Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

robinph

Peregrinus wrote: »

FIFA or EUFA couldn't bring in such a rule and apply it to EU countries requiring them to discriminate against players from other EU countries. And bringing in such a rule but giving EU countries a carve-out with respect to players from other EU countries would be obviously unfair to non-EU countries. So I doubt that it will happen.

As the UK has the majority of the votes in any rule changes that Fifa might make they are hardly going to bring in something that would go against what would work for the UK game.

robinph

Leroy42 wrote: »

Would TM be able to retain power if the single line she has been working on is shown to have failed (the length of time is irrelevant). How would it affect the standing of the Tories to have failed to deliver?

She has also said that no deal is better than a bad deal, but then tried to convince people that the deal she came up with was better than no deal, and then a few weeks later changed her mind and said that her deal was a bad deal and shouldn't be agreed upon. Not sure what point along the "no deal - bad deal - Mays deal" scale that put things or in what order, but I think the point is that everyone remains perpetually perplexed as to what is going on.

CrabRevolution

robinph wrote: »

As the UK has the majority of the votes in any rule changes that Fifa might make they are hardly going to bring in something that would go against what would work for the UK game.

The UK only hold the half of votes in the IFAB, which is technically separate from FIFA. Also they only rule on the laws of the actual sport,not rules on organisation, eligibility etc. Which is what could be affected by brexit.

Thargor

May has been pretty unequivocal about the UK leaving at the end of March but I suppose that doesn't mean much these days...

Imreoir2

Akrasia wrote: »

Richard Bruton has confirmed that in the event of a No Deal scenario, the Electricity market between the North and the South could be disrupted and the North may need to find alternative electricity supply

The single market rules for electricity may make it illegal for Ireland to sell electricity to the UK absent a legal arrangement to do so.

This had already been discussed as a possibility, but most people figured that the UK wouldn't let it to get this close to the line without making proper arrangements to keep the lights in the North

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/no-deal-brexit-could-impact-some-types-of-electricity-trading-bruton-1.3799686

Christ, of all the no-deal predictions for which I had hoped the label of project fear had some truth to it, it was the lights going out in NI. A hard border may or may not cause tensions in the months ahead, the lights going out will cause riots in the first few days.

Leroy42

Thargor wrote: »

May has been pretty unequivocal about the UK leaving at the end of March but I suppose that doesn't mean much these days...

Never has. She stated time and again that there wasn't going to be an election, before calling an election.
She stated time and again that no PM could ever accept the backstop, yet presented a deal to parliament with a backstop.

Basically, the reason why any of this has dragged on as long as it has is because TM has no credibility and all sides think that a some point she will side with them.

Hurrache

[Miley voice] Well holy God, this is from a political editor on BBC's Newsnight [/]

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1098134577514758145

Leroy42

Haha, I can imagine Leo ringing up Mary Lou to tell her to get SF to take up their seats.

Hurrache

"Hey Mary, take the government jet if you like, make those DUP'ers less smarmy because they get a lifts from a business man".

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

[Miley voice] Well holy God, this is from a political editor on BBC's Newsnight [/]

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1098134577514758145

This is alternate reality stuff

MrMusician18

Hurrache wrote: »

[Miley voice] Well holy God, this is from a political editor on BBC's Newsnight [/]

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1098134577514758145

It doesn't make any sense. The Irish government want the withdrawal deal to pass.

RobMc59

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Christ, of all the no-deal predictions for which I had hoped the label of project fear had some truth to it, it was the lights going out in NI. A hard border may or may not cause tensions in the months ahead, the lights going out will cause riots in the first few days.

Some people might say that statement says a lot about you-surely you're not hoping for riots?

kunst nugget

MrMusician18 wrote: »

It doesn't make any sense. The Irish government want the withdrawal deal to pass.

I'd imagine it really doesn't matter to them if it makes sense or not. The media portrayal of Varadkar in the UK seems to be one of a smirking puppet controlled by a Machiavellian EU whose only purpose in life is to make Blighty suffer.

Hurrache

kunst nugget wrote: »

I'd imagine it really doesn't matter to them if it makes sense or not. The media portrayal of Varadkar in the UK seems to be one of a smirking puppet controlled by a Machiavellian EU whose only purpose in life is to make Blighty suffer.

I expect this type of stuff from the tabloids, even someone like Katya Adler in the BBC, but at the level of political editor on Newsnight shows how low their standing had sunk.

A Dub in Glasgo

Hurrache wrote: »

[Miley voice] Well holy God, this is from a political editor on BBC's Newsnight [/]

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1098134577514758145

Groundhog Day comes to mind although I suppose the people paid to analysis politics in the UK are so far behind this thread!

This is a post of mine from October in the last thread when the topic of SF abandoning their absentionist policy came up so that they can vote in the HoC pertaining to Brexit and reiterated it again last month

'People should not be naive to think that the minute SF steps into Westminster to participate in parliamentary votes, that all the other MPs will vote the same way they would have if SF were not there. There is more liklihood of plenty more MPs voting against anything SF vote for than the number of votes SF bring to the table. With this in mind it is a total irrelevance to include SF in any calculation'

Silent Running

What I find most annoying is that the UK are actually in full control of one thing: whether or not to leave at all. They can withdraw article 50 at any time before the expiry date. This means that they don't actually have to put millions of pounds into no-deal preparation, if only they knew for certain whether they would be willing to actually use the option, or not. All other affected countries are busy pouring money into preparations.

Now, I'm not saying that the UK aren't throwing money at it, just that they're the only ones to have the advantage of the knowledge of whether it will be needed, or not. It's like having a 'get out of jail free' card. No other country has that luxury.

Laois_Man

Hurrache wrote: »

[Miley voice] Well holy God, this is from a political editor on BBC's Newsnight [/]

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1098134577514758145

Sorry....I'm a bit lost....why is Leo Varadkar supposed to want a British General Election exactly? To have the DUP influence removed??

bilston

Can someone explain to me how and why the power may be switched off in NI in the event of a no deal?

This seems a bit unlikely to me but that isn't based on anything other than the idea that who would want to turn the lights out up here!

How likely is it to happen in a no deal scenario?

As someone who lives in Belfast I'd quite like to know!

johnnyskeleton

RobMc59 wrote: »

Some people might say that statement says a lot about you-surely you're not hoping for riots?

Mod note:

I think this is a final, final warning, but if all you want to do is play the ball instead of the man, and try to goad people into responding in kind, you will be banned from the forum.

lawred2

bilston wrote: »

Can someone explain to me how and why the power may be switched off in NI in the event of a no deal?

This seems a bit unlikely to me but that isn't based on anything other than the idea that who would want to turn the lights out up here!

How likely is it to happen in a no deal scenario?

As someone who lives in Belfast I'd quite like to know!

Outside the single electricity market where Ireland currently exports electricity to NI.

Outside the single market with no agreement supply could technically see the supply cut off.

Can't see it myself though. Something will be sorted to keep the power flowing. There may be a degree of looking the other way for a while..

But who knows... HMG are doing their utmost to make things miserable for almost everyone. They might actually manage it.

VinLieger

bilston wrote: »

Can someone explain to me how and why the power may be switched off in NI in the event of a no deal?

This seems a bit unlikely to me but that isn't based on anything other than the idea that who would want to turn the lights out up here!

How likely is it to happen in a no deal scenario?

As someone who lives in Belfast I'd quite like to know!

So currently NI does not have enough power generation to self sustainably power itself to its current requirements.

The ROI does generate enough in fact we generate more than we need so we are able to sell power to NI via cabling that runs over the border.

However this ability is contingent on both countries being within the EU as we both are in what is called the single electricity market.

When they leave the EU in a no deal scenario this is no longer possible as they will not have a trade deal with us or any kind of transitional WA that would work similar to the single electricity market.

Imreoir2

bilston wrote: »

Can someone explain to me how and why the power may be switched off in NI in the event of a no deal?

This seems a bit unlikely to me but that isn't based on anything other than the idea that who would want to turn the lights out up here!

How likely is it to happen in a no deal scenario?

As someone who lives in Belfast I'd quite like to know!

NI is part of a single Irish energy market. NI by itself does not produce enough power to meet demand. If the legal basis for the Single Energy Market disapears and eletricity generated in the south can no longer legally be supplied to NI, and NI cannot fulfill its own requirements from its own energy production capasity, then you get blackouts in NI.

54and56

Hurrache wrote: »

[Miley voice] Well holy God, this is from a political editor on BBC's Newsnight [/]

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1098134577514758145

You should know not to pay too much attention to someone from the BBC professing to be an expert on politics when they can't spell the word "motion"!!

johnnyskeleton

bilston wrote: »

Can someone explain to me how and why the power may be switched off in NI in the event of a no deal?

This seems a bit unlikely to me but that isn't based on anything other than the idea that who would want to turn the lights out up here!

How likely is it to happen in a no deal scenario?

As someone who lives in Belfast I'd quite like to know!

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/northern-ireland-facing-energy-deficit-if-no-deal-brexit-1.3561919

I'm not sure it is as dramatic as the lights will instantly go out, but at present it seems to be the case that Northern Ireland's electricity generation infrastructure does not meet their demand and they will not be able to fill the deficit from Scotland. They also seem to have power plants that are nearing the end of their life, so either more money is required for this or they will face a bigger problem further down the line.

At the same time, this article shows a different dimension:

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/ireland-imports-90pc-of-its-oil-and-gas-from-uk-so-energy-must-be-near-top-of-list-of-brexit-priorities-35654758.html

Ireland's electricity generation is significantly dependent on fossil fuels, most of which we import from abroad. A large amount of this either originates in the U.K. e.g. 40% of natural gas from Scotland, or is imported via the U.K.

Disruption to the flow of fossil fuels to Ireland will impact energy generation capacity here, which in turn affects our ability to export it to Northern Ireland.

Basically, a no deal Brexit will cause massive problems for both jursidictions in our fuel insecure Island.

gooch2k9

Three Tories have resigned the whip; Soubry, Allen and Wollaston. Resignation letter hits the nail on the head really.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47306022

Shelga

Finally, three Tories have had enough and defected to the Independent Group:

Three Tory MPs join Labour breakaway group http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47306022

Great news, they just need another 100 or so to join them now.

Imreoir2

Shelga wrote: »

Finally, three Tories have had enough and defected to the Independent Group:

Three Tory MPs join Labour breakaway group http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47306022

Great news, they just need another 100 or so to join them now.

I think it is a little bit more significant than you suggest. A labour splinter group is one thing and largely insignificant in the shceme of things, but that they have been able to attract dis-satisified members from both sides makes them a much bigger threat if you ask me. They have 10 MPs now, the same number as the DUP, they could possibley be a kingmaker for a softer Brexit deal.

EDIT: The article says 8 former labour MP's, I thought there was only 7? Does that bring them up to 11?

spacecoyote

Seth Brundle wrote: »

May is visiting the EU today in the hopes that they can resolve the Backstop issue.

This just feels a bit too Groundhogs day-ish. Someone could probably post this exact thing every Monday morning on here & it would hold true, only to follow it up with another post later in the week of:

"May has returned from visiting the EU with no change to the Backstop"

seamus

Leroy42 wrote: »

Haha, I can imagine Leo ringing up Mary Lou to tell her to get SF to take up their seats.

To be fair, Sinn Fein and their seats is an issue of subtlety that requires explaining 100 years of Irish history to make sense. I wouldn't expect a foreign journalist to get it unless their specific area of focus was Irish politics.

Journalists tend to consider foreign parliaments as one contiguous governing body, but domestic parliament is a mish-mash of warring factions. They forget that other parliaments have their own opposition parties, bun fights and historical squabbles. This is as true of the BBC as it is of RTE.

That said, it would be fair to say that the Irish know a lot more about UK politics than the British know about Irish politics. Given the close relationship between the two countries, it seems more than a little bit incompetent for a UK political commentator to not understand the basics.

LeinsterDub

Imreoir2 wrote: »

EDIT: The article says 8 former labour MP's, I thought there was only 7? Does that bring them up to 11?

A other one joined late last night / this morning