Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Akrasia

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

A better analogy is being promised a Lamborghini*
....


*Lamborghini also make tractors.

Ive just finally understood that 1990s lotto ad

tuxy

Akrasia wrote: »

Ive just finally understood that 1990s lotto ad

The one with the Ferrari and the farmer?

Akrasia

tuxy wrote: »

The one with the Ferrari and the farmer?

Damnit i remember it being a lambo

johnnyskeleton

tuxy wrote: »

The one with the Ferrari and the farmer?

Akrasia wrote: »

Damnit i remember it being a lambo

Mod note:

Please take this to the Automobiles and Lottery forum. The topic of this thread is Brexit

BobbyBobberson

Interesting comments from Ivan Rogers today. A good thread, found the self fulfilling prophecy comment a good point.

https://twitter.com/OpenEurope/status/1098255257434492928

prawnsambo

I have come across one issue that will necessarily curtail any proposed A50 extension. And that's the fact that the last meeting of the EuroParl is on 18th April which is the last day that they can give effect to any agreement. Go beyond that and we're into July after the new parliament sits and all the constitutional issues that will raise. So really only a three week extension at most. Tick tock.

An Ciarraioch

Tom Newton Dunn saying Wednesday will see the major Tory showsown:

http://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1098346310070087681

Capt'n Midnight

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

She started this and through gritted teeth is seeing it through..

God help us all.

Brexit could be explained by the fourth group.

I divide my officers into four groups. There are clever, diligent, stupid, and lazy officers. Usually two characteristics are combined.

Some are clever and diligent -- their place is the General Staff.

The next lot are stupid and lazy -- they make up 90 percent of every army and are suited to routine duties.

Anyone who is both clever and lazy is qualified for the highest leadership duties, because he possesses the intellectual clarity and the composure necessary for difficult decisions.

One must beware of anyone who is stupid and diligent -- he must not be entrusted with any responsibility because he will always cause only mischief.
- Kurt von Hammerstein-Equord

Capt'n Midnight

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

The UK is in major trouble, it's clear from PMQ that Corbyn has not a single notion of a plan either.

Derek Hatton suspended by the Labour party already

Brexit is just a never ending car crash as both parties try to undermine themselves.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/1098204530427285505

What the British have failed to understand for two years. The smaller EU countries are backing Ireland not out of some sort of altruistic goodness but looking down the road, potentially at Russia and saying if we expect solidarity in the future we need to offer it now.

Topgear on Dave

LeinsterDub wrote: »

What the British have failed to understand for two years. The smaller EU countries are backing Ireland not out of some sort of altruistic goodness but looking down the road, potentially at Russia and saying if we expect solidarity in the future we need to offer it now.

This is not going to be cool if Russia ever invades Latvia, they appeal for help and we explain to them our long time policy of military neutrality. :pac:

We are going to owe some serious favours at the end of this.

Professor Moriarty

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/1098204530427285505

What the British have failed to understand for two years. The smaller EU countries are backing Ireland not out of some sort of altruistic goodness but looking down the road, potentially at Russia and saying if we expect solidarity in the future we need to offer it now.

This from the Slovenian president, Borut Pahor, today: “Something not acceptable to Dublin would not be acceptable to Slovenia either.”

Imreoir2

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

This is not going to be cool if Russia ever invades Latvia, they appeal for help and we explain to them our long time policy of military neutrality. :pac:

We are going to owe some serious favours at the end of this.

To be fair, while our government should never engage in a military intervention like the Iraq war, if a member of the EU is invaded by a forighn power, I think that every member of the EU should be obligated to help in any way they can.

Headshot

Always great to see our friends in Europe having our backs. Hopefully we return the favor some day

Strazdas

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

This is not going to be cool if Russia ever invades Latvia, they appeal for help and we explain to them our long time policy of military neutrality. :pac:

We are going to owe some serious favours at the end of this.

Latvia is an EU and NATO member. Russia would want to have taken leave of their senses to invade the place.

Capt'n Midnight

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Derek Hatton suspended by the Labour party already

Brexit is just a never ending car crash as both parties try to undermine themselves.

There's 36 days to Brexit.

And now is the time to let a 71 year old expelled from the Labour 33 years ago for being too Militant to rejoin ?

Complete PR disaster , best case scenario is that they scare off potential centre voters for being seen as too hard left.

Now they look incompetent as well, I thought the plan was to win the next election , not scare off potential voters.

Irish Praetorian

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

This is not going to be cool if Russia ever invades Latvia, they appeal for help and we explain to them our long time policy of military neutrality. :pac:

We are going to owe some serious favours at the end of this.

To be fair, Ireland's words at the moment might look more appealing than a Brexit Britain where the political zeitgeist is epitomised by Nigel Farage's incredulous attitude toward closer European defence cooperation. The EU is a great prospect for smaller countries like Ireland and Latvia to come together in seeking both a mutual defence and better prospects for their populations. Britain's decision to walk away from that project quite understandably disappoints the desire among Eastern European states for lock step unity in the face of threats abroad.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This from the Slovenian president, Borut Pahor, today: “Something not acceptable to Dublin would not be acceptable to Slovenia either.”

Ireland has been fostering good relations with these small EU states too. Helen McEntee was in Slovenia on a two day working visit four weeks ago and met a load of political leaders.

murphaph

Strazdas wrote: »

Latvia is an EU and NATO member. Russia would want to have taken leave of their senses to invade the place.

Depends entirely on what Vlad tells Donald to do in that event. I would not want to be relying on the US to intervene against Russian aggression given who occupies the White House right now. The EU as a whole needs its own integrated defence system. Ireland should of course be a part of that. We should certainly be prepared to go to war if an EU nation is invaded.

Calina

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Could the euro elections be completely postponed I wonder?
Extending art. 50 might be the cover the EU would need to do so.

That would be a stupid, stupid response to this issue and Article 50 extension is not a get out clause to suspend democracy.

Akrasia

Strazdas wrote: »

Latvia is an EU and NATO member. Russia would want to have taken leave of their senses to invade the place.

Russia are trying to undermine both the EU and NATO through political interference so far resulting in Brexit and Trump.

Latvia know that their security depends on the integrity of those institutions

prawnsambo

The Indo are back with the FUD this morning. Saying that the UK are going to use quotas to import Brazilian beef tariff free by... Well... just ignoring MFN rules apparently. In other words, setting a tariff-free quota that apparently only the Brazilians can avail of. All of this is 'understood' without quotes and without any back up. It would just apply to Braxil because... And they could 'flood the market' because... nothing. I've quoted the relevant bit here so you don't have to click.

UK Food and Rural Affairs Secretary Michael Gove is leading the charge to protect British farmers, this week warning of onerous tariffs on produce flowing into the UK. But in a further escalation, it is understood Mr Gove is planning ‘tariff rate quotas’ to allow certain amounts of produce into the UK without tariffs.

This would apply to products like poultry and beef – and would benefit massive producers such as Brazil at Ireland’s expense. Brazil produces huge amounts of beef cheaply so would be able to flood the UK market.

Akrasia

Akrasia wrote: »

Russia are trying to undermine both the EU and NATO through political interference so far resulting in Brexit and Trump.

Latvia know that their security depends on the integrity of those institutions

Has this really become the believed story by now? Russia didn't cause either.

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

Has this really become the believed story by now? Russia didn't cause either.

Well 'cause' is a bit of a red herring. 'Influence' would probably be more accurate.

prawnsambo

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well 'cause' is a bit of a red herring. 'Influence' would probably be more accurate.

Even then, it's nonsense, and pinning either on some foreign entity is just ignoring the actual societal problems that resulted in them.

Had Russia done nothing whatsoever, Trump and Brexit would have still happened.

murphaph

Deleted User wrote: »

Even then, it's nonsense, and pinning either on some foreign entity is just ignoring the actual societal problems that resulted in them.

Had Russia done nothing whatsoever, Trump and Brexit would have still happened.

Strongly disagree.

Both votes were tight. Both were influenced heavily by targeted social media advertising. They only needed to move 2% from remain to leave to win in the case of Brexit.

This is not to say there are not deeper issues causing many people generally to be unhappy with their lot, but Russia was able to take advantage of that. Polling data told them both Brexit and Trump would be close run so they knew they just had to target those who could be influenced. A meagre investment of a few hundred million has done more damage to the west than the trillions spent during the "old" cold war.

Akrasia

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Has this really become the believed story by now? Russia didn't cause either.

They certainly had a role to play. Its nothing new. The US and Russia have been interfering in domestic politics of each other and third parties since well before the cold war.

They very likely provided millions of pounds in campaign funds to the leave campaign, allegedly through Aaron Banks, and they have dedicated teams of cyber trolls who influence political discourse through social media

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_Research_Agency

They're not doing it for entertainment or to make friends.

Christy42

Strazdas wrote: »

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I agree with all that, but that's not the comparison I was making. The white paper on abortion legislation formed a central part of the campaign for the 36th amendment, even though that's not what was actually, legally, voted on. If the government has turned around and said "nah, we're going to leave the old 19C law in place" people would have rightly felt short changed, to put it mildly. It would be a full blown crisis. The white paper was part of the campaign and people thought that's what they were getting. That was politically binding.


Bringing this back to Brexit, during the campaign, Cameron promised he would submit art. 50 the very next day after the result, that the process would begin, undefined and all as it was and 52% said ok, do that.

The electorate then had an opportunity to put the brakes on the process, when they could see that there was no plan, and they still voted over 4:1 for parties that promised to implement the referendum result.

Can't you see why it would be so difficult to abandon it now? The referendum must be implemented, or really you would have to lose faith in democracy.

If the polls showed there was an appetite for a second referendum, id agree there should be one. But unfortunately they don't.

That seems a very flimsy / shallow reason to be implementing the most massive constitutional change on a country, change that will impact for decades to come ; "people will be upset if we don't implement the result and will lose faith in democracy".

There's not much in the way of legal talk going on here, more stuff about "emotions" and "feelings" (and what about the 35 million adults in the UK who didn't vote for Brexit.....where do they fit into the equation and is anyone bothered about what they think of the democratic process?).

In Ireland the proposal was put forward before the referendum. In the UK very little was put forward as to how to deal with Brexit and by and large all those promises have been broken.

As you say that was never voted on so it is closer to Rees Mogg's proposal of a second referendum in the event of a brexit win. Or closer to the promise of staying in the single market. Why were none of them politically binding?

What a yes vote in the 8th means has not changed since the vote. What a vote for Brexit means has, drastically if you believed some of the leave campaigners when going for your vote.

I think many of us have known this thread has been slipping over the last few months. If it descents to the absolute scutter that is allowed in the Trump thread, there won't be any point in coming here either.

Go to conspiracy theories or go to the Russian interference thread. Don't come here and poison discourse with assertions that Russia caused Trump and Brexit, before backpeddling to "influence" or "factor". If that's what you think it is, then say it from the start.

Akrasia

Christy42 wrote: »

In Ireland the proposal was put forward before the referendum. In the UK very little was put forward as to how to deal with Brexit and by and large all those promises have been broken.

As you say that was never voted on so it is closer to Rees Mogg's proposal of a second referendum in the event of a brexit win. Or closer to the promise of staying in the single market. Why were none of them politically binding?

What a yes vote in the 8th means has not changed since the vote. What a vote for Brexit means has, drastically if you believed some of the leave campaigners when going for your vote.

It all comes down to informed consent. Consent on its own is invalid if its not informed.

If i consent to a medical proceedure to remove an ingrown toenail, and am told it just involves removing a part of the toenail, it doesn't give the surgeon permission to amputate a healthy toe.

The people were clearly not informed of the consequences of their vote. This is blindingly obvious given that 2.5 years later there still isnt any majority either in parliament, or among the general public for what brexit actually means (other than 'brexit means brexit')