Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo

Havockk wrote: »

Well I wasn't the poster who made that assessment. What I am stating, is the fact, that Thatcher made that commitment to Japan on behalf of the UK.

And I absolutely agree that brexit is now the reason that Honda is closing. Is this what you are objecting to?

I think it's pretty clear what I'm objecting to. But for the purpose of clarity it's the charactarisation of what I said as 'semantics'. That the 'lies'* told during the trade talks could somehow apply to somebody who died the year they officially started. You specifically said it was Thatcher who was responsible and I replied that this couldn't possibly be the case. Which you called 'semantics'.

*What the OP said, which I am not necessarily agreeing or disagreeing with.

Hurrache

RobMc59 wrote: »

I imagine as with Irish producers,the British farmers will increase production as required-if Britain has to become more self sufficient it will,just as Ireland will as we are constantly being told on this forum.

They won't have much success on many things purely because of geographical reasons. Plus the fact Ireland had already implemented plans long ago, the UK haven't. And the kicker, we're in a trading block where we can import anything we can't produce ourselves tariff free.

Enzokk

Hurrache wrote: »

So protectionism kicking in, although the main result of this seems to be just increasing the price of foodstuffs for people in the UK, unless they somehow manage to produce everything they need in the UK already.
https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1097819350759817216

That surely means that they will put up infrastructure to check goods, so they just have to decide where those will be made. Where is that "promise" not to do that from the UK?

Imreoir2 wrote: »

No no no, its moblie phones and GPS, obviously.

Drones, you forgot the drones.

prawnsambo

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I'm fairly sure May herself made promisses to Nissan regarding access and state support to compensate for any dificulties.

Thank you. Yes. There was a 'secret' letter written to them, which ultimately was published in the FT. Nissan were specifically given guarantees as well as a payment of £80 million to offset the costs associated with brexit.

Havockk

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think it's pretty clear what I'm objecting to. But for the purpose of clarity it's the charactarisation of what I said as 'semantics'. That the 'lies'* told during the trade talks could somehow apply to somebody who died the year they officially started. You specifically said it was Thatcher who was responsible and I replied that this couldn't possibly be the case. Which you called 'semantics'.

*What the OP said, which I am not necessarily agreeing or disagreeing with.

So semantics?

Hurrache

Enzokk wrote: »

That surely means that they will put up infrastructure to check goods, so they just have to decide where those will be made. Where is that "promise" not to do that from the UK?

We know they haven't planned that far ahead.

Leroy42

What is the plan for UK financial services in a crash out? I hear a lot of talk about tariffs and quotas but nothing, it seems, in relation to FS.

London is such a major contributor to the UK economy (for good or ill) yet there seems very little discussion about it.

I am not too aware of the industry, so excuse me for asking what may well be an easy question, but is a Hard Brexit expected to make any material difference to this area of the UK economy. I know about the movements of assets but even that seems to be shrugged off so leaves me thinking that overall there might not be much impact.

I guess my main point is that as far as I can see there is very little conversation about it in the UK, either in HoC or the media.

lawred2

Enzokk wrote: »

That surely means that they will put up infrastructure to check goods, so they just have to decide where those will be made. Where is that "promise" not to do that from the UK?




Drones, you forgot the drones.

well everyone is going to self declare at the point of shipping too.

including smugglers...

Charles Babbage

murphaph wrote: »

I assume May also lied to them much more recently.

The set of people May lied to recently is very large.

But lies were there from the start of the campaign

Imreoir2

RobMc59 wrote: »

I imagine as with Irish producers,the British farmers will increase production as required-if Britain has to become more self sufficient it will,just as Ireland will as we are constantly being told on this forum.

Without seasonal migrant labour from the EU, which has been a staple of UK agri business for years, who exactally is going to take on this additional workload?

prawnsambo

Leroy42 wrote: »

What is the plan for UK financial services in a crash out? I hear a lot of talk about tariffs and quotas but nothing, it seems, in relation to FS.

London is such a major contributor to the UK economy (for good or ill) yet there seems very little discussion about it.

I am not too aware of the industry, so excuse me for asking what may well be an easy question, but is a Hard Brexit expected to make any material difference to this area of the UK economy. I know about the movements of assets but even that seems to be shrugged off so leaves me thinking that overall there might not be much impact.

I guess my main point is that as far as I can see there is very little conversation about it in the UK, either in HoC or the media.

Financial services in the forms that have developed in London over the last few decades are pretty much toast. There will be no selling of financial services into the EU post brexit, hence the rush of capital out of the country. Other, more... Singaporean style FS might be a very different matter. I suspect that many hard brexiters are banking on this happening. Pun intended.

Imreoir2

Leroy42 wrote: »

What is the plan for UK financial services in a crash out? I hear a lot of talk about tariffs and quotas but nothing, it seems, in relation to FS.

London is such a major contributor to the UK economy (for good or ill) yet there seems very little discussion about it.

I am not too aware of the industry, so excuse me for asking what may well be an easy question, but is a Hard Brexit expected to make any material difference to this area of the UK economy. I know about the movements of assets but even that seems to be shrugged off so leaves me thinking that overall there might not be much impact.

I guess my main point is that as far as I can see there is very little conversation about it in the UK, either in HoC or the media.

I am in a similar boat to yourself, so hopefully someone with a little more understanding of the issue will come along and save us from groping in the darkness, but as far as I am aware the EU has said that it will allow continiued access for UK based FS for a period of time after Brexit on a unilateral basis as part of its measures to mitigate the impact of a no-deal Brexit on the EU.

Fionn1952

Not terribly important, but one thing I've noticed is that no matter whether folk take a remain or a leave position, everyone seems sure that the BBC coverage is biased against their side.

I've repeatedly noticed people comment on here about how the BBC is playing down Brexit impact in their writing, but on every single HYS on there, the comments are full of people accusing BBC of propagating the so called, 'project fear'.....and these are largely the comments with the greatest number of up votes.

Is this a sign that the BBC maybe isnt as biased as everyone thinks, or is there something fishy going on with comment voting on HYS to suggest a bigger voice exists than in reality?

Hurrache

HYS?

Fionn1952

Hurrache wrote: »

HYS?

'Have your Say', the comments section available on some BBC News articles.

An Ciarraioch

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Not terribly important, but one thing I've noticed is that no matter whether folk take a remain or a leave position, everyone seems sure that the BBC coverage is biased against their side.

I've repeatedly noticed people comment on here about how the BBC is playing down Brexit impact in their writing, but on every single HYS on there, the comments are full of people accusing BBC of propagating the so called, 'project fear'.....and these are largely the comments with the greatest number of up votes.

Is this a sign that the BBC maybe isnt as biased as everyone thinks, or is there something fishy going on with comment voting on HYS to suggest a bigger voice exists than in reality?

Just probably that the same people commenting on Mail and Express articles also do so in the Beeb.

Leroy42

I think it is more nuanced that simply bias.

IMO, the BBC is not biased, it is that they are giving equal weight to both sides when in many cases only one side has an actual argument. They have got so caught up in the idea of 'balance' that they live in fear of the Brexit side whom, as they have little actual detail to their argument, feel that not being given equal credibility shows them up for what they are.

Take QT for example. How many times has Farage been on it? And has he been called up on the numerous nonsense statements he makes?

Have a listen to Brexitcast. They are so focused on putting across the UK view and laying out what might happen (always positive) that they have completely failed to give a proper view of the cliff rushing towards them. I have no issue with them putting across the idea that the EU might cave, that TM's plan might work, but alongside that they should also be putting out the consequences if it doesn't and laying out the massive gamble that TM is undertaking.

RobMc59

Hurrache wrote: »

They won't have much success on many things purely because of geographical reasons. Plus the fact Ireland had already implemented plans long ago, the UK haven't. And the kicker, we're in a trading block where we can import anything we can't produce ourselves tariff free.

So geographical problems will apply to the UK but not Ireland?-I think not.The current set up regarding milk between say Ireland and NI suits both,if the situation changes both will have to adjust output accordingly which will probably be good news for both sets of dairy producers.

road_high

RobMc59 wrote: »

I imagine as with Irish producers,the British farmers will increase production as required-if Britain has to become more self sufficient it will,just as Ireland will as we are constantly being told on this forum.

Do you not think uk farmers are at full production?! Know thing or two about it and they are generally very intensive as it is- so which environmental rules are you going to jettison so they can up it beyond current thresholds?

VinLieger

Dont forget how differently the likes of andrew marr and andrew neil have been treating irish politicians when they are talking to them versus the easy rides theyve been giving the brexiteers and government ministers whenever they have them on

Havockk

road_high wrote: »

Do you not think uk farmers are at full production?! Know thing or two about it and they are generally very intensive as it is- so which environmental rules are you going to jettison so they can up it beyond current thresholds?

Spoke to a large dairy farmer in the North y/day. They are totally in the blind and extremely worried.

listermint

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think it is more nuanced that simply bias.

IMO, the BBC is not biased, it is that they are giving equal weight to both sides when in many cases only one side has an actual argument. They have got so caught up in the idea of 'balance' that they live in fear of the Brexit side whom, as they have little actual detail to their argument, feel that not being given equal credibility shows them up for what they are.

Take QT for example. How many times has Farage been on it? And has he been called up on the numerous nonsense statements he makes?

Have a listen to Brexitcast. They are so focused on putting across the UK view and laying out what might happen (always positive) that they have completely failed to give a proper view of the cliff rushing towards them. I have no issue with them putting across the idea that the EU might cave, that TM's plan might work, but alongside that they should also be putting out the consequences if it doesn't and laying out the massive gamble that TM is undertaking.

I dont think theyve had a single MEP on as a guest to date btw other than Farage and UKIPs.

There is a distinct editorial decision within that show

ancapailldorcha

Not a single pro-EU MEP has ever appeared on Question Time:

Leroy42

Well, being pedantic by wasn't Mairead McGuinness on it recently? Of course that doesn't take away from the central point that clearly they have very favourable to UKIP and anti-EU in general.

But, I put this down to a sense of balance. Most MP's etc were pro EU and as such UKIP were one of only a few serious anti-EU politicians. So on a panel there really is little point having a pro-EU MEP along side Tory and Labour and LibDem, all of which were pro-EU (in general).

That is not to say that I don't think the BBC have done a terrible job. I just don't think it is purely down to bias. I do think they feel constrained in their criticism of the government and that leads to many Brexiteers getting a free ride.

What they have failed to do is hold Brexiteers to account for the statements they make and the arguments they put forth. When Davis continues to make clearly false statements then he should no longer be given a place on the debate.

seamus

EKRIUQ wrote: »

I find this amazing, 3,500 people lose their jobs and it barely makes the front pages of the daily news papers in the UK

Mentioned on some but the large papers don't have it on the front.

https://imgur.com/a/DpanbKe#s56NATn

If we are to look at it comparatively, 3,500 jobs in Swindon is not the same thing as Intel shutting down in Leixlip. In the latter case, there's probably not a person in Ireland who wouldn't know someone affected by such a closure.
But given the size of the UK, 3,500 jobs over there is more akin to 250 job losses over here. Pretty big, but it wouldn't be headline news here either.

In terms of local impact though it shouldn't be ignored. If we pessimistically say that the loss of 3,500 jobs will lead to 3,500 more indirect losses, that's a 6% increase in unemployment in Swindon. That's a massive blow to any region.

The UK's real worries are the big companies who are just about holding it together right now.

John Lewis is the largest private employer in the UK with nearly 100,000 employees. They saw their worse year for profits (since they started reporting them) in 2017/2018. Down to £100m from £450m the previous year.

For the first half of the 2018/2019 year, they reported a drop in profits to just £1.2m (not, that's not a typo). Unless they made £100m in profits for the second-half of the year, things are about to go very, very South in the UK's largest private employer.

Their year-end report probably won't come out till next month. They might (IMHO) time it deliberately to show what Brexit is doing and try to turn the public tide.

The news here isn't really that 3,500 jobs are gone. It's that this is just the beginning. The big job losses haven't even begun.

prawnsambo

listermint wrote: »

I dont think theyve had a single MEP on as a guest to date btw other than Farage and UKIPs.

There is a distinct editorial decision within that show

I think they had Mairead McGuinness on a couple of times. But there aren't that many UK elected anti-brexit MEPs. The majority are UKIP, ex-UKIP, independent ex-UKIP and Tory.

ancapailldorcha

McGuinness appeared in March 2018, one of the few episodes I can recollect. The infograph I posted stops at February of the same year.

listermint

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think they had Mairead McGuinness on a couple of times. But there aren't that many UK elected anti-brexit MEPs. The majority are UKIP, ex-UKIP, independent ex-UKIP and Tory.

I think that may have been on a video link just to answer a question or two rather than a guest, if i recall

lawred2

seamus wrote: »

If we are to look at it comparatively, 3,500 jobs in Swindon is not the same thing as Intel shutting down in Leixlip. In the latter case, there's probably not a person in Ireland who wouldn't know someone affected by such a closure.
But given the size of the UK, 3,500 jobs over there is more akin to 250 job losses over here. Pretty big, but it wouldn't be headline news here either.

In terms of local impact though it shouldn't be ignored. If we pessimistically say that the loss of 3,500 jobs will lead to 3,500 more indirect losses, that's a 6% increase in unemployment in Swindon. That's a massive blow to any region.

The UK's real worries are the big companies who are just about holding it together right now.

John Lewis is the largest private employer in the UK with nearly 100,000 employees. They saw their worse year for profits (since they started reporting them) in 2017/2018. Down to £100m from £450m the previous year.

For the first half of the 2018/2019 year, they reported a drop in profits to just £1.2m (not, that's not a typo). Unless they made £100m in profits for the second-half of the year, things are about to go very, very South in the UK's largest private employer.

Their year-end report probably won't come out till next month. They might (IMHO) time it deliberately to show what Brexit is doing and try to turn the public tide.

The news here isn't really that 3,500 jobs are gone. It's that this is just the beginning. The big job losses haven't even begun.

can't really buy that - the car manufacturing industry was specifically highlighted as not going to be impacted by Brexit..

And hey presto - here's one completely shutting its doors with no mention in the media? Not sure it's simply because of relatively small numbers. It's still 3500 people.

That bit about John Lewis is scary

VinLieger

Some redditors from swindon have estimated the full job losses of Honda leaving, likely to be at least 10,000 or 10% of swindons workforce. Then you need to consider what happens when those 10,000 lose their jobs and who that might affect, the domino effect here could be catastrophic.


https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/as93q2/about_those_3500_honda_jobs/