Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali

Folkstonian wrote: »

Yeah it’s not true - they are consolidating manufacturing in Japan.

Yes - the EU (when it included the UK) was happy to take such hits as the FTA will benefit other EU sectors (machinery, chemicals, agriculture). The UK really needs a FTA of its own with Japan to offset these losses.

Never fear, the UK has top men on the job!

The Financial Times earlier reported Japan had reacted with dismay to a letter from Fox and foreign minister Jeremy Hunt encouraging it to agree a quick trade deal with Britain as it was interpreted as an accusation of foot-dragging.

Zubeneschamali

I see the FT and the Irish Times mentioning that Australia will fast track a FTA with the UK in the event of a No Deal Brexit. Twitter thread here on why that is nonsense from a former Aussie trade negotiator, saying Australia does not have fast and slow tracks, and the term was added in a headline:



https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1097405052883533826

First Up

NIMAN wrote:

Especially if he is allowed free reign to spout nonsense. Tbh, I wouldn't expect CB to have the intelligence to pull him up on anything anyway.

Free Reign = Eggcorn.

Its Free Rein.

Just so you know.

Hurrache

NIMAN wrote: »

.
Tbh, I wouldn't expect CB to have the intelligence to pull him up on anything anyway.

That comment doesn't reflect reality.

mrbrianj

First Up wrote: »

Free Reign = Eggcorn.

Its Free Rein.

Just so you know.

In Sammy case it may be reign! a hard brexit will, in their minds, cut up the GFA and allow NI to be reigned over again without the input of the Irish.

FrancieBrady

mrbrianj wrote: »

In Sammy case it may be reign! a hard brexit will, in their minds, cut up the GFA and allow NI to be reigned over again without the input of the Irish.

That doesn't make sense as a ploy. If the Tories manage to rid themselves of the DUP then they could find the GFA coming front and central to haunt them , as the UK will still need a trade deal with the EU even if they crash out. And they will be still required to deal with the border from a much weaker position.
Personally I think the DUP are in total disarray and don't know what they are doing.

ath262

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That doesn't make sense as a ploy. If the Tories manage to rid themselves of the DUP then they could find the GFA coming front and central to haunt them , as the UK will still need a trade deal with the EU even if they crash out. And they will be still required to deal with the border from a much weaker position.
Personally I think the DUP are in total disarray and don't know what they are doing.

I think this is the key point that UK politicians appear to have forgotten..

FrancieBrady

ath262 wrote: »

I think this is the key point that UK politicians appear to have forgotten..

I agree. There is a sense that they will 'live happily ever after in independent splendidness' after they get through this phase and that extends to Sammy's delusion that the UK will be in a stronger negotiating position with the EU after a No Deal.

Enzokk

Here is an interesting thread about Honda and closing the Swindon plant.

https://twitter.com/RobinBHarding/status/1097756788588335106

I found this couple of tweets interesting about the EU trade deal with Japan.

https://twitter.com/RobinBHarding/status/1097759754842079232

'The role of the EU-Japan trade deal is interesting. Britain pushed for the earliest possible reduction in EU auto tariffs, believing it would help Japanese assembly plants in the UK. There was some logic to this – if they had access to the EU market. 5/'

'German and French manufacturers always thought Japan would just move assembly home. With the UK outside the EU, the trade deal makes that easy. Past UK policy comes back to bite us. 6/'

So while Brexit was not the main problem, it offered Honda a chance to close the plant. Seems like the company does not like closing factories and yet they took the plunge. Also a little ironic that the UK's own contribution to the EU Japan trade deal was not seen as a positive from Germany and France and could cost more jobs in the long run if the transport costs are not seen as a negative for Japanese manufacturers.

seamus

First Up wrote: »

Free Reign = Eggcorn.

Its Free Rein.

Just so you know.

Huh, TIL.

You can see where the confusion arrives though.

Free reign - like a King, freedom to do and say what you like

Free rein - when a horse's reins are not being held and thus the horse is wandering/galloping unrestricted and undirected.

The latter is undoubtedly a better analog for a loud-mouthed politician though.

---

On Brexit, I find it interesting how much everyone (Irish media included) is downplaying the role of Brexit in the exodus of Japanese car manufacturing. It's down to free trade agreements, market conditions and the diesel scandal, apparently.

Are there are any other countries that Japanese companies are withdrawing from?

First Up

Enzokk wrote:

So while Brexit was not the main problem, it offered Honda a chance to close the plant. Seems like the company does not like closing factories and yet they took the plunge. Also a little ironic that the UK's own contribution to the EU Japan trade deal was not seen as a positive from Germany and France and could cost more jobs in the long run if the transport costs are not seen as a negative for Japanese manufacturers.

Its complicated. The auto industry is in a state of flux worldwide, with diesel on the way out and electric/hybrid growing. All manufacturers are facing massive re-investment as well as supply chain issues.

So its probably the worst time in the last 50 years to be adding further uncertainty around access to auto components and markets.

But that's what Brexit is, so they can deal with consequences.

prawnsambo

Enzokk wrote: »

So while Brexit was not the main problem, it offered Honda a chance to close the plant. Seems like the company does not like closing factories and yet they took the plunge. Also a little ironic that the UK's own contribution to the EU Japan trade deal was not seen as a positive from Germany and France and could cost more jobs in the long run if the transport costs are not seen as a negative for Japanese manufacturers.

There's a bit more to this. According to people who work in Honda, the current model range is about to be replaced. This is a three year process that would have to start this year. Now if you look at the announced closure date, that ties in precisely. Three years from now that model will be EOL and the factory can be wound down with the model range. If they had decided to stay, it would require a large investment by Honda to retool for new models. But in that time, the UK will have left the EU and since the production there splits 50/50 between the US and EU, both of those markets could see increased costs and production uncertainty with loss of JIT and increased tariffs. So even though the EU/Japan FTA has a reducing tariff schedule, these are known well in advance, whereas the UK tariff schedule is not.

In short, brexit makes the decision for them at a time when they have to make one.

Sam Russell

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Even the BBC can no longer deny Brexit is a negative

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47212992



This is what iirks be about BBC nowadays, the nanny tone in that sentence, it means everyone in UK is poorer (15% is not a little btw), just say it, grrrr

The loss of the GBP vs EUR is more like 20% than 15% since 2015.

Losing value through devaluation causes inflation which puts pressure on wages, and therefore growth. Uncertainty also has the same effect, plus deferment of investment and loss of future orders.

Brexit provides plenty of both.

kunst nugget

Weren't a load of premiership footballers requesting that they be paid in euros after the Brexit vote to protect themselves against the collapse in the value of the pound?

L1011

kunst nugget wrote: »

Weren't a load of premiership footballers requesting that they be paid in euros after the Brexit vote to protect themselves against the collapse in the value of the pound?

New footballer contracts since June 2016 are often denominated in € or SFR

Harry Palmr

EU Japan trade deal time line shows that while it was signed off last summer, the final phase (ending a process begun in 2002) started before the Brexit vote was taken (and which of course non one expected to be defeated until it was).

J Mysterio

Labour crisis is deepening it seems.

Really, it's unbelievable that with the UK government facing the biggest crisis UK has seen 'since the war', and making mistake after mistake, it's Labour facing these resignations and threat of a split.

If you can't make hay as an opposition in these circumstances, might as well give up.

Professor Moriarty

J Mysterio wrote: »

Labour crisis is deepening it seems.

Really, it's unbelievable that with the UK government facing the biggest crisis UK has seen 'since the war', and making mistake after mistake, it's Labour facing these resignations and threat of a split.

If you can't make hay as an opposition in these circumstances, might as well give up.

Hunt seizing the day and telling European leaders that Labour can't be trusted because of the defections so they must deal with the Tories. Might be a bit of an own goal when Tory MPs start defecting. As they surely will any day now.

VinLieger

J Mysterio wrote: »

Labour crisis is deepening it seems.

Really, it's unbelievable that with the UK government facing the biggest crisis UK has seen 'since the war', and making mistake after mistake, it's Labour facing these resignations and threat of a split.

If you can't make hay as an opposition in these circumstances, might as well give up.

Corbyn is absolutely the wrong person to be leading the party right now, hes a complete ideologue focused solely on his own agenda for his party whereas right now they need a pragmatist focused on whats best for the country

Hurrache

VinLieger wrote: »

Corbyn is absolutely the wrong person to be leading the party right now, hes a complete ideologue focused solely on his own agenda for his party whereas right now they need a pragmatist focused on whats best for the country

There's a group of hardcore fanatics, as evident in the thread discussing the 7 MPs leaving, that simply either don't believe this, don't want to see the truth or just don't care.

prawnsambo

Harry Palmr wrote: »

EU Japan trade deal time line shows that while it was signed off last summer, the final phase (ending a process begun in 2002) started before the Brexit vote was taken (and which of course non one expected to be defeated until it was).

Actual negotiations started in 2013. That's when the Commission were instructed to start negotiations by the EuCo. It was actually concluded very quickly by EU standards.

Harry Palmr

May and Corbyn are both equally culpable in this regard - party party party. The country hardly rates a thought.

seamus

VinLieger wrote: »

Corbyn is absolutely the wrong person to be leading the party right now, hes a complete ideologue focused solely on his own agenda for his party whereas right now they need a pragmatist focused on whats best for the country

Any hope that the sane people of Britain had that a second referendum would be called, or that Brexit would be cancelled, has been scuppered by the fracturing of Labour. Any faint spark that the opposition would take control and save the UK from suicide, has been extinguished.

They have nobody capable of leading Britain out of this mess. They are literally up the river without a paddle.

VinLieger

seamus wrote: »

Any hope that the sane people of Britain had that a second referendum would be called, or that Brexit would be cancelled, has been scuppered by the fracturing of Labour. Any faint spark that the opposition would take control and save the UK from suicide, has been extinguished.

They have nobody capable of leading Britain out of this mess. They are literally up the river without a paddle.

The split aside its quite evident from his fence sitting position for the last 2 years corbyn never had any intention of pushing for a second referendum or canceling article 50, every move hes made points to a singular strategy of getting the tories to screw the pooch and have the UK fall out of the EU, then corbyn would swoop in on the next election and implement his glorious labour policies without having to worry about the EU causing him issues.


If it turns out he can't even win an election after a no deal exit then i think he has to step down as he has truly failed in every aspect as a leader of the opposition

MrMusician18

Enzokk wrote: »

Here is an interesting thread about Honda and closing the Swindon plant.

https://twitter.com/RobinBHarding/status/1097756788588335106

I found this couple of tweets interesting about the EU trade deal with Japan.

https://twitter.com/RobinBHarding/status/1097759754842079232

'The role of the EU-Japan trade deal is interesting. Britain pushed for the earliest possible reduction in EU auto tariffs, believing it would help Japanese assembly plants in the UK. There was some logic to this – if they had access to the EU market. 5/'

'German and French manufacturers always thought Japan would just move assembly home. With the UK outside the EU, the trade deal makes that easy. Past UK policy comes back to bite us. 6/'

So while Brexit was not the main problem, it offered Honda a chance to close the plant. Seems like the company does not like closing factories and yet they took the plunge. Also a little ironic that the UK's own contribution to the EU Japan trade deal was not seen as a positive from Germany and France and could cost more jobs in the long run if the transport costs are not seen as a negative for Japanese manufacturers.

What's I find interesting about that thread of Harding's is that the telegraph picked post 2, and managed to spin the story as being unrelated to Brexit but about over capacity in Honda.

It's very hard for objective analysis to win out in such an environment.

lawred2

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I wrote about this before

1. Japan have been dragging their feet about EU trade deal for years and years due to auto tarrifs
2. UK votes to leave and Japan realises promises made were lies
3. Japan does an about face and EU<>Japan trade deal is done in record time
4. Japanese plants close down as soon as deal in effect with EU with a month to go to Brexit (about the time it takes a ship to sail)

These closures are 100% the fault of Brexit

Promises made by whom? The UK?

Havockk

lawred2 wrote: »

Promises made by whom? The UK?

Yes, Thatcher promised them access to the EU.

lawred2

Havockk wrote: »

Yes, Thatcher promised them access to the EU.

ah jaysus those weren't lies at the time now to be fair...

I thought there were specific promises made by the UK during the EU/JPN free trade negotiations..

prawnsambo

Havockk wrote: »

Yes, Thatcher promised them access to the EU.

I'm not sure how you can call that a lie. Thatcher is dead and EU membership was alive and kicking on the day she died. Far be it for me to interpret another poster's words, but I suspect that the lie they're referreing to is a lot more recent than Maggie Thatcher's peremiership.

Havockk

seamus wrote: »

Any hope that the sane people of Britain had that a second referendum would be called, or that Brexit would be cancelled, has been scuppered by the fracturing of Labour. Any faint spark that the opposition would take control and save the UK from suicide, has been extinguished.

They have nobody capable of leading Britain out of this mess. They are literally up the river without a paddle.

I mentioned in the other thread... As soon as the hard-line brexit lunatics were allowed to adopt a position that a 2nd referendum was an attack on democracy that idea was dead. In retrospect, that line attack was obvious and should have been prepared for but in the atmosphere of a hostile media it never going to be easy anyway.