Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Junkyard Tom

brickster69 wrote: »

Honda will be producing mainly from Thailand due to wages being 1/8 of Europes.

I can't imagine the EU agreeing to undercut its own indigenous auto industry by allowing the Japanese to stamp 'Made In Japan' on Thai stuff and sell it into the EU.

SimonTemplar

Deleted User wrote: »

Every so often I see the amount of time remaining left and am in disbelief that the idiocy is continuing.
However over the last few days I hate to admit I've been idly daydreaming and thinking about interesting it's going to be to watch a society go down the drain. There's a certain amount of Schadenfraude involved and I'm not proud of it but it looks like it could be an event for the ages.

I have no desire to see the UK suffer. Aside from how closely Ireland's economy is linked to the UK, I like the UK a lot, came close to moving there a few times, love visiting the place, some of my good friends are from there and despite the ref result, a vast majority of them are decent people.



Everyone makes mistakes, and I suppose that goes for countries too. The problem is that May initially chose the harshest possible interpretation of the result, followed by unreasonable red lines, and she is now stuck at a position that is borderline delusional. This is made worse by both the Tories and labour putting party before country. And all this is preventing the UK from correcting their mistake.

Folkstonian

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I can't imagine the EU agreeing to undercut its own indigenous auto industry by allowing the Japanese to stamp 'Made In Japan' on Thai stuff and sell it into the EU.

Yeah it’s not true - they are consolidating manufacturing in Japan.

The Honda factory in turkey (inside the CU obviously) is also closing with the vehicles made there also being transferred to japan.

I’m not one for obstinately saying that there are no ill-effects being felt by manufacturers in Britain by us leaving the European Union but in this instance it does look like it’s not a major factor, to me at least

54and56

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Whatever about May's deep and myriad flaws, she didn't hop on a bus to peddle lies to the public to entice them to vote for Economic ruination under the guise of regaining freedom, resources and capital.

True, but why oh why did she put herself, as a remainer, forward for the role of PM when the sole focus of that role for the following 2-3 years at a minimum would be securing a Brexit deal?

With hindsight (I know I know) it's clear that the only candidates who should have been allowed to put their names forward should have been confirmed Brexiteers who had nailed their colours to the mast during the referendum campaign.

If Cameron didn't feel he could stay on as a reaminer to implement Brexit what on earth made TM think she should do it and worse, why did the Tory MP's allow her to secure the role without allowing a Brexit candidate to oppose her?

That decision, combined with TM's disastrous snap election decision have to be two of the worst political moves in the history of politics!!

listermint

Folkstonian wrote: »

Yeah it’s not true - they are consolidating manufacturing in Japan.

The Honda factory in turkey (inside the CU obviously) is also closing with the vehicles made there also being transferred to japan.

I’m not one for obstinately saying that there are no ill-effects being felt by manufacturers in Britain by us leaving the European Union but in this instance it does look like it’s not a major factor, to me at least

And what praytell about all the other vehicle manufacturers then?

This colouring of history has to stop. These tory lies have to stop. It's patently obvious that brexit is the source of these decisions. They simply wouldn't have been taken without it.

Actually the Japanese explicitly warned in 2017 that brexit could result in closures they were very clear about it but we're written of my like minded individuals. Exceptionalism

Tell me how

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

True, but why oh why did she put herself, as a remainer, forward for the role of PM when the sole focus of that role for the following 2-3 years at a minimum would be securing a Brexit deal?

With hindsight (I know I know) it's clear that the only candidates who should have been allowed to put their names forward should have been confirmed Brexiteers who had nailed their colours to the mast during the referendum campaign.

If Cameron didn't feel he could stay on as a reaminer to implement Brexit what on earth made TM think she should do it and worse, why did the Tory MP's allow her to secure the role without allowing a Brexit candidate to oppose her?

That decision, combined with TM's disastrous snap election decision have to be two of the worst political moves in the history of politics!!

We will never know the true answer (and history is written by the ultimate victors) but it is possible that she stepped up out of a duty to uphold the democratic choice by the nation while not allowing the extremists a free reign.

I certainly don't know but the immediate response after Cameron left was that it was Johnsons to lose until he pulled himself out after his cheerleader Gove changed his tune. I think she was motivated honourably more than anyone else in the conversation at the time.

Hurrache

Folkstonian wrote: »

Yeah it’s not true - they are consolidating manufacturing in Japan.

The Honda factory in turkey (inside the CU obviously) is also closing with the vehicles made there also being transferred to japan.

I’m not one for obstinately saying that there are no ill-effects being felt by manufacturers in Britain by us leaving the European Union but in this instance it does look like it’s not a major factor, to me at least

A good thread as to why it is actually Brexit related.
https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1097550055400181760?s=19

Enzokk

listermint wrote: »

And what praytell about all the other vehicle manufacturers then?

This colouring of history has to stop. These tory lies have to stop. It's patently obvious that brexit is the source of these decisions. They simply wouldn't have been taken without it.

I am wondering if they are anticipating that all vehicle sales will stop? Falling diesel sales will be a worry, seeing that they are down to about 30% of sales from 40% (link). Now this varies from manufacturer and model so it seems that it is a perfect storm for the UK at the moment. They seem more invested in diesel production which is in decline and the EU just started their FTA with Japan.

What Brexiters will try want to ignore is that adding Brexit to this mix makes a desperate situation absolutely toxic for jobs. It may not be the sole reason for the job losses, but it didn't help them at all. There is no contingency or incentives that the UK can offer manufacturers to try and keep them in the country, they are busy trying to Brexit and this uncertainty is killing them.

They were warned about uncertainty but stock market, GBP is overvalued, recession didn't happen as advertised, etc.

Kermit.de.frog

Ouch

https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1097502015897378816


I always figured Adam Boulton as a Brexiteer type.

Appears I was wrong.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I always figured Adam Boulton as a Brexiteer type.

Appears I was wrong.

Nah, he's been pretty good on it, most of Sky News have.

fly_agaric

Folkstonian wrote: »

I wonder, given the amount of time this deal has been on the cards, who it was on the EU that ultimately made the decision to do the legs of british employees of big Japanese car builders...

Well, you can guarantee it was the dastardly EU responsible for any job losses in the UK on the run up to the Brexit Freedom Day (likely a devious Paddy bureaucrat plotting somewhere in its bowels).
Never the glorious project. Never the UK electorate or the politicians who represent them. :rolleyes:
It is depressing.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ouch

https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1097502015897378816


I always figured Adam Boulton as a Brexiteer type.

Appears I was wrong.

He has been a good bit more hostile towards the Brexiteers in the last six to nine months.

Andrew Neil - there's an out and out hard Brexiteer and ERG supporter.

Strazdas

fly_agaric wrote: »

Well you can guarantee it was the dastardly EU responsible for any job losses in the UK on the run up to the Brexit Freedom Day (likely a devious Paddy bureaucrat plotting somewhere in its bowels).
Never the glorious project. Never the UK electorate or the politicians who represent them. :rolleyes:

One wonders how long they can keep up the denials though. The Brexit bad news stories are going to start piling up in coming weeks and months.

Folkstonian

Strazdas wrote: »

He has been a good bit more hostile towards the Brexiteers in the last six to nine months.

Andrew Neil - there's an out and out hard Brexiteer and ERG supporter.

I’d love to see some evidence - just one little bit - that would support your claim about Andrew Neil being an ERG supporter

He’s a superb interviewer who gives everyone he interviews a very tough time, no matter their political persuasion or party allegiance

bob mcbob

Folkstonian wrote: »

Yeah it’s not true - they are consolidating manufacturing in Japan.

The Honda factory in turkey (inside the CU obviously) is also closing with the vehicles made there also being transferred to japan.

I’m not one for obstinately saying that there are no ill-effects being felt by manufacturers in Britain by us leaving the European Union but in this instance it does look like it’s not a major factor, to me at least

I think this is a simplistic reading of things. The Turkish plant only produced the sedan version of the Civic and this was produced in relatively small numbers. If you decide to close you main volume plant (Swindon) in Europe then there is no way that the Turkish plant could survive.

Why not read back what Honda has been saying about Brexit since the referendum.

Folkstonian

fly_agaric wrote: »

Well, you can guarantee it was the dastardly EU responsible for any job losses in the UK on the run up to the Brexit Freedom Day (likely a devious Paddy bureaucrat plotting somewhere in its bowels).
Never the glorious project. Never the UK electorate or the politicians who represent them. :rolleyes:
It is depressing.

If you want to make it all about Ireland in your mind, be my guest. My post, however, didn’t make a single reference.

Professor Moriarty

Folkstonian wrote: »

I’d love to see some evidence - just one little bit - that would support your claim about Andrew Neil being an ERG supporter

He’s a superb interviewer who gives everyone he interviews a very tough time, no matter their political persuasion or party allegiance

Neil plays the man, not the ball. His questioning is very personal.

RobMc59

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

We could be collateral damage. The image from Lord of the Rings of the Balrog reaching up to grab Gandalf as it plummeted to its death springs to mind.

I`m assuming you mean Gandalf(Ireland) and the Balrog (UK)?
How about Shelob(EU) and frodo(UK)?:pac:

listermint

Folkstonian wrote: »

I’d love to see some evidence - just one little bit - that would support your claim about Andrew Neil being an ERG supporter

He’s a superb interviewer who gives everyone he interviews a very tough time, no matter their political persuasion or party allegiance

Erm be keeps on turning up in photos consistently with ERG members and many many dodgy business people of questionable russian ties.

He's very much pro ERG. The man has no credibility as a journalist at all.

I'm actually surprised you need to be told this ....

Hurrache

Folkstonian wrote: »

I’d love to see some evidence - just one little bit - that would support your claim about Andrew Neil being an ERG supporter

He’s a superb interviewer who gives everyone he interviews a very tough time, no matter their political persuasion or party allegiance

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Neil plays the man, not the ball. His questioning is very personal.

Carole Cadwalladr may have some input there alright.

Folkstonian

listermint wrote: »

Erm be keeps on turning up in photos consistently with ERG members and many many dodgy business people of questionable russian ties.

He's very much pro ERG. The man has no credibility as a journalist at all.

I'm actually surprised you need to be told this ....

Haha. Okie dokie. Not sure you actually understood what is generally meant by evidence. But I’m no longer fussed so don’t sweat it.

He has huge credibility and commands great respect among peers, viewers and politicians alike.

Are you Owen Jones?

FrancieBrady

Tell me how wrote: »

We will never know the true answer (and history is written by the ultimate victors) but it is possible that she stepped up out of a duty to uphold the democratic choice by the nation while not allowing the extremists a free reign.

I certainly don't know but the immediate response after Cameron left was that it was Johnsons to lose until he pulled himself out after his cheerleader Gove changed his tune. I think she was motivated honourably more than anyone else in the conversation at the time.

She has been disingenuous and duplicitous with her own people, never-mind the EU.
She spoke out of the side of her mouth about being a 'unionist' and then attempted to shaft the northern Ireland version of same.

In short, a good Tory leader.

lawred2

Folkstonian wrote: »

I’d love to see some evidence - just one little bit - that would support your claim about Andrew Neil being an ERG supporter

He’s a superb interviewer who gives everyone he interviews a very tough time, no matter their political persuasion or party allegiance

This is a decent read re Andrew Neil and his editorial 'impartiality'

https://medium.com/@carole_cadwalladr/andrew-neil-brexit-the-bbc-f4a569f6516a

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

Carole Cadwalladr may have some input there alright.

I saw him try to do a number on Boles recently. He basically ignored the issues and tried to discredit him instead.

fly_agaric

Strazdas wrote: »

One wonders how long they can keep up the denials though. The Brexit bad news stories are going to start piling up in coming weeks and months.

As I've said before on the thread, I think it can be kept up indefinitely (with a big % of the Brexit-supporting public).
edit: There will never be any self reflection or reconsideration in light of events (just a slotting of events in their place in the unchanging story ala Folkstonian's post about the EU plotting to get British car workers laid off above).

If Brexit is very damaging, you actually have better conditions for the focus of alot of the anger, confusion and hate on the external enemies who stabbed the UK in the back etc. I recall some of that rhetoric during our own mainly self inflicted financial crisis but it never really took off properly for various reasons. In UK (IMO) perhaps you will have the main political party and alot of the media pushing the narrative of a list of "spoilers" that ruined our Brexit very hard.

Folkstonian wrote:

If you want to make it all about Ireland in your mind, be my guest. My post, however, didn’t make a single reference.

Fair enough. It is not all about Ireland (but we are high up on the Brexiteer's shít list of enemies ruining the project).

Bit cynical

Akrasia wrote: »

Bit cynical wrote: »

An extension is more likely than a revocation imo.

EU elections in May. An extension to A50 really disrupts this and causes all kinds of problems for the next EU parliament. The EU27 need to unanimously agree to an extension. The only way there will be an extension is if Theresa May completely changes her approach, removes a whole load of her 'Red Lines' and puts forward a credible pathway towards getting a deal passed by her parliament... Is that really likely to happen in the next 2 weeks?

She's never going to get her own party to vote for anything she brings forward, she would need support from other parties, without huge changes to the deal, Labour aren't gonna vote for her.

I agree the chances are slim that she will put forward anything agreeable to her party (or to the EU) in the next two weeks or so. However she will still maintain public hope that this is possible whether or not she believes it. Therefore the easiest thing to do is request an extension - put the ball into the EU's court. If the extension is then rejected by the EU it is easier to blame the EU and a no deal scenario begins.

If the EU grants the extension then there is a possibility of a withdrawal of A50 at the end of it but I don't see a withdrawal as likely at the end of the current period.

I agree with the point about the EU elections which make things messy in the event of an extension but overall see an extension as the most likely next step.

Hurrache

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I saw him try to do a number on Boles recently. He basically ignored the issues and tried to discredit him instead.

He can't hide it. I read Carol's evidence previously and this knocks all pretence of impartiality particularly because it comes from Aaron Banks himself.

I was unclear what was motivating Andrew Neil’s repeated attacks on our reporting. This was when I looked into his declared interests. I found that Arron Banks in his memoir of Bad Boys of Brexit wrote that Andrew Neil invited him to attend the Addison Club — a right-wing dining society he founded — where he suggested he might ‘find a fair few in our membership sympathetic to your case and even a few with chequebooks

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

He can't hide it. I read Carol's evidence previously and this knocks all pretence of impartiality particularly because it comes from Aaron Banks himself.

Hmm. Andrew won't be putting that on his CV.

Hurrache

Another for the No **** Javid column

The home secretary, Sajid Javid, has urged his EU counterparts to prepare for the eventuality that current joint policing systems could discontinue on 30 March because of a no-deal Brexit.

The EU and the UK have produced similar contingency plans for no-deal arrangements but Javid has now written to member states appealing for them to “minimise operational disruption” by ensuring measures are in place on time.

He also warns that there is, as yet, no deal in place for sharing of airline passenger data, critical in the fight against criminals and terrorists who flee to another country to escape the law.
..
Steve Peers, professor of EU law and human rights law at the University of Essex, said: “The home secretary’s letter admits what many law enforcement practitioners had warned: leaving the EU without an agreement leads to ‘less efficient’ and more costly methods of cooperation between justice and law enforcement officials.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/18/sajid-javid-warns-eu-counterparts-of-joint-policing-disruption

Steve Peers has more details, such as Javid asking them to use the Interpol system and not Schengen one, as well as the letter itself.
https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1097586499837677568?s=19

A Dub in Glasgo

Hurrache wrote: »

He can't hide it. I read Carol's evidence previously and this knocks all pretence of impartiality particularly because it comes from Aaron Banks himself.

Absolutely

https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/1014035439332790272