Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

mrbrianj

Deleted User wrote: »

I still consider my bet that Article 50 be withdrawn to be fairly ok. Less likely than it felt a month ago, but perhaps possible.

God be with the person or party that withdraws Article 50, they will have failed to deliver Brexit and all its fantasies, and also failed to tump the EU into a trade deal that completely favoured the UK.

They cant get what was promised, they cant get a better trade deal than before - anywhere, and cant back out after wrecking the UK's reputation and inflicting so much damage to business, for something that did not even add up to a fairy tale..

rivegauche

lawred2 wrote: »

Nissan to follow suit?

They'd be ruthless enough to do it but they've already cut production of some lines at Sunderland to leave more space for the Qashqai and maybe Juke.
https://www.motoringresearch.com/car-news/nissan-to-end-pulsar-production/

Something like the Leaf might be pulled back to Japan when it needs to move on to the next EV platform.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/oct/04/will-nissan-stay-once-britain-leaves-sunderland-brexit-business-dilemma

Calina

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I still consider my bet that Article 50 be withdrawn to be fairly ok. Less likely than it felt a month ago, but perhaps possible.

It won't reverse the losses. This is the part that won't be understood. Honda will go. The financial services might slink back but over years. The X Trail won't be built in Sunderland.

The UK will be restarting from scratch.

mrbrianj

mrbrianj wrote: »

God be with the person or party that withdraws Article 50, they will have failed to deliver Brexit and all its fantasies, and also failed to tump the EU into a trade deal that completely favoured the UK.

They cant get what was promised, they cant get a better trade deal than before - anywhere, and cant back out after wrecking the UK's reputation and inflicting so much damage to business, for something that did not even add up to a fairy tale..

I reckon March could see what happened with Labour today times many. That's obviously a bold statement but when the writing's on the wall, many MPs will either want to go for the greater good, or at least be seen to be doing it.

The fallout would be immense but the world can just switch off and let them deal with it themselves.

Calina wrote: »

It won't reverse the losses. This is the part that won't be understood. Honda will go. The financial services might slink back but over years. The X Trail won't be built in Sunderland.

The UK will be restarting from scratch.

Yep, even with the Withdrawal agreement or a cancellation of Article 50, investment is gone for a generation.

road_high

lawred2 wrote: »

Nissan to follow suit?

Possibly. And Toyota. May not be immediate but will follow if this brexit ****e goes on

road_high

rivegauche wrote: »

They'd be ruthless enough to do it but they've already cut production of some lines at Sunderland to leave more space for the Qashqai and maybe Juke.
https://www.motoringresearch.com/car-news/nissan-to-end-pulsar-production/

Something like the Leaf might be pulled back to Japan when it needs to move on to the next EV platform.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/oct/04/will-nissan-stay-once-britain-leaves-sunderland-brexit-business-dilemma

Car making is a medium term business. Things may stay the same for a few years as product cycles run, it’s the non replacement of new models that is the savage blow. Key product lines go elsewhere

Leroy42

It is clear that the antipated (as in expected rather than longed for) negative effects on the UK economy are starting to become apparent. These were well signposted by many but in many cases it underappreciated the value of belief that the UK would cancel Brexit or work to limit its effects such that it has taken far longer than many expected for these trends to become clear.

But as others have pointed out, clearly there is a negative impact on the UK economy due to the continued lack of clarity, and fear of non deal, over brexit.

In many cases, these decision will take many years to be reversed and there still appears little in the way of a plan of how to deal with, hwat many brexiteers claim, was a predictable outcome due to EU bullying etc

rivegauche

road_high wrote: »

Car making is a medium term business. Things may stay the same for a few years as product cycles run, it’s the non replacement of new models that is the savage blow. Key product lines go elsewhere

Leaf is being replaced in two to three years time on new platform. The retooling of plants is being decided right now.

Hurrache

So the local conservative has gone from this
https://twitter.com/JustinTomlinson/status/1083410541463437312
to this
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1097509914623258627

RobMc59

Calina wrote: »

It won't reverse the losses. This is the part that won't be understood. Honda will go. The financial services might slink back but over years. The X Trail won't be built in Sunderland.

The UK will be restarting from scratch.

So if the financial services may slink back,it`s reasonable to say they`re slinking away now.

Unemployed white British people will be flooding the English-teaching world over the next couple of years, just like South Africans have been.

Think I need to prepare for depressed wages due to the extra supply. At least it's a good option for people with the choice to do it.

Quin_Dub

Irish goods exports hit record level as reliance on Britain falls

DUBLIN (Reuters) - The value of Irish goods exports rose by 15 percent to a record 140 billion euros (£123 billion) last year as a fall in the goods sold into Britain was substantially offset by increases to almost all of Ireland’s other major trade partners.

Ireland’s export-led economy has been the best performing in the European Union since 2014 and the government forecasts that gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7.5 percent last year as Brexit had little immediate impact on activity.

The value of goods sold to Britain, which is due to leave the European Union on March 29, fell by 3 percent to 14 billion euros, the second annual fall in three years.

The share of goods exported to Ireland’s nearest neighbour has fallen to 11 percent from 17 percent a decade ago.

No-Deal Brexit will definitely hurt Ireland , but a lot less than it might have done a few years ago.

And you would assume that that 11% will be more than substituted by replacing the UK exports to the EU that will no longer be happening post Brexit.

rivegauche

Deleted User wrote: »

Think I need to prepare for depressed wages due to the extra supply. At least it's a good option for people with the choice to do it.

Why do you have to make everything about yerself

Larbre34

Even if the UK hit the emergency stop on Brexit today, cancelled it outright, these big car makers will not risk being dragged down the same road of very, very expensive uncertainty in Britain again. They will locate either in places like Slovakia, or repatriate the whole lot back to Japan and benefit from the upcoming tariff free conditions of the EU-Japan trade deal.

The damage of Brexit is already done, it has passed the point of no return. The Deputy CEO of Airbus went on BBC TV yesterday to give them one final warning, that unless there was an immediate course change, they will be gone too. Another 30 or 40,000 direct and indirect jobs in the places that can least afford to loose them.

rivegauche

If Shorts/Bombardier lose more work and jobs in any way that is remotely attributable to BREXIT you can accelerate that border poll. They're making ailerons for Airbus now and their position as the most important high-tech company in Northern Ireland means anything which affects them will weigh in the minds of the citizens up North.

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

So the local conservative has gone from this
https://twitter.com/JustinTomlinson/status/1083410541463437312
to this
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1097509914623258627

I have worked closely with them and they fully support the PMs Brexit deal

what Brexit deal is that then? The one the PM voted against?

Baggly

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Irish goods exports hit record level as reliance on Britain falls


No-Deal Brexit will definitely hurt Ireland , but a lot less than it might have done a few years ago.

And you would assume that that 11% will be more than substituted by replacing the UK exports to the EU that will no longer be happening post Brexit.

The issue with the 11% stat is that there are some industries particularly invested above this overall average. 38% of Irish food produce goes to the UK. I'm not so sure this industry is flexible enough to absorb tariffs OR pivot to sell fresh produce beyond the UK. So yes, overall Ireland isnt as exposed as we used to be, but you are looking at €5bn in food exports to the UK perhaps no longer being tenable, not to mention the €4.1bn of food we also import from the UK.

They will of course be worse off than us given supply from the rest of the EU will be compromised, but raising that 11% figure doesnt actually convey how a key sector like argi-food is exposed here in Ireland.

Source: https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/publications/2018/BrexitFactsheetApril240418.pdf

Quin_Dub

Hurrache wrote: »

So the local conservative has gone from this
https://twitter.com/JustinTomlinson/status/1083410541463437312
to this
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1097509914623258627

So , every single announcement in the last few weeks/months where the companies have explicitly said "It's because of Brexit" or at least "It's because of the uncertainty in the UK right now" is not actually for those reasons at all - It's because of "global stuff" ??

Has there been a single announcement from any company in the UK where they have said " We're expanding our business because of Brexit" ?

Hurrache

lawred2 wrote: »

what Brexit deal is that then? The one the PM voted against?

It's off the wall alright.

lawred2

Quin_Dub wrote: »

So , every single announcement in the last few weeks/months where the companies have explicitly said "It's because of Brexit" or at least "It's because of the uncertainty in the UK right now" is not actually for those reasons at all - It's because of "global stuff" ??

Has there been a single announcement from any company in the UK where they have said " We're expanding our business because of Brexit" ?

global stuff up to but not including Brexit

Because Brexit isn't global stuff at all at all

At this stage, in my eyes I can only see that there are only two possible reasons for being an ardent Brexiteer.. You're ultimately just a xenophobic union jack waving troglodyte or you're a sublime Machiavellian operator.

Because I can't believe that any politician is just that stupid.

Hurrache

Quin_Dub wrote: »

So , every single announcement in the last few weeks/months where the companies have explicitly said "It's because of Brexit" or at least "It's because of the uncertainty in the UK right now" is not actually for those reasons at all - It's because of "global stuff" ??

Has there been a single announcement from any company in the UK where they have said " We're expanding our business because of Brexit" ?

Seems to be par for the course alright, everything is just a coincidence. I mean Honda even warned of issues back in November 2017 if there were dragged outside of the customs union.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/14/honda-uk-warns-mps-of-consequences-of-leaving-eu-customs-union

Harry Palmr

The gutting of the UK automotive sector is clearly linked to Brexit, be it as a practical necessity or as a pretext for bringing undisclosed closures forward. It's all real jobs going going gone.

rivegauche

UK publication "Car Magazine" article on BREXIT
https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-news/industry-news/toyota/brexit-threat-to-burnaston-toyota-chief-questions-viability-of-uk-factory/

Quin_Dub

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The gutting of the UK automotive sector is clearly linked to Brexit, be it as a practical necessity or as a pretext for bringing undisclosed closures forward. It's all real jobs going going gone.

I'm sure there's an element of this - Never let a good disaster go to waste and all that.

But , they are doing this , because they see it as a disaster and are not seeing a long term upside in the UK.

If they believed in the Post-Brexit boom story , they'd be staying..

prawnsambo

rivegauche wrote: »

It doesn't make that much sense. Those Civics and other cars on that platform on that production line in the UK could still be built on the production line and would be closer to the destination market. Japan isn't a huge market for bigger cars like these. Kei cars outsell everything else in Japan. It'd make sense if they said they are not building Civic there and using the production line for another model but they are closing everything down at a production location which has no history of poor industrial relations.

The problem is that the car manufacturing business is hugely dependant on the single market. Honda in Swindon don't manufacture everything for their cars in Swindon. THey import parts from all over Europe and assemble them. Any kind of delay at the borders will shut their assembly lines down. Stockpiling would require huge warehouse space that they don't have. As well as going against their entire manufacturing systems. The Japanese pretty much invented JIT manufacturing. So they would be facing unquantifiable delays, multiple tariffs on parts coming in and tariffs on cars going out. It's unsustainable.

Imreoir2

Quin_Dub wrote: »

I'm sure there's an element of this - Never let a good disaster go to waste and all that.

But , they are doing this , because they see it as a disaster and are not seeing a long term upside in the UK.

If they believed in the Post-Brexit boom story , they'd be staying..

If they believed the Post-Brexit boom story, presumably they would have gone out of business years ago, credulous fools tend not the do too well in the business world.

rivegauche

prawnsambo wrote: »

The problem is that the car manufacturing business is hugely dependant on the single market. Honda in Swindon don't manufacture everything for their cars in Swindon. THey import parts from all over Europe and assemble them. Any kind of delay at the borders will shut their assembly lines down. Stockpiling would require huge warehouse space that they don't have. As well as going against their entire manufacturing systems. The Japanese pretty much invented JIT manufacturing. So they would be facing unquantifiable delays, multiple tariffs on parts coming in and tariffs on cars going out. It's unsustainable.

I know. I was replacing bulbs in my car yesterday and noted that the headlamps were made in Slovenia just a week or two before the manufacture date of the car.
A supply chain is like a complicated watch movement.

road_high

Union chief in Honda Swindon “shell shocked” according to Sky. Sounds like no one was expecting a full shut down.
But it’s what they voted for, are adamant they want deal or no deal.
The bosses of companies like Honda couldn’t have been clearer since 2016- they wanted to remain trading as presently allowed but the uk government pretty much pursued the opposite

Quin_Dub

prawnsambo wrote: »

The problem is that the car manufacturing business is hugely dependant on the single market. Honda in Swindon don't manufacture everything for their cars in Swindon. THey import parts from all over Europe and assemble them. Any kind of delay at the borders will shut their assembly lines down. Stockpiling would require huge warehouse space that they don't have. As well as going against their entire manufacturing systems. The Japanese pretty much invented JIT manufacturing. So they would be facing unquantifiable delays, multiple tariffs on parts coming in and tariffs on cars going out. It's unsustainable.

Absolutely..

I've seen JIT manufacturing facilities - They simply don't have storage space , at all.

I factory I'm familiar with basically had loading bays at either end of the building , the components came off the trucks at one end , moved directly to the production line and the completed product was loaded into empty trucks at the far end.

In that site, a delay of more than about 90 minutes (which was the time taken to assemble the final product) would bring the factory to a complete halt.

Whilst I'm sure it take more than 90 minutes to build a car , any delay longer than whatever the end to end production time is will stop the factory cold.

And that's just simple physical logistics , add in the additional costs of tariffs and customs processing etc. and it's a done deal.

rivegauche

road_high wrote: »

Union chief in Honda Swindon “shell shocked” according to Sky. Sounds like no one was expecting a full shut down.
But it’s what they voted for, are adamant they want deal or no deal.
The bosses of companies like Honda couldn’t have been clearer since 2016- they wanted to remain trading as presently allowed but the uk government pretty much pursued the opposite

I doubt many people in the Honda plant were voting for BREXIT. They would been aware that they are in competition with the world for their jobs.