Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Folkstonian

fash wrote: »

The various sub regions should take back control - they hold all the cards and the UK needs them more than they need the UK. These are remoaner traitors to the regions (etc.) engagingin in project fear...

If there’s one thing that the U.K. doesn’t need more than it needs the U.K., its Northern Ireland

Capt'n Midnight

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Even the BBC can no longer deny Brexit is a negative

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47212992



This is what iirks be about BBC nowadays, the nanny tone in that sentence, it means everyone in UK is poorer (15% is not a little btw), just say it, grrrr

This analysis piece was commissioned by the BBC from experts working for an outside organisation.

Arrrrrhhhhhh !!!!!

Services account for about 40% of UK exports to the EU, which will mostly rely on the goodwill of the EU to continue.

Quoting this bit to show how low the BBC is sinking

Finally, one thing that often puzzles people is the fact that for decades we have bought more from other countries than they buy from us. How can that be?

The answer is that this trade deficit is matched by a surplus elsewhere.

Essentially foreigners are willing to lend us money - or buy our assets - because they believe the UK is a pretty safe, stable and open economy.

As a result, we are able to consume more than we produce.

In fact some have argued that we have been too attractive for foreign money - too stable, open and trustworthy. The result, they say, is that this foreign cash has pushed up the exchange rate, making UK businesses less competitive.

The bit in bold is an over simplification. I'm not an economist but it completely ignores that 80% of UK economy is services.

As for buying assets, I'm guessing that a lot of people with hard currency are waiting to see what happens before the upcoming asset grab.


The bit about businesses being less competitive is hogwash.
Sterling has fallen by 15% so UK exports are cheaper because they are literally being subsidised by a fall in wage packets. But exports haven't risen, even when measured in sterlings. Measure in Euros or Dollars and it's depressing.

gooch2k9

Water John wrote: »

This from The Guardian;
With time running out, cabinet was also updated on the option of a no-deal Brexit if May cannot get her withdrawal agreement approved by parliament. One cabinet source said only Liz Truss, the secretary to the Treasury, spoke up emphatically in favour of keeping no deal as a negotiating option.

“I can’t understand how a No 2 at the Treasury could still countenance keeping that on the table,” the cabinet source said, but added that the general mood in the room had noticeably turned against no deal as a negotiating tactic.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/19/brexit-backstop-may-rules-out-malthouse-compromise

So hopefully the Cabinet are also quietly dropping the No Deal option.

Another interesting piece from the spokesperson in that article.

“We agreed to keep exploring the use of alternative arrangements – especially how they might be developed to ensure the absence of a hard border in Northern Ireland on a permanent footing, avoiding the need for the backstop to ever enter force.”

Brexiteers basically being called out to back up their claims on border solutions, and being given time to implement. It's been something sorely lacking in the discussion that nobody was concerned with coming up with a solution so the backstop wasn't needed. Only "No backstop!".

listermint

Folkstonian wrote: »

If that’s accurate, it’s a fascinating insight into how sick lots of voters are with ‘traditional’ politics at the moment

They don’t have a leader or a manifesto, we don’t know who leads them, or anything about what they stand for apart from remaining in Europe and stopping Corbyn becoming PM.

I wonder if they could become quite a serious force if they receive funding, organise themselves with a proper manifesto and leadership contest, and tempt other MPs to jump ship

I think their slogan was new politics tbf. Not down with corybn.

Capt'n Midnight

Leroy42 wrote: »

What is the plan for UK financial services in a crash out? I hear a lot of talk about tariffs and quotas but nothing, it seems, in relation to FS.

The Swiss have signed a deal for business as usual. Most of the world's gold goes through London. Also the UK won't be benefiting from any new EU-Swiss deal.

The EU have announced some business as usual will continue even if there's a Hard Brexit. However, this is to cushion the EU and EU citizens from abrupt disruptions and could be withdrawn at anytime. So there could be more wealth transfers.

More Part VII transfers
Ariva are moving £8Bn here one minute before the UK leaves , NatWest are moving billions to it's Dutch hub.

listermint

What are the Spanish doing with the pensioner immigrants

Inquitus

listermint wrote: »

What are the Spanish doing with the pensioner immigrants

They can stay, but as it stands, in case of no deal, they lose the reciprocal health coverage that's part of the EU agreement, and will have to either pay out of pocket or get private cover. Given their age, premiums would be huge you'd think.

Water John

In plain language, you can stay and we'll take your money now, but when you get old and crokked head off back to the NHS.

Akrasia

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

They admit problems with the model.

The model is based in each seat on a random simulation of Labour votes between the old and new parties, and it is not yet possible to give a definite seat-by-seat prediction or show changed seats.

Yeah. The labour split will result in more Tory gains as the ex labour candidate steals votes from the Labour candidate.

It really was a spectacular own goal given the FPTP nature of uk elections

Roanmore

Was watching CNN this morning, talking about Israel signing one of these deals with the UK. Said it was worth 4bn to the UK. They were saying UK will be delighted with this but all it was is a roll over of the current deal they have.
The spin is unbelievable.

Also the analogy about going to buy a car and being able to walk away is rubbish. A better analogy would be the UK trying to sell a car to the EU and basically saying we'll if you won't buy it we're leaving it here and walking away.

RobMc59

road_high wrote: »

Perhaps not but reputationally Ireland is in a different league. Which really matters when you’re selling infant formula to China or Japan.
Salmonella, BSE and foot and mouth are still synonymous with UK food production, we are very lucky we have a strong recognized brand very distinct from the Uk one

https://www.teagasc.ie/animals/dairy/animal-health/disease/
Could be a case of pot,kettle,black as it looks like Ireland has its share of problems as well.

road_high

listermint wrote: »

What are the Spanish doing with the pensioner immigrants

The Spanish have been saints up to now dealing with these immigrants. Haven’t threatened or used them as bargaining chips once. Despite the fact they’re using Spanish health services and all other services, paying very little in tax (generally all retired, modest pensions).

road_high

RobMc59 wrote: »

https://www.teagasc.ie/animals/dairy/animal-health/disease/
Could be a case of pot,kettle,black as it looks like Ireland has its share of problems as well.

But those animal health problems occur all over the worlds? Once animals are treated and managed properly these are routine.
BSE and F&M have been mainly UK creations within Europe in recent scares. Nothing like that here really, bar imports from the UK.

jm08

RobMc59 wrote: »

https://www.teagasc.ie/animals/dairy/animal-health/disease/
Could be a case of pot,kettle,black as it looks like Ireland has its share of problems as well.

Comparing Lameness, Liver Fluke and Mastitis to BSE is like comparing having a cold to suffering from cancer. The first three are all treatable. BSE kills.



Foot and Mouth isn't harmful to human health, just animal health.

briany

road_high wrote: »

The Spanish have been saints up to now dealing with these immigrants. Haven’t threatened or used them as bargaining chips once. Despite the fact they’re using Spanish health services and all other services, paying very little in tax (generally all retired, modest pensions).

Yeah, and I doubt there are many Spanish pensioners retiring to Torquay, so it seems like it's a bit one-sided, unless the teenagers coming to Britain in the summer to learn English makes up for it, 'cause I doubt most of them are contributing much into the British tax kitty either.

Capt'n Midnight

listermint wrote: »

What are the Spanish doing with the pensioner immigrants

Nothing.

They'll be focused on the general election on Sunday April 28th so the expats had better keep their heads down in case either side tries to use them as acceptable targets. Also good luck getting an Article 50 extension because that needs the Spanish to agree.


Also some argy-bargy over Gibraltar

Inquitus wrote: »

They can stay, but as it stands, in case of no deal, they lose the reciprocal health coverage that's part of the EU agreement, and will have to either pay out of pocket or get private cover. Given their age, premiums would be huge you'd think.

They can still get public cover.

One would be to continue accessing the Spanish NHS by a special agreement – which costs €157 a month for over 65s and €60 a month for under 65s, and involves paying 100% of prescription charges.

( can't find the reuters/bbc link I saw earlier about the S1 )

And it's still unclear about the new UK 25% clawback on foreign pension payments that's on the roadmap.

BTW unless you are Spanish or Spanish by blood or from a Spanish speaking country you can forget dual citizenship. So the UK expats would have to had over the (blue) passports, and that's a whole new mess if they ever try to back or get UK citizenship again.

An Ciarraioch

Financial Times saying Wollaston, Allen and Soubry are all considering leaving the Tories.

backspin.

briany wrote: »

Yeah, and I doubt there are many Spanish pensioners retiring to Torquay, so it seems like it's a bit one-sided, unless the teenagers coming to Britain in the summer to learn English makes up for it, 'cause I doubt most of them are contributing much into the British tax kitty either.

I thought under those reciprocal health agreements the UK would be reimbursing the Spanish health service for the cost of the British citizens using the Spanish health system.

road_high

briany wrote: »

Yeah, and I doubt there are many Spanish pensioners retiring to Torquay, so it seems like it's a bit one-sided, unless the teenagers coming to Britain in the summer to learn English makes up for it, 'cause I doubt most of them are contributing much into the British tax kitty either.

I’ve seen them in YouTube- they’re “expats” don’t ya know- not migrants! One loophole the Spanish should close up and start charging them top dollar fir their healthcare etc

Folkstonian

road_high wrote: »

I’ve seen them in YouTube- they’re “expats” don’t ya know- not migrants! One loophole the Spanish should close up and start charging them top dollar fir their healthcare etc

You classy fella, you.

Btw - Brits are overwhelmingly a net contributor to the Spanish economy. Over 15m Brits a year holiday in Spain, pouring billions into the tourism sector.

Despite all the uncertainty surrounding what happens next month, the drop off in U.K. citizens booking summer holidays in Spain and elsewhere in the EU has been relatively small so far, but if the Spanish want to take an abrasive stance towards them, I’m sure there are other countries to travel and spend lots of money in

Hurrache

But you know they're not talking about holiday makers don't you.

listermint

Folkstonian wrote: »

You classy fella, you.

Btw - Brits are overwhelmingly a net contributor to the Spanish economy. Over 15m Brits a year holiday in Spain, pouring billions into the tourism sector.

Despite all the uncertainty surrounding what happens next month, the drop off in U.K. citizens booking summer holidays in Spain and elsewhere in the EU has been relatively small so far, but if the Spanish want to take an abrasive stance towards them, I’m sure there are other countries to travel and spend lots of money in

Erm .. foreign holidays are the first hit in a recession. You know the people who will be out of work with closing businesses.

That's not smug. That's the dire consequences and situation we are in now.

You seem to be pretending as if business will be as usual. Milk and honey and all that

road_high

Folkstonian wrote: »

You classy fella, you.

Btw - Brits are overwhelmingly a net contributor to the Spanish economy. Over 15m Brits a year holiday in Spain, pouring billions into the tourism sector.

Despite all the uncertainty surrounding what happens next month, the drop off in U.K. citizens booking summer holidays in Spain and elsewhere in the EU has been relatively small so far, but if the Spanish want to take an abrasive stance towards them, I’m sure there are other countries to travel and spend lots of money in

Yes, were. Now you’re not anymore so you can drop the faux victimhood and martyrdom. On leaving the EU that card does with it. Not to even touch on all the rebates and benefits accrued- you don’t get anything fir nothing off the English as we know all too well here.
Yes I’m sure they can but still no need for the Spanish to be so accommodating to a bunch of old locusts living on their modest pensions clogging up Spanish hospitals and services, utilities. They can do all that in their own country which they were so keen to have control of.

road_high

backspin. wrote: »

I thought under those reciprocal health agreements the UK would be reimbursing the Spanish health service for the cost of the British citizens using the Spanish health system.

is that really the same thing? The Spanish health service is excellent - the migrants admit as much themselves so I don’t see the benefit to Spain of having an elderly cohort of migrants using it more frequently as older would need to. They’re taking up space and resources from the local tax paying Spanish and other working migrants.

FrancieBrady

road_high wrote: »

Yes, were. Now you’re not anymore so you can drop the faux victimhood and martyrdom. On leaving the EU that card does with it. Not to even touch on all the rebates and benefits accrued- you don’t get anything fir nothing off the English as we know all too well here.
Yes I’m sure they can but still no need for the Spanish to be so accommodating to a bunch of old locusts living on their modest pensions clogging up Spanish hospitals and services, utilities. They can do all that in their own country which they were so keen to have control of.

Without the need to be inhumanely harsh, these are just more examples of people who will be hurt by Brexit being those who can least sustain it.

Harry Palmr

Spain know 300,000 British immigrants are more good news than bad for their economy at the moment but as said as they get older and more ill then it might turn out to be a drain esp as post Brexit the numbers of fresh younger "expats" will surely start to fall off.

road_high

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Without the need to be inhumanely harsh, these are just more examples of people who will be hurt by Brexit being those who can least sustain it.

A lot of them actually voted for Brexit- again I’ve seen several interviewed- “because they wanted their country back”. If you’re that thick do you really warrant kitten gloved treatment thereafter? I don’t think so, actions have consequences. You want brexit the freedoms and privileges of being in the Eu go with it.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/castlvillageman/status/1097875296349503488

Looks like the irish government is the only one looking out for the people of Northern Ireland

Spanish Eyes

road_high wrote: »

Yes, were. Now you’re not anymore so you can drop the faux victimhood and martyrdom. On leaving the EU that card does with it. Not to even touch on all the rebates and benefits accrued- you don’t get anything fir nothing off the English as we know all too well here.
Yes I’m sure they can but still no need for the Spanish to be so accommodating to a bunch of old locusts living on their modest pensions clogging up Spanish hospitals and services, utilities. They can do all that in their own country which they were so keen to have control of.

Here is an article from the BBC about retired Brits in Spain.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47214093

The sheer ignorance (meant in the intelligence context) is just jaw dropping.

There is one lady who voted FOR Brexit and is now concerned. You just could not make this up really.

20silkcut

RobMc59 wrote: »

https://www.teagasc.ie/animals/dairy/animal-health/disease/
Could be a case of pot,kettle,black as it looks like Ireland has its share of problems as well.

The foot and mouth crisis of 2001 perfectly illustrated the difference in attitude to Animal disease between Ireland and the UK.
I recall 6 nations rugby games being cancelled in Ireland and hurling and football games.
Nothing like that happened in Britain.
It was a national crisis in Ireland.
It barely made headlines in Britain and that’s where all the **** was hitting the fan.