Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

RobMc59

prawnsambo wrote: »

And they won't be eligible for the EHIC. So either pay in Spain or head back to blighty for treatment.



You could say that "The pain in Spain is mainly on the planes"

Has that decision only just been made public?The reason I ask is my sister has lived in Spain for the last 20 years and as of last Friday did`nt know what was happening about health care.

listermint

RobMc59 wrote: »

Has that decision only just been made public?The reason I ask is my sister has lived in Spain for the last 20 years and as of last Friday did`nt know what was happening about health care.

That decision was always on the cards it just wasnt advertised by brexiteers or their BBC mouth piece.

Remainers have been telling people this but sure project fear and all that....

Your sister will have to pay for health care . She will no longer be an EU citizen in accordance with how her government want it

RobMc59

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Spain doesn't allow dual nationality. As Windrush showed living in a country for 30 years doesn't necessarily mean it's easy to stay.


On top of all of that new pension rules will clawback 25% of what's going overseas from the end of next year or thereabouts.

And don't expect the Spanish government to spend much time or money on the ex-pats before Brexit day.
Spanish PM to announce snap election soon after budget vote:
If there's a election then it would be from April 14th onwards.

Spain is indeed out of step with the rest of Europe over a number of things and this is one of them-the other is refusing to give up it`s Moroccan "protectorates".

RobMc59

listermint wrote: »

That decision was always on the cards it just wasnt advertised by brexiteers or their BBC mouth piece.

Remainers have been telling people this but sure project fear and all that....

Your sister will have to pay for health care . She will no longer be an EU citizen in accordance with how her government want it

I honestly don`t know,although she reckons she pays tax there so perhaps that will cover her.

Capt'n Midnight

Thing to remember is that we can use TIR to bypass UK customs.

Padlock the container, stick a big blue TIR sign on the truck and get waved through the customs queues.

Only the driver and cab need to be checked, and you can bypass that if you send the container/trailer unaccompanied like half the traffic on the Irish Sea already is. Local driver picks it up in Ireland / UK / France.

prawnsambo

RobMc59 wrote: »

Has that decision only just been made public?The reason I ask is my sister has lived in Spain for the last 20 years and as of last Friday did`nt know what was happening about health care.

It's dependant on residency, so if she has residency after a no-deal brexit, she should be ok. It's the winter sojourners that would mainly have a problem. Also, interestingly, Irish citizens resident in the UK will also not be eligible.

Hurrache

Is there anyone left believing that May isn't just running down the clock?

They are pretending to negotiate while they still don’t know what they want and how they want it,” the source said, who described this week’s meetings as “kicking up dust” and a series of “photo opportunities and pictures”. “We are willing to negotiate, but there is nothing on the table from the British side.”

Verhofstadt asked Lidington four times what the British proposal was and “four times didn’t get an answer”, according to the EU official, who described the encounter as “very surreal”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/13/kicking-up-dust-little-sign-of-progress-in-uk-eu-talks

L1011

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Thing to remember is that we can use TIR to bypass UK customs.

Padlock the container, stick a big blue TIR sign on the truck and get waved through the customs queues.

Only the driver and cab need to be checked, and you can bypass that if you send the container/trailer unaccompanied like half the traffic on the Irish Sea already is. Local driver picks it up in Ireland / UK / France.

The issue there is that the ports are likely to be too chaotic to be able to expedite TIR traffic until they get close to the customs inspection areas anyway; and the risk of physical uproar from British truckers when they see Irish/French trucks getting past them.

prawnsambo

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Thing to remember is that we can use TIR to bypass UK customs.

Padlock the container, stick a big blue TIR sign on the truck and get waved through the customs queues.

Only the driver and cab need to be checked, and you can bypass that if you send the container/trailer unaccompanied like half the traffic on the Irish Sea already is. Local driver picks it up in Ireland / UK / France.

Only works if there's a special through lane set aside for TIR vehicles. I'm not sanguine that this could be managed in the lorry park that Dover (and most of Kent) will become.

VinLieger

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-planning-emergency-supplies-seaborne-freight-chris-grayling-a8777766.html

Now they are admitting that there is no possibility of emergency supplies of any kind being delivered if they are needed in a no deal scenario as they screwed it up and its too late to fix it.... Just add it to the list i suppose

Have we heard anything more about the barges that were going to be sailed to belfast to keep the lights on in NI?

RobMc59

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's dependant on residency, so if she has residency after a no-deal brexit, she should be ok. It's the winter sojourners that would mainly have a problem. Also, interestingly, Irish citizens resident in the UK will also not be eligible.

Thanks,it`s all very confusing-I receive emails from gov.uk about UK nationals living in the EU,the latest was an update for UK nationals living in Iceland,Liechtenstein and Norway and they don`t really explain anything!

Capt'n Midnight

prawnsambo wrote: »

Only works if there's a special through lane set aside for TIR vehicles. I'm not sanguine that this could be managed in the lorry park that Dover (and most of Kent) will become.

They've two choices.

Operation Stack and have the M20 gridlocked, or expedite the TIR and empty trailers on to the ferries or tunnel.

There's even less space in Holyhead. NI trucks from the UK could also use TIR.

Doesn't using local drivers and tractors bypass the need for ECMT permits ?

Valhallapt

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

They've two choices.

Operation Stack and have the M20 gridlocked, or expedite the TIR and empty trailers on to the ferries or tunnel.

There's even less space in Holyhead. NI trucks from the UK could also use TIR.

Doesn't using local drivers and tractors bypass the need for ECMT permits ?

What percentage of traffic going through Dover will be TIR ?

CelticRambler

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

They've two choices.

Operation Stack and have the M20 gridlocked, or expedite the TIR and empty trailers on to the ferries or tunnel.

Actually, three choices - most of the "needs checking" vehicles will be corralled in the repurposed Manston airport and released when there's space available at Dover. I presume they'll do something similar with the portion of the M20 that is also being repurposed for holding Folkestone traffic.

In theory, this would allow empty and TIR freight to go straight to the port and onwards, but if those vehicles are taking up all the available space on the ferries/train, then that's going to make things even worse for the domestic hauliers, creating longer delays, more congestion and eventually moving the bottlenecks further up the motorway, closer to London.

There are a heck of a lot of Tory voters in Ashford, Maidstone, Faversham and Sittingbourne who will not appreciate having an hour or two added to their commute.

Capt'n Midnight

Valhallapt wrote: »

What percentage of traffic going through Dover will be TIR ?

I don't know.

The UK has 10 times the population and is a lot closer. So I'd imagine our traffic would be a fraction of the empty trucks going back to the continent.

Because the UK sells services to buy EU goods. A model that won't work out so well if they don't get a deal that allows services.





Swiss shipments already use TIR to bypass EU customs inspections.

Please note they have to do checks on arrival as they aren't in a customs union with the UK..
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46739895

any lorries arriving from a non-EU country, such as Switzerland, are subject to longer delays.

"If customs don't want to check anything, that would [still] delay the vehicle by about an hour or an hour and a half [while the driver waits for a decision]," Andrew Baxter, the managing director of the freight logistics company Europa Worldwide, told a House of Commons Committee last year.

"If customs wanted to do a documentary check, that could delay it by up to three hours, and if there was an inspection of the goods, that could delay it by up to five hours," he added.

Imreoir2

First Up wrote: »

Has the UK been subjected to terrorist attacks from EU citizens?

Well, yes, but they want to continue giving Irish people unrestricted access to the UK and Ireland has certainly been the biggest source of EU based terrorism in the UK.

Imreoir2

J Mysterio wrote: »

I see Bertie graciously offered his time to the Exiting the European Union Committee in Westminster today.

One particular highlight seems to have been his citing 'an 800-year past of difficulties', as reported by the Irish Times. There is a snippet of video in the article on this. It was in relation to comments on the suggestion that 'Ireland throws in its lot with the UK'.

I'll try and watch this in full later on parliament tv.

He made a good point that constitutionally NI is not an integral part of the UK in the same way that Finchly is. The argument that there is and can be no difference between NI and the rest of the UK is simply wrong in constitutional terms because of the GFA.

J Mysterio

Folkstonian wrote: »

Threats to commit acts of violence because you’re unhappy with a democratic decision are utterly abhorrent of course. It makes me angry that anyone, regardless of their position, would use them for leverage in the path we take towards the future relationship with Europe.

But I am talking more about the divide and bitterness in wider society. The portrayal of leave voters as one monolithic block of thick, ignorant, racist b*stards. The real visceral nastiness on social media, local newsletters, and national news publications.

A case in point would be today I saw a link from twitter (not a user myself but I know things like this are very prevalent) of someone urging business owners to fire Brexit voters before remain voters if they are forced to let staff go. It has hundreds of likes. Not only would that be completely criminal of course, but it’s just sickeningly nasty in my opinion as well.

Not sure, honestly, how we begin to remedy a fractured society, but I don’t place any faith at all in the extreme remain side to participate in any reconciliation and reconstruction efforts

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and read that you are bemoaning the damage done to UK democracy and it's society by Brexit, and not just directing your 'blame' for this degredation on the 'Remainers'.

You were quite lucid here before, I worry that your approach is now more 'the people voted for Brexit and that's what they will get!' Bing, bang, bosh. Brexit is depressing, i'll grant you, but it's also stupid, and thus it needs to be called out.

It is Brexit fatigue that May is banking on right now though. That and intense pressure. And she is going to subject us all to it. 'Hold our nerve!' she says. This is now her legacy for May. She held her nerve and won Brexit! A 'bloody difficult woman' with 'nerves of steel'! The Iron Lady and the Steel Woman.

black forest

Wow, the back stop in full view at a fresh uploaded document by the NIAC (Northern Ireland Affairs Committee). The first time i see the organisation behind it. Very clear structured. But have to read it a second time to get the little twists.


https://twitter.com/dphinnemore/status/1095786076789190664?s=21


The pdf direct:

http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/northern-ireland-affairs-committee/implications-of-the-eu-withdrawal-agreement-and-the-backstop-for-northern-ireland/written/95334.pdf


I knew that Dr. Katy Hayward was involved in consultations but that came a little bit as a surprise.;)

Tell me how

If anyone is looking for a form of Question Time unplugged, Nolan Live is on BBC NI at the moment. Stehen Nolan is chair and guests include Jim Allister of the Traditional Unionist Party who just said to Nolan - "You can't snipe at me like an IRA man and not let me answer"

The anger and fear of a No Deal in some audience members is not concealed in the slightest.

Another line from an audience member quoting Mark Twain was "Politicians and diapers should be changed regularly. For the same reason"

Imreoir2

downcow wrote: »

Lets park Project Fear etc. for a moment
what do you guys really think life will be like in NI (and indeed in ROI) in 2 years if we have a no deal on 29th March? I am curious!

I don't expect that a no-deal scenario would last for two years. The honest answer to your question is that by then the UK will have agreed a WA type deal with the EU including a backstop which in that scenario would have to be implemented immediatly to allow for the removal of a hard border. In return for this the UK would get a bare bones trade agreement while a comprehensive trade agreement is prepared. As such, life in NI will be much as it is now, but with greater unemployment as an aftershock of the Brexit chaos of mid 2019 and with greater pressure on public services as a result of the cuts the UK government would have been forced to implement due to the UK wide recession a no-deal would cause. There may or may not be a movement to a border poll in that scenario, depending on how long the chaotic period lasts before the UK comes back to the table and the extent to which this agreement succeeds in putting the border poll genie back in the bottle.

If for some reason I am wrong about the UK agreeing a WA type agreement with the EU and a full on no-deal lasts for two years, then I fully expect NI to be well on the way to holding a border poll if it has not already happened within that two years, and there is no reason to simply assume that the vote would be in favour of remaining in the UK in that scenario.

Imreoir2

downcow wrote: »

I am just watching Bertie on the chair on rte 1 news. My surprise is that you guys complain about UK media supporting Brexit (which I think is nonsense) but on rte 1 the interviewer should have sat closer to Bertie with her arm around him for their love-in. That would never be tolerated on UK TV. It was remarkable as she even laughed in agreement at the stupid UK. I rarely watch rte news but i was shocked at the absence of a single challenge, it was like she was interviewing her grandfather.

When someone says the sky is blue, it is not the job of a journalist to find someone claiming that the sky is in fact neon green to challenge them.

ThePanjandrum

Tell me how wrote: »

If anyone is looking for a form of Question Time unplugged, Nolan Live is on BBC NI at the moment. Stehen Nolan is chair and guests include Jim Allister of the Traditional Unionist Party who just said to Nolan - "You can't snipe at me like an IRA man and not let me answer"

The anger and fear of a No Deal in some audience members is not concealed in the slightest.

Another line from an audience member quoting Mark Twain was "Politicians and diapers should be changed regularly. For the same reason"

Twain was an amazing man. Evidently, he first said this quote more than 70 years after his death in 1910.

ThePanjandrum

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Twain was an amazing man. Evidently, he first said this quote more than 70 years after his death in 1910.

1993 to be exact.

ThePanjandrum

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The UK police only use the Schengen Information System II 539,000,000 times a year.

I can remember when the UK used to mess up the paperwork on extradition requests from here.

There are approximately 125,000 members of the police force in the UK. The quoted figure would mean that each and every one of them would make an average of 4,300 queries each year.

I'm sceptical.

Sierra Oscar

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

There are approximately 125,000 members of the police force in the UK. The quoted figure would mean that each and every one of them would make an average of 4,300 queries each year.

I'm sceptical.

A lot of these queries would be automatically carried out though as people enter in and out of the UK and so on.

It's not as if every single police officer is ringing up a hotline looking for information. That's not how it works at all.

It's basically a shared database amongst all EU member states allowing police officers in the UK determine if a person has been convicted of a crime elsewhere in the EU or if an intelligence record exists for that person. It's a fairly handy tool for fighting crime. Loosing access to the database will have an impact on policing.

ThePanjandrum

RobMc59 wrote: »

Spain is indeed out of step with the rest of Europe over a number of things and this is one of them-the other is refusing to give up it`s Moroccan "protectorates".

Mellila and Ceuta are not protectorates, legally they are Spanish territory and will never be allowed independence.

ThePanjandrum

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

A lot of these queries would be automatically carried out though as people enter in and out of the UK and so on.

538,000,000 of them?

Inquitus

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

538,000,000 of them?

I would imagine they try and pattern match information with the DB as and when they have it, so one criminal may take up thousands of DB calls.

Rain Ascending

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I don't expect that a no-deal scenario would last for two years.

<<snipped some good analysis and very plausible predictions>>

I agree.

There has been a good deal of commentary in the UK regarding the practical impacts of no deal (and even there, there a lot is of dubious quality), but very little on the resulting political developments. It's clear that a lot of the latent support for no deal within the UK population is based on its apparent simplicity, the idea that with one bound the country is "free of the shackles of the EU". Of course, the idea that the UK could sustain a situation where it doesn't have normalized relationships with most of Europe is completely nuts.

D1ND (the British Civil Service term for the first day of a no-deal Brexit) would be the start of yet another vicious argument within the UK as to the next steps, with plenty of unicorns in the mix: continued no-deal, managed no-deal, mini-deal no deal, negotiations for Canada+++, Malting House, current WA + FTA, etc., etc. And that's before the EU sets it parameters for its negotiation position (most probably a variant on today's WA, adapted for a post-A50 legal framework).

And then the first of the practical impacts of no-deal Brexit start to be felt, raising the stakes even further.

The UK government would be faced with some serious decisions in a fraught political environment. Many from the Brexiteer wing will complain that this wasn't "the no-deal scenario they would have chosen"!

[Incidentally, this is why putting a no-deal option on a ballot paper in any second referendum would be meaningless without additional qualification.]

Politically, no-deal is no easy escape for the UK... the political chaos would continue.