Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

ThePanjandrum

Seth Brundle wrote: »

So tell us, what are the positives from that decision?

Three of the major ones

1. It ends uncertainty
2. It enables the UK to look after its own external trade relations
3. It provides a basis on which the EU and UK can build an arm's length FTA

ThePanjandrum

Seth Brundle wrote: »

No. Can you provide a link please?

https://www.ft.com/content/cb1beb94-306e-11e9-8744-e7016697f225

The Financial Times is a solidly Remainer paper.

Water John

You wouldn't furnish a link when asked, then criticise one provided by another poster.

ThePanjandrum

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

What this?

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/land-grab-could-force-uk-investment-jobs-to-move-to-eu-1.3357157



So on top of the 1 trillion $ that has already moved out of UK before 2019, another $10 trillion or so is at risk?

I suppose Brexiteers will blame Diesel for that too

The EU can threaten.

The fact remains that such is the dependency of the EU on London (and this cannot be quickly replicated) that it could crash every economy in the EU within minutes.

ThePanjandrum

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

https://www.ft.com/content/cb1beb94-306e-11e9-8744-e7016697f225

The Financial Times is a solidly Remainer paper.

I hope you understand how small that duel-listed shares thing is in the world of finance.

VinLieger

eagle eye wrote: »

Well I don't think any rational person in the ROI wants to hear statements like that. I want them at the table trying to get something sorted. We are in an awful situation if it's a hard Brexit.

How are you still posting this willfully ignorant swill. The EU and Ireland have been sitting at the table for the past 2 years waiting for the UK to tell them what it wants and all they have been given is bombastic rhetoric like "brexit means brexit" , empty promises about the backstop, and useless suggestions like "alternative arrangements"

There is no consensus in the UK about what they want and until there is there is no point in negotiating as we witnessed when May herself voted against her own deal.

ThePanjandrum

Pter wrote: »

Links?

The EU can't ostracise one of their memberstates like that without the whole thing falling apart.

I think it's people who don't understand the EU who are purporting they will.

The latest one I've seen was from Friday although there have been a number of others

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/02/15/no-deal-brexit-starts-lose-terror-eu-draws-survival-plans/

Seth Brundle

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Three of the major ones

1. It ends uncertainty
2. It enables the UK to look after its own external trade relations
3. It provides a basis on which the EU and UK can build an arm's length FTA

How is #1 a positive of a no deal scenario given that the uncertainty was over whether it would or would not be a no deal scenario? I agree that businesses want certainty. But they also want sense from those in charge and a no deal withdrawal makes absolutely no sense!
In terms of #2, to what benefit will being a smaller market be, compared to when part of the EU? Will this allow the UK hold a stronger position in trade discussions?
As for an FTA with the EU, I guess that also depends on how well the UK sticks to the commitments it us already part of e.g. the GFA.
How do you see UK EU negotiations going in the event of a no deal given that you see a no deal scenario as a positive for the UK?

Baggly

ThePanjandrum wrote:

The latest one I've seen was from Friday although there have been a number of others

Unsubstantiated speculation and rumour tbf. From a UK source that can't claim impartiality. If a prominent name becomes attached to these types of statements I'll pay it need.

Irishmale0399

Ladies and Gents...

Can anyone tell me one product, service or iteam that the UK produce or delivers EU wide that the EU depends on and/or one of its member states cannot provide/produce themselves???

Igotadose

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The latest one I've seen was from Friday although there have been a number of others

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/02/15/no-deal-brexit-starts-lose-terror-eu-draws-survival-plans/

Very few "journalists" are as full of sh1te as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. Used to read his swill 10 years ago in the US. Just a right-wing provacteur trying to sound legitimate. And I believe he characterizes himself as a columnist not journalist, so who knows if he's being truthful.

As the torygraph article posted was behind a paywall (mostly), care to provide any useable links? Something beyond "Unnamed officials in the EU are now unnamedly saying <insert fantasy here>"

eagle eye

Roanmore wrote:

I stopped taking anything you say seriously since you insinuated that Varadkar was more interested in Donald Tusk’s crotch than his hand at their meeting in Dublin. How you were let post in this thread again after that I’ll never know.

Well firstly it was a joke, just seemed funny but people don't seem to get that anymore. Secondly I never mentioned or insinuated anything about Tusk's crotch. The handshake looked at one stage like our Taoiseach was pulling his hand and I laughed about it and posted about it.
Unfortunately these days people take everything very, very seriously it seems. I thought by posting dirty thing at the end of the sentence that people would get that I was just having a laugh but, alas, no just people thinking you are being serious and maybe even anti-gay when it was just light-hearted fun.
I was accused of racism recently too on here and it made me understand that the majority of people don't actually know what racism is.
I'm coming to the end of my time on boards I think because it's becoming very like Twitter and Facebook.
As for this thread, if you say anything that's not fully backing the EU you get attacked by a multitude of posters.
If you were to read all my posts you'll see that I have no faith in TM or the HoC to sort this out, only hope is that we make it happen.
I've posted that I understand there are reasons why people voted for Brexit and got attacked like I was backing Brexit when it's the last thing in the world I want.
Just because I'm capable of looking at it from both sides has made me a subject of attack and even abuse.

ThePanjandrum

Deleted User wrote: »

I hope you understand how small that duel-listed shares thing is in the world of finance.

You are joking, aren't you? Unilever alone has a market capitalisation of $158 Billion and dual listed companies are the biggest ones like Royal Dutch Shell.

ThePanjandrum

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

You are joking, aren't you? Unilever alone has a market capitalisation of $158 Billion and dual listed companies are the biggest ones like Royal Dutch Shell.

Market Cap is largely a pointless figure. Trillions go around the world's markets daily, and the trading of shares of a few dozen big duel-listed companies are a tiny drop in that ocean.

The NYSE daily average was 169bn in 2013 with a market cap of 21 trillion.


There is little chance that people would move out of the EU specifically to trade those stocks, and anyways, Reuters has a more recent article on the issue saying the EU will recognise London so there won't be an issue.

johnnyskeleton

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

https://www.ft.com/content/cb1beb94-306e-11e9-8744-e7016697f225

The Financial Times is a solidly Remainer paper.

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Toxic media

Mod note:

Increase the quality of your posts please

Imreoir2

eagle eye wrote: »

Yeah this is the stuff that makes my blood boil. Somebody from the other side of Europe sticking their nose in. They should keep their mouths shut and stay out of it. It's not like any of their family or friends are going to lose jobs or lose loved ones in a bitter conflict that is likely to reignite.
Like as much as I'm happy with us in Europe the only other English speaking country is leaving.
I'm very worried at how bad things will get here if there is a hard Brexit.

I really, really don't want to hear from leaders of other countries unless they are trying to help sort out this mess.

Yeah, how dare they stick their noses in and support our government to achieve its objectives, the cheek of them showing solidarity with us in our time of need!

An Ciarraioch

British ships sailing to Hong Kong and Japan last Friday will arrive after B-Day, leaving their customs status up in the air:

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2186359/brexit-deadline-looms-asia-bound-ships-slow-boats-china-set

Imreoir2

Report in the Mirror that the latest plan from Brexit land is for the ERG to support the WA to allow an orderly Brexit in return for May stepping down after the locals in May and so that Borris can be crowned party leader.

CelticRambler

That contradicts a Guardian report saying the ERG still say "no way"

Steve Baker, the former Brexit minister and an influential figure in the European Research Group (ERG), retweeted a message saying Brexiter Tories would not like the sound of Wright’s suggestion.

He has consistently emphasised that the ERG would rather support a no-deal Brexit than one that did not legally remove the backstop.

In leaked WhatsApp messages, he told fellow Conservative MPs that failure to remove the Irish backstop completely could mean things would “just grind towards a party split” and he expressed fears that the prime minister’s negotiations were “a complete waste of time”.

CelticRambler

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

British ships sailing to Hong Kong and Japan last Friday will arrive after B-Day, leaving their customs status up in the air

This, and the Fly-BMI situation (unable to sign contracts because their trading partners don't have confidence in the future arrangements for British-registered airlines), demonstrate the futility of the Brexiteers' insistence that the EU will continue negotiating up to, and cave at, the last minute. There is no more last minute; this is the new No-Deal Brexit reality.

Hurrache

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Report in the Mirror that the latest plan from Brexit land is for the ERG to support the WA to allow an orderly Brexit in return for May stepping down after the locals in May and so that Borris can be crowned party leader.

Doesn't make sense as they want a hard Brexit, and despite all the noise, the backstop is not the only issue, just a scapegoat.

Igotadose

A bit more on the odious Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, "The Pied Piper of the Clinton Conspiracists". https://web.archive.org/web/20071125071457/http://www.salon.com/news/1997/12/23news.html

Imreoir2

Hurrache wrote: »

Doesn't make sense as they want a hard Brexit, and despite all the noise, the backstop is not the only issue, just a scapegoat.

Of course it makes no sense, that is the reality of UK politics now, wild sepculation and no one having the slightest idea what to do. It's now a country whos political system is full of schemes and plots all leading nowhere.

Akrasia

Daemonic wrote: »

And the WA is the way to avoid a hard Brexit. It's up to TM and her government to get that message across to the HOC.

They could also withdraw article 50 and call the whole thing off

Akrasia

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Three of the major ones

1. It ends uncertainty
2. It enables the UK to look after its own external trade relations
3. It provides a basis on which the EU and UK can build an arm's length FTA

Ends uncertainty????

Jumping out of an airplane without a parachute ends uncertainty. Crashing out of the EU without any plan for what happens afterwards does not

Capt'n Midnight

Akrasia wrote: »

They could also withdraw article 50 and call the whole thing off

But to do that the Tories and Labour would have to stop actively forcing their MP's to vote for other things.

Other than that it's propose a motion and take a vote.


Small amount of tidy up , like repeal the repeal bill.

But then they'll have to pass the new EU laws on dodgy tax and there's the whole MEP election thing , but the last bit can be fudged.

Enzokk

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Report in the Mirror that the latest plan from Brexit land is for the ERG to support the WA to allow an orderly Brexit in return for May stepping down after the locals in May and so that Borris can be crowned party leader.

I know this has been contradicted in the Guardian, but if this is the plan it is frightening. The only things I would find more concerning is if Gove became PM instead of Johnson. Gove has been on the record stating they should just accept the deal and break it at a later date.

Michael Gove says future PM could change Theresa May's deal after Brexit

Michael Gove has said Theresa May’s Chequers blueprint for Brexit is the “right one for now” but that a future prime minister could alter the UK-EU relationship if they desired.

The environment secretary – one of the most prominent Leave campaigners during the referendum – gave his lukewarm backing for Ms May’s plan as he admitted he himself had “compromised”.

But speaking on Sunday, he refused to say whether the plans thrashed out by the prime minister and agreed by cabinet would be “permanent” and said her successor would have the ability to change it.

And we cannot forget his views on the GFA is not really what you want to read about either,

Michael Gove defends remarks he made in 2000 about Good Friday Agreement negotiations

CONSERVATIVE leadership hopeful Michael Gove last night said he believed the Good Friday Agreement negotiation "could have been handled in a different way".

The candiate for British Prime Minister also defended controversial remarks he made about the Northern Ireland peace process in a paper he wrote in 2000.

In the paper, entitled 'Northern Ireland the Price of Peace', Mr Gove wrote that he believed the IRA could have been defeated and the Good Friday Agreement was a capitulation to them by Tony Blair.

Mr Gove also wrote at the time that he believed the SAS and other undercover killers should have been allowed to continue in Ireland and could have defeated the IRA.

"After Loughgall and Drumnakilly, the government had become cautious, worried about shoot-to-kill accusations," he said.

...

The British justice secretary previously also expressed repeated concerns about the "erosion" of Northern Ireland's British culture.

He also claimed the Good Friday Agreement had turned "the police force into a political plaything whose legitimacy depends on familiarity with fashionable social theories".

He also complained that the deal "uproots justice from its traditions and makes it politically contentious" and that it "demeans traditional expressions of British national identity".

If he became PM I could only see it embolden the DUP and their supporters and I unfortunately do not share the view that violence is not going to happen. With the backing of a PM defending "British Identity" with SAS and undercover killers at his disposal it could be ripe for a return to the issues that a lot of people have been working hard at trying to eliminate.

PeadarCo

Enzokk wrote:

I know this has been contradicted in the Guardian, but if this is the plan it is frightening. The only things I would find more concerning is if Gove became PM instead of Johnson. Gove has been on the record stating they should just accept the deal and break it at a later date.

This is crazy. To do any sort of deal there has to be a certain level of trust. Saying stuff like this in public is stupid unless you actively want a no deal. All it does is it makes a deal harder if not out right impossible. Gove is asking the EU to predict who will be in charge in the UK over the next few years. If you think people like Gove will be in charge at any point getting any sort of long-term deal will be impossible.

Spanish Eyes

Does anyone think the KYLE/WILSON amendment will gain any traction?

Sounds eminently sensible, but obviously is anathema to the ERG and Hard crash out Brexiteers to me.

I would sincerely hope that common sense prevails at the end of the day, since it appears that a majority in the Commons do NOT support a crash out.

I suppose I am clutching at straws now. Sorry. But live in hope too.

FrancieBrady

With May travelling the EU to try and convince EU leaders to change the WA I am not seeing the emergence of 'common sense' yet.