Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Imreoir2

Sam Russell wrote: »

Michael Howered mentioned goig to war over Gibraltar.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/britain-and-eu-worse-off-without-brexit-deal-says-michael-fallon

So not out of the Brexiteer thought processes.

Surely the assumption would be that this would be a response to Spanish agression rather than a pre-emptive strike against Spain. The pendulum swings both ways, there would be deep and lasting consequences for Spain if they decided to go ahead and capture the Rock.

ancapailldorcha

Posts deleted. Serious contributions only please.

EdgeCase

briany wrote: »

No, another poster was just noting that British rhetoric is getting so fraught that you start to wonder how long before they're threatening some sort of show of force.

If they did it would be the end of their NATO membership, and of all relations with the EU, likelihood of problems dealing with the US going forwards (it's not all about Trump over there) and basically ending up like Russia without the oil.

It's not a very sane strategy.

You'd be talking about the end of the modern era in the UK.

That being said they basically were told to cop on during the Cod Wars with Iceland as the Icelanders threatened to expel the very strategically important NATO base at Keflavik. It would have weakened the US' missile defences! So there is precedent for that kind of crazy.

Professor Moriarty

EdgeCase wrote: »

If they did it would be the end of their NATO membership, and of all relations with the EU, likelihood of problems dealing with the US going forwards (it's not all about Trump over there) and basically ending up like Russia without the oil.

It's not a very sane strategy.

You'd be talking about the end of the modern era in the UK.

If it got to that point, it would be England going to war with Spain not Britain. Anyway, I wouldn't pay much attention to anything Michael Howard says.

Nody

UK has a new port policy which will go down great with the WTO and smugglers will in no way abuse it...

UK ports will wave through goods from the EU without checks if there is a no-deal Brexit to avoid huge traffic jams, it has been announced.

Tax chiefs have told 145,000 businesses they will be allowed to make declarations later – and postpone paying any import duties – to calm fears of border chaos.

However the really fun stuff will come once this (preliminary 1 year policy) ends because:

They were faced with submitting a 40-answer declaration form for every consignment before entering Britain, taking an estimated 10 minutes to fill in.

The Road Haulage Association had warned that, given the average trailer has 400 consignments, it would take nine people eight hours to process it.

So let's see; breach of WTO terms? Check. Smuggling heaven? Check. Impossible future process? Check.

Yup; standard Brexit solution for sure.

EdgeCase

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If it got to that point, it would be England going to war with Spain, not Britain. Anyway, I wouldn't pay much attention to anything Michael Howard says.

I wouldn't be surprised if the rhetoric were to be really ratcheted up dramatically. It'll all be rhetoric but you can expect some utterly daft comments.

briany

EdgeCase wrote: »

I wouldn't be surprised if the rhetoric were to be really ratcheted up dramatically. It'll all be rhetoric but you can expect some utterly daft comments.

I'd be more worried about who the rhetoric is coming from. If it's coming from central political figures with the actual power to shape rhetoric into action, then that's worrying. If it's coming from backbench MPs who are backbenchers for a good reason, or racist-grandad Lords, then that's just par for the course.

Sam Russell

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Surely the assumption would be that this would be a response to Spanish agression rather than a pre-emptive strike against Spain. The pendulum swings both ways, there would be deep and lasting consequences for Spain if they decided to go ahead and capture the Rock.

That article is dated 2nd April 2017 - so maybe it was a joke, but Howered is a bit of a joke as well.

I doubt that Spain has any intention of invading the rock, but they might close the border. That would bring matters to a head.

Edit: I miss spelt Howard - mixing him up with Frankie Howered - a true joker.

josip

eire4 wrote: »

If there is a no deal the pain economically that they will suffer will be very serious and most likely will soften and or overcome any present ill will against Ireland being stoked up in London.

I'm not so sure.
When economic sanctions/embargoes are placed against countries, the ruling party then usually uses that to deflect from the actual cause of their woes.
Similarly I would expect the Conservatives to be well able to convince the citizens of the UK that their hardship is caused by the EU, and in particular Ireland, for insisting on the backstop and forcing them into no deal Brexit.
The ground on which they will seek to plant this message is very fertile.

bilston

briany wrote: »

No, another poster was just noting that British rhetoric is getting so fraught that you start to wonder how long before they're threatening some sort of show of force.

Maybe you will wonder Briant, but the truth is that Britain is not going to threaten any kind of show of force against anyone.

briany

josip wrote: »

I'm not so sure.
When economic sanctions/embargoes are placed against countries, the ruling party then usually uses that to deflect from the actual cause of their woes.
Similarly I would expect the Conservatives to be well able to convince the citizens of the UK that their hardship is caused by the EU, and in particular Ireland, for insisting on the backstop and forcing them into no deal Brexit.
The ground on which they will seek to plant this message is very fertile.

I wonder if this line would cause more resentment towards Ireland and the Irish in Britain than the times that Irish people were actually going around bombing the place?

It'd be almost funny if it weren't so sad.

Irishmale0399

eire4 wrote: »

If there is a no deal the pain economically that they will suffer will be very serious and most likely will soften and or overcome any present ill will against Ireland being stoked up in London.

They will blame Ireland and its people....it will be everyone elses fault.

4068ac1elhodqr

Nody wrote: »

UK has a new port policy which will go down great with the WTO and smugglers will in no way abuse it...

So let's see; breach of WTO terms? Check. Smuggling heaven? Check. Impossible future process? Check.

Don't forget: (pending) Tax Haven: check.

Japan on the other side of the world was last year was sounding off about the prospect of britan positioning as a low tax island (yearly drops on CT tax, soon heading towards 17%).

Panasonic have already shifted to Amsterdam, and production on the new Nissan yokes is being reverted to Japan.

Infini

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

They will blame Ireland and its people....it will be everyone elses fault.

They can blame all they want... until we turn around and basically tell them they brought it on themselves and to feck off with their ignorant bull and not to speak to us until they've gotten their act together. They also seem to forget that we DO have quite a few connections about the place and we could make things more difficult for them if we really wanted to though however we generally don't want to be going down that road unless were truly pushed on it.

First Up

Nody wrote:

So let's see; breach of WTO terms? Check. Smuggling heaven? Check. Impossible future process? Check.

Yup; standard Brexit solution for sure.

Taking back control by removing all controls......

briany

First Up wrote: »

Taking back control by removing all controls......

Does that mean that JRM's prediction, that there will be no border on the UK side, will come true (just not for the same reason)?

Folkstonian

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If it got to that point, it would be England going to war with Spain not Britain. Anyway, I wouldn't pay much attention to anything Michael Howard says.

That sounds fun - we could channel the spirit of Sir Francis Drake and take Spanish flagged vessels as a prize to make up for the Brexit related loss of GDP!

In all seriousness though, spain’s antics around Gibraltar have not been particularly dignified. They deliberately sail naval vessels through gibraltarian waters to bait and test the British response.

Not a great way to act towards a fellow NATO member and European ally!

What’s worse is for some reason, they continue to allow Russian naval ships to dock in Cádiz to refuel as resupply en route to assisting Assad. Spain definitely have problems.

Infini

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I guess they did not like Gibraltar being referred to as a colony?

And that picture ironically features..... a unicorn yet mention its a colony and everyone loses their minds. The mind boggles.

Folkstonian

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I guess they did not like Gibraltar being referred to as a colony?

Gibraltar has not been known as a colony since the 80s.

We tend not to refer to German Democratic Republic and the Stasi much these days either, because it’s discourteous and innacurate

Tell me how

Folkstonian wrote: »

Gibraltar has not been known as a colony since the 80s.

We tend not to refer to German Democratic Republic and the Stasi much these days either, because it’s discourteous and innacurate

Is it not the case that Gibraltar referred to itself as a colony in legal documents to the EU as recently as 2016 or 17?

Saw that stated on Twitter from, I think a reputable source, I'll look for a link.

RobMc59

Infini wrote: »

And that picture ironically features..... a unicorn yet mention its a colony and everyone loses their minds. The mind boggles.

Wow-that's takes me back-I haven't seen one of those old passports since the early 70's when my sister lived in Gibraltar!

FrancieBrady

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I guess they did not like Gibraltar being referred to as a colony?

Did they really think that any right thinking people would be fooled by their outrage?
Once a colony, always a colony.

FrancieBrady

Has she been to Brussels yet? What is happening with that?
https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0204/1027349-brexit-brexiteers-backstop/?fbclid=IwAR1s8nZaWPBeRGIASXITm7mDIRIWY5l79j_GVRscCuyf8QZTZSq2zp9mXi4

RobMc59

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/04/brexit-is-a-revolt-against-german-run-europe-super-state---commentary.html
Perhaps outside Europe are seeing things differently.

Hurrache

Tell me how wrote: »

Is it not the case that Gibraltar referred to itself as a colony in legal documents to the EU as recently as 2016 or 17?

Saw that stated on Twitter from, I think a ré putable source, I'll look for a link.

You're correct. Saw that myself and the accompanying documentation in which they referred to themselves as a colony.

tuxy

Tell me how wrote: »

Is it not the case that Gibraltar referred to itself as a colony in legal documents to the EU as recently as 2016 or 17?

Saw that stated on Twitter from, I think a reputable source, I'll look for a link.

I think they wanted to be regarded as a separate entity from the UK for tax purposes and pointed out to the EU that the UN recognised them as having former colony status.
So I think former colony and not colony is the correct term.
Of curse it was all a load of nonsense so they didn't have to pay gambling tax to the UK

Enzokk

RobMc59 wrote: »

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/04/brexit-is-a-revolt-against-german-run-europe-super-state---commentary.html
Perhaps outside Europe are seeing things differently.

Do you agree with the commentary piece? Do you think the EU Commission is run by Berlin? Do you think this is correct as well?

To get back at Italy for refusing to follow Germany's diktat on immigration policies, Berlin led the assault, with its French sidekicks, on Italy's attempts to rescue its sinking economy with fiscal policies that were well within the euro-area budget rules.

Germany and its EU Commission now got exactly what they wanted: The Italian economy sank into recession late last year, and will probably remain there for most of 2019.

Is there a plan to get Italy and force them into recession because of their immigration policies? Or has Italy been a problem economy for a while now before the immigration crises and it has only come to a head now?

Akrasia

Nody wrote: »

UK has a new port policy which will go down great with the WTO and smugglers will in no way abuse it...

However the really fun stuff will come once this (preliminary 1 year policy) ends because:

So let's see; breach of WTO terms? Check. Smuggling heaven? Check. Impossible future process? Check.

Yup; standard Brexit solution for sure.

I suppose thats one way of doing it.

The EU spent years drawing up contingency plans for a No deal. The UK reveal that their plan is to throw open their border and just trust everyone to declare their imports accurately.

It'll drive their non EU trading partners mad

Tell me how

Adrian Chiles just had a program on BBC where he visited strong Remain and Leave areas and also spoke to a lot of the back bench MP's (again both Leave and remain focused) to try to determine what exactly is going on.

He attended the Suella Braverman constituency meeting which she tweeted about there being near unanimous support to leave. What was striking about that was the number of grey heads in the room.

Also incredibly interesting were a farmer and business man who both admitted that leaving was a problem but that they still want to do so.

They have to leave, I think that much is clear as there will never be faith in a referendum again if they don't and then it is metaphorically in the laps of the gods what way it will ultimately play out.

First Up

Akrasia wrote:

It'll drive their non EU trading partners mad

And make them the laughing stock of the entire WTO.