Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Akrasia

Quin_Dub wrote: »

So , every single announcement in the last few weeks/months where the companies have explicitly said "It's because of Brexit" or at least "It's because of the uncertainty in the UK right now" is not actually for those reasons at all - It's because of "global stuff" ??

Has there been a single announcement from any company in the UK where they have said " We're expanding our business because of Brexit" ?

The Fridge importation industry is booming. Matt Hancock is the worlds leading Fridge Magnate

Also, anyone who owns warehouse space in the UK is probably raking it in now given that so many companies will need to store stockpiles of raw materials and parts to mitigate against disruption to logistics following brexit.

RobMc59

road_high wrote: »

They would invested a fortune in that plant and had a supply chain built up. They absolutely didn’t take this decision lightly and Brexit was likely one of the factors involved. The potential imposition of tariffs vs no tariffs

We will probably never know but the EU-Japanese trade agreement would surely make it more attractive to Japan to manufacture in its own country as there's no need to have plants in the EU to bypass tariffs.
Ironically the EU is a victim of the exact problems it says the UK will encounter when it enters trade agreements with the likes of Japan,China and the US.

First Up

Yes, both tariffs and supply chain disruption when manufacturing in the UK and then tariffs when supplying EU markets from the UK versus tariff free access from Japan.

An easy decision and both factors directly impacted by Brexit.

Call me Al

RobMc59 wrote: »

We will probably never know but the EU-Japanese trade agreement would surely make it more attractive to Japan to manufacture in its own country as there's no need to have plants in the EU to bypass tariffs.
Ironically the EU is a victim of the exact problems it says the UK will encounter when it enters trade agreements with the likes of Japan,China and the US.

Extrapolating this further, clearly the UK domestic market (Brexiteers keep telling us they've the 5th biggest economy in the world), isn't significant enough in and of itself to warrant a manufacturing hub of its own.
That does not bode well.

breatheme

RobMc59 wrote: »

We will probably never know but the EU-Japanese trade agreement would surely make it more attractive to Japan to manufacture in its own country as there's no need to have plants in the EU to bypass tariffs.
Ironically the EU is a victim of the exact problems it says the UK will encounter when it enters trade agreements with the likes of Japan,China and the US.

True. But that's why governments take a long time negotiating FTAs. They want to give and take as much as they can while protecting both of their internal producers.

But one does not take the decision to close a fully functioning plant likely.

Tell me how

rivegauche wrote: »

I doubt many people in the Honda plant were voting for BREXIT. They would been aware that they are in competition with the world for their jobs.

This is the bizarre reality of Brexit. Many of the areas which are losing car jobs were heavily in favour of leaving. They interviewed workers at a plant in Wales some week ago which announced job cuts citing Brexit. Some of the workers, at the gate, said, "What can you do, the world economy is changing"

It is these people, who will suffer because of Brexit, who are being referred to by the arch Brexiteers who will not suffer because of Brexit that their vote must be respected.

It is as confusing as the leader (who wants to remain) Theresa May, heading the conservatives (who want to leave) while Labour (who want to remain) are headed by Corbyn (who wants to leave).

Akrasia

Bit cynical wrote: »

An extension is more likely than a revocation imo.

EU elections in May. An extension to A50 really disrupts this and causes all kinds of problems for the next EU parliament. The EU27 need to unanimously agree to an extension. The only way there will be an extension is if Theresa May completely changes her approach, removes a whole load of her 'Red Lines' and puts forward a credible pathway towards getting a deal passed by her parliament... Is that really likely to happen in the next 2 weeks?

She's never going to get her own party to vote for anything she brings forward, she would need support from other parties, without huge changes to the deal, Labour aren't gonna vote for her.

Enzokk

RobMc59 wrote: »

We will probably never know but the EU-Japanese trade agreement would surely make it more attractive to Japan to manufacture in its own country as there's no need to have plants in the EU to bypass tariffs.
Ironically the EU is a victim of the exact problems it says the UK will encounter when it enters trade agreements with the likes of Japan,China and the US.

You have to wonder what the benefits are in producing products in the single market vs shipping them half way across the world. I would guess for Honda the potential tariffs in the event of a no-deal would be more than just shifting production to an existing factory. We will not know if they would have rather shifted their production to another EU factory as their only factory was in the UK in the EU.

Either way it seems that all companies bet that the UK will be their diesel stronghold in the EU and this is why they are having to cut production or expansion plans. Bad luck for the UK? Or with Brexit the decision is made easier?

Christy42

Is it just me or do there seem to be lots of companies relocating jobs/capital/hqs from the UK in the run up to Brexit none of which seem to have anything to do with Brexit according to some.

The UK must have f'd up something else horribly to cause all this if it has nothing to do with Brexit.

First Up

Christy42 wrote:

Is it just me or do there seem to be lots of companies relocating jobs/capital/hqs from the UK in the run up to Brexit none of which seem to have anything to do with Brexit according to some.

Its a bit like ignoring the weather forecast and going out without an umbrella.

That doesn't make it rain but it leaves you in a much worse situation if it does.

Tell me how

Christy42 wrote: »

Is it just me or do there seem to be lots of companies relocating jobs/capital/hqs from the UK in the run up to Brexit none of which seem to have anything to do with Brexit according to some.

The UK must have f'd up something else horribly to cause all this if it has nothing to do with Brexit.

I don't think that there are any companies who export outside of the UK (either in goods or services) or those who still trade within the UK but with imported materials or ingredients who can definitively say that Brexit is not going to impact them whatsoever at this point.

That being said, I bet that some companies have used the confusion to make decisions which might have been more difficult to make outside of Brexit, down sizing, closing branch offices, relocating etc, these things always have happened on some scale, I wouldn't be surprised if some are being blamed on Brexit even though it may have been done anyway.

RobMc59

Christy42 wrote: »

Is it just me or do there seem to be lots of companies relocating jobs/capital/hqs from the UK in the run up to Brexit none of which seem to have anything to do with Brexit according to some.

The UK must have f'd up something else horribly to cause all this if it has nothing to do with Brexit.

Who knows-the fact the EU and Japan signed off a trade agreement in the beginning of February, then 2 days later there are rumblings from Nissan and 2 weeks after that there is honda moving back to Japan has nothing to do with the EU Japanese trade deal which removes tariffs...

Podge_irl

RobMc59 wrote: »

Who knows-the fact the EU and Japan signed off a trade agreement in the beginning of February, then 2 days later there are rumblings from Nissan and 2 weeks after that there is honda moving back to Japan has nothing to do with the EU Japanese trade deal which removes tariffs...

It probably makes it easier to move production back to Japan rather than to move it to e.g. Germany. If you have to move either way, you may as well move production back local. But if you can produce locally with 0 tariff or abroad with 10% tariff then it is an easy choice. It is impossible to tease out the details of the decision though.

Imreoir2

RobMc59 wrote: »

Who knows-the fact the EU and Japan signed off a trade agreement in the beginning of February, then 2 days later there are rumblings from Nissan and 2 weeks after that there is honda moving back to Japan has nothing to do with the EU Japanese trade deal which removes tariffs...

I seriously doubt that Honda would simply walk away from the investment it has made in the UK in the absence of Brexit. It is possible that the EU/Japan trade deal would have seen future investment in their UK manafacturing base decline, or maybe not. Such a drastic decision is almost certanly directly related to Brexit and the UK becoming an unsafe and unstable country for investments.

jm08

RobMc59 wrote: »

We will probably never know but the EU-Japanese trade agreement would surely make it more attractive to Japan to manufacture in its own country as there's no need to have plants in the EU to bypass tariffs.
Ironically the EU is a victim of the exact problems it says the UK will encounter when it enters trade agreements with the likes of Japan,China and the US.

There are gains for other industries though - for example, the Japanese market is opening up to agric products. I also think that cars will continue to be assembled in Europe as transport costs would be too much from Japan.

Folkstonian

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I seriously doubt that Honda would simply walk away from the investment it has made in the UK in the absence of Brexit. It is possible that the EU/Japan trade deal would have seen future investment in their UK manafacturing base decline, or maybe not. Such a drastic decision is almost certanly directly related to Brexit and the UK becoming an unsafe and unstable country for investments.

I think ultimately, on this occasion, it really is quite simple. The EU signs a big trade deal with Japan which abolishes import tariffs on Japanese vehicles into the European market overnight.

Japanese car makers subsequently decide to build all their cars in Japan and import them to the EU tariff free.

I wonder, given the amount of time this deal has been on the cards, who it was on the EU that ultimately made the decision to do the legs of british employees of big Japanese car builders, and maybe more importantly, why nobody representing Britain in the EU kicked up a fuss.

Podge_irl

Folkstonian wrote: »

I think ultimately, on this occasion, it really is quite simple. The EU signs a big trade deal with Japan which abolishes import tariffs on Japanese vehicles into the European market overnight.

Japanese car makers subsequently decide to build all their cars in Japan and import them to the EU tariff free.

I wonder, given the amount of time this deal has been on the cards, who it was on the EU that ultimately made the decision to do the legs of british employees of big Japanese car builders, and maybe more importantly, why nobody representing Britain in the EU kicked up a fuss.

No, it is not that simple. You completely ignored the potential (and increasingly likely) tariff on their imports into the EU if they stayed where they are. The incentive to move operations and the cost that inevitably entails would be a lot lower if it was a mere status quo change. It isn't though, moving production back to Japan could now actually save money thanks to Brexit.

Enzokk

Folkstonian wrote: »

I think ultimately, on this occasion, it really is quite simple. The EU signs a big trade deal with Japan which abolishes import tariffs on Japanese vehicles into the European market overnight.

Japanese car makers subsequently decide to build all their cars in Japan and import them to the EU tariff free.

I wonder, given the amount of time this deal has been on the cards, who it was on the EU that ultimately made the decision to do the legs of british employees of big Japanese car builders, and maybe more importantly, why nobody representing Britain in the EU kicked up a fuss.

What do you think the transport cost is for cars from Japan to Europe? How long does it take to be transported as well?

Junkyard Tom

RobMc59 wrote: »

Who knows-the fact the EU and Japan signed off a trade agreement in the beginning of February, then 2 days later there are rumblings from Nissan and 2 weeks after that there is honda moving back to Japan has nothing to do with the EU Japanese trade deal which removes tariffs...

I'm guessing that the British were intimately involved in crafting this EU-Japan trade deal and must have concluded that it posed no appreciable risk to their Japanese auto-manufacturing multinationals.

Imreoir2

Folkstonian wrote: »

I think ultimately, on this occasion, it really is quite simple. The EU signs a big trade deal with Japan which abolishes import tariffs on Japanese vehicles into the European market overnight.

Japanese car makers subsequently decide to build all their cars in Japan and import them to the EU tariff free.

I wonder, given the amount of time this deal has been on the cards, who it was on the EU that ultimately made the decision to do the legs of british employees of big Japanese car builders, and maybe more importantly, why nobody representing Britain in the EU kicked up a fuss.

I guess we will have to wait and see how many Japanese car manafacturing plants based inside the EU27 announce they are closing up shop over the next few weeks. It would be rather challenging for your theory if the plants in the UK close or are downsized as a result of the EU/Japan deal while those remaining inside the Single Market are not.

Water John

Wouldn't know transport cost but ship on the sea about 5 weeks.

woohoo!!!

lawred2 wrote: »

Bit cynical wrote: »

An extension is more likely than a revocation imo.

As it stands currently - why would the EU agree to that?

Indeed. UK to EU:

Hi, we'd like a time extension so we can have several more months of domestic procrastination, talking in circles and trying to annoy you into submission to drop the backstop, and thereafter we'll find other stuff we don't like.

EU: umm no thanks, the past two and a half years have seemed like a life time.

listermint

Folkstonian wrote: »

I think ultimately, on this occasion, it really is quite simple. The EU signs a big trade deal with Japan which abolishes import tariffs on Japanese vehicles into the European market overnight.

Japanese car makers subsequently decide to build all their cars in Japan and import them to the EU tariff free.

I wonder, given the amount of time this deal has been on the cards, who it was on the EU that ultimately made the decision to do the legs of british employees of big Japanese car builders, and maybe more importantly, why nobody representing Britain in the EU kicked up a fuss.

They didn't need to as they had market access. They don't anymore meaning tariffs.

Basically everything to do with brexit .

But hey project fear aye.... Isn't this all Europe's fault. Perhaps it was Guy and junker stepping out of line mouthing off that caused it.

Nothing to do with fairytale plans of being in the market but out of the market at the same time


Wooo waves brexit flag..... What was that poll again were brexiteers said they'd be more than happy for family members to lose their jobs to secure brexit. Well here it is . The coal face.

Nody

Water John wrote: »

Wouldn't know transport cost but ship on the sea about 5 weeks.

On the top of my head for a 40" container you'd probably look around 1k USD +/- but bulk delivery obviously cheaper. Note that would be port to port only; need to add in the ends on each side on top of that.

brickster69

Folkstonian wrote: »

I think ultimately, on this occasion, it really is quite simple. The EU signs a big trade deal with Japan which abolishes import tariffs on Japanese vehicles into the European market overnight.

Japanese car makers subsequently decide to build all their cars in Japan and import them to the EU tariff free.

I wonder, given the amount of time this deal has been on the cards, who it was on the EU that ultimately made the decision to do the legs of british employees of big Japanese car builders, and maybe more importantly, why nobody representing Britain in the EU kicked up a fuss.

They will not be exporting tariff free to the EU. It is to be phased into 0% over 7 years. Year one starts at 8.8%, similar with lots of other products.

Honda will be producing mainly from Thailand due to wages being 1/8 of Europes. That's the way it seems to be going unfortunately.

boggerman1

It's all project fear.sure they're great Britain and everyone needs to deal with them .still astonishing to see Tory mps saying the closure of Honda is nothing to do with brexit.its diesel,unicorns and whatever you might swallow

listermint

Nody wrote: »

On the top of my head for a 40" container you'd probably look around 1k USD +/- but bulk delivery obviously cheaper. Note that would be port to port only; need to add in the ends on each side on top of that.

These don't come on containers. They are specialised vehicle transporters.

RobMc59

listermint wrote: »

They didn't need to as they had market access. They don't anymore meaning tariffs.

Basically everything to do with brexit .

But hey project fear aye.... Isn't this all Europe's fault. Perhaps it was Guy and junker stepping out of line mouthing off that caused it.

Nothing to do with fairytale plans of being in the market but out of the market at the same time


Wooo waves brexit flag..... What was that poll again were brexiteers said they'd be more than happy for family members to lose their jobs to secure brexit. Well here it is . The coal face.

Hindsight is a great thing-there are undoubtedly people in the UK who regret brexit decisions which as you say is tough but self inflicted.Perhaps the UK might learn from the EU`s trade deal with Japan-what exactly is the advantage to the EU?The advantages for Japan are obvious as we can now see.

Every so often I see the amount of time remaining left and am in disbelief that the idiocy is continuing.
However over the last few days I hate to admit I've been idly daydreaming and thinking about interesting it's going to be to watch a society go down the drain. There's a certain amount of Schadenfraude involved and I'm not proud of it but it looks like it could be an event for the ages.

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

Every so often I see the amount of time remaining left and am in disbelief that the idiocy is continuing.
However over the last few days I hate to admit I've been idly daydreaming and thinking about interesting it's going to be to watch a society go down the drain. There's a certain amount of Schadenfraude involved and I'm not proud of it but it looks like it could be an event for the ages.

We could be collateral damage. The image from Lord of the Rings of the Balrog reaching up to grab Gandalf as it plummeted to its death springs to mind.