Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

McGuinness appeared in March 2018, one of the few episodes I can recollect. The infograph I posted stops at February of the same year.

McGuinness was only ever on the show once (and expressed surprise she had been invited).

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

I imagine as with Irish producers,the British farmers will increase production as required.

As Imreoir2 pointed out, there's a limit to how much extra British farmers can produce because they're already struggling to harvest what they grow due to a shortage of EU migrant labour. There's no indication that the UK unemployed are prepared to do the same work for the same pay, so who is?

This isn't something new - the problem of an imbalance of production vs. available labour has been simmering for almost two decades. When I lived in Kent (25-15 years ago), every year saw the stories of about the tonnes of apples being left to rot get worse. Then the Bulgarians and the Romanians came, and suddenly things got back to a state of near normality. Until two years ago, when the English voted to send their fruit- and veg-pickers home.

RobMc59 wrote: »

So geographical problems will apply to the UK but not Ireland?

I think that's a reference to the fact that Britain (like Ireland) can't produce everything all year 'round, due to it's geographical position, so relies on imports for the lean months of the year. Regardless of Brexit, Ireland can continue to import winter fruit and veg from it's current Mediterranean EU suppliers and know that it will arrive fresh enough to be sold at a premium. Post Brexit, the UK will not have the same guarantee.

spacecoyote

Leroy42 wrote: »

What is the plan for UK financial services in a crash out? I hear a lot of talk about tariffs and quotas but nothing, it seems, in relation to FS.

London is such a major contributor to the UK economy (for good or ill) yet there seems very little discussion about it.

I am not too aware of the industry, so excuse me for asking what may well be an easy question, but is a Hard Brexit expected to make any material difference to this area of the UK economy. I know about the movements of assets but even that seems to be shrugged off so leaves me thinking that overall there might not be much impact.

I guess my main point is that as far as I can see there is very little conversation about it in the UK, either in HoC or the media.

Generally speaking, most FS firms will be setting up or have already set up a European "Bank", generally in places like Ireland or Luxembourg. A FS company employing thousands of people might only have 20 working for the "Bank" so it may not be a massively significant shift in staffing. They would however ultimately be transferring all of the assets of their clients from the UK to EU bank, so whilst it might not be a big staffing impact, it would likely be a large wealth transfer (as everyone is already hearing about & seeing)

That's not to say that they will be shutting down their UK operations, as most of the big firms have significant amounts of UK pension business, etc...

As I mentioned, their EU "Bank" may only be a relatively small operation relative to the overall size of the firm. It is essentially establishing a base that would fall under the EEA regulatory framework.

If however, their full servicing operation was based in the UK, then if they want to continue to service EEA business, they would have to set up an operation in the EEA, so would likely be a significant movement

For example I work for a company that set up a "Bank" in Europe (keeping details vague here, as I don't want to disclose any confidential info publicly). They already had operations in various European countries, but the main European bank was based in London (as would generally be the case for most international FS firms). As a result, all clients in the EEA will be transferred to the new European banking operation.

This is the case in all Brexit scenarios, whether it be crash out, soft brexit, etc... The asset transfer would be a planned process. A crash out though, may ultimately push up timelines for completion

prawnsambo

lawred2 wrote: »

can't really buy that - the car manufacturing industry was specifically highlighted as not going to be impacted by Brexit..

And hey presto - here's one completely shutting its doors with no mention in the media? Not sure it's simply because of relatively small numbers. It's still 3500 people.

That bit about John Lewis is scary

And John Lewis are a very progressive employer. Their benefits package for employees is pretty much stellar for the sector.

Hurrache

RobMc59 wrote: »

So geographical problems will apply to the UK but not Ireland?-I think not.The current set up regarding milk between say Ireland and NI suits both,if the situation changes both will have to adjust output accordingly which will probably be good news for both sets of dairy producers.

In the same post you quoted didn't i say that anything we can't grow ourselves we currently get tariff free through EU and its trade agreements?

RobMc59

Hurrache wrote: »

In the same post you quoted didn't i say that anything we can't grow ourselves we currently get tariff free?

I'm not trying to say Ireland will be any worse off-I commented that Britain saying there will be tariffs just makes it a level playing field.

VinLieger

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'm not trying to say Ireland will be any worse off-I commented that Britain saying there will be tariffs just makes it a level playing field.

Not really they import about 30% of their food out of neccessity because they don't produce enough even with full farming employment. So even if they put everyone out into the fields to work the harvest they currently don't have a farming industry that is capable of feeding the entire country. Increasing tariffs doesn't help solve this problem as any food they currently import will either be too expensive to purchase or no longer available as the suppliers aren't bothered with the new tariff and import infrastructure.

Ireland however can feed itself without too much effort. People would need to adjust their diets but we are rated as being one of the most self sustainable countries in the world when it comes to food security. Also this scenario assumes we are also out of the EU which we aren't and by all accounts many of our chains have arranged new deals with other EU countries quite some time ago to avoid any major supply issues beyond the initial shock of the first week or two.

Also don't forget the seasonal timing of brexit, it falls in a time of the year where the UK due to the majority of the food it grows being out of harvest is especially vulnerable to a drop in food imports.

lawred2

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'm not trying to say Ireland will be any worse off-I commented that Britain saying there will be tariffs just makes it a level playing field.

not really

what is it that the UK produces for export that can't be sourced by other EU nations elsewhere in the EU?

RobMc59

CelticRambler wrote: »

As Imreoir2 pointed out, there's a limit to how much extra British farmers can produce because they're already struggling to harvest what they grow due to a shortage of EU migrant labour. There's no indication that the UK unemployed are prepared to do the same work for the same pay, so who is?

This isn't something new - the problem of an imbalance of production vs. available labour has been simmering for almost two decades. When I lived in Kent (25-15 years ago), every year saw the stories of about the tonnes of apples being left to rot get worse. Then the Bulgarians and the Romanians came, and suddenly things got back to a state of near normality. Until two years ago, when the English voted to send their fruit- and veg-pickers home.


I think that's a reference to the fact that Britain (like Ireland) can't produce everything all year 'round, due to it's geographical position, so relies on imports for the lean months of the year. Regardless of Brexit, Ireland can continue to import winter fruit and veg from it's current Mediterranean EU suppliers and know that it will arrive fresh enough to be sold at a premium. Post Brexit, the UK will not have the same guarantee.

I understand you are quite knowledgeable on these subjects so wouldn't attempt to argue with you about it!:)
I would say though,that as regards fresh fruit etc,fruit we had prior to joining the CM which I believe was from south Africa amongst other countries was fine-I'd also like to remind you I'm a remainer but if the worst happens(hard brexit)the UK will have to live with that-an ambitious trade deal with Australia has been mooted but I don't see how that improves what we already have now.

Hurrache

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'm not trying to say Ireland will be any worse off-I commented that Britain saying there will be tariffs just makes it a level playing field.

Yes, but it won't actually be level due to their dependency on a large percentage of their food being imported. While farmers may stop complaining, the consumer will be out of pocket.

RobMc59

gmisk wrote: »

I watched the John Oliver programme on brexit.
Even the Americans seem bemused with the absolute disaster coming over the hill.
But hey blitz spirit stiff upper lip and all that guff!

Apologies-I meant to say if the UK has to pay an EXPORT tariff it's reasonable to impose an import tariff to ensure a level playing field.

lawred2

gmisk wrote: »

I watched the John Oliver programme on brexit.
Even the Americans seem bemused with the absolute disaster coming over the hill.
But hey blitz spirit stiff upper lip and all that guff!

Is John Oliver back on? Or is that one from last year?

VinLieger

SNIP. Do not dump videos here please.

lawred2

RobMc59 wrote: »

Apologies-I meant to say if the UK has to pay an EXPORT tariff it's reasonable to impose an import tariff to ensure a level playing field.

you've just claimed that again

it doesn't at all ensure a level playing field - it just sends purchasers off elsewhere for tariff free product freely available in the single market..

what is it that the UK produces for export that can't be sourced by other EU nations elsewhere in the EU?

whiskey maybe but then scotch will have lost its PDO/PGI/TSG stamps

RobMc59

Hurrache wrote: »

Yes, but it won't actually be level due to their dependency on a large percentage of their food being imported. While farmers may stop complaining, the consumer will be out of pocket.

I don't know facts and figures but if irish producers can leap into action and start producing more,doesn't that apply to producers in NI and the rest of the UK?There may initially a shortfall period but how long will it take to increase milk or meat/poultry production?

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

fruit we had prior to joining the CM which I believe was from south Africa amongst other countries was fine-I'd also like to remind you I'm a remainer but if the worst happens(hard brexit)the UK will have to live with that-an ambitious trade deal with Australia has been mooted but I don't see how that improves what we already have now.

Back in the pre-CM days, you didn't have countries with huge appetites like China buying up everything they could in Africa. This is the point that so often seems to be lost on "Empire Day" Leavers (you're obviously not one of them! ): the world has changed, and the "emerging economies" upon which the Brexiteers are counting for magnificent trade deals are not just consumers, but also competitors. Britain's membership of the EU hasn't been all about selling to others, but also being part of a market that worth others selling into.

brickster69

Folkstonian wrote: »

Yeah it’s not true - they are consolidating manufacturing in Japan.

The Honda factory in turkey (inside the CU obviously) is also closing with the vehicles made there also being transferred to japan.

I’m not one for obstinately saying that there are no ill-effects being felt by manufacturers in Britain by us leaving the European Union but in this instance it does look like it’s not a major factor, to me at least

Just to clarify. I was not meaning production for cars sold to the EU would be made in Thailand instead.

However Honda and various car makers are moving there in order to sell to expanding car markets in the region. The Thai government offer firms 8 years with no taxation on company profits and very low wages. So three very big incentives.

BorneTobyWilde

Ireland should be offering lots of carrots to the likes of Nissan and Honda to come to Ireland. It would be win win. Would be great to see cars built here again.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don't know facts and figures but if irish producers can leap into action and start producing more,doesn't that apply to producers in NI and the rest of the UK?

Irish producers don't (can't) leap into action. Instead, we have a very professional, very well-connected team of agricultural economists and ambassadors that keep an eye on global trends and are hell-bent on making sure that Ireland is top of the list for any country thinking of changing or increasing it's food import policy.

This is also something else that the Brexiteers don't understand about why the RoI/NI border (and chlorinate chickens/hormone beef/etc) is such a big deal for the Irish. Our agricultural output is a premium brand, and gets us into those infamous emerging economies ahead of other countries. The prospect of cheap crap crossing an uncontrolled border and contaminating our brand image would be far more devastating for our economy than, e.g. the Apple Tax.

Strazdas

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don't know facts and figures but if irish producers can leap into action and start producing more,doesn't that apply to producers in NI and the rest of the UK?There may initially a shortfall period but how long will it take to increase milk or meat/poultry production?

I'm no expert on agriculture but I would imagine those type of dramatic increases in production would take years, not weeks. You can't just magic up farmers, farming land, supply chains, food processing plants etc out of nowhere.

road_high

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Ireland should be offering lots of carrots to the likes of Nissan and Honda to come to Ireland. It would be win win. Would be great to see cars built here again.

We are too far away from the supply chains for parts etc. We have a small components industry that feeds the EU but not the expertise to build cars. We are also a tiny home market.
We should stick to what we are good at which if pharma, food and light engineering

L1011

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Ireland should be offering lots of carrots to the likes of Nissan and Honda to come to Ireland. It would be win win. Would be great to see cars built here again.

The IDA were trying to get Nissan to take the Amgen site in Cork, before May bribed them to stay.

road_high wrote: »

but not the expertise to build cars

Quite a lot of Cork-born people working in car plants across Europe due to doing what their parents/grandparents did; that was part of the intent of pushing Cork by the IDA.

Still some car parts manufacturers around there despite Ford closing over 30 years ago - not a full supply chain by any means though.

CelticRambler

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Ireland should be offering lots of carrots to the likes of Nissan and Honda to come to Ireland. It would be win win. Would be great to see cars built here again.

Not a hope. Haven't you noticed that these companies are closing factories, not opening them! The last thing Ireland needs is to waste money trying to attract last-century industry to the country.

CelticRambler wrote: »

Instead, we have a very professional, very well-connected team of agricultural economists and ambassadors that keep an eye on global trends and are hell-bent on making sure that Ireland is top of the list ...

As an aside: boards.ie is full of (Irish) posters who are just about as blinkered as any Brexiteer when it comes to what their government and "unelected bureaucrats" are doing behind closed doors on their behalf, all around the world. But when you leave the island, and make an effort to get off the tourist trail, you soon realise that Ireland's economic (agriculture/tourism/IT/pharma) success is not a miracle in any way - it's the result of a lot of hard work and intense networking ... and making friends, not enemies!

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please stop posting comedy videos here. Any links will be deleted.

VinLieger

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don't know facts and figures but if irish producers can leap into action and start producing more,doesn't that apply to producers in NI and the rest of the UK?There may initially a shortfall period but how long will it take to increase milk or meat/poultry production?

Firstly we don't have to suddenly leap into action to produce more as we already produce enough to feed ourselves.


Secondly think about your second question for a minute "how long will it take to increase milk/meat poultry production?"

You do understand more animals cannot simply be magicked up our of thin air don't you?

They take time to breed and then raise to an age where they are able to produce milk/eggs or are at the age to be slaughtered, then there's the issue where you need the rate of birth's vs slaughters to be scalable and sustainable.

RobMc59

VinLieger wrote: »

Firstly we don't have to suddenly leap into action to produce more as we already produce enough to feed ourselves.


Secondly think about your second question for a minute "how long will it take to increase milk/meat poultry production?" you do understand more animals cannot simply be magicked up our of thin air don't you? They take time to breed and then raise to an age where they are able to produce milk/ eggs or are at the age to be slaughtered, then there's the issue where you need the rate of birth's vs slaughters to be scalable and sustainable.

Well....yes I said there would be a shortfall period.

VinLieger

RobMc59 wrote: »

Well....yes I said there would be a shortfall period.

For probably several years unless you start buying animals from abroad which is where we come back to tariffs

RobMc59

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Ireland should be offering lots of carrots to the likes of Nissan and Honda to come to Ireland. It would be win win. Would be great to see cars built here again.

Why?-Japan is ecstatic about the new EU-Japan trade deal and can import cars tariff free into the EU.I still haven't discovered what's in it for the EU though.

Hurrache

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don't know facts and figures but if irish producers can leap into action and start producing more,doesn't that apply to producers in NI and the rest of the UK?There may initially a shortfall period but how long will it take to increase milk or meat/poultry production?

You're missing the point, food is much more than milk and poultry. Ireland also has already stopped sourcing from the UK where it can.

lawred2

RobMc59 wrote: »

Why?-Japan is ecstatic about the new EU-Japan trade deal and can import cars tariff free into the EU.I still haven't discovered what's in it for the EU though.

you seem to be of the impression that the only item in the FTA is automobiles..

it's a lot more than that

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/eu-japan-economic-partnership-agreement/eu-japan-in-your-town/

cool little facility that shows companies in the EU exporting to Japan.

and specifically here's Ireland

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/eu-japan-economic-partnership-agreement/eu-japan-in-your-town/ireland_en.htm