Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

downcow

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Truly bizarre sense of victimhood about you, Downcow.

I might think your opinions are completely at odds with reality, and I'm certain that you have a massively overinflated sense of how common they are (as I dont think you socialise with nearly as broad a social circle as you claim, though you may well believe that you do). I don't, like many on here, think you're just trolling.....because I know people who share similar opinions to you.

I don't have the slightest problem with you sharing your opinion. I do have an issue with you painting your fringe views as commonly held, and an even greater issue with your bizarre extrapolations being presented as if they're in any way fact based, followed by a gish gallop of half-truths and often barely related nonsense.

If you were to debate the issue in a reasonable, intellectually honest manner, while most would still disagree with you, your perspective may actually provide some value for people here. Hell, we might even learn something.

Thanks helpful advise.
I suppose in a nutshell the modified public position of roi gov to me feels like Co-operation. It makes me feel warmer towards them and makes me want my gov to acknowledge roi governments more positive position. I suppose it’s the first tiny point in many weeks where I feel the downward spiral of fear from all has been slowed

VinLieger

downcow wrote: »

I suppose I meant blink because it feels from where I am looking (before you all jump on me FROM WHERE I AM LOOKING) that roi have tried to display an uncompromising position and refused to even contemplate preparation for no deal. Which was certainly a scary outcome if there was no deal. I feel they have now changed their public position which is not as scary.
Blinked is an unhelpful term but I have to say it’s very mild to the words that are being used by remainers on here to refer to leavers positions and indeed to any views I express

While this may be how you have felt it is completely at odds with reality and again really shows how much you need to broaden your media intake.

There have been endless stories published in the last 6-12 months about preperations being made for no deal in ROI.

In fact the existence of this omnibus bill was announced well before christmas, the details were not revealed but the scope and size was discussed as well as the urgency of it getting passed so implying that our government has been unwilling to even contemplate preparing for no deal is you either being knowingly disingenuous or an example of how little you are aware of thanks to the echo chamber of british tabloid media you cocoon yourself in

Hurrache

downcow wrote: »

Thanks pereginus. I’ll accept that. I understand many are hypersensitive around this.

Nothing to do with that, it's just tedious, especially when what you post is meaningless, just soundbites.

VinLieger

downcow wrote: »

Thanks helpful advise.
I suppose in a nutshell the modified public position of roi gov to me feels like Co-operation. It makes me feel warmer towards them and makes me want my gov to acknowledge roi governments more positive position. I suppose it’s the first tiny point in many weeks where I feel the downward spiral of fear from all has been slowed

There is no modified position, this is all in your imagination, this bill along with the scope and size has been known about for months

Call me Al

downcow wrote: »

Thanks helpful advise.
I suppose in a nutshell the modified public position of roi gov to me feels like Co-operation. It makes me feel warmer towards them and makes me want my gov to acknowledge roi governments more positive position. I suppose it’s the first tiny point in many weeks where I feel the downward spiral of fear from all has been slowed

So what is this "modified public position" you are claiming to feel all warm and fuzzy about.
Please provide details and a link to back up these details.
Otherwise your contributions this morning are pointless.

downcow

VinLieger wrote: »

In fact the existence of this omnibus bill was announced well before christmas, the details were not revealed n

This sums up the change fro roi gov which I believed is helpful. Now over to the others. It would be really helpful to get info like this from Eu.

ancapailldorcha

Uncivil posts deleted and sanctioned.

VinLieger

downcow wrote: »

This sums up the change fro roi gov which I believed is helpful. Now over to the others. It would be really helpful to get info like this from Eu.

But again its been known about for months so your implying that things have suddenly changed since yesterday makes no sense

Calina

downcow wrote: »

This sums up the change fro roi gov which I believed is helpful. Now over to the others. It would be really helpful to get info like this from Eu.

The EU is absolutely upfront about its preparation work, both collectively and at country level. The EU is not separate to Ireland. They have been a good deal more transparent than the UK in this respect. That you don't get info from the EU is because you do not want it. Meanwhile, are you aware of what has to be done in Westminster even if the WA is signed in 14 minutes?

I really think you need to assess UK preparedness with the same lens as you use for the Others.

Zubeneschamali

downcow wrote: »

it feels from where I am looking (before you all jump on me FROM WHERE I AM LOOKING) that roi have tried to display an uncompromising position and refused to even contemplate preparation for no deal. Which was certainly a scary outcome if there was no deal.

The Government have been making plans to handle No Deal for a long time, obviously they didn't write this omnibus 15-in-1 law overnight, they have been working away in the background. Varadkar told his officials to stop talking about preparations early last year, as there was a risk that the UK might cog our homework.


Does talking about it now mean they "blinked" and made No Deal less scary? No - it is now too late for the UK to copy our preparations, they don't have enough days in Parliament to pass the needed legislation even if they intended to do it.


This is simply the Irish Government calling their bluff - you want to exit with No Deal? OK - we are as ready as we'll ever be.

intellectual dosser

jm08 wrote: »

Ian Paisley Jnr's interview on RT is worth listening to (particularly from about 7 mins in) where he compares Brexit to the Millenium bug. He goes on to say how the UK has been a very good neighbour of Irelands. He then goes onto claim that the UK allows Ireland to fish in its waters, but Ireland won't let UK/NI fish in Ireland's waters. He then claims that ROI sells milk into NI, but ROI won't buy milk from NI. He then goes onto say that Ireland doesn't have a big enough army to man the bother and that they are an unarmed army as well! Wonders who is going to police the border - saying it won't be NATO as UK is a member of NATO.

If this is what is being said in DUP circles, no wonder some think that the EU is going to backdown on the backstop.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VtH289IyWdw

I made a post within the last hour saying I don't care about the grandstanders, but its tough not to get irked by Ian Paisley Jnr.

His credibility has been ruined over the past 12 months, but still he gets a microphone and true to form the misinformation and contradictions he speaks in that interview are crazy.

Zubeneschamali

VinLieger wrote: »

But again its been known about for months so your implying that things have suddenly changed since yesterday makes no sense

Nothing changed, but downcow heard about it on the BBC and since the BBC never mentioned it before, he thinks it is new.

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

I have little doubt most on here will take different view but there is definitely a sense up here that UK and Eu have held fairly firmly to thier lines but that the roi has now blinked. The expectation was that either Eu or UK would blink first.
The public info on roi preparations for no deal has def lowered concern of no deal and has demonstrated that much of the talk up to now has been project fear.
I think this will be helpful in oiling negotiations for both Eu and UK.
I think it demonstrates goodwill and more of a spirit of cooperation from roi. Fair play to them. A bit more of this from all parties involved will make a no deal and a border much less likely.
I have more confidence this morning that we will navigate our way through this

Even if something has moved - why is it always painted as 'blinking' as if it's a hard man game where someone has to be a winner?

If there has been movement it will be because finally the UK will have actually come forward with a satisfactory proposal..

I find it sad really that you can't see that the only party to these negotiations that have worked the hardest for the rights of those in northern Ireland is the Irish government. You still see it a fight to get one over the 'South'

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

Anyway, I stand by my position that I think it is helpful roi being more open about what happens in a no deal.
I think it’s helpful because it brings more reality.

downcow wrote: »

They seem to have planned for sharing many services eg healthcare emergencies, facilitated ability to drive both sides of border, lorry movements etc.
I was lead to believe this could not happen. Now it’s happening if we no deal as I am certain UK will cooperate.

downcow wrote: »

roi have tried to display an uncompromising position and refused to even contemplate preparation for no deal. Which was certainly a scary outcome if there was no deal. I feel they have now changed their public position which is not as scary.

What should scare you is that your future quality of life - in the event of a no-deal Brexit - will be in the hands of the government of the RoI and the EU. What you are seeing and hearing this morning is only what the rest of us (even those of us not living on the island of Ireland :rolleyes: ) have known about for months and years - and what we've tried to explain to you numerous times in the course of this thread.

Again, what should scare you is that the RoI/EU are - present tense - nailing down certain cross-border agreements that will protect our citizens and our businesses (some of whom are located in, or dependent on, NI). This is much the same as the EU as a whole deciding to unilaterally allow British planes to fly into EU airpsace - for our benefit. Your government, meanwhile, is still arguing with itself about what not to do about anything, everything and nothing.

It's easy for the UK not to "blink" when its eyes are scrunched tight shut.

judeboy101

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Really? May must have had at least 10 such meetings by now, telling the UK public she is negotiating, and afterwards the EU folks saying she brought no new asks or proposals. They are just tapdancing until the prospect of No Deal forces Westminster to take the WA and move on to fighting about the future relationship.

Ironically Cox's word carries way more weight in UK parliament than May. He wasn't in Brussels the last "ten times". There are going to be a lot of red faces when EU give UK a legal mechanism to leave backstop that doesn't guarantee a frictionless border, post withdrawal period.

VinLieger

judeboy101 wrote: »

Ironically Cox's word carries way more weight in UK parliament than May. He wasn't in Brussels the last "ten times". There are going to be a lot of red faces when EU give UK a legal mechanism to leave backstop that doesn't guarantee a frictionless border, post withdrawal period.

Post withdrawal period? Have fun getting a FTA approved by ireland without a border gurantee.

Daemonic

The 'roi blinking' would be if they signaled any change in their position regarding the WA & backstop. The announced bill is in fact the opposite, it's confirmation they will hold to the terms of the WA in it's current form and are preparing plans to mitigate the damage a no-deal could do for everyone on the island.

Water John

Ian Jr should come down and visit me in West Cork. I'm having my cup of tea ATM and I'm putting milk from Strathroy Daries (NI) into it.
He should stick to Indonesian politics, no credibility.

ilovesmybrick

seamus wrote: »

You're going to have to provide more than a link to an audio stream that most people here aren't going to listen to. Perhaps a summary of a salient points?

If you're interested it's at 09:30. Essentially the Business & Economics editor and the presenter both say that Coveney has said that ultimately there will be some form of backstop because even in a no deal situation eventually some arrangement will be arrived at. Which will be a backstop.

Jim Allister, the Brexiter, is the one that is coming out with the usual nonsense that it's only Ireland that needs a border and that Ireland is blinking. In fairness to the presenters they do pretty much attempt to point out some of his incorrect points and a balanced situation.

Edit: I would recommend listening actually, the presenter gets incredibly exasperated with Allister when he's unable to answer what technology he's talking about!

Zubeneschamali

judeboy101 wrote: »

There are going to be a lot of red faces when EU give UK a legal mechanism to leave backstop that doesn't guarantee a frictionless border, post withdrawal period.

And just one red face when that doesn't happen - yours.

farmchoice

i think what dowcow is suggesting is that the irish government is outlining a path to keeping the border ''open'' in a no deal scenario, that this legislation is in effect the precursor to a series of ''mini deals''.
so even with a no deal scenario we all continue to get on with our lives.

by protecting ourselves we protect the people of NI as well.

this has always been an argument of the no deal brexiters, in the event of no deal ROI and the EU as a whole will move to protect themselves thereby mitigating the damage to the UK as well.



there is some logic to this as we will do what we have to to protect ourselves but this will only be a short term advantage to the UK.

the EU will be happy to play a longer game when it comes to squeezing this new 3rd country that refused to honor its debts or obligations.

lawred2

jm08 wrote: »

Ian Paisley Jnr's interview on RT is worth listening to (particularly from about 7 mins in) where he compares Brexit to the Millenium bug. He goes on to say how the UK has been a very good neighbour of Irelands. He then goes onto claim that the UK allows Ireland to fish in its waters, but Ireland won't let UK/NI fish in Ireland's waters. He then claims that ROI sells milk into NI, but ROI won't buy milk from NI. He then goes onto say that Ireland doesn't have a big enough army to man the bother and that they are an unarmed army as well! Wonders who is going to police the border - saying it won't be NATO as UK is a member of NATO.

If this is what is being said in DUP circles, no wonder some think that the EU is going to backdown on the backstop.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VtH289IyWdw

Delusional.

Good neighbors to Ireland since about Tony Blair's government.

The current Tories abetted by the anti GFA DUP are swiftly trying to undo that to the best of their abilities

10000maniacs

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

Scotland becoming independent would be bad for Ireland. They line up way too similarly to us and would end up being a direct competitor. Roughly the same size population, on the periphery of Europe, English speaking, 'free' third level support ect. They would take away anything Ireland has as a USP within the EU.

Having said that, I do hope for their own sake they get divorced from London.

No I disagree. It would give us a home-countries ally in Brussels, assuming the EU would give Scotland a concession to stay within the EU after independence. This advantage would far outweigh any corporate competitive disadvantage for Ireland.

Water John

Ah yes a Celtic Federation or Group, Scot, NI and ROI, all in the EU. If Wales ever want to join there welcome.

lawred2

farmchoice wrote: »

i think what dowcow is suggesting is that the irish government is outlining a path to keeping the border ''open'' in a no deal scenario, that this legislation is in effect the precursor to a series of ''mini deals''.
so even with a no deal scenario we all continue to get on with our lives.

by protecting ourselves we protect the people of NI as well.

this has always been an argument of the no deal brexiters, in the event of no deal ROI and the EU as a whole will move to protect themselves thereby mitigating the damage to the UK as well.



there is some logic to this as we will do what we have to to protect ourselves but this will only be a short term advantage to the UK.

the EU will be happy to play a longer game when it comes to squeezing this new 3rd country that refused to honor its debts or obligations.

Ireland is not really in any position to enter into mini deals where the integrity of the frontier border could be undermined.

downcow

intellectual dosser wrote: »

I made a post within the last hour saying I don't care about the grandstanders, but its tough not to get irked by Ian Paisley Jnr.

His credibility has been ruined over the past 12 months, but still he gets a microphone and true to form the misinformation and contradictions he speaks in that interview are crazy.

I can’t stand paisley jrn and I would say he is seriously disliked by the majority of unionists outside his own constituency - with very good reason.
So can we set the messenger aside. I believe the message was fairly much spot on and an accurate representation of where s large number of unionists sit on brexit.

kunst nugget

farmchoice wrote: »

this has always been an argument of the no deal brexiters, in the event of no deal ROI and the EU as a whole will move to protect themselves thereby mitigating the damage to the UK as well.

there is some logic to this as we will do what we have to to protect ourselves but this will only be a short term advantage to the UK.

the EU will be happy to play a longer game when it comes to squeezing this new 3rd country that refused to honor its debts or obligations.

There was an interesting article in the Guardian about that recently - while everybody is concentrating on the scramble in the event of a No Deal Brexit, the author was looking at the long term implications when it comes to UK industry no longer has the protection of the EU and what will happen if and when countries in the EU start to go after those industries.

EdgeCase

VinLieger wrote: »

Post withdrawal period? Have fun getting a FTA approved by ireland without a border gurantee.

I think the English (British) negotiators still fail to see that the EU works on solidarity and consensus finding. They keep imagining that if they talk to Germany, which they see as being the masters of the EU in the same way that they're masters of the UK, then they'll be able to whip the other countries into line.

The German response has been utterly consistent : "Speak to Barnier. We don't run the EU! Stop trying to put us in this position. Why are you calling us? How did you even get my mobile number?!"

farmchoice

lawred2 wrote: »

Ireland is not really in any position to enter into mini deals where the integrity of the frontier border could be undermined.

indeed not or any mini deals of any type, but it feeds back to the ''they need us more then we need them narrative'' the brexites have been relying on from that start, that when it comes to it the EU (and or its member states) will bend because it/they need the Uk

Fr Tod Umptious

10000maniacs wrote: »

No I disagree. It would give us a home-countries ally in Brussels, assuming the EU would give Scotland a concession to stay within the EU after independence. This advantage would far outweigh any corporate competitive disadvantage for Ireland.

How would they be a ally ?

I'd argue they would be the opposite

We would both be competing for the same investment etc.

Anyway IndyRef2 talk increased after the 2015 GE and the Brexit referendum but died down again post the GE in 2018.

And a bit like NI just because a majority voted Remain it does not mean they want independence

Sorry mods going a bit off topic.