Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

otnomart

Tweet by Martin Selmayr: "The meeting (with the Exiting the EU Select Committee) confirmed that the EU did well to start its no deal preparations in December 2017".
Link: https://twitter.com/MartinSelmayr/status/1092409534029746178

Tell me how

briany wrote: »

I haven't seen a proper proposal on technological solutions. I've just seen assertions that they exist and some references to the Sweden/Norway border. Has the UK put a together any kind of presentation for the EU to show a workable tech border?

And even at that, there's only a bit less than two months left, so what would tech border advocates be saying? That they could get it ready in that time?

That is the whole point.

All of the conversations about international treaties, sovereignty, technology advances, governance, 2.5 years debate and thousands of hours discussion and analysis and one side in this is effectively saying

"There are other solutions but you need to go an find them and implement them and we will not tell you what they are and if you don't it is your fault for not delivering the best possible Brexit for the UK".

I'm not even joking with that statement, that is essentially where we are at.

Seth Brundle

The CBI is a UK business lobby group. According to their website, the "CBI speaks on behalf of 190,000 businesses of all sizes and sectors. Together they employ nearly 7 million people, about one third of the private sector-employed workforce".
they are pretty explicit in their opposition to a no-deal Brexit...
https://twitter.com/CBItweets/status/1092399873817743360

briany

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The CBI is a UK business lobby group. According to their website, the "CBI speaks on behalf of 190,000 businesses of all sizes and sectors. Together they employ nearly 7 million people, about one third of the private sector-employed workforce".
they are pretty explicit in their opposition to a no-deal Brexit...
https://twitter.com/CBItweets/status/1092399873817743360

"F*** business!"

- Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson

Tell me how

briany wrote: »

"F*** business!"

- Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson

Yes but the line in bold is key.

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The CBI is a UK business lobby group. According to their website, the "CBI speaks on behalf of 190,000 businesses of all sizes and sectors. Together they employ nearly 7 million people, about one third of the private sector-employed workforce".
they are pretty explicit in their opposition to a no-deal Brexit...
https://twitter.com/CBItweets/status/1092399873817743360

These companies have to be communicating clearly with their employees as to the potential risks and likely difficulties ahead but the problem will then be getting those peoples voices heard as we have seen certain elements of the media seeming to skew towards supporting Brexit under the pretext of supporting democracy while choosing to ignore it happening in front of their faces.

briany

Tell me how wrote: »

Yes but the line in bold is key.



These companies have to be communicating clearly with their employees as to the potential risks and likely difficulties ahead but the problem will then be getting those peoples voices heard as we have seen certain elements of the media seeming to skew towards supporting Brexit under the pretext of supporting democracy while choosing to ignore it happening in front of their faces.

How are these people going to get their voices heard, when the people in power have their fingers in their ears?

Tell me how

briany wrote: »

How are these people going to get their voices heard, when the people in power have their fingers in their ears?

That's my point.

ambro25

Hurrache wrote: »

Brexit MPs are becoming a caricature of the scheming lying politician at this stage. Have they no awareness there's a world outside of them? They were caught by the short and curlies here.
https://twitter.com/MartinSelmayr/status/1092409534029746178

I see your post and this tweet, and am reminded of my post only a few days ago (previous Brexit thread, can't quote, #9323, copy-pasted, bold is new emphasis):

Water John wrote:

Juncker was attacked a number of times by Andrew Pierse Ass Ed The Sun on Sky Press Preview last night. Since Selmayr is now the driving force on the EU side will he be subjected to the same personal vitriol?

Considering that much of what Juncker has 'done' over the past couple of years, was actually Selmayr's doing in the shadows; that Selmayr is German (rather than Luxembourgish); and much less 'personable'' (in a facetious/self-deprecating sense) than Juncker...

...you can bet your bottom dollar, and take it to the bank, that the vitriol will be significantly worse.

I wasn't aware that he'd formally taken charge of Brexit for the Commission very recently. That is very bad news for the UK indeed. He's a master geopolitician, and won't bat an eyelid at letting the UK crash out. If the UK thought the EU, Barnier, Juncker (hand-puppeted by Selmayr) and Verhofstadt were bad...they're about to get a very rude awakening.

I see Selmayr is starting publicly, as he meant to carry on!

ancapailldorcha

Here's Ambro25's post below if anyone wants a direct link:

ambro25 wrote: »

Considering that much of what Juncker has 'done' over the past couple of years, was actually Selmayr's doing in the shadows; that Selmayr is German (rather than Luxembourgish); and much less 'personable'' (in a facetious/self-deprecating sense) than Juncker...

...you can bet your bottom dollar, and take it to the bank, that the vitriol will be significantly worse.

I wasn't aware that he'd formally taken charge of Brexit for the Commission very recently. That is very bad news for the UK indeed. He's a master geopolitician, and won't bat an eyelid at letting the UK crash out. If the UK thought the EU, Barnier, Juncker (hand-puppeted by Selmayr) and Verhofstadt were bad...they're about to get a very rude awakening.

Could you elaborate what you mean when you speak about Selmayr in this manner?

Harika

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Here's Ambro25's post below if anyone wants a direct link:

ambro25 wrote: »

Considering that much of what Juncker has 'done' over the past couple of years, was actually Selmayr's doing in the shadows; that Selmayr is German (rather than Luxembourgish); and much less 'personable'' (in a facetious/self-deprecating sense) than Juncker...

...you can bet your bottom dollar, and take it to the bank, that the vitriol will be significantly worse.

I wasn't aware that he'd formally taken charge of Brexit for the Commission very recently. That is very bad news for the UK indeed. He's a master geopolitician, and won't bat an eyelid at letting the UK crash out. If the UK thought the EU, Barnier, Juncker (hand-puppeted by Selmayr) and Verhofstadt were bad...they're about to get a very rude awakening.

Could you elaborate what you mean when you speak about Selmayr in this manner?

He thinks that he is the dark mastermind behind Barnier and Juncker. What would make sense, in the sense of possible. But why would he play with Verhofstadt?
Seems more one of the excuses from the UK why they are in the position they are right now.

Harika

briany wrote: »

I haven't seen a proper proposal on technological solutions. I've just seen assertions that they exist and some references to the Sweden/Norway border. Has the UK put a together any kind of presentation for the EU to show a workable tech border?

And even at that, there's only a bit less than two months left, so what would tech border advocates be saying? That they could get it ready in that time?

Experts, yeah what do they know, were asked and estimated a development time of at least three years, that is without implementing and ironing the difficulties out as such a system does not exist anywhere in the world. Five years to even implement it sounds very optimistic. Oh I forgot to say that no one knows how such a solution should work, who will pay, where it is developed and so on.

Harika

briany wrote: »

I haven't seen a proper proposal on technological solutions. I've just seen assertions that they exist and some references to the Sweden/Norway border. Has the UK put a together any kind of presentation for the EU to show a workable tech border?

And even at that, there's only a bit less than two months left, so what would tech border advocates be saying? That they could get it ready in that time?

Experts, yeah what do they know, were asked and estimated a development time of at least three years, that is without implementing and ironing the difficulties out as such a system does not exist anywhere in the world. Five years to even implement it sounds very optimistic. Oh I forgot to say that no one knows how such a solution should work, who will pay, where it is developed and so on.

ambro25

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Could you elaborate what you mean when you speak about Selmayr in this manner?

I'm not sure what you mean by 'speaking in this manner', but for the sake of clarity all the same: from reading political press over here and discussing politics every now and then with 'semi-insiders' (local biz types whom I bump into time-&-again at biz events, who are on a first-name basis with Luxembourgish politicians past & present, top-to-bottom...if you think Ireland is a small country where everyone knows everyone, try Luxembourg, which is fraction of the size of Dublin population-wise), he is one of canniest technocrats in the EU, always gets his way and, ideologically, an ardent federalist.

Barnier, Verhofstadt, Juncker: they are bridge-builders, and have a human side (eg "lovable rogue" for Juncker) to which most normally-adjusted people can relate. Selmayr isn't, and doesn't: he's clinical, methodical, and ruthless. There is a reason The Times have nicknamed him the 'Blackadder' of Brussels, and The Economist the 'Rasputin of Berlaymont'.

Everything the UK, 52% and 48% alike, didn't need then, and certainly needs still less now.

Folkstonian

ambro25 wrote: »

I'm not sure what you mean by 'speaking in this manner', but for the sake of clarity all the same: from reading political press over here and discussing politics every now and then with 'semi-insiders' (local biz types whom I bump into time-&-again at biz events, who are on a first-name basis with Luxembourgish politicians past & present, top-to-bottom...if you think Ireland is a small country where everyone knows everyone, try Luxembourg, which is fraction of the size of Dublin population-wise), he is one of canniest technocrats in the EU, always gets his way...and, ideologically, an ardent federalist.

Barnier, Verhofstadt, Juncker: they are bridge-builders, and have a human side (eg "lovable rogue" for Juncker) to which most normally-adjusted people can relate. Selmayr isn't, and doesn't: he's clinical, methodical, and ruthless.

Whatever about his personality - he’s not elected by the people, not accountable to the people, and not removable by the people. If he’s the true ‘puppet master’ behind the EU integrationist project, why aren’t MEPs and bureaucrats in Brussels not waving the red flags with all the vigour they can muster?

ancapailldorcha

ambro25 wrote: »

I'm not sure what you mean by 'speaking in this manner', but for the sake of clarity all the same: from reading political press over here and discussing politics every now and then with 'semi-insiders' (local biz types whom I bump into time-&-again at biz events, who are on a first-name basis with Luxembourgish politicians past & present, top-to-bottom...if you think Ireland is a small country where everyone knows everyone, try Luxembourg, which is fraction of the size of Dublin population-wise), he is one of canniest technocrats in the EU, always gets his way and, ideologically, an ardent federalist.

Barnier, Verhofstadt, Juncker: they are bridge-builders, and have a human side (eg "lovable rogue" for Juncker) to which most normally-adjusted people can relate. Selmayr isn't, and doesn't: he's clinical, methodical, and ruthless. There is a reason The Times have nicknamed him the 'Blackadder' of Brussels, and The Economist the 'Rasputin of Berlaymont'.

Everything the UK, 52% and 48% alike, didn't need then, and certainly needs still less now.

I wasn't disagreeing with your statements. I was just wondering what you were basing them on. All I know about Selmayr is that he was alleged to have leaked details of meetings between May and Juncker.

Harika

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I wasn't disagreeing with your statements. I was just wondering what you were basing them on. All I know about Selmayr is that he was alleged to have leaked details of meetings between May and Juncker.

Imo selmayr is brought forward to blame the evil Germans, creating a dolchstosslegende. Only source I could find is a UK newspaper who heard that he has taken over negotiations.
Although barnier wanted to be main candidate for the evp at the European elections.

ambro25

Folkstonian wrote: »

Whatever about his personality - he’s not elected by the people, not accountable to the people, and not removable by the people. If he’s the true ‘puppet master’ behind the EU integrationist project, why aren’t MEPs and bureaucrats in Brussels not waving the red flags with all the vigour they can muster?

Effectively, neither is Theresa May.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I wasn't disagreeing with your statements. I was just wondering what you were basing them on. All I know about Selmayr is that he was alleged to have leaked details of meetings between May and Juncker.

To Leavers, he's the most evil Eurocrat nobody ever heard of (for now, still).

Much already written about him in general and more specialised press, including in the UK (worth a Googling over the 2017-2018 period and yes, he probably did leak those details: short-terms opportunistic means to longer-term ends; would not surprise me at all).

I'm torn between his appeal to my overdevelopped yearning for still more Schadenfreude, and his strong capacity to foster still more animosity against the EU across the UK.

ancapailldorcha

Folkstonian wrote: »

Whatever about his personality - he’s not elected by the people, not accountable to the people, and not removable by the people. If he’s the true ‘puppet master’ behind the EU integrationist project, why aren’t MEPs and bureaucrats in Brussels not waving the red flags with all the vigour they can muster?

I've never been able to take this argument seriously in the UK given that it's in many ways less democratic than the EU with its unelected monarch, unrepresentative voting system and wholly unelected upper chamber. Among others:

tuxy

I wasn't paying attention to UK politics back in 2011 when they had the referendum to change from first past the post to alternative vote.
People voted against change 67%!
What was the thinking of the electorate at that stage? Was it just Tory and Labour voters not liking the idea of other parties gaining ground?

trellheim

Much already written about him in general and more specialised press, including in the UK (worth a Googling over the 2017-2018 period and yes, he probably did leak those details: short-terms opportunistic means to longer-term ends; would not surprise me at all).

I'm torn between his appeal to my overdevelopped yearning for still my Schadenfreude, and his strong capacity to foster still more animosity against the EU across the UK.

Much as I want to disagree I think the UK will find it hard to believe that Barnier is the nice face and that people like Sabine Weyand and Martin Selmayr are of tougher steel.


HOWEVER... I think we are starting to see public opinion in the UK do something,,, which is starting to unite as the clock is running down... now unite for what is the question

ancapailldorcha

tuxy wrote: »

I wasn't paying attention to UK politics back in 2011 when they had the referendum to change from first past the post to alternative vote.
People voted against change 67%!
What was the thinking of the electorate at that stage? Was it just Tory and Labour voters not liking the idea of other parties gaining ground?

Both main parties were against it and all that that entails with newspapers, unions and the like. It was misrepresented by the No side that an MP who didn't get the most votes could win a seat. Ironically, it demonstrates what happens when a nebulous and complex issue is delegated to the people instead of having debates in the Commons.

Winning the referendum was supposed to shore up the Lib Dems vote. Unfortunately, they didn't think it through and only them and the Pirate Party supported it.

Folkstonian

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I've never been able to take this argument seriously in the UK given that it's in many ways less democratic than the EU with its unelected monarch, unrepresentative voting system and wholly unelected upper chamber. Among others:

You are deflecting from the point I made. If this man, an unelected and unaccountable civil servant, is truly as influential in Brussels’ corridors of power as Ambro perceives him to be, would you not be concerned?

When the head of the civil service is no longer just advising Theresa May but actively directing her in certain areas of policy, I’d accept that you had a point.

robinph

tuxy wrote: »

I wasn't paying attention to UK politics back in 2011 when they had the referendum to change from first past the post to alternative vote.
People voted against change 67%!
What was the thinking of the electorate at that stage? Was it just Tory and Labour voters not liking the idea of other parties gaining ground?

The two main parties said it was a bad idea and the Lib Dems didn't have the clout to be able to get enough people to vote for their idea. Considering the size of the LibDems though, to have got 33% of the vote was pretty good going. Most people didn't understand it though and change is generally considered bad... unless it's to make a change such as getting out of the EU.

ancapailldorcha

Folkstonian wrote: »

You are deflecting from the point I made. If this man, an unelected and unaccountable civil servant, is truly as influential in Brussels’ corridors of power as Ambro perceives him to be, would you not be concerned?

When the head of the civil service is no longer just advising Theresa May but actively directing her in certain areas of policy, I’d accept that you had a point.

I'm not deflecting from anything. Brexiteers don't give a sniff about democracy and certainly not about accountability as the red bus and Turkey examples show clearly.

And yes. If Selmayr is truly scheming in this manner then that most certainly is cause for concern. The issue is that British Eurosceptics have proven themselves time and time again to be so wholly untrustworthy (the charter prevents me from using a more honest term) that there's no voice that's either well informed enough or respectable enough to raise the issue and be taken seriously.

Seth Brundle

Folkstonian wrote: »

You are deflecting from the point I made. If this man, an unelected and unaccountable civil servant, is truly as influential in Brussels’ corridors of power as Ambro perceives him to be, would you not be concerned?

In what way is Barnier "influential in Brussels’ corridors of power" that a national civil servant is not?
In what way is Barnier not accountable?
Whether it is in Westminster or the Dáil there are unelected civil servants whose job it is to perform certain tasks.

In my last job I was involved on a project where I helped shape national policy in a certain area.
And I worked for a private company!

Folkstonian wrote: »

When the head of the civil service is no longer just advising Theresa May but actively directing her in certain areas of policy, I’d accept that you had a point.

So your assumption that May knows everything then? Is that why she doesn't need advice from anyone?
Also your assumption is that Barnier is directing policy. What policy has he directed? My understanding is that he has a brief and is following that.

Imreoir2

ambro25 wrote: »

I'm not sure what you mean by 'speaking in this manner', but for the sake of clarity all the same: from reading political press over here and discussing politics every now and then with 'semi-insiders' (local biz types whom I bump into time-&-again at biz events, who are on a first-name basis with Luxembourgish politicians past & present, top-to-bottom...if you think Ireland is a small country where everyone knows everyone, try Luxembourg, which is fraction of the size of Dublin population-wise), he is one of canniest technocrats in the EU, always gets his way and, ideologically, an ardent federalist.

Barnier, Verhofstadt, Juncker: they are bridge-builders, and have a human side (eg "lovable rogue" for Juncker) to which most normally-adjusted people can relate. Selmayr isn't, and doesn't: he's clinical, methodical, and ruthless. There is a reason The Times have nicknamed him the 'Blackadder' of Brussels, and The Economist the 'Rasputin of Berlaymont'.

Everything the UK, 52% and 48% alike, didn't need then, and certainly needs still less now.

Sounds like the guy we need for dealing with the UK in a no-deal scenario, if you ask me.

Hurrache

The whole Selmyar conspiracy here is getting a bit wild.

jm08

trellheim wrote: »

Much as I want to disagree I think the UK will find it hard to believe that Barnier is the nice face and that people like Sabine Weyand and Martin Selmayr are of tougher steel.

HOWEVER... I think we are starting to see public opinion in the UK do something,,, which is starting to unite as the clock is running down... now unite for what is the question

Barnier's job is complete (negotiating the withdrawal agreement according to some of the press reports today). Selmayr (Commission) now takes over the next phase of the negotiations and that is why he met that British delegation today.


Obviously, he doesn't take any prisoners - and his tweet today was a timely intervention which will hopefully help to focus minds in the HoC. I read a profile of him when he was appointed which said that he has enough of an interest in Irish history to have ''one metre of books on Irish history on his bookshelves.'' He will have learned a lot about British negotiating tactics from that study!

Imreoir2

jm08 wrote: »

Barnier's job is complete (negotiating the withdrawal agreement according to some of the press reports today). Selmayr (Commission) now takes over the next phase of the negotiations and that is why he met that British delegation today.


Obviously, he doesn't take any prisoners - and his tweet today was a timely intervention which will hopefully help to focus minds in the HoC. I read a profile of him when he was appointed which said that he has enough of an interest in Irish history to have ''one metre of books on Irish history on his bookshelves.'' He will have learned a lot about British negotiating tactics from that study!

I wonder if we are getting close to threats of immediate and terrible war from the UK? The PM has ramped up the rethoric lately, talking about battleing for Britain.

VinLieger

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I wonder if we are getting close to threats of immediate and terrible war from the UK? The PM has ramped up the rethoric lately, talking about battleing for Britain.

This is just ridiculous