Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

road_high

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The gutting of the UK automotive sector is clearly linked to Brexit, be it as a practical necessity or as a pretext for bringing undisclosed closures forward. It's all real jobs going going gone.

It was booming up to 2016, yearly increases in production and new investments.

listermint

rivegauche wrote: »

I doubt many people in the Honda plant were voting for BREXIT. They would been aware that they are in competition with the world for their jobs.

I doubt thats true, I would imagine loads of them voted for it.

Precisely because they didnt understand it.

The guy who has a flowers business who now stands to lose it all on Sky News, He voted for it and was still on the fence if his vote was a good idea...


Lunacy!!!

road_high

rivegauche wrote: »

I doubt many people in the Honda plant were voting for BREXIT. They would been aware that they are in competition with the world for their jobs.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36616088
Swindon voted 55% Brexit. You can bet your nelly large numbers in Honda and related industries did indeed vote for brexit!

Imreoir2

listermint wrote: »

I doubt thats true, I would imagine loads of them voted for it.

Precisely because they didnt understand it.

The guy who has a flowers business who now stands to lose it all on Sky News, He voted for it and was still on the fence if his vote was a good idea...


Lunacy!!!

I think you will find that there will be a phase of justification wherby the mindset will be that if the unicorns had arrived then everything would have been fine and the blame lies with those who prevented the unicorns from cantering along.

rivegauche

road_high wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36616088
Swindon voted 55% Brexit. You can bet your nelly large numbers in Honda and related industries did indeed vote for brexit!

No I don't believe the Honda employees are in that 55% majority. The senior citizens who still expect their pensions and NHS to be paid for would have been the ones who did it.
Justin Tomlinson MP is in a constituency with 80000 electorate.
A lot of people who won't be living long to suffer the consequences of their actions decide the fate of others.

prawnsambo

rivegauche wrote: »

I doubt many people in the Honda plant were voting for BREXIT. They would been aware that they are in competition with the world for their jobs.

I know that sounds logical, but there was nothing logical about the brexit vote. There was that flower importer interviewd on BBC who was saying that any delays at customes would close his company down. And then the kicker when he said he voted to leave. John Oliver replayed that interview the other night, so you will probably find it on YouTube. Swindon voted 54.7% to leave.

Inquitus

Ofc the Brexit fundamentalists get right into claiming it's nothing to do with Brexit! To be fair he gets slated in the comments, hardly a good look, defending Brexit and not giving a shít about the 2500 people who will directly lose their jobs and the 1000's of others indirectly impacted.

https://twitter.com/JustinTomlinson/status/1097507582820995072

Panrich

road_high wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36616088
Swindon voted 55% Brexit. You can bet your nelly large numbers in Honda and related industries did indeed vote for brexit!

The sympathy has to be limited in the face of a leave vote spurred on by the likes of Tomlinson and Gray.

It's sad in a way though to see so many jobs lost but what were they thinking?

Could this be a rallying point for remain MPs to rally around in the HOC. If a few more companies make similar announcements in the coming days, there might be a turnaround in public opinion that has stayed stubbornly static since the referendum.

Call me Al

rivegauche wrote: »

I doubt many people in the Honda plant were voting for BREXIT. They would been aware that they are in competition with the world for their jobs.

@57% they themselves may or may not have, but you can bet your bottom dollar that most of their spouses, parents, grandparents, brothers, sisters and neighbours likely did.

Panrich

rivegauche wrote: »

No I don't believe the Honda employees are in that 55% majority. The senior citizens who still expect their pensions and NHS to be paid for would have been the ones who did it.
Justin Tomlinson MP is in a constituency with 80000 electorate.
A lot of people who won't be living long to suffer the consequences of their actions decide the fate of others.

There was an interview a while back with an Airbus employee who was now worried about his job even though he voted leave. Amazingly he still thinks leave was the correct option. I'll try to find the link and post it here.

listermint

rivegauche wrote: »

No I don't believe the Honda employees are in that 55% majority. The senior citizens who still expect their pensions and NHS to be paid for would have been the ones who did it.
Justin Tomlinson MP is in a constituency with 80000 electorate.
A lot of people who won't be living long to suffer the consequences of their actions decide the fate of others.

Sorry, but you are wrong.

Exhibit A

This guys family business operating for 30+ years which 'solely' relies on import of Flowers from the continent voted......drum roll.... to Leave! And as per the video he seems as if he is on the fence if it was a good decision or not.

Your assertion that Honda workers were smarter than this guy in their votes doesnt stack up

road_high

rivegauche wrote: »

No I don't believe the Honda employees are in that 55% majority. The senior citizens who still expect their pensions and NHS to be paid for would have been the ones who did it.
Justin Tomlinson MP is in a constituency with 80000 electorate.
A lot of people who won't be living long to suffer the consequences of their actions decide the fate of others.

Might not be a majority of them ( you’d imagine they can’t all be that thick alright). But you can bet a fair handful of them did vote to leave

Akrasia

Seth Brundle wrote: »

SKY article on as-yet unanounced Honda closure - Honda to stun ministers with closure of Swindon factory

The collapse of the UK car industry is gaining momentum and it will have a snowball effect. Industry likes to cluster in regions that have the suppliers, the trained staff, experienced planners and logistics networks to support their operations.

There are lots of brexiteers who don't care about blue collar industrial employment, they are the masters of the universe, and can make more profit shifting decimal places around on balance sheets and hedge funds, but the city of London is not immune from this kind of cascading collapse either. If the UK loses it's status as a global leader in financial services, then what else do they really have to fall back on? Fishing?

Leroy42

Jebus, he states that this is about his family, his house his business. Did you not think of those when voting?

No not really! So he basically just took a giant gamble.

But as much as he attracts my scorn, in reality he was lied to, over many years, by the media, Johnson, Farage, JRM and many others.

Panrich

Panrich wrote: »

There was an interview a while back with an Airbus employee who was now worried about his job even though he voted leave. Amazingly he still thinks leave was the correct option. I'll try to find the link and post it here.

And here it is. You can never underestimate the propensity for people to take irrational positions around Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/22/broughton-the-town-in-fear-after-brexit-warning-by-airbus

At the factory gates, David Lawless, 34, was just clocking off the morning shift as a Beluga aircraft took off, heading for the company’s headquarters in Toulouse, France.

He said the news came as a shock and there had been a mixed reaction from his colleagues. “A lot of people are brushing it off and saying it won’t happen, it’s just talk, but the reality is companies are folding before Brexit has even happened. I don’t know what is going to happen here,” said Lawless. “We just need to try and stick together and hope that the government will fight for us.”

Lawless voted leave in the EU referendum but said he did not regret his decision.“I was in two minds. I wanted to leave but obviously a lot of people were asking questions before about if we were to leave, how it would affect us,” he said.

“People were saying it would never affect us here because it’s too big a company. I’m still happy I voted for it but I thought we had more of a hold and a footing here in Broughton.”

Akrasia

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Honda's announcement sits with previous announcements in that space and the weekly reports of assets being moved from the UK to Dublin or other places in the EU. And all of this fits the timelines and narrative we've been working with. Weeks ahead of No Deal with nothing agreed, businesses are starting to kick contingency planning into gear in ways that are tangible and visible to the public. Of course Brexit has been having an effect before this point, but it manifested as delayed / diverted investment decisions or general inertia. We're now moving into the next phase for larger corporations. Small and medium businesses may not have the luxury, and they'll end up reacting post March 30 rather than making their moves ahead of time.

This is why I think Brexit will be cancelled at the last minute. We're going to have 4 weeks of constant announcements of investment fleeing and factories closing, and then in the 2 weeks before brexit, if there's still no sign of a deal, the first consumers will start panic buying food and fuel and medicines.

When the supermarket shelves are empty of nappies and baby formula, and pharmacists are on the radio saying they couldn't fill a prescription for a seriously sick child because the depot has run out of supplies, and there are marches on the streets from people from every party demanding that the UK does not crash out without a deal...

They'll try to extend A50 but they'll have run out of time and there will be absolutely no good faith left within the EU to extend the deadline so the only choice will be to crash out or cancel A50

I expect a 2nd referendum to still be held, or at least announced, but it would be in the circumstance of Article 50 having already been withdrawn and the question will be whether to go down this sh1tshow for a 2nd time or just leave things the way they are.

EKRIUQ

Watching Sky now, looks like this has nothing to do with Brexit. (Honda Closure) Whole range of factors, EU trade deal with Japan, Honda are also closing their Turkish factory, Diesel is the issue, Electric cars are at fault but to be fair eventually he said Brexit is not helping but that doesn't mean it had anything to do with it.

Boris and Teresa, how is that "**** Business" strategy working out?

Calina

Revoking article 50 will not undo the damage. Highly unlikely given the monumental of political stability in the UK, the polarisation, that the Hondas and Nissans will unpick hard decisions. The time to revoke must have been 3 months ago at the latest.

Bit cynical

An extension is more likely than a revocation imo.

Call me Al

EKRIUQ wrote: »

Watching Sky now, looks like this has nothing to do with Brexit. (Honda Closure) Whole range of factors, EU trade deal with Japan, Honda are also closing their Turkish factory, Diesel is the issue, Electric cars are at fault but to be fair eventually he said Brexit is not helping but that doesn't mean it had anything to do with it.

Boris and Teresa, how is that "**** Business" strategy working out?

Who is saying this?
Whatever hope Swindon had wrt keeping the plant open, in competition with the economics of consolidation of production back to Japan, whilst in the EU (with zero tariffs and a single market), they realistically had no hope outside of the EU.

Leroy42

Brexit is not helping! And yet you somehow followed that line up with it doesn't mean it had anything to do with it.

Even if people do believe in this stories that none or little of this can can attributed with Brexit, where are the positive stories.

WHy is JRM not opening up new offices in London to deal with the increase in business? Why are the new industries looking to open up.

At best, UK is looking at a lost decade before the new economy based on new trade deals starts to deliver.

Whi pays the price for this lost time?

lawred2

Bit cynical wrote: »

An extension is more likely than a revocation imo.

As it stands currently - why would the EU agree to that?

Akrasia

Deleted User wrote: »

I still consider my bet that Article 50 be withdrawn to be fairly ok. Less likely than it felt a month ago, but perhaps possible.

Lots of the Betting sites don't even have this as an option on their brexit pages, but Betfair have it at 11/2 for A50 to be revoked

EdgeCase

The problem is that businesses don't and can't work to the whims of politicians and tabloid headlines. Decisions have already been made and would be irrevocable in most large businesses at this stage.

You're looking at an inevitable recession in the UK and a long period of trying to reestablish economic credibility again. You can't just pull the rug out from under business and expect no reaction. Ultimately these organisations are responsible to their shareholders and have to take decisions that avoid them incurring huge financial losses and endanger their future.

They are cold, hard, apolitical decisions.

Cancelling it might limit the damage a bit, but it's all a bit late in the day.

VinLieger

rivegauche wrote: »

No I don't believe the Honda employees are in that 55% majority. The senior citizens who still expect their pensions and NHS to be paid for would have been the ones who did it.
Justin Tomlinson MP is in a constituency with 80000 electorate.
A lot of people who won't be living long to suffer the consequences of their actions decide the fate of others.

You have no way of knowing that, indeed its very likely that 55% of the employees voted for brexit.


Theres been numerous interviews since 2016 in Sunderland where employees of Nissan and their families are on the record of having voted for brexit and having no remorse whatsoever.

Akrasia

CelticRambler wrote: »

Parliament can vote for the reintroduction of the stegosaurus to every nature reserve in England, and make it a binding resolution. So what? The EU cannot agree to nothingness. If there is no deal put forward by the UK and agreed by the EU27 and the HoC within 39 days, no amount of binding resolutions are going to change that.

The binding resolution would be binding on the UK government, not on the EU27. So if they get to the 29th of march with no extension or no deal, the only thing they could do to comply with the law would be to vote to revoke A50

Of course, it's not really 'binding' then because the UK parliament cannot vote to bind itself to vote a certain way in a future vote. The only way a vote today to 'guarantee' no 'No Deal' crash out could actually work, would be if there was a clause included in the motion that if other circumstances don't arise before 29th of March, Article 50 would automatically be revoked before the deadline of 11pm March 29 2019

RobMc59

EKRIUQ wrote: »

Watching Sky now, looks like this has nothing to do with Brexit. (Honda Closure) Whole range of factors, EU trade deal with Japan, Honda are also closing their Turkish factory, Diesel is the issue, Electric cars are at fault but to be fair eventually he said Brexit is not helping but that doesn't mean it had anything to do with it.

Boris and Teresa, how is that "**** Business" strategy working out?

You are correct-even if this is partly to do with Brexit -why would Honda relocate to the EU when they've just signed a lovely trade agreement with the EU so its low or no tariffs on Japanese built cars.they've taken the grants from the UK and are now leaving and they've got a cozy little trade agreement with the EU-now that's having your cake and eating it!

lawred2

RobMc59 wrote: »

You are correct-even if this is partly to do with Brexit -why would Honda relocate to the EU when they've just signed a lovely trade agreement with the EU so its low or no tariffs on Japanese built cars.they've taken the grants from the UK and are now leaving and they've got a cozy little trade agreement with the EU-now that's having your cake and eating it!

Indeed, why would they take on the cost of a new EU factory somewhere else in Europe!

However they did have a functioning one in Britain. But it's long term feasibility has been undermined by Brexit and the chaotic political climate in Britain.

Brexit has forced the issue here for Honda.

Not setting up a factory somewhere else in Europe is not evidence that this decision is not about Brexit.

road_high

RobMc59 wrote: »

You are correct-even if this is partly to do with Brexit -why would Honda relocate to the EU when they've just signed a lovely trade agreement with the EU so its low or no tariffs on Japanese built cars.they've taken the grants from the UK and are now leaving and they've got a cozy little trade agreement with the EU-now that's having your cake and eating it!

They would invested a fortune in that plant and had a supply chain built up. They absolutely didn’t take this decision lightly and Brexit was likely one of the factors involved. The potential imposition of tariffs vs no tariffs

bob mcbob

I came across this, it is a parliamentary report into the effect Brexit will have on food. It is really really scary stuff -

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldeucom/129/129.pdf

They say society is only a couple of days without food away from breakdown. We may find out by the end of March.

If an agreement cannot be negotiated, Brexit is likely to result in an average tariff on food imports of 22%. While this would not equate to a 22% increase in food prices for consumers, there can be no doubt that prices paid at the checkout would rise. To counteract this the Government could cut tariffs on all food imports, EU and non-EU, but this would pose a serious risk of undermining UK food producers who could not compete on price.

A study by the Food Standards Agency found that one in five households are already experiencing, or are on the margins of, food insecurity.1 Any increase in food prices as a result of Brexit will add to this insecurity. We also heard concerns from witnesses about the impact on nutrition: with 40% of vegetables and 37% of fruit sold in the UK coming from the EU, these types of food may be particularly affected by Brexit. The Government’s stated post-Brexit objectives, both that UK food and farming should be exemplars of high-quality production and that the UK’s trade strategy should seek lower prices for consumers, risk exacerbating existing differences in food consumption. Those who can afford it will be able to buy high-quality local produce. Those who cannot afford that option may well base their diets on cheaper, imported food, that witnesses were concerned could be produced to lower standards to keep costs down.