Form horse is for a slushy mess at sea level, but it won't take much to upgrade. I think people were bridling at the talk of red weather warnings. The models never consistently showed a widespread heavy snow event to that extent.