Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Seth Brundle

SKY article on as-yet unanounced Honda closure - Honda to stun ministers with closure of Swindon factory

LuckyLloyd

Honda's announcement sits with previous announcements in that space and the weekly reports of assets being moved from the UK to Dublin or other places in the EU. And all of this fits the timelines and narrative we've been working with. Weeks ahead of No Deal with nothing agreed, businesses are starting to kick contingency planning into gear in ways that are tangible and visible to the public. Of course Brexit has been having an effect before this point, but it manifested as delayed / diverted investment decisions or general inertia. We're now moving into the next phase for larger corporations. Small and medium businesses may not have the luxury, and they'll end up reacting post March 30 rather than making their moves ahead of time.

Tell me how

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I've argued plenty of times that the UK's exit hurts the EU and makes it lesser as a result and not in terms of security cooperation or net contributions. The UK is a great country and it is currently being led by those who are least deserving of that honor. I'm not referring to May here but Farage, Johnson, Gove, etc who agitated for this on behalf of mysterious foreign influences and then flew the coop (with the possible exception of Gove).

Agree with this.

Brexit is the subject matter but the real story is the collapse of the UK as a leader on the world stage not least through the manner in which it is has been corrupted by individuals focused on their own desires.

I too would give some leeway (but not absolve her entirely) to May in this respect.

Also, it's looking pretty clear that the person with some of the biggest influence on the global stage over the last 3 years or so is Putin.

It remains to be seen just what his endgame is, just having Trump in power and the UK leaving the EU are parts of a wider plan I suspect.

VinLieger

Calina wrote: »

Those 3500 jobs will be more. Honda almost certainly has suppliers.

The knock ons from these factory closures are going to be massive but dont seem to be part of the story when these announcements are made

That Honda story is just the latest in a series of sad news. How 54.7% in Swindon voted, as is always the case when you google the city and brexit vote, to leave the EU is beyond me. The supply train to a company that produces "100,000 Civics" there must be quite extraordinary, and utterly impossible to redirect without trade deals and open ports.

We'll have it explained to us here soon that Brexit has nothing to do with it. I'd ask those posters to factor in the greater trend that is being seen here and pinpoint the reason, preferably with similar occurrences in other countries since the car industry is global.

Water John

We'll all go round again to JCB and tell everyone, manufacturing is doing fine.

Leroy42

Is the Honda news simply part of the outcome of the trade deal with Japan rather than Brexit? It will be interesting to see if they are moving production to another EU country or leave altogether (I think Honda UK is the only EU Honda plant).

Regardless, it is yet another massive blow and I have yet to hear anything from any BRexiteer saying how they will in any way orientate the Uk economy to deal with this new 'normal'.

We have heard lots about fabulous trade deals but nothing concrete about jobs.

Baggly

Would they need a trade deal for themselves if they were staying in the EU?

Enzokk

Deleted User wrote: »

That Honda story is just the latest in a series of sad news. How 54.7% in Swindon voted, as is always the case when you google the city and brexit vote, to leave the EU is beyond me. The supply train to a company that produces "100,000 Civics" there must be quite extraordinary, and utterly impossible to redirect without trade deals and open ports.

We'll have it explained to us here soon that Brexit has nothing to do with it. I'd ask those posters to factor in the greater trend that is being seen here and pinpoint the reason, preferably with similar occurrences in other countries since the car industry is global.

Seems the article about the closure is at pains, or at least Honda, not to blame Brexit directly. But it seems that a confluence of factors has led to this. It is always the case that even with no Brexit this plant may have closed due to the other factors that influenced the decision. But the fact that the diesel regulations and the new EU trade deal with Japan in conjunction with Brexit ensured that the plant would close. If the UK was still in the EU there may have been a way to ensure the plant stayed open but leaving the EU probably guaranteed that they would close it.

Calina

VinLieger wrote: »

The knock ons from these factory closures are going to be massive but dont seem to be part of the story when these announcements are made

Not jist the suppliers, but any discretionary spending dependent on jobs dependent on that factory. Shops, bars, restaurants, leisure complexes...The web is huge. And likely to be far beyond Swindon depending on where the suppliers are..Not all of them will be UK based either.

Enzokk

Enzokk wrote: »

Seems the article about the closure is at pains, or at least Honda, not to blame Brexit directly. But it seems that a confluence of factors has led to this. It is always the case that even with no Brexit this plant may have closed due to the other factors that influenced the decision. But the fact that the diesel regulations and the new EU trade deal with Japan in conjunction with Brexit ensured that the plant would close. If the UK was still in the EU there may have been a way to ensure the plant stayed open but leaving the EU probably guaranteed that they would close it.

It would be quite likely that with the trade deal in place with the EU, the plant would stay open since it's there, it's operational, and it's got all the supply lines set up.

But with Brexit and a trade deal, it is likely easier to expand production in Japan and just export to the EU.

RobMc59

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

I know, that's the scary part. I was a teacher in London when he sec for education and never seen a minister so universally hated.

Although the majority of the tories are perceived as arrogant and out of touch with the general population,Gove is particularly unctuous and totally untrustworthy-changing his allegiance at the drop of a hat to further his own ambitions.

Calina

Calina wrote: »

Not jist the suppliers, but any discretionary spending dependent on jobs dependent on that factory. Shops, bars, restaurants, leisure complexes...The web is huge. And likely to be far beyond Swindon depending on where the suppliers are..Not all of them will be UK based either.

Prepare yourselves. This negatively affecting the EU as well will probably be the talking point, by stating that the trade deal with Japan led directly to this.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

Is the Honda news simply part of the outcome of the trade deal with Japan rather than Brexit? It will be interesting to see if they are moving production to another EU country or leave altogether (I think Honda UK is the only EU Honda plant).

Regardless, it is yet another massive blow and I have yet to hear anything from any BRexiteer saying how they will in any way orientate the Uk economy to deal with this new 'normal'.

We have heard lots about fabulous trade deals but nothing concrete about jobs.

It is their only plant in the EU. The article mentions they will move production to Japan as there is no tariffs with the new trade deal.

I understand that the new diesel regulations are having an impact. Is it a case that the UK has been extremely unlucky in that all their car manufacturing involves only diesel vehicles? Surely it stands to reason that the sales of would be diesel models would be replaced by petrol models or hybrid/electric vehicles. So is it a case of the UK just being so unlucky that almost all of their car manufacturers is only producing diesel engine vehicles or is it a convenient excuse used by management not to blame Brexit and their own workers who effectively voted for their own job losses?

CelticRambler

Water John wrote: »

HOC I believe won't allow No Deal Brexit, whatever TM thinks.

The HoC can't "not allow" No Deal (triple negative - is this what Brexit has done to us? ) - if it's going to do anything, it has to agree to a specific deal, any deal, but so far the HoC has shown that it can only agree to oppose, not support. Hardly the basis for good government.

rivegauche

Jaysus, industry is being eviscerated in the UK.
The few world leading companies stupid enough to remain once Britain steps over the line in to WTO will be picked off, one by one, by their competitors who have the ear of government in the larger trading blocks by dumping and speedily erected visible and invisible barriers to trade and winning a hard fought court case 10 years down the line before the WTO won't make a blind bit of difference as they'll be out of business by then.

CelticRambler

CelticRambler wrote: »

The HoC can't "not allow" No Deal (triple negative - is this what Brexit has done to us? ) - if it's going to do anything, it has to agree to a specific deal, any deal, but so far the HoC has shown that it can only agree to oppose, not support. Hardly the basis for good government.

I still consider my bet that Article 50 be withdrawn to be fairly ok. Less likely than it felt a month ago, but perhaps possible.

Harry Palmr

Sounds like the Civic for Europe will be made in Japan, presumably now the EU has it's trade agreement with Japan they've decided that bringing production back home probably to an expanded existing plant makes sense.

Water John

My understanding is that Parliament can vote for TM to rule out No Deal. This would be a binding resolution, not just the opinion of Parliament.

Calina

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Prepare yourselves. This negatively affecting the EU as well will probably be the talking point, by stating that the trade deal with Japan led directly to this.

The EU has always recognised Brexit would bring a negative effect.

What the UK papers attempt to project will be of zero relevance. All EU countries have their own internal economics and polotics to deal with.

CelticRambler

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Honda's announcement sits with previous announcements in that space and the weekly reports of assets being moved from the UK to Dublin or other places in the EU. And all of this fits the timelines and narrative we've been working with.

It certainly fits a pattern, but perhaps on this occasion it's more to do with the new EU-Japan trade deal. Honda doesn't have any other EU factories, so any future manufacturing will (presumably) be carried out in Asia and the vehicles shipped directly into the EU market. I'm sure the increasing likelihood of a no-deal Brexit and the disruption to supply routes simply helped justify a decision that was already in the pipeline.

Now while that argument fits into the same narrative as we're heard in respect of Nissan and others (external forces, nothing to do with Brexit) the critical point is that these are exportable goods and as such would have been included in the now-rejected WA/Transitional period, along with chemicals/pharma, some agricultural product and some high-tech. Losing these sectors now, even with a deal, is going to leave services as a greater percentage of the UK's export, and most of those are not included in the Deal.

Even yesterday, I heard a Brexiteer boast about Britain being the 5th largest economy in the world, and that's enough to ensure that nothing can possibly go wrong ...

rivegauche

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Sounds like the Civic for Europe will be made in Japan, presumably now the EU has it's trade agreement with Japan they've decided that bringing production back home probably to an expanded existing plant makes sense.

It doesn't make that much sense. Those Civics and other cars on that platform on that production line in the UK could still be built on the production line and would be closer to the destination market. Japan isn't a huge market for bigger cars like these. Kei cars outsell everything else in Japan. It'd make sense if they said they are not building Civic there and using the production line for another model but they are closing everything down at a production location which has no history of poor industrial relations.

Enzokk

Valhallapt wrote: »

Interesting article saying we are headed to Salzburg part deux https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-sets-course-for-brexit-disaster-no-deal-withdrawal-treaty/

Essentially May is running down the clock until the last week, will then present a suit of Alternative Arrangements , none of which likely to be agreed by EU, then she can turn around and blame EU for a no deal.

We are going to walk into no-deal Brexit if she is banking on the EU moving during the last minute. Either no-deal or a worse deal for the UK and I cannot see her going back and getting a worse deal through parliament. This quote from the article sums it up really,

“There’s a constant theme here,” the MP said. “Every single Brexiteer says the same thing — 'the EU bailed out the Greeks, they will move at the death.' But, no, they f**king didn’t move for the Greeks. The Greeks got an even worse deal. There’s a real danger here that we are going to walk into the room with the same demands and get the same result.”

Imreoir2

Tell me how wrote: »

Agree with this.

Brexit is the subject matter but the real story is the collapse of the UK as a leader on the world stage not least through the manner in which it is has been corrupted by individuals focused on their own desires.

I too would give some leeway (but not absolve her entirely) to May in this respect.

Also, it's looking pretty clear that the person with some of the biggest influence on the global stage over the last 3 years or so is Putin.

It remains to be seen just what his endgame is, just having Trump in power and the UK leaving the EU are parts of a wider plan I suspect.

I heard commentary suggesting that there is growing concern in the Kremlin that their strategy of destabelising the UK and driving a wedge into the EU has if anything gotten out of hand. "Fears of catestophic success" was the phrase used. Seemingly while Russia may have benefited from political tensions, the UK economey going into meltdown will not help a strugelling Russia.

Not sure how valid it is, though it would be nice to think that even Putin regrets supporting Brexit.

Imreoir2

Enzokk wrote: »

It is their only plant in the EU. The article mentions they will move production to Japan as there is no tariffs with the new trade deal.

I understand that the new diesel regulations are having an impact. Is it a case that the UK has been extremely unlucky in that all their car manufacturing involves only diesel vehicles? Surely it stands to reason that the sales of would be diesel models would be replaced by petrol models or hybrid/electric vehicles. So is it a case of the UK just being so unlucky that almost all of their car manufacturers is only producing diesel engine vehicles or is it a convenient excuse used by management not to blame Brexit and their own workers who effectively voted for their own job losses?

To be fair, Nissan did blame Brexit, the Brexiteers just don't want to hear it.

CelticRambler

Water John wrote: »

My understanding is that Parliament can vote for TM to rule out No Deal. This would be a binding resolution, not just the opinion of Parliament.

Parliament can vote for the reintroduction of the stegosaurus to every nature reserve in England, and make it a binding resolution. So what? The EU cannot agree to nothingness. If there is no deal put forward by the UK and agreed by the EU27 and the HoC within 39 days, no amount of binding resolutions are going to change that.

CelticRambler

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Seemingly while Russia may have benefited from political tensions, the UK economey going into meltdown will not help a strugelling Russia.

Not sure how valid it is, though it would be nice to think that even Putin regrets supporting Brexit.

Yeah, it'd be a bitter-sweet irony watching your favourite oligarch's London-based property values fall through the floor, and him not being able to get his cash out of a no-deal UK! :cool:

Leroy42

Enzokk wrote: »

We are going to walk into no-deal Brexit if she is banking on the EU moving during the last minute. Either no-deal or a worse deal for the UK and I cannot see her going back and getting a worse deal through parliament. This quote from the article sums it up really,

And from my understanding after watching the recent BBC documentary about Europe and the EU, the UK stayed completely out of any part of helping Greece and the basis that it was a Euro issue.

So isn't it just as likely that many in the EU will see Brexit as primarily a UK and ROI problem and why should they loosen the rules of the EU just to solve that?

road_high

Honda is a devastating blow indeed. The Japanese don’t pussyfoot around when it comes to hard business decisions.
EU trade deal gives them options. I’m sure they’d have kept Swindon had they remained in the EU though

lawred2

road_high wrote: »

Honda is a devastating blow indeed. The Japanese don’t pussyfoot around when it comes to hard business decisions.
EU trade deal gives them options. I’m sure they’d have kept Swindon had they remained in the EU though

Nissan to follow suit?