Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Casual reminder about the Brexit Forum request.

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057953333/1

51 likes so far and lots of ++, but we can do better. Support it.

First Up

Deleted User wrote:

51 likes so far and lots of ++, but we can do better. Support it.

No better than this one I'm afraid. The debate isn't about Leave or Remain. That's a done deal.

People would be better employed looking at how we reduce/by-pass dependence on the UK and make the most of our EU membership. Let the UK paddle its own leaking canoe.

This thread has descended into bickering about life in N.I. That may be important for some but it has little to do with the post Brexit world, other than figuring out how to keep our ports working smoothly (which is close to being done by the way.)

Calina

downcow wrote: »

Lol. My grada was a prod and I have a prody name so I couldn’t be sectarian.

You couldn’t make it up lol

What makes you think only your experience counts?

Yet another multi-billionaire British Brexiteer has followed James Dyson and announced he is leaving Britain. Have a google for this latest guy's "Britain will thrive outside the EU" interviews, and compare it with his actions. When will the penny drop for the tabloid-reading plebs?

UK's richest man quits country to save billions (17 February 2019)

Britain’s richest man, Sir Jim Ratcliffe, who was knighted less than a year ago for his services to business and investment, has been planning to avoid up to £4bn in tax after switching his home and his fortune to Monaco.

The Sunday Times can disclose that the prominent Brexiteer, who built up the chemicals giant Ineos, has been working with the accountant PwC on the tax avoidance plan. This would see him and senior executives Andy Currie and John Reece legally share between £1bn and £10bn tax-free, depriving the Treasury of between £400m and £4bn...

Fionn1952

downcow wrote: »

Fionn1952 wrote: »

I'm not racist, I have lots of black friends?

While I may personally have Nationalist beliefs, as I come from half a Unionist background (as I've mentioned before, my very planter surname is on the Ulster covenant).

Lol. My grada was a prod and I have a prody name so I couldn’t be sectarian.

You couldn’t make it up lol

Yup, just deflect and ignore the substance of the post.

You don't have a monopoly on experience and understanding of people from the North.

Most sectarianism is completely built on a total lack of understanding and exposure to 'themmuns', so yes, growing up with Protestant family who you care for very much removed the bogeyman, 'themmuns' mentality pretty damn well.

This deep exposure is a LITTLE big different to having a conversation with someone from a different background once or twice. It takes a pretty spectacular level of cognitive dissonance to claim to hate those you have known and loved your whole life.

I'm perfectly capable of disagreeing about where I think the future of our home should lie without hate. The way you speak of Nationalists, I'm not so sure you can say the same.

Your stubborn refusal to even countenance that there are other, less entrenched, more 'fairweather' unionists than you belies your own mentality.

Simply put, whether you're of the, 'never, never, never' persuasion yourself when it comes to a United Ireland versus staying part of the United Kingdom, there are huge numbers from both sides who aren't so deeply entrenched. As just one example, there is a significant cohort of the electorate who didn't see the Troubles at all, they weren't born pre-GFA. Do you think its REALLY so unlikely that some of these people may be currently of a Unionist standing, because they believe that right now, remaining part of the UK is in their best interests, but dont hold the same willingness to sacrifice very much at all for this union? That those people will ask themselves, 'what's in it for me' when faced with any question about the future of NI?

Jesus, no one is saying you have to agree with that position, but surely you couldnt honestly believe it's so rare to be practically non-existent as you previously implied?!

Peregrinus

Folkstonian wrote: »

Is that not what the option of a unification referendum is all about?

Personally I don’t mind either way what people in Northern Ireland choose to do with regard to their future in or out of the U.K., but carving the state up down the middle with different tariffs, regulations and standards doesn’t sit particularly well with me.

A vast majority of businesses’ biggest market is the domestic market. Presumably putting up barriers between NI and GB, or Scotland and England, or simply any two given regions of the U.K. will impact small and medium size businesses very negatively.

You'd think, wouldn't you? But actually more than half of NI-GB trade goes via the port of Dublin and, therefore, crosses the border. Which has the ironic result that controls on the RoI/NI border will have a greater adverse affect on NI/GB trade than controls at the NI ports would do. Which no doubt is part of the reason why the backstop is popular with the relevant stakeholder bodies in NI.

Folkstonian wrote: »

There’s an escape route from ‘Brexit britain’ sat on the table for NI and Scotland in the form of referenda. Anything else makes an already complex issue even more confusing and creates too many frictions

Westminster opposes a referendum in Scotland, and has set its face firmly against any Danish-model Brexit in which part of the UK remains in the EU while part leaves.

Peregrinus

RobMc59 wrote: »

Strange that you live there but seem to go out of your way to slag the place off-I've got no agenda-if I say I like it and think it comparable with Ireland obviously that's just my opinion.
I know salaries are higher in Ireland but the cost of living is also higher which evens things up-will you admit that the cost of living is higher in Ireland?

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Mod note:

Statistically backed arguments about the economy on different sides of the border meets the charter. People have said they have opinions about places and thats fine. But repeating those opinions without adding anything to back it up breaches the charter

Well, there's the TripAdvisor Index of Economic Vibrancy:

"Take Kilkenny and Armagh, a similar-sized Northern town with city status. TripAdvisor has reviews of 176 restaurants in Kilkenny but of just 43 in Armagh."

There was a very informative interview on RTÉ's Morning Ireland last week with a former Australian trade negotiator named Dmitry Grozoubinski about how a no-deal Brexit would operate within WTO rules in practice. He has a lot of insightful articles available online about this aspect of Brexit. Another wake-up call for the Brexiteers.


Dmitry Grozoubinski discusses Brexit & WTO rules

Leroy42

I asked this a while back but non of those supporting Brexit gave an answer so I'll reach out again.

Given the constant flow of negative news stories around Brexit, from failing shipping contracts, loss of immigrant nurses and doctors, large increase in hate crimes, slowing down of the economy, drop off in business investment, Lord Dyson pulling out, RBS shifting Bns in assets to EU etc etc etc

And coupled with the fact that there has not been 1 story showing the benefits of the decision with the best being that things will stay the same, my question is whether there is anything that can shift Beexiteers position?

Not even forever, but given many seem to think that TM is a remainer and the civil service is hell bent on twarting Brexit, wouldn't it make sense to cancel it until the UK is ready?

Downcow, I think it was, mentioned pride getting in the way, but from on IMO the only reason to continue with Brexit as it currently stands is out of stubbornness and not wanting to back down.

Peregrinus

Nothing will change the minds of at least a large chunk of Brexiters. They have a compulsive need for victim status; therefore nothing which is offered to them - whether by their political opponents, or just by life - can ever be good enough. Whatever happens, they will alway feel cheated by it, because they need to feel cheated.

woohoo!!!

There's nothing more to be gained by continued negotiations. The UK does not know what it wants bar unicorn land of EU benefits without EU rules. No more pretend talks until they sign up. If they want to implode their country, that's on them. The likes of the ERG being pandered to would seriously undermine the EU. Brexiteers will blame Ireland and the EU regardless and while a large section of the British public swallow this crap, then screw em.

jochenstacker

Peregrinus wrote: »

Nothing will change the minds of at least a large chunk of Brexiters. They have a compulsive need for victim status; therefore nothing which is offered to them - whether by their political opponents, or just by life - can ever be good enough. Whatever happens, they will alway feel cheated by it, because they need to feel cheated.

When it comes to negations, there has to come a point where you have to acknowledge that you have enough people on your side and the rest are cranks who will never give in.
The same goes for the North. When it comes to a UI, it is obvious that some people will never accept it, no matter what.
You can't appease these people, you can't reason with them and you certainly will never sway them.
So you just have to gather majority support from both sides, work out a deal with them and let the extremists jump and shout.
Trying to get everyone's consensus is impossible, so don't even try.
I am quite confident that Scotland will leave the UK and there will be a UI.
And they will find out that 90% of their troubles originated in England and never look back
England could be the European NK soon enough if they let the hardliners rule the roost.

downcow

jochenstacker wrote: »

When it comes to negations, there has to come a point where you have to acknowledge that you have enough people on your side and the rest are cranks who will never give in.
The same goes for the North. When it comes to a UI, it is obvious that some people will never accept it, no matter what.
You can't appease these people, you can't reason with them and you certainly will never sway them.
So you just have to gather majority support from both sides, work out a deal with them and let the extremists jump and shout.
Trying to get everyone's consensus is impossible, so don't even try.

Can’t disagree with any of that my friend.
That’s exactly what the UK have done ie sought the view of the people and went with the majority.
And it’s why I supported the gfa You just need to get a majority for a UI and it’s yours.
Simple

FrancieBrady

Peregrinus wrote: »

Nothing will change the minds of at least a large chunk of Brexiters. They have a compulsive need for victim status; therefore nothing which is offered to them - whether by their political opponents, or just by life - can ever be good enough. Whatever happens, they will alway feel cheated by it, because they need to feel cheated.

The Anglo Irish Agreement and the GFA should teach us a lot about things like this. Yes, a large chunk Brexiteers will never publicly 'change their minds' but privately accept that they were wrong.
That is why the AIA and the GFA worked for as long as they have, a large chunk of the naysayers, while not publicly accepting of them, did just that in practice and got on with it.

I guarantee that if a border was in the Irish sea, that the same would happen after a bit of bristling and localised reaction.
I think the climbdown is actually under way in the DUP, Arlene is trying to paint herself as the 'moderate and patient one'.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0216/1031013-foster-stormont-sinn-fein/

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

I feel the attitude of remainers, Eu and in particular roi is driving me emotionally into a hard brexit camp. ... I’ve watched as the Eu encouraged by roi has manipulated and used the gfa and tried to play on people’s trauma of losing over 3000 neighbours to try and coerce people to move.

I think that goes to the heart of Leroy42's question: the GFA is something that has to be worked around. In her Lancaster House speech, Theresa May made two inherently contradictory promises that everyone knew from that minute onwards would cause huge problems (everyone except the Brexiteers, apparently).

What we don't understand is how someone such as yourself can interpret Theresa May's incompetence as bullying by the RoI/EU, and move from a position of "don't know/no preference" to hard Brexit when all the evidence shows that Brexit will be bad for Britain and really bad for NI. And all this over a backstop that insulates both communities in NI from the worst effects of Brexit, one that can be cancelled as soon as the Brexiteers come up with the type of alternative arrangement that they say would be so easy.

Isn't that the very definition of cutting off your nose to spite your face?

woohoo!!!

jochenstacker wrote: »

Peregrinus wrote: »

Nothing will change the minds of at least a large chunk of Brexiters. They have a compulsive need for victim status; therefore nothing which is offered to them - whether by their political opponents, or just by life - can ever be good enough. Whatever happens, they will alway feel cheated by it, because they need to feel cheated.

When it comes to negations, there has to come a point where you have to acknowledge that you have enough people on your side and the rest are cranks who will never give in.
The same goes for the North. When it comes to a UI, it is obvious that some people will never accept it, no matter what.
You can't appease these people, you can't reason with them and you certainly will never sway them.
So you just have to gather majority support from both sides, work out a deal with them and let the extremists jump and shout.
Trying to get everyone's consensus is impossible, so don't even try.
I am quite confident that Scotland will leave the UK and there will be a UI.
And they will find out that 90% of their troubles originated in England and never look back
England could be the European NK soon enough if they let the hardliners rule the roost.

The EU have already priced in a no deal and have long since concluded that the UK, as a soon to be third country, are not worth it. Obviously the implications are going to be felt heavily here and still the overwhelming response is, UK not worth it.

The UK, through indecision, is likely to crash out. The longer the UK does not come to an agreement, with Ireland up front and centre, the more likely companies will leave the smaller market for the bigger market.

It is concerning that we could have a rogue state on our door step but that's where good and careful diplomacy comes in.

Calina

downcow wrote: »

Yeah I get what you are saying and there is lots of logic to it.
I am self aware enough to know that my hardening of position is not because I think brexit will be wonderful. I like many am human. I feel the attitude of remainers, Eu and in particular roi is driving me emotionally into a hard brexit camp.
As say again I was fairly neutral initially. But I firstly had to listen to the remainers telling everyone who voted leave that they were somehow less intelligent and easily hoodwinked. I’ve watched as the Eu encouraged by roi has manipulated and used the gfa and tried to play on people’s trauma of losing over 3000 neighbours to try and coerce people to move. We have seen it here before with UI - the more people are bullied, coerced, threatened and worse the more the will resist.
So I am owning up to still being fairly neutral in my head but became a strong brexiteer in my heart.

What I believe could be transformative is if ireland would allow the Eu to sort this out as two friends. One of who wants to move out of their shared flat but will be living around the corner and wants to continue being a friend and cooperating for each other’s betterment.
You might find the solution would not be 100 miles away from the wa but currently I would choose no deal over giving in - and that may be a childish human response but I hear it all around me. Not help by tusk and the likes.

It is an extremely childish response but your entire post demonstrates that.

All of the bullying is being done on the UK side. You are not emotionally capable of recognizing this. In this way, you are not a friend. You do not care what happens to us. Nor do you learn from patiently constructed informative posts, probably because you do not want to. That is also highly immature.

What would be transformative is if the UK gave up some of its more destructive redlines because this is in the UK’s national interest. The EU doesn’t even come into that debate.

And your projections of EU behaviour are obnoxious and simply wrong. There is no way anyone who was ever neutral would think that way.

Have you see the Express’s front page? It is talking about the possible need for food aid. Do you honestly think debate in the UK is even remotely mature right now? Talking about food aid?

ancapailldorcha

Mod: A few posts have been deleted and a few bans have been handed out. No more personal stuff please.

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Mod: A few posts have been deleted and a few bans have been handed out. No more personal stuff please.

May I ask what the posts were responding to? I had to sit on my hands to avoid a ban.

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

May I ask what the posts were responding to? I had to sit on my hands to avoid a ban.

The thread has been somewhat derailed into discussion about one specific poster and a few uncivil, personal comments were made. They have been deleted.

Hope this helps.

BobbyBobberson

RobMc59 wrote: »

Strange that you live there but seem to go out of your way to slag the place off-I've got no agenda-if I say I like it and think it comparable with Ireland obviously that's just my opinion.
I know salaries are higher in Ireland but the cost of living is also higher which evens things up-will you admit that the cost of living is higher in Ireland?

This is the last time I address this because as someone else has pointed out the thread has descended into the living standards of the north.

I have not gone of out my way to slag the place of, so you are incorrect there. I have simply pointed out that all the economic indicators show Northern Ireland is in a worse off position than ROI. Wages are higher in ROI than NI, costs of living are higher in ROI than NI and guess what.......disposable income is also higher in ROI than NI. I am done addressing you now.

For everyone else, one of the outstanding themes of Brexit is the absolute rejection of facts. It is absolutely bizarre that when people are presented with facts and data that they are rejected out of hand. Honestly, where does this stop?

BobbyBobberson

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Can we please move on from talking about northern Ireland, unification poll is theoretical at this time, yet in 40 days UK will go over the cliff. Events are already accelerating as we approach this singularly.


Can all this nonsense about NI (and a certain heifer) be moved into a reunification thread or something.

Agree (and I am aware I am part of it). Really makes the case for a full Brexit forum!

Anyway, I am watching Andrew Marr and having a cup of tea!

FrancieBrady

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Can we please move on from talking about northern Ireland, unification poll is theoretical at this time, yet in 40 days UK will go over the cliff. Events are already accelerating as we approach this singularly.


Can all this nonsense about NI (and a certain heifer) be moved into a reunification thread or something.

I am not sure how you can divorce 'talk of northern Ireland' from an Irish forum discussing the effects of Brexit. I am not overly concerned how Brexit will affect Finchley tbh.

BobbyBobberson

Interesting read.

https://twitter.com/Mr_Considerate/status/1096894695903510528

CelticRambler

They're not trade deals; they're agreements to continue to trade on the same terms as before, once the UK has left the EU. That's essentially all that they can do - the EU won't object to them copy-and-pasting existing arrangements (like that huge body of EU law that's being C&P'd onto the English statute books) because - believe it or not - the EU are not bullies, and it makes sense for the UK's exit to be as smooth as possible.

The fun and games will start later when one or other of these trading partners decides that they want to change the terms. Chances are it'll be the UK that wants to change, as almost everyone else will be quite happy with the EU package.

Enzokk

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Getting back to Brexit why is the UK negotiating trade deals at this time? I thought as member of EU they are not allowed? Are they openly violating what agreements they signed up to.

Well you could say that they are not having trade deal negotiations, but are having talks about existing trade deals the UK enjoys as members of the EU. They are not negotiating anything new now but hoping to keep the deal the same.

As for other news, another ex-employee of Cambridge Analytica is being questioned by Robert Mueller and his investigations. This time it is Brittany Kaiser who sat with Aron Banks when Leave.eu was launched. And yet the silence from the UK on any sort of investigation or even charges is quiet on this. Remarkable.

Mueller questions Cambridge Analytica director Brittany Kaiser

A director of the controversial data company Cambridge Analytica, who appeared with Arron Banks at the launch of the Leave.EU campaign, has been subpoenaed by the US investigation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russian government.

A spokesman for Brittany Kaiser, former business development director for Cambridge Analytica – which collapsed after the Observer revealed details of its misuse of Facebook data – confirmed that she had been subpoenaed by special counsel Robert Mueller, and was cooperating fully with his investigation.

He added that she was assisting other US congressional and legal investigations into the company’s activities and had voluntarily turned over documents and data.

BobbyBobberson

Other half's bus from Belfast to Dublin stopped at the border today to check passports. Imagine that for all goods and people, jesus.

FrancieBrady

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I am concerned how Brexit will affect business and normal people here in Ireland, for example my own dozen year old small company has to bring back from continent large amounts of heavy equipment near end of March start of April, will this get delayed or stuck in UK?

I couldn't give a toss about NI they were offered a remarkable opportunity to make best of both worlds and their representatives rejected it, while the other representatives couldn't be bothered representing their voters.
NI is a basketcase deserving its own thread

I get that you may be bored/angered/nonplussed about northern Ireland and it's people, but one of the tragedies and cyclical absurdities of it's partitioning from the rest of Ireland is that it very much affects the south as it's politics is doomed to fail and fail again.

Brexit has the potential to affect us in the south very badly indeed and unification may be the only way to mitigate some of those effects. It needs to be discussed therefore as a solution. And it is being discussed. It has to be central to any discussion of Brexit in an Irish island context.

Panrich

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Other half's bus from Belfast to Dublin stopped at the border today to check passports. Imagine that for all goods and people, jesus.

Do you have to bring your passport if you’re traveling across the border? I never do.

BobbyBobberson

She said the guards got on and said "Immigration check". One girl did not have correct visa and was taken away, she was from the Middle East.