Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

downcow

downcow wrote: »

I have little doubt most on here will take different view but there is definitely a sense up here that UK and Eu have held fairly firmly to thier lines but that the roi has now blinked. The expectation was that either Eu or UK would blink first.
The public info on roi preparations for no deal has def lowered concern of no deal and has demonstrated that much of the talk up to now has been project fear.
I think this will be helpful in oiling negotiations for both Eu and UK.
I think it demonstrates goodwill and more of a spirit of cooperation from roi. Fair play to them. A bit more of this from all parties involved will make a no deal and a border much less likely.

Link to what you think has happened?

gooch2k9

downcow wrote: »

I have little doubt most on here will take different view but there is definitely a sense up here that UK and Eu have held fairly firmly to thier lines but that the roi has now blinked. The expectation was that either Eu or UK would blink first.
The public info on roi preparations for no deal has def lowered concern of no deal and has demonstrated that much of the talk up to now has been project fear.
I think this will be helpful in oiling negotiations for both Eu and UK.
I think it demonstrates goodwill and more of a spirit of cooperation from roi. Fair play to them. A bit more of this from all parties involved will make a no deal and a border much less likely.
I have more confidence this morning that we will navigate our way through this

Assuming by 'up here' you mean NI, can you also drop this DUP style line of talking like your opinion represents all of NI. It doesn't.


As stated, nothing has even been published yet.

VinLieger

downcow wrote: »

I have little doubt most on here will take different view but there is definitely a sense up here that UK and Eu have held fairly firmly to thier lines but that the roi has now blinked. The expectation was that either Eu or UK would blink first.
The public info on roi preparations for no deal has def lowered concern of no deal and has demonstrated that much of the talk up to now has been project fear.
I think this will be helpful in oiling negotiations for both Eu and UK.
I think it demonstrates goodwill and more of a spirit of cooperation from roi. Fair play to them. A bit more of this from all parties involved will make a no deal and a border much less likely.
I have more confidence this morning that we will navigate our way through this

Any chance you could explain this further with any evidence to back up this bizarre opinion? Specifically in what way has the ROI "blinked"?

Fionn1952

Again, Downcow, you certainly don't speak for the North as a whole. Anyone I've spoken to from my home, around the border, absolutely would disagree with your perception of that. I have no doubt that SOME may share your....odd perspectives, but as usual, despite you claiming it as such, it is definitely not a widely held view in my own experience. We are not a homogenous people, there is a whole spectrum of views.

I'd really appreciate it if you stopped taking the liberty of claiming to speak for us all. If you have an opinion, share it as that. If you're claiming something as factual, back it up.

The plural of anecdote isn't data, and the chat you had down the pub with your mates isn't really equivalent to opinion polls.

Now, establishing that it is your opinion, not 'the North' acting like the Borg and speaking through you.....I would love to get a bit of insight on what actually goes through your head when you say that Ireland demonstrating how far ahead they are with No Deal preparations than the UK is somehow weakening the EU negotiating position?


It seems like you've set your mind a certain way and would claim absolutely anything as, 'evidence of blinking first'. I suspect that if the Irish government WASN'T discussing No Deal preparation, you'd be on here calling that a victory too.

downcow

So Ireland is pushing forward with 16 pieces of legislation, "to try to shelter Ireland from the doomsday scenario of the UK crashing out of the EU"*. 16 pieces that have not been published yet.

Yet...

downcow wrote:

The public info on roi preparations for no deal has def lowered concern of no deal and has demonstrated that much of the talk up to now has been project fear.

What public into are you privvy to? Because from what I'm seeng, Project Reality has kicked in.

It looks a lot like Project Fear, except it takes place in Feb and March through the legislature.


*https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/22/ireland-steps-up-effort-shelter-economy-from-no-deal-brexit-omnibus-bill-readied

VinLieger

I dont understand how Ireland being evidently more prepared than the UK in every sense of the word for no deal constitutes to somehow "blinking first"

downcow

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Again, Downcow, you certainly don't speak for the North as a whole. Anyone I've spoken to from my home, around the border, absolutely would disagree with your perception of that. I have no doubt that SOME may share your....odd perspectives, but as usual, despite you claiming it as such, it is definitely not a widely held view in my own experience. We are not a homogenous people, there is a whole spectrum of views.

I'd really appreciate it if you stopped taking the liberty of claiming to speak for us all. If you have an opinion, share it as that. If you're claiming something as factual, back it up.

The plural of anecdote isn't data, and the chat you had down the pub with your mates isn't really equivalent to opinion polls.

Now, establishing that it is your opinion, not 'the North' acting like the Borg and speaking through you.....I would love to get a bit of insight on what actually goes through your head when you say that Ireland demonstrating how far ahead they are with No Deal preparations than the UK is somehow weakening the EU negotiating position?


It seems like you've set your mind a certain way and would claim absolutely anything as, 'evidence of blinking first'. I suspect that if the Irish government WASN'T discussing No Deal preparation, you'd be on here calling that a victory too.

Apologies. I need to be extremely careful with my words. I just reread what I wrote to see how anyone could deduct from it that I thought I was speaking for everyone in NI. I accept that at s stretch it could be manipulated to be taken to mean that.
Let me clarify. I absolutely do not speak for all Rather quite the contrary. I recognise the complete diversity of views up here.
I was reflecting the surprise expressed in a conversation this morning at work with half a dozen friends from various perspectives. The conversation related to radio Ulster reports this morning.
So again sorry if I worded it in a way that allowed that interpretation

downcow

EDit wrote: »

Can you point to this public info you mention? RTE site simply says it will be published today

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_ulster
I need to listen again now that you are all putting doubt in my mind but this is our main bbc radio morning programme up here.

Fionn1952

downcow wrote: »

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Again, Downcow, you certainly don't speak for the North as a whole. Anyone I've spoken to from my home, around the border, absolutely would disagree with your perception of that. I have no doubt that SOME may share your....odd perspectives, but as usual, despite you claiming it as such, it is definitely not a widely held view in my own experience. We are not a homogenous people, there is a whole spectrum of views.

I'd really appreciate it if you stopped taking the liberty of claiming to speak for us all. If you have an opinion, share it as that. If you're claiming something as factual, back it up.

The plural of anecdote isn't data, and the chat you had down the pub with your mates isn't really equivalent to opinion polls.

Now, establishing that it is your opinion, not 'the North' acting like the Borg and speaking through you.....I would love to get a bit of insight on what actually goes through your head when you say that Ireland demonstrating how far ahead they are with No Deal preparations than the UK is somehow weakening the EU negotiating position?


It seems like you've set your mind a certain way and would claim absolutely anything as, 'evidence of blinking first'. I suspect that if the Irish government WASN'T discussing No Deal preparation, you'd be on here calling that a victory too.

Apologies. I need to be extremely careful with my words. I just reread what I wrote to see how anyone could deduct from it that I thought I was speaking for everyone in NI. I accept that at s stretch it could be manipulated to be taken to mean that.
Let me clarify. I absolutely do not speak for all Under quite the contrary. I recognise the complete diversity of views up here.
I was reflecting the surprise expressed in a conversation this morning at work with half a dozen friends from various perspectives. The conversation related to radio Ulster reports this morning.
So again sorry if I worded it in a way that allowed that interpretation

'There is a sense up here' could not possibly be construed as talking about your own personal opinion rather than a general, widely held belief. At least have the spuds on you own what you say.

Would these, 'varied' perspectives all happen to be some variation of conservative unionist perspective?

While I won't outright call you a liar, I very much doubt you spoke to six people, and all six held your odd view, unless you were down at the local Orange lodge, or you work in Sammy Wilson's constituency office.

Leroy42

Jebus Downcow, your source is a single BBC radio program? Surely you have been reading this thread and can see that the BBC have a certain slant in their coverage, but even if they didn't using any single source for anything is always problematic.

The fact that you used that to crow over the ROI 'blinking first' tells me that you hearing what you want to hear rather than looking for the truth.

ROI may well end up conceding, on the basis that it is better for both the ROI and NI. You should think about that. Your own government are prepared to let NI pay the price for their desire to leave the EU whilst the ROI government is willing to sacrifice its positions to protect NI.

Its a sobering thought (or at least should be)

seamus

You're going to have to provide more than a link to an audio stream that most people here aren't going to listen to. Perhaps a summary of a salient points?

Tell me how

downcow wrote: »

I have little doubt most on here will take different view but there is definitely a sense up here that UK and Eu have held fairly firmly to thier lines but that the roi has now blinked. The expectation was that either Eu or UK would blink first.
The public info on roi preparations for no deal has def lowered concern of no deal and has demonstrated that much of the talk up to now has been project fear.
I think this will be helpful in oiling negotiations for both Eu and UK.
I think it demonstrates goodwill and more of a spirit of cooperation from roi. Fair play to them. A bit more of this from all parties involved will make a no deal and a border much less likely.
I have more confidence this morning that we will navigate our way through this

You are misinformed.
You do not understand the reality of what is happening.
You seem to think that just saying something in a public space makes it true.
Your position illustrates just how clueless many Brexit advocates still are.
You might end up as Brexit secretary for half an hour before the 29th of march.

Every day that has gone by since the referendum, the UK have collectively dug downwards to get themselves out of a hole. Shovel by shovel, bit by bit, always downward.

We in Ireland hoped that ye would not leave or when the decision was made that ye would leave with a deal which would allow us to still trade and interact positively together, now I'm thinking I hope ye go without dragging us down as well.

intellectual dosser

What Downcow is saying isnt completely daft, here's the sequence:

1. UK vote to leave the EU.
2. EU are concerned about the consequences, publicly describe the risks involved, this is labelled by Leavers as Project Fear
3. EU take responsible measures to make Brexit as easy as possible for the EU27, and even the UK itself.
4. Leavers claim victory, ask what all the fuss was about.

I don't care about the grandstanding. I'd like Irish jobs and Irish people living and travelling to the UK to enjoy the same rights as today. I want people in the North to experience the same peace and prosperity as they have for the past 20 years. Ultimately the UK are worse off outside the EU, they'll feel that pinch in time.

Peregrinus

downcow wrote: »

I have little doubt most on here will take different view but there is definitely a sense up here that UK and Eu have held fairly firmly to thier lines but that the roi has now blinked. The expectation was that either Eu or UK would blink first.
The public info on roi preparations for no deal has def lowered concern of no deal and has demonstrated that much of the talk up to now has been project fear . . .

This is the bit that puzzles me.

If

• public opinion in RoI is now getting worried about the quite serious effects for RoI of a no-deal Brexit;

• the government is preparing legislation to deal with the consequences and hopefully mitigate harm; and

• (as you suggest) the public or the government is sufficiently spooked to "blink"

how does any of that "demonstrate that much of the talk up to now has been project fear"? Surely it demonstrates the exact opposite - that the projected adverse consequences of Brexit are being accepted as likely to materialise; that they are not "project fear" at all?

downcow

Fionn1952 wrote: »

'There is a sense up here' could not possibly be construed as talking about your own personal opinion rather than a general, widely held belief. At least have the spuds on you own what you say.

Would these, 'varied' perspectives all happen to be some variation of conservative unionist perspective?

While I won't outright call you a liar, I very much doubt you spoke to six people, and all six held your odd view, unless you were down at the local Orange lodge, or you work in Sammy Wilson's constituency office.

Folks there is little space for my opinions on here. Go back and read what I wrote and then look at the reactions. It’s quite sad really.
Anyway, I stand by my position that I think it is helpful roi being more open about what happens in a no deal.
I think it’s helpful because it brings more reality. Now over to Eu and UK to have the balls to do the same even if it weakens their power also

intellectual dosser

downcow wrote: »

Folks there is little space for my opinions on here. Go back and read what I wrote and then look at the reactions. It’s quite sad really.
Anyway, I stand by my position that I think it is helpful roi being more open about what happens in a no deal.
I think it’s helpful because it brings more reality. Now over to Eu and UK to have the balls to do the same even if it weakens their power also

A good angle to get some reaction here.

The Irish Government have been describing the consequences of no deal since before the referendum, Enda Kenny even travelled to the UK to campaign. RTE have been broadcasting George Lee programs about the impact on both sides of the Irish Sea for two years.

It all got labelled Project Fear by Leavers, but now you want more?

Blowfish

downcow wrote: »

I think this will be helpful in oiling negotiations for both Eu and UK.

What negotiations? There are no negotiations happening as the UK (still) haven't yet come back with anything to negotiate.

Tell me how

Watching Question Time last night I was overcome with a sense of fatality about this.

A former Labour MP (now with The Independent Group) was on and a good portion of the show was given over to talking about how those that left their party should submit to by-elections. The journalist (and brexiteer) Ella Whelan was saying it was preposterous that they had campaigned on a manifesto and were not allowing the people to have their say given that it is now evident that they did not believe that manifesto.

Nobody pointed out the hypocrisy of forcibly suggesting by-elections are needed for this reason while refusing to consider a vote again on Brexit because it is clear now that Leave campaign claims were entirely false is undemocratic. In fact, the same journalist kept saying that suggesting a second vote is anti-democratic.

Hurrache

downcow wrote: »

Folks there is little space for my opinions on here.

Because that's all they are, and poor ones at that. You're devoid of reality and facts whenever you claim something. When questioned, you refuse to answer and deflect.

You demonstrate this several times a day, including just now with the post I'm replying to.

Tell me how

downcow wrote: »

Folks there is little space for my opinions on here. Go back and read what I wrote and then look at the reactions. It’s quite sad really.
Anyway, I stand by my position that I think it is helpful roi being more open about what happens in a no deal.
I think it’s helpful because it brings more reality. Now over to Eu and UK to have the balls to do the same even if it weakens their power also

You have no idea. You didn't know what Theresa May's red lines were a couple of weeks ago.

downcow

intellectual dosser wrote: »

A good angle to get some reaction here.

The Irish Government have been describing the consequences of no deal since before the referendum, Enda Kenny even travelled to the UK to campaign. RTE have been broadcasting George Lee programs about the impact on both sides of the Irish Sea for two years.

It all got labelled Project Fear, but now you want more?

My understanding (and I realise you guys are better placed than me to know what your government has prepared for no deal) is I have just listened to what I thought was s very positive report on how roi was about to take the heat and much of the fear out of how a no deal will impact cooperation between the two parts of Ireland. They seem to have planned for sharing many services eg healthcare emergencies, facilitated ability to drive both sides of border, lorry movements etc.
I was lead to believe this could not happen. Now it’s happening if we no deal as I am certain UK will cooperate.
It’s a good news story in my opinion but I get attacked as I think a small number on here would rather see desaster than see their government compromise/ cooperate
Thankfully I feel the quieter majority on here want to see solutions and will be happy that roi is making moves to accommodate each other

Igotadose

ROI prepping for no-deal brexit, getting (US term here) 'legislative vehicles' ready in preparation for crash-out: https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0222/1032054-brexit/

"The Government is publishing the full details of its legislation to deal with a no-deal Brexit.

It says the so-called Omnibus Bill will protect Irish citizens, support jobs and secure ongoing access to essential services across the island.

Described as a landmark piece of legislation, the bill encompasses 15 laws in one that the Government says will be needed to protect citizens and businesses in Ireland if Britain crashes out of the EU without a deal."

Government making loans available for farmers in preparation for no-deal: https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0222/1032073-emergency-aid-farmers-brexit/

This latter seems a bit suspect to me - loosening loan requirements, even in the case of small loans described in the article, is something to be suspicious of. For one thing, these kind of laws have a habit of lingering and becoming impossible to repeal in future.

But still, good to see the government try and get ready for the upcoming Brexit, catastrophic no-Deal or via WA.

Peregrinus

downcow wrote: »

My understanding (and I realise you guys are better placed than me to know what your government has prepared for no deal) is I have just listened to what I thought was s very positive report on how roi was about to take the heat and much of the fear out of how a no deal will impact cooperation between the two parts of Ireland. They seem to have planned for sharing many services eg healthcare emergencies, facilitated ability to drive both sides of border, lorry movements etc.
I was lead to believe this could not happen. Now it’s happening if we no deal as I am certain UK will cooperate.
It’s a good news story in my opinion but I get attacked as I think a small number on here would rather see desaster than see their government compromise/ cooperate
Thankfully I feel the quieter majority on here want to see solutions and will be happy that roi is making moves to accommodate each other

I think people's irritation arises from the fact that you suggested that all this means that RoI is "blinking". Brexiters normally use this term to suggest that the Uk is about to be given what it demands from the EU but, in the context of your post, that makes no sense. Are you using the term to mean something else?

downcow

Tell me how wrote: »

Watching Question Time last night I was overcome with a sense of fatality about this.

A former Labour MP (now with The Independent Group) was on and a good portion of the show was given over to talking about how those that left their party should submit to by-elections. The journalist (and brexiteer) Ella Whelan was saying it was preposterous that they had campaigned on a manifesto and were not allowing the people to have their say given that it is now evident that they did not believe that manifesto.

Nobody pointed out the hypocrisy of forcibly suggesting by-elections are needed for this reason while refusing to consider a vote again on Brexit because it is clear now that Leave campaign claims were entirely false is undemocratic. In fact, the same journalist kept saying that suggesting a second vote is anti-democratic.

I was told I was talking nonsense over last 24 hours for reflecting this opinion.
As I see it the extremes on both sides cannot see the hypocrisy involved here

First Up

Downcow seems to think preparation is weakness and ignoring reality is strength. Its a trait s/he shares with many in Westminster.

Too much Daily Express I'd say.

CrabRevolution

I'd love to know how someone can convince themselves that preparing for an an pending disaster is proof that the disaster wasn't ever going to happen.

I'm imagining someone seeing evacuations and flood defences before a hurricane as proof that there won't be a hurricane.

downcow

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think people's irritation arises from the fact that you suggested that all this means that RoI is "blinking". Brexiters normally use this term to suggest that the Uk is about to be given what it demands from the EU but, in the context of your post, that makes no sense. Are you using the term to mean something else?

Thanks pereginus. I’ll accept that. I understand many are hypersensitive around this.
I suppose I meant blink because it feels from where I am looking (before you all jump on me FROM WHERE I AM LOOKING) that roi have tried to display an uncompromising position and refused to even contemplate preparation for no deal. Which was certainly a scary outcome if there was no deal. I feel they have now changed their public position which is not as scary.
Blinked is an unhelpful term but I have to say it’s very mild to the words that are being used by remainers on here to refer to leavers positions and indeed to any views I express

Fionn1952

downcow wrote: »

Fionn1952 wrote: »

'There is a sense up here' could not possibly be construed as talking about your own personal opinion rather than a general, widely held belief. At least have the spuds on you own what you say.

Would these, 'varied' perspectives all happen to be some variation of conservative unionist perspective?

While I won't outright call you a liar, I very much doubt you spoke to six people, and all six held your odd view, unless you were down at the local Orange lodge, or you work in Sammy Wilson's constituency office.

Folks there is little space for my opinions on here. Go back and read what I wrote and then look at the reactions. It’s quite sad really.
Anyway, I stand by my position that I think it is helpful roi being more open about what happens in a no deal.
I think it’s helpful because it brings more reality. Now over to Eu and UK to have the balls to do the same even if it weakens their power also

Truly bizarre sense of victimhood about you, Downcow.

I might think your opinions are completely at odds with reality, and I'm certain that you have a massively overinflated sense of how common they are (as I dont think you socialise with nearly as broad a social circle as you claim, though you may well believe that you do). I don't, like many on here, think you're just trolling.....because I know people who share similar opinions to you.

I don't have the slightest problem with you sharing your opinion. I do have an issue with you painting your fringe views as commonly held, and an even greater issue with your bizarre extrapolations being presented as if they're in any way fact based, followed by a gish gallop of half-truths and often barely related nonsense.

If you were to debate the issue in a reasonable, intellectually honest manner, while most would still disagree with you, your perspective may actually provide some value for people here. Hell, we might even learn something.

jm08

Ian Paisley Jnr's interview on RT is worth listening to (particularly from about 7 mins in) where he compares Brexit to the Millenium bug. He goes on to say how the UK has been a very good neighbour of Irelands. He then goes onto claim that the UK allows Ireland to fish in its waters, but Ireland won't let UK/NI fish in Ireland's waters. He then claims that ROI sells milk into NI, but ROI won't buy milk from NI. He then goes onto say that Ireland doesn't have a big enough army to man the bother and that they are an unarmed army as well! Wonders who is going to police the border - saying it won't be NATO as UK is a member of NATO.

If this is what is being said in DUP circles, no wonder some think that the EU is going to backdown on the backstop.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VtH289IyWdw

swampgas

Interesting article by Ian Dunt on politics.co.uk about the impact the upcoming EU elections has on limiting any extension of Article 50:
http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/02/21/the-real-brexit-cliff-edge-is-not-on-march-29th-it-s-july-1s

If we really want to rule out no-deal, Britain needs to take part in the European elections. No-one wants to hear this, but it's true. Labour and the Tories both hate it. The Europeans despise it as much as the British government does. But it has to happen. If it doesn't, no-deal becomes much more likely.

I can't see anyone in the UK agreeing to elect new MEPs. So my reading of it is that even is the WA is agreed, there isn't enough time before July 1st to implement all the necessary legislation, so there would be quite a large risk of disruption & chaos in the interim.