Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo

RobMc59 wrote: »

Indeed,it looks like beef will be dearer in the UK until they can increase supply and cheaper in Ireland due to a glut!
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/brexit-tariffs-could-force-irish-beef-farmers-out-of-the-british-market/

At least Ireland has another 60+ countries where it can sell its beef with no tariff barriers.

10000maniacs

lawred2 wrote: »

Should have heard a BBC vox pop from her constituency... depressing. Talk about not knowing what you've got. The majority were plain nasty and vindictive in tone.

Obviously it's just a vox pop and a small sample set so not necessarily representative but those 'contributors' will fully deserve whatever is coming their way.

Even after two years - the hate is still strong in them.

Both Channel 4 and the BBC had reporters at a pensioner dance off in her constituency. Everybody was over 70 and stated that they voted to leave.
She has her work cut out in that constituency.

Harry Palmr

RobMc59

What? It'll still be subject to a massive tariff in a no deal WTO trading environment.

If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, both fall back on the World Trade Organization’s most favoured nation tariffs, which means import duties on everyday food items from fruit to cheese.

This would mean a 42% tariff on imported cheddar, 46% on mozzarella, 40% on beef, 21% on tomatoes and 15.5% on apples, the BRC said.

The Irish meat sector will take a pounding if the worst happens, is the government here seeking new markets?

bob mcbob

downcow wrote: »

You have a habit of answering a question with another question. but let me put it a less contentious way - Are you suggesting that British society is in such a mess and the EU and Ireland are the opposite. You say the reason UK people want out is because of systemic problems in UK society - that just seems like a bit of a stretch

Yes I would say 20% living in poverty is a pretty scathing position for the UK

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_Kingdom

I can understand why these people voted for change.

I wonder who the right wing press will blame when the UK has left the EU.

gmisk

bob mcbob wrote: »

Yes I would say 20% living in poverty is a pretty scathing position for the UK

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_Kingdom

I can understand why these people voted for change.

I wonder who the right wing press will blame when the UK has left the EU.

LGBT People, thats usually who the dailymail default back to.
===================================================
If you mean by change, making things even worse then yes they voted for that, if they trusted people like Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees Mogg they are kind of asking for it, they should have educated themselves before blindly voting leave.

But it wasnt just driven by people in poverty I saw an interview with a guy with successful flower business, he is fretting and is insanely worried he is going to go out of business....how did he vote..."leave".....how would he vote now....."probably still leave"...honestly what can you do!

VinLieger

gmisk wrote: »

LGBT People, thats usually who the dailymail default back to.

Would make sense considering all the Russian money being pumped into the UK right wing orgs

bob mcbob

bob mcbob wrote: »

Yes I would say 20% living in poverty is a pretty scathing position for the UK

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_Kingdom

I can understand why these people voted for change.

I wonder who the right wing press will blame when the UK has left the EU.

The EU and Ireland, naturally.

ancapailldorcha

downcow wrote: »

Well at least you are clear (in your mind) who is to blame for all the ills in the world.
If i react to your ridiculous and offensive statements I'll be getting another break for a few days so I am going to let them slide

If all you want to post about is the risk of getting banned then don't post. Final warning.

Leroy42

10000maniacs wrote: »

Both Channel 4 and the BBC had reporters at a pensioner dance off in her constituency. Everybody was over 70 and stated that they voted to leave.
She has her work cut out in that constituency.

Anna stated that the C4 Vox pop had been undertaken in a particular part of the constituency (can't recall the name) which was very prop Labour so, according to her, not covering the whole/

But she won by quite a small margin I think, and it seems to be a swing seat so its hard to know what will happen.

but she is taking a position and will be judged on that. Compare that to Labour, who seem to be suggesting staying in the CU/SM which is, according to many BRINO. Hardly a given which way it would go.

RobMc59

prawnsambo wrote: »

At least Ireland has another 60+ countries where it can sell its beef with no tariff barriers.

If you read the article it says Ireland and the UK will lose out-i made no other comments other than beef will be dearer in the UK and cheaper in Ireland.

RobMc59

Harry Palmr wrote: »

RobMc59

What? It'll still be subject to a massive tariff in a no deal WTO trading environment.



The Irish meat sector will take a pounding if the worst happens, is the government here seeking new markets?

You worry about Ireland's excess of produce and the UK will have a deficit-the world is going mad-lets hope this can be fixed for ALL parties !

Laois_Man

RobMc59 wrote: »

Indeed,it looks like beef will be dearer in the UK until they can increase supply and cheaper in Ireland due to a glut!
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/brexit-tariffs-could-force-irish-beef-farmers-out-of-the-british-market/

Even if there were a hard Brexit on March 29th (and I don't believe there will be), the UK are still going to be looking for a free trade agreement afterwards - they need one far more than the EU as a whole does, so this kind of posturing by Gove should be taken with a pinch of salt for his Brazilian beef!

bob mcbob

Laois_Man wrote: »

Even if there were a hard Brexit on March 29th (and I don't believe there will be), the UK are still going to be looking for a free trade agreement afterwards - they need one far more than the EU as a whole does, so this kind of posturing by Gove should be taken with a pinch of salt for his Brazilian beef!

I don't believe there will be a no deal either but the assessment is that food prices will rise 20% pretty much overnight. Think of what that would do to a society already divided due to Brexit. He may not have any choice.

Seth Brundle

I tend to view these ratings agencies at a bit of suspicion but nonetheless...
Fitch puts UK credit rating on negative watch

The UK faces a credit rating downgrade because of the mounting risk that it will leave the EU without a transition deal, according to a leading rating agency.

Fitch has put the UK’s double A credit rating on negative watch over the growing uncertainty over Brexit, a move that signals the increasing likelihood of a downgrade.

There is “heightened uncertainty” over the outcome of the Brexit process, Fitch said, and an “increased risk of a disruptive no-deal Brexit” that the agency believes “would lead to substantial disruption to UK economic and trade prospects”.
...
In the event of a no-deal Brexit, the UK faces a recession similar to that of the 1990s, with a 2 per cent decline in GDP over 18 months, Fitch said.

https://www.ft.com/content/14622ec4-3562-11e9-bd3a-8b2a211d90d5

judeboy101

Food prices and all prices will rise even with a deal because any excuse is a good excuse to raise prices. Recent vat increase a case in point. Prices have gone up way up more than vat increase.

prawnsambo

RobMc59 wrote: »

If you read the article it says Ireland and the UK will lose out-i made no other comments other than beef will be dearer in the UK and cheaper in Ireland.

I did. I just added something that wasn't in it.

Laois_Man

bob mcbob wrote: »

I don't believe there will be a no deal either but the assessment is that food prices will rise 20% pretty much overnight. Think of what that would do to a society already divided due to Brexit. He may not have any choice.

Article 24 of WTO regulations on trade rarely gets mentioned in all these doomsday scenarios. If UK and EU decide to invoke it, both sides can have a temporary free trade agreement for anything up to 10-years while they negotiate a formal, permanent one. The UK would certainly invoke it quickly after March 29th, and they only reason why it wouldn't be invoked on the EU side is if they are totally motivated to 'get' the UK, even at their own, albeit lesser, expense!

prawnsambo

Laois_Man wrote: »

Article 24 of WTO regulations on trade rarely gets mentioned in all these doomsday scenarios. If UK and EU decide to invoke it, both sides can have a temporary free trade agreement for anything up to 10-years while they negotiate a formal, permanent one. The UK would certainly invoke it quickly after March 29th, and they only reason why it wouldn't be invoked on the EU side is if they are totally motivated to 'get' the UK, even at their own, albeit lesser, expense!

This is a red herring. Firstly there is no Article 24 of the WTO agreement. It stops at 16 iirc. Article 24 of the GATT is what's being referenced. And that requires both parties to be in talks with a view to a customs union or a free-trade area. And to agree that that's what they're doing.

And for the sake of clarity, a free-trade area is not a free trade agreement (FTA). That's a distinction that those who are pushing this narrative are waving past because a free-trade area is effectively what the EU is.

EdgeCase

Laois_Man wrote: »

Article 24 of WTO regulations on trade rarely gets mentioned in all these doomsday scenarios. If UK and EU decide to invoke it, both sides can have a temporary free trade agreement for anything up to 10-years while they negotiate a formal, permanent one. The UK would certainly invoke it quickly after March 29th, and they only reason why it wouldn't be invoked on the EU side is if they are totally motivated to 'get' the UK, even at their own, albeit lesser, expense!

That's "a customs union" which would be on EU terms largely, it being the much bigger player with the fully developed regulatory framework, and the UK's hardline Brexiteers are against it.

Akrasia

bob mcbob wrote: »

Yes I would say 20% living in poverty is a pretty scathing position for the UK

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_Kingdom

I can understand why these people voted for change.

I wonder who the right wing press will blame when the UK has left the EU.

They'll still blame the EU.

Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia

They'll blame the EU for punishing and bullying the UK if they leave with no deal, and if they somehow cobble together a deal that can pass the HOC, they'll blame the EU because the UK didn't leave the EU properly.

EdgeCase

Akrasia wrote: »

They'll still blame the EU.

Eastasia was always at war with Eurasia

They'll blame the EU for punishing and bullying the UK if they leave with no deal, and if they somehow cobble together a deal that can pass the HOC, they'll blame the EU because the EU didn't leave the EU properly.

and therein lies the problem : May is still trying to be all things to all people ad come up with a solution that satisfies two completely contradictory positions.

10000maniacs

Laois_Man wrote: »

Article 24 of WTO regulations on trade rarely gets mentioned in all these doomsday scenarios. If UK and EU decide to invoke it, both sides can have a temporary free trade agreement for anything up to 10-years while they negotiate a formal, permanent one. The UK would certainly invoke it quickly after March 29th, and they only reason why it wouldn't be invoked on the EU side is if they are totally motivated to 'get' the UK, even at their own, albeit lesser, expense!

Just to paraphrase one of my previous posts from a few weeks ago, all EU27 countries and 164 WTO countries have a veto on Article 24-GATT being implemented. Why would the EU27 accept 10 more years of UK cherry-picking after they have spent 2 years negotiating Mays deal?
And Why would the USA, Japan, China & Canada accept the UK having a more preferable deal with the EU than they have? And it rides roughshod over the Irish border question as the WTO will not allow a soft border for the 10 years of tariff free trade with the EU.

bob mcbob

gmisk wrote: »

LGBT People, thats usually who the dailymail default back to.
===================================================
If you mean by change, making things even worse then yes they voted for that, if they trusted people like Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees Mogg they are kind of asking for it, they should have educated themselves before blindly voting leave.

But it wasnt just driven by people in poverty I saw an interview with a guy with successful flower business, he is fretting and is insanely worried he is going to go out of business....how did he vote..."leave".....how would he vote now....."probably still leave"...honestly what can you do!

Yes to quote John Lennon (working class hero) it still pretty much holds.

"They keep you doped with religion and sex and tv
and you think you are so clever and classless and free
but you are still f**king peasants as far as I can see"

judeboy101

bob mcbob wrote: »

Yes to quote John Lennon (working class hero) it still pretty much holds.

"They keep you doped with religion and sex and tv
and you think you are so clever and classless and free
but you are still f**king peasants as far as I can see"

In fairness he was a millionaire and a wife beater, so not exactly typical of the working class. No doubt had he been alive today he would have moved Beatles revenue off shore to avoid tax.

bob mcbob

judeboy101 wrote: »

In fairness he was a millionaire and a wife beater, so not exactly typical of the working class. No doubt had he been alive today he would have moved Beatles revenue off shore to avoid tax.

Off topic but he was a working class boy who made it and the song is a real love / hate to where he came from.

listermint

lawred2 wrote: »

Should have heard a BBC vox pop from her constituency... depressing. Talk about not knowing what you've got. The majority were plain nasty and vindictive in tone.

Obviously it's just a vox pop and a small sample set so not necessarily representative but those 'contributors' will fully deserve whatever is coming their way.

Even after two years - the hate is still strong in them.

I wouldnt trust any vox pop coming out of the BBC these days, not a word. Their editorial line is to hide and not invite voices from a remain background and they seem to actively discouraged reasoned analysis.

First Up

Harry Palmr wrote: »

RobMc59


The Irish meat sector will take a pounding if the worst happens, is the government here seeking new markets?

Bord Bia have representative offices in France, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Poland, USA, Russia, China, UAE and Singapore and take part in close to 30 international Trade Fairs across Europe, Middle East and Asia so I'd say the answer is probably yes.

murphaph

Harry Palmr wrote: »

RobMc59

What? It'll still be subject to a massive tariff in a no deal WTO trading environment.



The Irish meat sector will take a pounding if the worst happens, is the government here seeking new markets?

Constantly. I can buy Irish beef, lamb, butter, cheese and yogurt in my local German supermarket. You could only buy Irish butter when I came here.

Harry Palmr

Danish butter you mean?

irelandrover

murphaph wrote: »

Constantly. I can buy Irish beef, lamb, butter, cheese and yogurt in my local German supermarket. You could only buy Irish butter when I came here.

Same here in the Netherlands, Irish beef is the main beef in the local supermarket since about 2 years ago. Kerrygold is available on the shelf in the last year.