Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

MrMusician18

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Absolutely is part of the WA - read fifth paragraph beginning "RECALLING" (after UNDERLINING, for clarity):

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/the-irish-chapter-of-the-draft-brexit-withdrawal-agreement-1.3697971

As for the Cox advice, they want a codicil underlining the temporary nature of the backstop - the actual text of the Protocol will remain unchanged.

I stand corrected. Thanks.

judeboy101

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I stand corrected. Thanks.

So it is in it? And EU/uk are trying to negotiate a legal way for it to be "negated" without opening the WA again? Cox wouldn't be in Brussels unless the EU were willing to throw them a bone.

Capt'n Midnight

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Oh dear, it turns out this Brexit malarkey is more difficult than we thought...

So in recent days the UK has managed a diplomatic faux-pas with Germany. And China. And Japan.

That's actually impressive.

Water John

Well Judeboy, TM and others have been trotting back and forth to Brussels over the past few months and have always returned empty handed but you have always seen a glass half empty. Just waiting and not even waiting for the EU or our Govn't to betray us.

Spanish Eyes

This form of words is just to make us all punch drunk.

What does it actually mean for the Border and GFA anyway. I am a bit baffled, and not ashamed to admit it.

Any comment from our own Government does anyone know? Probably keeping their powder dry and relying on the EU to parse and analyse it now.

We need to hold our nerve. Hopefully the EU will back us to the hilt. Am getting a bit jittery about that right now though, but maybe that's just me.

Enzokk

judeboy101 wrote: »

I'm shocked that the Irish government allowed "unless and until" to be removed from WA. What legal deal have we that prevents the UK from legally leaving backstop?

Well you seem to be assuming that we have allowed it to be removed. You will either have to source that it has been, or have to wait to see if it will actually be the case.

Also, even if they get a legal codicil, what will that mean? Codicils are used mainly in wills so what legal status it will have in an legal agreement between the EU and UK is very much open to debate. So it can say anything, when in fact it may mean nothing.

ancapailldorcha

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

We need to hold our nerve. Hopefully the EU will back us to the hilt. Am getting a bit jittery about that right now though, but maybe that's just me.

I'm not worrying about the EU backing the Irish at all. It's exactly what they've done so far from making the GFA and the border a top tier issue at the outset to the recent comments from the heads of the Baltic states. There is nothing whatsoever to the idea that the EU will abandon Ireland. It's a nonsense and the British press are more than happy to propagate it.

I'm much more concerned at the amount of misery and suffering the Conservative party is about to inflict on the country it professes to love. There's an almost daily stream of bad news and few, if any at the top seem to care. The insane thing is that they seem to have no instinct for self preservation. Nicola Sturgeon, arguably the most capable leader in the Kingdom will no doubt be planning for an Indyref2. I'm personally against Scottish independence but that argument will be much harder to make in a no deal Brexit scenario that everyone but the fanatics knows will be a disaster unless certain industries are basically gutted and sacrificed at the altar of Brexit.

darem93

I couldn't understand why many people in Scotland wanted independence back in 2014. This whole Brexit fiasco however has completely changed my mind and I genuinely think it would be the best option for them now. It will be a tight campaign but I can see it happening this time around if there is an indyref2. The Yes side would have to answer people's worries about currency etc. but I definitely think their arguments will be a lot stronger now than in 2014.

It's just a shame Scotland don't have a direct route into the EU in the same way the North does if they ever voted for Irish unity.

A Dub in Glasgo

darem93 wrote: »

I couldn't understand why many people in Scotland wanted independence back in 2014

You couln't understand why many people in a country want that country to be independent?

briany

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm not worrying about the EU backing the Irish at all. It's exactly what they've done so far from making the GFA and the border a top tier issue at the outset to the recent comments from the heads of the Baltic states. There is nothing whatsoever to the idea that the EU will abandon Ireland. It's a nonsense and the British press are more than happy to propagate it.

I'm much more concerned at the amount of misery and suffering the Conservative party is about to inflict on the country it professes to love. There's an almost daily stream of bad news and few, if any at the top seem to care. The insane thing is that they seem to have no instinct for self preservation. Nicola Sturgeon, arguably the most capable leader in the Kingdom will no doubt be planning for an Indyref2. I'm personally against Scottish independence but that argument will be much harder to make in a no deal Brexit scenario that everyone but the fanatics knows will be a disaster unless certain industries are basically gutted and sacrificed at the altar of Brexit.

It's one of the most damning things in Brexit that many British MPs have clearly chosen to put their party above the interests of their country. That's what should not be forgotten by the people of the UK whether they be Leave or Remain supporters. Not all British MPs have behaved this way of course, but enough have to completely paralyse the decision making process.

Shocking as it may be, there could be more important things in politics than remaining an MP or keeping your party together. There could be the very good of your country at stake.

If the UK breaks up over this whole thing, but the Conservative and Labour parties remain largely together, would currently sitting MPs look back and consider it a good day's work? If they take any satisfaction in the latter at the expense of the former, that's really just sick.

Imreoir2

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Yes I agree about Dominic Grieve. I had him on my radar for a while there, I always found him to be OK.

Maybe he will jump in the next few days to keep the momentum (sorry not Labour M), going once Anna Soubry and the other two ladies left. Maybe he is trying to fight from within. But it is a flippin hard slog just the same.

There really needs to be a bleed out from the Tories over the next few days I think. But the reality part of my brain says they won't.

I just hope that the defections from the Tories were not in vain. They are all great women of courage. Maybe the men are not so courageous..... we shall see.

Weather or not there are more defections over the next few days is not really the most significant thing to my mind, the fact that Remain/soft Brexit supporting MP's have found a way to be more of a threat than the ERG is the big story, if May annoys the remainers in her party there is a real and credible threat of further losses.

Imreoir2

judeboy101 wrote: »

I'm shocked that the Irish government allowed "unless and until" to be removed from WA. What legal deal have we that prevents the UK from legally leaving backstop?

The mechanism by which the backstop can be ended is explicitly outlined in the WA, it does not allow for the UK to leave unilaterally.

An Ciarraioch

Going by the Guardian tonight, the existence of TIG appears to have caused movement within both the Tories and Labour:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/21/starmer-pm-is-running-down-clock-so-mps-only-get-binary-choice

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/21/theresa-may-faces-ministerial-revolt-over-no-deal-brexit

54and56

judeboy101 wrote: »

I'm shocked that the Irish government allowed "unless and until" to be removed from WA. What legal deal have we that prevents the UK from legally leaving backstop?

If the UK leaves the backstop it leaves the entire WA and would put itself into a No Deal scenario. The WA isn't an a la carte set of options, you're either in adherence to all of it or you've repudiated all of it. No half in half out............which may come as a shock to a lot of ERG types!!

RobMc59

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

So in recent days the UK has managed a diplomatic faux-pas with Germany. And China. And Japan.

That's actually impressive.

Have you any more information on this (or possibly provide links)as I can`t seem to find which diplomatic slip ups you are referring to.

An Ciarraioch

RobMc59 wrote: »

Have you any more information on this (or possibly provide links)as I can`t seem to find which diplomatic slip ups you are referring to.

http://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1096333308265463808

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/18/japan-almost-cancelled-brexit-talks-high-handed-letter-liam-fox-jeremy-hunt?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Facebook

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/20/jeremy-hunt-urges-germany-to-rethink-saudi-arms-sales-ban

Hurrache

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Going by the Guardian tonight, the existence of TIG appears to have caused movement within both the Tories and Labour:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/21/starmer-pm-is-running-down-clock-so-mps-only-get-binary-choice

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/21/theresa-may-faces-ministerial-revolt-over-no-deal-brexit

Seems to be no need for that according to Paisley in an interview with RT and the Irish Times.

European leaders will soon put pressure on Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and the Government to “move aside” from the Brexit process so the EU and the UK can strike a deal, DUP MP Ian Paisley has suggested.
...
The North Antrim MP said he believed that EU businesspeople and leaders such as German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Emmanuel Macron would now be anxious to achieve a deal that is mutually satisfactory to the EU and the UK.

“If I was the German chancellor or the French president I would be saying to Mr Varadkar, ‘Listen mate, you have had enough fun with the politics of this; it is now time to get on with the real deal’,” Mr Paisley told The Irish Times..

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/paisley-expects-eu-to-pressure-ireland-to-move-aside-in-brexit-talks-1.3802079?mode=amp

Imreoir2

RobMc59 wrote: »

Have you any more information on this (or possibly provide links)as I can`t seem to find which diplomatic slip ups you are referring to.

The spat with Germany was over the sale of arms to Saudi Arabia, the UK wants to go on selling arms but Germany takes a dim view because of the loss of civillian life.

Japan reportedly considered ending trade talks becaus of discurtious lanugage in a letter that was sent urging greater speed in concluding an agreement. That is why Japan is now in the "definatly not going to happen by April" category on rolling over eisting trade deals.

Not sure about the China one though.

EDIT: Thats right, palns to send a taskforce to the pacific annoyed the Chinese.

Enzokk

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Not sure about the China one though.

China was the Defense Secretary stating they would deploy the aircraft carrier to the South China Sea. This cause China to pull out of talks with Hammond.

Hammond: UK-China relations 'not made simpler' by Williamson

The chancellor, Philip Hammond, has said the UK’s relationship with China “has not been made simpler” by the defence secretary’s threat to deploy a warship to the Pacific.

In a thinly veiled rebuke to Gavin Williamson, Hammond told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that decisions about the deployment of aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth should be a matter for the national security council.

Beijing reportedly pulled out of trade talks with Hammond earlier this month after Williamson announced that the carrier, carrying F-35 Lightning stealth jets, would be deployed to the region on its maiden operational voyage. Beijing has been involved in a dispute over navigation rights and territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Hurrache

RobMc59 wrote: »

Have you any more information on this (or possibly provide links)as I can`t seem to find which diplomatic slip ups you are referring to.

The German one was posted on this thread yesterday, the let's be friends from one side of the mouth, but we'll threaten consequences if you don't let us deal arms with Saudi Arabia from the other.

The Japanese one was also posted a few days ago at the time it happened.

Both incidents were discussed.

Capt'n Midnight

darem93 wrote: »

I couldn't understand why many people in Scotland wanted independence back in 2014. This whole Brexit fiasco however has completely changed my mind and I genuinely think it would be the best option for them now. It will be a tight campaign but I can see it happening this time around if there is an indyref2. The Yes side would have to answer people's worries about currency etc. but I definitely think their arguments will be a lot stronger now than in 2014.

It's just a shame Scotland don't have a direct route into the EU in the same way the North does if they ever voted for Irish unity.

Scotland might not have a direct route into the EU but should have no problems with EFTA.

In terms of population and as exporter of food and energy they are a much better fit than England.

Spanish Eyes

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Weather or not there are more defections over the next few days is not really the most significant thing to my mind, the fact that Remain/soft Brexit supporting MP's have found a way to be more of a threat than the ERG is the big story, if May annoys the remainers in her party there is a real and credible threat of further losses.

Interesting thought. But with so few days to go one wonders what the heck can be achieved and when.

Still, the threat of defecting by those you mention is a good one. I don't know if they have the bottle to do it right now, but maybe, as you say if the gauntlet is thrown down they just might.

Imreoir2

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Interesting thought. But with so few days to go one wonders what the heck can be achieved and when.

Still, the threat of defecting by those you mention is a good one. I don't know if they have the bottle to do it right now, but maybe, as you say if the gauntlet is thrown down they just might.

The threat was always there, and now that some MP's have proved that they do have the bottle to do it, it makes the threat of defection by the rest a far more potent one, especially as every MP May loses bringes her one step closer to to losing her already razor thin majority.

FrancieBrady

Seen Grieve on Newsnight (I think) last night and he was non committal on defecting to the Independent Group.

Frank Bullitt

Hurrache wrote: »

Seems to be no need for that according to Paisley in an interview with RT and the Irish Times.


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/paisley-expects-eu-to-pressure-ireland-to-move-aside-in-brexit-talks-1.3802079?mode=amp

The delusion from the DUP is something a science fiction writer would be proud of.

EdgeCase

Gintonious wrote: »

The delusion from the DUP is something a science fiction writer would be proud of.

Well, Macron has Marine Le Pen biting at his heels so an easy Brexit is absolutely not in his interest and I would assume the DUP's probably one of the least networked parties in the entire EU so wouldn't have a clue what's going on anyway. Logically, from a French point of view, if Brexit is a disaster, it's going to be used as an illustration of what happens if you elect the rebranded FN, le Rassemblement national

Eurosceptic, religious fundamentalist parties with extremely right wing views tend not to be all that likely to be having chats with centrists on the continent over coffee. So, I would doubt that he's any inkling of what's going on outside Belfast and the ERG.

Enzokk

Gintonious wrote: »

The delusion from the DUP is something a science fiction writer would be proud of.

Some of the quotes from him is just amazing. He really is up there with the most delusional of Brexiteers when you see what he is actually saying.

“If I was the German chancellor or the French president I would be saying to Mr Varadkar, ‘Listen mate, you have had enough fun with the politics of this; it is now time to get on with the real deal’,” Mr Paisley told The Irish Times.

...

He said he was not being “pejorative” about Mr Varadkar “but that German industrialists and others are now bound to recognise that one thing that mainstay Europe wants out of Britain leaving is a good trade relationship with the fifth largest economy in the world”.

...

“I think they are bound to now say, ‘OK Leo, you have had enough with the politics here, you’re people as much as our people now need a deal, let’s get on to that’.

“If that sobers minds then hopefully we can get a trade deal and we can get this sorted.”

He has the Brexit bingo there, that Germany and France will pressurize Ireland and that German companies will put the pressure on as well.

EdgeCase

He said he was not being “pejorative” about Mr Varadkar “but that German industrialists and others are now bound to recognise that one thing that mainstay Europe wants out of Britain leaving is a good trade relationship with the fifth largest economy in the world”.

Well, according to most economic forecasts, it will soon be the world's seventh largest economy.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-rank/uk-economy-to-slip-to-seventh-biggest-in-world-in-2019-pwc-idUKKBN1OI00L

I just think it's important to be accurate with these things. I'm not being “pejorative” or anything.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting - 100 Tory MPs are prepared to push for an extension if they consider a no deal scenario to be likely next week:

http://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1098701458365734912

darem93

darem93 wrote: »

I couldn't understand why many people in Scotland wanted independence back in 2014. This whole Brexit fiasco however has completely changed my mind and I genuinely think it would be the best option for them now. It will be a tight campaign but I can see it happening this time around if there is an indyref2. The Yes side would have to answer people's worries about currency etc. but I definitely think their arguments will be a lot stronger now than in 2014.

It's just a shame Scotland don't have a direct route into the EU in the same way the North does if they ever voted for Irish unity.

There doesn't seem to have been a poll on the topic since early December, but excluding don't knows and refused to answer it's 53% to 47% in favour of no.

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask#line