6n 2019 Ireland v England Build Up Thread

Henry Ford III

aloooof wrote:

On that point, I wonder what odds on a Farrell red card for a high tackle?

He's led a charmed existence in recent games. Fine player but he oversteps the acceptable sometimes

Zzippy

Deleted User wrote: »

Joe's explanation that Henshaw had trained there since Australia changes things slightly. Its still strange regardless. Can you think of any other time an inside center switched to fullback a few years into his career.

He's a fullback who switched to outside centre who switched to inside centre. That's his career progression to date. He's well able to play any of those positions.

Dubinusa

I don't know what to think!!! A strong game for Henshaw may spell the beginning of the end for the bobbleator?
Getting your best footballers on the pitch would mean that Henshaw has got to start.
Kearney is a one position player and between injury and age, maybe the writing is on the wall.
Whilst nervous about this match, having Toner in relieves some of my anxiety!!!
Clearly, his value is monumental and he's undroppable at the moment. Between POM, Toner and Ryan, our line out should function.
I reckon we will see rotation week in this tourney.
Obviously, lads like Addison and Beirne will have to get a run. Conway also if healthy.
Next week I expect at least 3 changes from the 23.
Possibly Scannell starting along with SOB. Addison to 23.
Getting the matchups and chemistry right in top flight competition, is better than throwaway rec build up fixtures imo.

This is going to be a brutal, ugly game. England credit to them look to be trying to do their own thing. The last few losses to Ireland came from not being able to secure quick ruck ball and not being able to slow Irish ball and you wouldn't have been surprised if they went with two traditional open sides in the backrow and a 6.5 in the second row who is good over the ball.

Instead they've gone with no open side bar a kid with little test experience and neither second row are noted for stealing ball.

They've plenty of gainline breakers but I think the word of the day on Saturday is going to be isolation. England are going to break an unusually high number of tackles but get turned over by the more mobile and technically accurate pack.

Van der Flier will be man of the match.

Going to be a lot of sore bodies after 80 minutes.

Ireland will win by more than 10 points.

Does anyone else want to do the match thread by the way?

Stheno

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Does anyone else want to do the match thread by the way?

No. Off with you

PhlegmyMoses

[Deleted User] wrote: »

This is going to be a brutal, ugly game. England credit to them look to be trying to do their own thing. The last few losses to Ireland came from not being able to secure quick ruck ball and not being able to slow Irish ball and you wouldn't have been surprised if they went with two traditional open sides in the backrow and a 6.5 in the second row who is good over the ball.

Instead they've gone with no open side bar a kid with little test experience and neither second row are noted for stealing ball.

They've plenty of gainline breakers but I think the word of the day on Saturday is going to be isolation. England are going to break an unusually high number of tackles but get turned over by the more mobile and technically accurate pack.

Van der Flier will be man of the match.

Going to be a lot of sore bodies after 80 minutes.

Ireland will win by more than 10 points.

I am so happy that VDF is playing. Man is a complete workhorse

Former Former

Ireland are nine-point favourites. Wow.

Former Former

Former Former wrote: »

Ireland are nine-point favourites. Wow.

My understanding of betting is that this doesn't mean Ireland are nine-point favourites, it means that a lot of people think Ireland are at least 1 point favourites.

Eitherway - we'll win by 10+

troyzer

Deleted User wrote: »

Former Former wrote: »

Ireland are nine-point favourites. Wow.

My understanding of betting is that this doesn't mean Ireland are nine-point favourites, it means that a lot of people think Ireland are at least 1 point favourites.

Eitherway - we'll win by 10+

It just means that a lot of the punters are betting on Ireland. I think the Rams opened up at 3 point favourites in the Superbowl but punters have bet heavily against them to the point that they're now 2 or 3 point underdogs.

Ireland 65-0 England.

irishbucsfan

Deleted User wrote: »

My understanding of betting is that this doesn't mean Ireland are nine-point favourites, it means that a lot of people think Ireland are at least 1 point favourites.

Eitherway - we'll win by 10+

It means the people who set the line think +9 is the spread that will generate the most amount of profit. Beyond that it could be anything.

Squidgy Black

irishbucsfan wrote: »

It means the people who set the line think +9 is the spread that will generate the most amount of profit. Beyond that it could be anything.

Yup. It's the middle ground of where the bookies feel it'll encourage people to throw the money on it, but also where the bookies have a reasonable shot at making a profit themselves.

It's really just an educated guess, with some contingency built in.

A spread of +9 will make a killing because the Irish media are hyping Ireland up and there's a belief we can trample England, but also the UK markets would snap that off in a heartbeat for England to beat a spread set that high.

Zzippy

I know it's a financial calculation, but at the same time it's amazing how often they get the spread spot on, or very close to the result.

Former Former

I'll rephrase.

The handicap at which Paddy Power are offering odds of 10/11 on an Ireland win is -9.0 points.

Wow.

awec

I'd take that bet.

We'll beat that spread.

Squidgy Black

Former Former wrote: »

I'll rephrase.

The handicap at which Paddy Power are offering odds of 10/11 on an Ireland win is -9.0 points.

Wow.

Yeah the bookies/the media are pushing this as Ireland going to dominate.

I just can't see a 10 point + win, even with home advantage, unless we absolutely play out if our skins or England end up a man down etc.

Shane732

Has anyone got a replay of the Ireland vs All Black game?!

steves2

Shane732 wrote: »

Has anyone got a replay of the Ireland vs All Black game?!

Only in my heart

Burkie1203

vienne86 wrote: »

Delighted with that team. Really looking forward to seeing how Henshaw gets on. McGrath obviously isn't right, but Kilcoyne has been going really well and deserves the pick. Slightly surprised by Roux getting in ahead of Dillane.

I'm nearly afraid to watch this match......it'll be a battle. Hope there are no serious injuries.

Henshaw is likely to operate exactly the same way Kearney has the last few years. Identify where your support is when returning kicks and set the platform for Murray to put up a contestable box kick.

Tracy spoke about Ireland not having any/many defensive 5m line outs in recent times. Will be interesting to see how that pans out too with Henshaws positioning and if our wingers are up in the line Or if they drop back.

joseywhales

I honestly expect a one point game. 10-9. We have too many changes and it's the first game I expect nail biting mistakes by both team and conservative play.

Both benches are about as good as the starters they'll replace.

Synode

I think we'll beat them well. We're better coached and organised and have better players. Ireland by 15

Dubinusa

A good old fashioned knob battering would be fine.
Just to shut the little imbecile up. EJ is a plonker and a cocky ballbag.
A royal asskicking would be nice.

pc7

It’ll be tough but think we’ll win, my main worry is who’s left standing after it. some late tackles on Johnny, or big hits by the English wrecking balls, don’t want anyone badly hurt week 1.

reg114

joseywhales wrote: »

I honestly expect a one point game. 10-9. We have too many changes and it's the first game I expect nail biting mistakes by both team and conservative play.

Both benches are about as good as the starters they'll replace.

From today's Irish times : 'It is a measure of the contrasting state of flux between the two that Ireland retain 12 of their starting line-up from their Twickenham coronation on that Baltic St Patrick’s Day 10 months ago, and 16 of their match-day squad, whereas England retain six of their XV and eight of their 23.'

Given where we are in our development and given what our aspirations are this year as far as the world cup is concerned, and taking into consideration the opposition, I believe anything other than a victory would be completely unacceptable. We totally dominated the All Blacks 3 months ago and this England team are nowhere near them as far as quality is concerned. Saturday will be all about mental strength, if we believe we are superior, which we are, individually and collectively then we should win. If we let the English bully us and dictate the pace and sow a seed of doubt then we are in trouble.

Buer

Dubinusa wrote: »

A good old fashioned knob battering would be fine.

You've been hanging out with Venjur again, haven't you?

Zzippy

reg114 wrote: »

From today's Irish times : 'It is a measure of the contrasting state of flux between the two that Ireland retain 12 of their starting line-up from their Twickenham coronation on that Baltic St Patrick’s Day 10 months ago, and 16 of their match-day squad, whereas England retain six of their XV and eight of their 23.'

Given where we are in our development and given what our aspirations are this year as far as the world cup is concerned, and taking into consideration the opposition, I believe anything other than a victory would be completely unacceptable. We totally dominated the All Blacks 3 months ago and this England team are nowhere near them as far as quality is concerned. Saturday will be all about mental strength, if we believe we are superior, which we are, individually and collectively then we should win. If we let the English bully us and dictate the pace and sow a seed of doubt then we are in trouble.

England very nearly beat NZ too.

flatface

Zzippy wrote: »

England very nearly beat NZ too.

In much less convincing style though. Was a completely different performance from both teams to the NZ vs IRE. Apples and oranges.

aloooof

flatface wrote: »

In much less convincing style though. Was a completely different performance from both teams to the NZ vs IRE. Apples and oranges.

But that just further serves to show how small the margins are.

OldRio

Zzippy wrote: »

England very nearly beat NZ too.

Ah now. The days of 'nearly beat NZ' are over for Ireland
The days of 'if only, unlucky and plucky underdogs' are finished.
Anything can happen on the day but if this team plays to its potential a win should happen.

Clegg

One area where Henshaw definitely has an edge over Kearney is in passing. It's a rather underrated aspect of his game which he only really gets to show when he's playing for Leinster.

I know Kearney is playing to the game plan where the idea isn't to distribute from 15, but he's never been a great passer anyway. With Henshaw at fullback we might see him slipping in as a second receiver from time to time. He could truck it up or pass it. Keep the opposition guessing.

flatface

aloooof wrote: »

But that just further serves to show how small the margins are.

Watching those 2 games there was no doubt who the best team of the 3 were at the time. Hopefully we can start back in at the same level - if we do I can’t see Eng getting much of a look in. If we start slow they have a really good chance of an upset. First quarter is going to be a nail biter

flatface

OldRio wrote: »

Ah now. The days of 'nearly beat NZ' are over for Ireland
The days of 'if only, unlucky and plucky underdogs' are finished.
Anything can happen on the day but if this team plays to its potential a win should happen.

Yep nearly = nada

Zzippy

flatface wrote: »

Watching those 2 games there was no doubt who the best team of the 3 were at the time. Hopefully we can start back in at the same level - if we do I can’t see Eng getting much of a look in. If we start slow they have a really good chance of an upset. First quarter is going to be a nail biter

The only caveat to that is that Ireland have a habit of starting slowly and taking a game or two to get up to full speed. We were by far a better team than France last year and nearly lost that game. We can't afford to start slowly this year.

aloooof

Zzippy wrote: »

The only caveat to that is that Ireland have a habit of starting slowly and taking a game or two to get up to full speed. We were by far a better team than France last year and nearly lost that game. We can't afford to start slowly this year.

It's a habit we could really do with shaking off. We have our most important RWC group game against Scotland up first.

shootermacg

Zzippy wrote: »

England very nearly beat NZ too.

This has me worried, they created more chances than us too. So their defense is pretty solid and their attack I'd consider better.

It was bad decisions that lost them the AB game, but they're lost a seven and gained 2 monsters, fair trade...hard to say.

Clegg

shootermacg wrote: »

Zzippy wrote: »

England very nearly beat NZ too.

This has me worried, they created more chances than us too. So their defense is pretty solid and their attack I'd consider better.

It was bad decisions that lost them the AB game, but they're lost a seven and gained 2 monsters, fair trade...hard to say.

Billy V and Tuilagi returning to the side is huge for them. But trade offs have to be made. You can't lift Vunipola so you lose a lineout option. So Kruis has to start in the 2nd row despite Launchbury being a better player. Tuilagi is a wrecking ball and will get over the gain line. But he isn't a distributor a la Farrell. So the wide game could be weakened.

It'll be tough, but if Ireland can contain England's ball carriers they've an excellent chance of winning.

aloooof

Clegg wrote: »

Billy V and Tuilagi returning to the side is huge for them. But trade offs have to be made. You can't lift Vunipola so you lose a lineout option. So Kruis has to start in the 2nd row despite Launchbury being a better player. Tuilagi is a wrecking ball and will get over the gain line. But he isn't a distributor a la Farrell. So the wide game could be weakened.

Would Kruis be considered that much a poorer lineout option than Launchbury?

ispeakdatruth

I think England will do better than most expect.
Ireland to win by only 20+

stephen_n

It’s hard to compare those two games. After the England game a lot of people were saying NZ never play badly two weeks in a row and they were right they didn’t. It’s fair to say though NZ were not at their best against England and still came out on top. We were in top of your game the following week and NZ were a lot better. All that really tells us though is that we need to be on top of our game this weekend too. I think we will win by more than a score, but still think it’s going to be a hard fought win, with no margin for being less than 100%. With Billy V back England are a very different prospect.

thomond2006

ispeakdatruth wrote: »

I think England will do better than most expect.
Ireland to win by only 20+

Clegg

aloooof wrote: »

Clegg wrote: »

Billy V and Tuilagi returning to the side is huge for them. But trade offs have to be made. You can't lift Vunipola so you lose a lineout option. So Kruis has to start in the 2nd row despite Launchbury being a better player. Tuilagi is a wrecking ball and will get over the gain line. But he isn't a distributor a la Farrell. So the wide game could be weakened.

Would Kruis be considered that much a poorer lineout option than Launchbury?

Sorry. I meant that Kruis is the better lineout option, but Launchbury is better in most other areas. But since Ireland have some world class options at the set piece England must sacrifice a better all rounder for someone who's strong at the lineout.

Buer

Decent point about the line out. England are quite restricted there. Brad Shields was their designated back row jumping option in the autumn. Vunipola can be lifted but it's rare and it's lumbering. I would expect them to try and use Curry as an option given he's relatively light for a forward and is capable in the air. He isn't a noted target but I think he could really develop there in future.

With POM in the Irish back row and Toner providing an awkward obstacle to navigate beyond, we should be putting serious pressure on their throw. Kruis is going to have his work cut out running the line out.

Buer

aloooof wrote: »

Would Kruis be considered that much a poorer lineout option than Launchbury?

Other way around (Launchbury would be considered poorer) and Kruis would be a comfortably better jumper. He also runs the English line out (and Saracens) so is pretty key to them there.

Launchbury is a big lump. He's not a bad jumper but he wouldn't have the same athleticism as Kruis.

aloooof

Clegg wrote: »

Sorry. I meant that Kruis is the better lineout option, but Launchbury is better in most other areas. But since Ireland have some world class options at the set piece England must sacrifice a better all rounder for someone who's strong at the lineout.

Buer wrote: »

Other way around (Launchbury would be considered poorer) and Kruis would be a comfortably better jumper. He also runs the English line out (and Saracens) so is pretty key to them there.

Launchbury is a big lump. He's not a bad jumper but he wouldn't have the same athleticism as Kruis.

Sorry ya, I worded that back-asswards.

Squidgy Black

Buer wrote: »

Decent point about the line out. England are quite restricted there. Brad Shields was their designated back row jumping option in the autumn. Vunipola can be lifted but it's rare and it's lumbering. I would expect them to try and use Curry as an option given he's relatively light for a forward and is capable in the air. He isn't a noted target but I think he could really develop there in future.

With POM in the Irish back row and Toner providing an awkward obstacle to navigate beyond, we should be putting serious pressure on their throw. Kruis is going to have his work cut out running the line out.

Robshaw was another regular target in their lineout who's out too.

I don't think Curry jumps regularly for Sale. I'd say we'll see a lot of Itoje at the front to try compete with POM, and then Kruis on Toner.

stephen_n

Squidgy Black wrote: »

Robshaw was another regular target in their lineout who's out too.

I don't think Curry jumps regularly for Sale. I'd say we'll see a lot of Itoje at the front to try compete with POM, and then Kruis on Toner.

I’d be quite happy if they try Itoje against POM, didn’t work to well on their last visit to Dublin if memory serves correct.

baas baa

Wonder will Aki line up at 13 in defence, I've no fears for Ringrose there but it'll be very attritional and given Aki's comfort at 13 it might make it ideal. In attack I think the plan will be to get Ringrose into the wider channels and cut back inside Tuilagi with Henshaw and Aki running trailing lines off him.

aloooof

baas baa wrote: »

Wonder will Aki line up at 13 in defence, I've no fears for Ringrose there but it'll be very attritional and given Aki's comfort at 13 it might make it ideal. In attack I think the plan will be to get Ringrose into the wider channels and cut back inside Tuilagi with Henshaw and Aki running trailing lines off him.

Think it's more likely Aki stays at 12 opposite Tuilagi.

All_in_Flynn

stephen_n wrote: »

It’s hard to compare those two games. After the England game a lot of people were saying NZ never play badly two weeks in a row and they were right they didn’t. It’s fair to say though NZ were not at their best against England and still came out on top. We were in top of your game the following week and NZ were a lot better. All that really tells us though is that we need to be on top of our game this weekend too. I think we will win by more than a score, but still think it’s going to be a hard fought win, with no margin for being less than 100%. With Billy V back England are a very different prospect.

Just a further point on that Eng v NZ game. The weather that day was horrendous and a massive leveller I think. A dry day and I think NZ would have been out of sight by 60mins. Think I recall a number of uncharacteristic handling errors by NZ after they had made initial breaks and had England stretched.

I just wouldn’t be reading too much into that England performance.

In saying that, Billy V makes such a difference to them.

roverjoyce

reg114 wrote: »

From today's Irish times : 'It is a measure of the contrasting state of flux between the two that Ireland retain 12 of their starting line-up from their Twickenham coronation on that Baltic St Patrick’s Day 10 months ago, and 16 of their match-day squad, whereas England retain six of their XV and eight of their 23.'

Given where we are in our development and given what our aspirations are this year as far as the world cup is concerned, and taking into consideration the opposition, I believe anything other than a victory would be completely unacceptable. We totally dominated the All Blacks 3 months ago and this England team are nowhere near them as far as quality is concerned. Saturday will be all about mental strength, if we believe we are superior, which we are, individually and collectively then we should win. If we let the English bully us and dictate the pace and sow a seed of doubt then we are in trouble.

I cant agree with that when you look at who is playing tomorrow is replacing in the team. It is going to be one hell of a battle
Its hard to know how many Irish will be standing to play in Murrayfield next week

Playing Replacing
Mark Wilson Chris Robshaw
Tom Curry James Haskell
Billy Vunipola Sam Simmonds
Ben Youngs Richard Wigglesworth
Jack Nowell Anthony Watson
Manu Tuilagi Ben Te'o
Henry Slade Jonathan Joseph
Luke Cowan-Dickie Dylan Hartley (c)
Ellis Genge Joe Marler
Harry Williams Dan Cole
Courtney Lawes Joe Launchbury
Nathan Hughes Don Armand
Dan Robson Danny Care
Chris Ashton Mike Brown