Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Topgear on Dave

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I wonder if we are getting close to threats of immediate and terrible war from the UK? The PM has ramped up the rethoric lately, talking about battleing for Britain.

A hundred years ago, or if we were a poor middle Eastern or African state now... Yes, without a doubt.

A reason would be found to justify it.

An Ciarraioch

David Trimble is to take a court case on the grounds that the backstop breaches the GFA:

http://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1092452909227409408

Harika

VinLieger wrote: »

This is just ridiculous

Read the book "The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914" from Christopher Clark. There is undoubtedly a polarization of Europe taking place, as back then. Everyone atm has a chance to stop the escalation that is taking place, no one is acting on it.

MrMusician18

Far far too much fuss is being made about the personalities at the center of this, and this idea of evil scheming machiavellian Selmayr is the epitome of it. He may well be a prick, but it doesn't matter.

Most people in positions of real power would go through you for a shortcut, something which is generally a truism in both the public and private spheres.

The personalities don't matter, it's the politics.

Winters

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

David Trimble is to take a court case on the grounds that the backstop breaches the GFA:

http://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1092452909227409408

And maybe it does as it changes the status but while he is there maybe they could rule that Brexit in itself breaches the GFA too.

Sam Russell

I think when you have Raab admitting that he never read the GFA, and 'dipped into it', it would suggest he did not know it contained only 35 pages. If he found 35 pages to be above his reading age, then it is likely he never read the Withdrawal Agreement - all 585 pages of it.

I think that Civil Servants (or unelected Brussels Bureaucrats - as the UK press calls them) do the heavy lifting for politicians and the interpreting all the long and the hard words for their less well educated masters. Decisions are made by the politicians - not the CS.

Unelected, in the UK, refers to the House of Lords, and their Sovereign. No political position in the EU is filled by a person who has not held elective office (with the exception of some EU Commissioners).

I think the FPTP voting system was kept because STV is too complicated - the voter has to put the candidates in the order of their preference. The 'Alternative Vote' restricts that to first or second choice, but even that is too complicated.

VinLieger

Harika wrote: »

Read the book "The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914" from Christopher Clark. There is undoubtedly a polarization of Europe taking place, as back then. Everyone atm has a chance to stop the escalation that is taking place, no one is acting on it.

I'm well aware of the history and path to WW1 but implying the UK are going to go to war with the whole of europe over brexit and the backstop is ridiculous.

Calina

Folkstonian wrote: »

When the head of the civil service is no longer just advising Theresa May but actively directing her in certain areas of policy, I’d accept that you had a point.

What is your view on Nick Timothy and other SPADs in the UK system?

Akrasia

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

David Trimble is to take a court case on the grounds that the backstop breaches the GFA:

http://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1092452909227409408

So what does he want then? A No Deal crash out or a 2nd referendum?

The backstop is specifically there to protect the Good Friday agreement. Everything else would breach the GFA

Everything that is remotely on the table contravenes the GFA except cancelling Article 50.

murphaph

If Trimble proved his case (and assuming a hard border would be just as much a breach of the GFA) wouldn't it essentially declare Brexit illegal?

briany

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I wonder if we are getting close to threats of immediate and terrible war from the UK? The PM has ramped up the rethoric lately, talking about battleing for Britain.

I can't say, in today's politics, that this would never happen, but I would have to assume it's pretty unlikely.

But it's funny you mention it, because I was wondering to myself what would happen in such a scenario. If everything went mad, and the UK did invade the Republic, would the EU launch a counter-offensive? Or, more accurately, a joint force of, say German and French soldiers since there is not yet an EU army? Or would the powers that be simply wag their fingers and issue words of 'strong condemnation', such as what happened when Russia annexed part of the Ukraine? Part of the EU proper being attacked on a militaristic level is unknown territory AFAIK, so it's an interesting scenario to mentally wargame.

woohoo!!!

murphaph wrote: »

If Trimble proved his case (and assuming a hard border would be just as much a breach of the GFA) wouldn't it essentially declare Brexit illegal?

Unionists not thinking things through wouldn't be a first. But at least Trimble was there and signed up in 98.

briany

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Unionists not thinking things through wouldn't be a first. But at least Trimble was there and signed up in 98.

Brexit and the GFA are incompatible. It's about as simple as that. Even the backstop isn't really compatible if it were to impede trade or movement of people between NI and Great Britain to any greater extent than currently exists.

Imreoir2

briany wrote: »

I can't say, in today's politics, that this would never happen, but I would have to assume it's pretty unlikely.

But it's funny you mention it, because I was wondering to myself what would happen in such a scenario. If everything went mad, and the UK did invade the Republic, would the EU launch a counter-offensive? Or, more accurately, a joint force of, say German and French soldiers since their is not yet an EU army? Or would the powers that be simply wag their fingers and issue words of 'strong condemnation', such as what happened when Russia annexed part of the Ukraine? Part of the EU proper being attacked on a militaristic level is unknown territory AFAIK, so it's an interesting scenario to mentally wargame.

Strong finger wagging, economic scantions, and continuing war of resistance in Ireland and presumably escalating threats of retaliation/support for the Irish government in exile. It's tricky because it would pit NATO members against one another. One assumes that the potential consequences would be so dire, up to and including stricks against London, that no British government would ever consider it.

Franz Von Peppercorn

its possible that both the hard backstop and Brexit are violations of the GFA

eire4

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A Unionist/Conservative expresses disillusionment with the Irish rugby team due to Brexit - there would surely have been worse occasions in the Seventies/Eighties, but is this common among Ulster Protestants?

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/owen-polley-i-always-supported-ireland-in-rugby-but-less-so-now-due-to-the-anti-british-mood-over-brexit-1-8793083

If there is a no deal the pain economically that they will suffer will be very serious and most likely will soften and or overcome any present ill will against Ireland being stoked up in London.

MrMusician18

Akrasia wrote: »

So what does he want then? A No Deal crash out or a 2nd referendum?

The backstop is specifically there to protect the Good Friday agreement. Everything else would breach the GFA

Everything that is remotely on the table contravenes the GFA except cancelling Article 50.

The strategy may be too essentially get Brexit effectively declared illegal. With one eye on the changing demographics, some unionists might feel that the only way to preserve the Union is not to latch on to the UK but to make unification extremely economically undesirable for Ireland, with brexit a poison pill.

If Brexit was abandoned because it was declared illegal and in contravention of the GFA then there would be absolutely no incentive whatsoever for the Irish government to push/stir for a border poll. Passing a border poll would facilitate Brexit leading to trade barriers erected between us and Britain. It would be very hard to see such a poll passing in Ireland in such an atmosphere.

I doubt there is anything as deep as this behind his strategy however just more of Ulster says No.

Imreoir2

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The strategy may be too essentially get Brexit effectively declared illegal. With one eye on the changing demographics, some unionists might feel that the only way to preserve the Union is not to latch on to the UK but to make unification extremely economically undesirable for Ireland, with brexit a poison pill.

If Brexit was abandoned because it was declared illegal and in contravention of the GFA then there would be absolutely no incentive whatsoever for the Irish government to push/stir for a border poll. Passing a border poll would facilitate Brexit leading to trade barriers erected between us and Britain. It would be very hard to see such a poll passing in Ireland in such an atmosphere.

I doubt there is anything as deep as this behind his strategy however just more of Ulster says No.

Trimble is pro-Brexit. This is nothing more than a publicity stunt to allow Brexiteer talking heads to counter the backstop by saying it would infact breach the GFA, "there's a court case don't you know".

briany

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Strong finger wagging, economic scantions, and continuing war of resistance in Ireland and presumably escalating threats of retaliation/support for the Irish government in exile. It's tricky because it would pit NATO members against one another. One assumes that the potential consequences would be so dire, up to and including stricks against London, that no British government would ever consider it.

I'd hope there would be dire consequences, but then I also think that the news cycle moves so fast these days, and people get bored of things easily, and people can vent much of their anger into an online space with no real material outcome, that I do still wonder.

CelticRambler

MrMusician18 wrote: »

If Brexit was abandoned because it was declared illegal and in contravention of the GFA then there would be absolutely no incentive whatsoever for the Irish government to push/stir for a border poll. Passing a border poll would facilitate Brexit leading to trade barriers erected between us and Britain. It would be very hard to see such a poll passing in Ireland in such an atmosphere.

I wonder if it's more for protection against a push by the British government for such a poll? We all know that there's no appetite for immediate reunification amongst either FG or FF, but as the UK/England becomes increasingly divided against itself, it's only a question of time until someone raises the cost-benefit equation of keeping NI in the Kingdom, and that definitely does not resolve in NI's favour.

I've also been wondering if any English-born, English-resident of English parentage could mount a challenge to Brexit & the GFA on the grounds that they are discriminated against, because the GFA grants some UK citizens automatic entitlement to EU rights and priviliges through Irish citizenship, but not others. Are there any other rights in the UK conferred on a subject of the Crown solely on the basis of their place of birth and residence?

Imreoir2

briany wrote: »

I'd hope there would be dire consequences, but then I also think that the news cycle moves so fast these days, and people get bored of things easily, and people can vent much of their anger into an online space with no real material outcome, that I do still wonder.

There is no way in which a Western European state can invade a neighbour and not suffer deep and lasting consequences.

Bigus

Imreoir2 wrote: »

There is no way in which a Western European state can invade a neighbour and not suffer deep and lasting consequences.

There's a few irish Americans might have something to say about it too.

briany

Anyone going to sign the petition to invite Ireland to rejoin the UK, thus solving the border impasse that way?

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/235821

Apparently, if it gets to 10,000, it must be debated in the HoC.

branie2

No way am I signing that! Michael Collins would turn in his grave if he heard about it

RobMc59

Imreoir2 wrote: »

There is no way in which a Western European state can invade a neighbour and not suffer deep and lasting consequences.

Have I missed something?-has the UK threatened to attack someone?

briany

branie2 wrote: »

No way am I signing that! Michael Collins would turn in his grave if he heard about it

I like to think Micheal Collins would get a chuckle out of the HoC having to seriously debate the idea.

briany

RobMc59 wrote: »

Have I missed something?-has the UK threatened to attack someone?

No, another poster was just noting that British rhetoric is getting so fraught that you start to wonder how long before they're threatening some sort of show of force.

Folkstonian

briany wrote: »

Anyone going to sign the petition to invite Ireland to rejoin the UK, thus solving the border impasse that way?

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/235821

Apparently, if it gets to 10,000, it must be debated in the HoC.

100,000 signatures is the point at which commons staff must look at it and decide whether it’s worthy of parliamentary debate, which this one obviously isn’t.

I seem to remember lots of these petitions for various public holidays like ‘Star Wars day’ that broke that barrier but obviously never were put forward for debate

Enzokk

murphaph wrote: »

If Trimble proved his case (and assuming a hard border would be just as much a breach of the GFA) wouldn't it essentially declare Brexit illegal?

I don't know how you prove anything with the GFA, it is not a black and white document as posters here has proven. If you say that the GFA needs an open border the question is where does it say it. So I wonder where does it say that the backstop would be a breach?

It would be very funny if the court does find that Brexit is in breach of the agreement though, it would be the quickest way for the DUP to find out how British they are in the eyes of the leavers in the Tory party.

briany wrote: »

Anyone going to sign the petition to invite Ireland to rejoin the UK, thus solving the border impasse that way?

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/235821

Apparently, if it gets to 10,000, it must be debated in the HoC.

Even if it gets 100 000 signatures it doesn't automatically get debated. There would be a committee that decides if it will be debated, but seeing that the opposition and backbench MPs cannot get their bills debated or time given the chance of one of those getting anything is really low. It is more a publicity stunt, look at how democratic we are.

Sam Russell

briany wrote: »

No, another poster was just noting that British rhetoric is getting so fraught that you start to wonder how long before they're threatening some sort of show of force.

Michael Howered mentioned goig to war over Gibraltar.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/britain-and-eu-worse-off-without-brexit-deal-says-michael-fallon

So not out of the Brexiteer thought processes.