Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

downcow

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I fail to see why our government would accept such a thing, can you explain the reason that this would be acceptable?

Because it would allow time to cooperate and find a solution that works for all parties. This could be eg up to 5 years.
This seems better to me than trying to agree stuff when everyone is wound up and all sides seem to have irreconcilable red lines that seem destined for no deal.

Sam Russell

Folkstonian wrote: »

Britain leaves the EU with or without a deal at the end of next month. So there’s at least one more show in town than you suggest!

There were three options open to Britain/HMG/HoC since TM signed the withdrawal agreement, and those three options still remain, and all are equally likely.

A: Leave without a deal.

B: Leave with the WA.

C: Cancel Brexit.

A delay just delays the choice, as does a new vote.

That is it - A or B or C. Take your coice.

Mr.Nice Guy

I see the UK's Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has made another gaffe on a visit to Slovenia, getting the history of their country wrong and offending a lot of Slovenians in the process.

https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1099001367350390786

This was the former speaker of the Slovenian parliament, Milan Brglez:

"The British foreign minister comes to Slovenia asking us for a favour (to discuss with the foreign minister how to avoid a no-deal Brexit) while arrogantly insulting us. We were never a 'vassal state of the Soviet Union'"

lawred2

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I see the UK's Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has made another gaffe on a visit to Slovenia, getting the history of their country wrong and offending a lot of Slovenians in the process.

https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1099001367350390786

This was the former speaker of the Slovenian parliament, Milan Brglez:

good grief

black forest

Somehow i have the feeling that the little journeys of Varadkar and Coveney are quite a bit more successful than the rallies TM and her fellow MP´s are doing all the time across europe and elsewhere.


https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1099044733039579136?s=21


This might not mean a lot at the moment. But it could get uncomfortable for the UK in a very short time.

downcow

Flex wrote: »

-Represents a huge concession by the EU to the UK, allowing a region of nearly 2m people to be given a special status and benefits of the EU while not having to be a member

We have this guaranteed no matter what thanks to the gfa. Indeed any UK resident who wants their children to have lifelong access to Eu just need to have their baby born in Belfast. Now there’s an industry - maternity wards.
I actually think there may be a major headache down the road for Eu presented by this issue. I am not sure what makes you northern Irish enough to be eligible for an Irish passport but if mainland residents find a few loopholes then I could be very interesting.
Does anyone know is it born in NI / living in NI / NI parents / etc ??

Enzokk

Folkstonian wrote: »

I think it’s a problem without a solution.

The EU seemingly tolerate Britain having an exit clause to the border agreement, and Britain’s Parliament can’t accept entering into a bilateral agreement from which there is no exit clause.

With Europe having to show total loyalty to Ireland’s requirement and Britain not likely to be the first country in modern history to give such a big concession in a peacetime negotiation, can you actually make a case for anything but no deal being the only available outcome now?

No, it has a solution but the problem is the history of the UK and Ireland that will make the solution unpalatable to one party. Unfortunately things have conspired that this one party is the kingmaker right now so while their views are extreme they actually hold most of the cards. If you think about it the DUP is determining the way forward on Brexit when they received the same amount of votes of registered voters of 4 London constituencies.

The problem isn't the backstop. The problem isn't the EU or the Irish position. The problem is that the GFA was written with both countries within the EU so the agreement took some positions as default, no checks needed for customs or regulatory checks. So the problem is that the UK made a decision without thinking the consequences through regarding their international obligations. For that some are now trying to blame anyone and everyone but the UK.

ToBeFrank123

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The threatening nature of your posts is perfect. The risk of no deal, and resulting border woes, are like a rifle Britain has pointed at Ireland. The problem for Britain is that the EU is pointing a cannon at England.

Dropping the backstop would be akin to the EU decommissioning its cannon while Britain gets to keep pointing its gun at Ireland.

Nope. Not happening.

Ill-informed post and a lie that garners lots of thanks. Par for the course on here it seems. Read all my posts re the backstop then we'll talk.
The UK said it wants changes to the backstop not its abolition. Simple enough.

As for rifles and nonsense like that, lets see where we are in a months time. As far as I can see the UK hold most of the cards. The Irish government themselves have admitted a hard border could cost up to 50,000 jobs and 3.5% growth. Do you understand what that means? It means budget cutbacks. And this when they need to spend more to counteract brexit. The sums don't add up. Coveney now says brexit will be lose-lose-lose. He's worried no deal is coming.

Backstop in its current form equals no deal equals hard border.

I think we're all wasting our time. Hard border is coming as no-one is going to budge. The HoC have said they won't accept an unlimited backstop. Game over it looks like.

CelticRambler

Folkstonian wrote: »

It’s just not really a logical position for Britain to voluntarily put itself in prior to negotiations with Europe on the future deal.

It would be akin to having one foot on a bed of hot coals during a negotiation, only to be told you can lift your foot as soon as you’ve shaken hands on a separate dispute. You are never going to hold out for the best deal in those circumstances, you are going to agree to almost anything that allows you to move your foot.

That metaphor only works if extended to say that you voluntarily entered negotiations knowing that the bed of coals was there and you had to cross it to get to the negotiating table.

Every unmanageable aspect of Brexit and the Irish border was known before the referendum and after the result was announced before Article 50 was triggered. For no good reason (or at least any that's every been adequately explained) Theresa May decided that the UK should jump with both feet into the burning embers.

Folkstonian wrote: »

Why would people bother to vote in a second referendum after being advised time and time again that the result of the first one would be implemented?

This is possibly the most damaging outcome of Brexit. Why indeed would you bother to vote again, in a second referendum when the first one wasn't implemented; or in a general election if your MP is a Remainer and you voted leave, or your a remainer and your MP wants out, or the person you wanted as your MP never had a chance because you live in a safe-seat constituency for the other lot ...

FrancieBrady

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Ill-informed post and a lie that garners lots of thanks. Par for the course on here it seems. Read all my posts re the backstop then we'll talk.
The UK said it wants changes to the backstop not its abolition. Simple enough.

As for rifles and nonsense like that, lets see where we are in a months time. As far as I can see the UK hold most of the cards. The Irish government themselves have admitted a hard border could cost up to 50,000 jobs and 3.5% growth. Do you understand what that means? It means budget cutbacks. And this when they need to spend more to counteract brexit. The sums don't add up. Coveney now says brexit will be lose-lose-lose. He's worried no deal is coming.

At the moment there is no deal. That means hard border.

The change they want will make it no longer a 'backstop'. They have been told this over and over and refuse to accept the logic of it.

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

We have this guaranteed no matter what thanks to the gfa. Indeed any UK resident who wants their children to have lifelong access to Eu just need to have their baby born in Belfast. Now there’s an industry - maternity wards.
I actually think there may be a major headache down the road for Eu presented by this issue. I am not sure what makes you northern Irish enough to be eligible for an Irish passport but if mainland residents find a few loopholes then I could be very interesting.
Does anyone know is it born in NI / living in NI / NI parents / etc ??

It's an interesting one. It is by birth or by descent. But it's not the exact same process applying for Irish citizenship from NI as Ireland. Obviously hasn't been an issue up to now. But they may have to tighten up on obvious cases of citizenship shopping.

Not truly unionist of you though all the same. Seems like more evidence of NI unionists being happy to be different from GB when it suits?

listermint

Folkstonian wrote: »

Britain leaves the EU with or without a deal at the end of next month. So there’s at least one more show in town than you suggest!

You are beginning to get kiddy about the prospect which leads me to believe that you personally will not be impacted by any of this. As in your job won't be lost. You won't lose any freedom of movement. You won't lose cash your house won't lose a huge percentage of its value.

It's these things that the average family will be hit with when his all goes down. And Frankly it's an utterly disgusting attitude. I'm sick of the absolute glee that is expressed about the whole matter , especially from those who are actually relatively informed like yourself . Even if one chooses not to process how bloody well serious he outcome of this will be to the everyday lives of people

FrancieBrady

listermint wrote: »

You are beginning to get kiddy about the prospect which leads me to believe that you personally will not be impacted by any of this. As in your job won't be lost. You won't lose any freedom of movement. You won't lose cash your house won't lose a huge percentage of its value.

It's these things that the average family will be hit with when his all goes down. And Frankly it's an utterly disgusting attitude. I'm sick of the absolute glee that is expressed about the whole matter , especially from those who are actually relatively informed like yourself . Even if one chooses not to process how bloody well serious he outcome of this will be to the everyday lives of people

What Folkstonian fails to look squarely in the eye is that the UK will still need a deal.
They don't sail off into the sunset after a crash out. They still need a deal and the backstop will still be there to be dealt with or they won't get one.

briany

Folkstonian wrote: »

There are obvious benefits that have surely been discussed at such length that everyone could list them by heart, but equally there certain controls and commitments that come with being part of Europe that many people dislike heavily.

In voting out of the EU, the people of the UK have thrown the baby out with the bath water. They could have stayed in and worked to change the EU to something more to the UK's liking, given that there is more than one country in the EU to work with who harbour reservations about certain aspects of the way the EU functions, and the idea of 'ever closer union'. That doesn't mean that they're willing to leave the EU wholesale, though.

And how's life going to improve for your resident of Dagenham or Sunderland in the wake of Brexit. Not one iota is my guess. If one didn't like foreigners, they'll still be there. If one didn't like the bad wages or the lack of jobs, those problems will remain. If one didn't like the EU laws, the HoC will step in to pass some bad ones instead.

Of course, ardent leavers will, on the March 30th, be walking about, delightedly taking in that newfound air of freedom. Everyone else will be holding their breath to see what happens next.

downcow

Enzokk wrote: »

The problem isn't the backstop. The problem isn't the EU or the Irish position. The problem is that the GFA was written with both countries within the EU so the agreement took some positions as default, no checks needed for customs or regulatory checks.

I appreciate I am taking this out off the context you had it (so apologies) but I think it is a really important point I hadn’t considered.
If the gfa is the block (and I still contend it is simply being used and abused) then it obviously was poorly designed and not future proofed

Enzokk

downcow wrote: »

We have this guaranteed no matter what thanks to the gfa.

But you know this guarantee means that NI has to agree to EU rules and regulations without having a say in it? So you have the benefits but there is a price to pay for it, its not free. There will need to be checks between the UK mainland and NI if this special status continues and the UK has its own trade deal with the US as an example. It is exactly this in the GFA that is making the DUP throw their toys out of the pram right now.

FrancieBrady

briany wrote: »

In voting out of the EU, the people of the UK have thrown the baby out with the bath water. They could have stayed in and worked to change the EU to something more to the UK's liking, given that there is more than one country in the EU to work with who harbour reservations about certain aspects of the way the EU functions, and the idea of 'ever closer union'. That doesn't mean that they're willing to leave the EU wholesale, though.

And how's life going to improve for your resident of Dagenham or Sunderland in the wake of Brexit. Not one iota is my guess. If one didn't like foreigners, they'll still be there. If one didn't like the bad wages or the lack of jobs, those problems will remain. If one didn't like the EU laws, the HoC will step in to pass some bad ones instead.

Of course, ardent leavers will, on the March 30th, be walking about, delightedly taking in that newfound air of freedom. Everyone else will be holding their breath to see what happens next.

The foreigners will leave - the hardworking, ambitious ones, because there simply won't be opportunities anymore or at least not for, what was Jacob Rees Mogg prediction...50 years?

ToBeFrank123

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The change they want will make it no longer a 'backstop'. They have been told this over and over and refuse to accept the logic of it.

Its not that black and white. The UK AG and PM need a morsal or two from the EU. All a lot of people in the HoC need is a guarantee they are not tied in permanently, ie for decades or even longer. Once they pass the vote everyone can move to the next stage, a positive win-win relationship.

I'm getting frustrated with this discussion. It feels like some people would shoot themselves in the foot rather than having someone else do it to him.

Its simple though. There is zero chance of HoC accepting a permanent backstop or WA. If anything MPs are becoming more entrenched.

Capt'n Midnight

black forest wrote: »

Somehow i have the feeling that the little journeys of Varadkar and Coveney are quite a bit more successful than the rallies TM and her fellow MP´s are doing all the time across europe and elsewhere.

twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1099044733039579136?s=21

Leo Varadkar has told the selection convention that the US Congress won’t approve any trade deal with the UK unless it maintains an open border with Ireland

This might not mean a lot at the moment. But it could get uncomfortable for the UK in a very short time.

This.

They've had a faux-pas with Germany, Japan and China and now the US has red lines. The ones in Bold below are other countries not in the EU customs union. See other recent posts on the limited nature of the Swiss deal.

UK top 15 exports
United States: US$64.4 billion (13.3% of total UK exports)
Germany: $47 billion (9.7%)
Netherlands: $33.3 billion (6.9%)
France: $31.8 billion (6.6%)
Ireland: $28.3 billion (5.9%)
China: $27.5 billion (5.7%)
Switzerland: $25.4 billion (5.2%)
Belgium: $19.1 billion (4%)
Italy: $14.1 billion (2.9%)
Spain: $13.9 billion (2.9%)
Hong Kong: $10.3 billion (2.1%)
United Arab Emirates: $10 billion (2.1%)
Turkey: $9.5 billion (2%)
Japan: $8.3 billion (1.7%)
South Korea: $7.8 billion (1.6%)

downcow

lawred2 wrote: »

It's an interesting one. It is by birth or by descent. But it's not the exact same process applying for Irish citizenship from NI as Ireland. Obviously hasn't been an issue up to now. But they may have to tighten up on obvious cases of citizenship shopping.

Not truly unionist of you though all the same. Seems like more evidence of NI unionists being happy to be different from GB when it suits?

Thanks for info. You are though mistaken about me ie I would completely support any mainlanders finding all the loopholes they can to get free access to Eu

Is it contained in gfa exactly how an NI resident becomes eligible for Irish passport.
And it might surprise you but if an Irish passport benefits my access to Eu healthcare etc while on holidays then I’ll be carrying two ie my British one and then I’ll have the other one ticked away for those hospital visits etc - or indeed if the Eu que is shorter.

Enzokk

downcow wrote: »

I appreciate I am taking this out off the context you had it (so apologies) but I think it is a really important point I hadn’t considered.
If the gfa is the block (and I still contend it is simply being used and abused) then it obviously was poorly designed and not future proofed

I am sure there are valid criticisms of the GFA and that it hasn't been future proofed as you say. I am sure in hindsight there are changes that could be made to make it better. But it was/is working, even if a little dysfunctionally and that is the most important thing. One thing I would not blame anyone for is thinking the UK would not self harm themselves by leaving the EU. That is not on the authors of the GFA.

ToBeFrank123

listermint wrote: »

You are beginning to get kiddy about the prospect which leads me to believe that you personally will not be impacted by any of this. As in your job won't be lost. You won't lose any freedom of movement. You won't lose cash your house won't lose a huge percentage of its value.

It's these things that the average family will be hit with when his all goes down. And Frankly it's an utterly disgusting attitude. I'm sick of the absolute glee that is expressed about the whole matter , especially from those who are actually relatively informed like yourself . Even if one chooses not to process how bloody well serious he outcome of this will be to the everyday lives of people

Full agree. Its like a game to some and a hard brexit and hard border treated as no big deal.

downcow

Enzokk wrote: »

But you know this guarantee means that NI has to agree to EU rules and regulations without having a say in it? So you have the benefits but there is a price to pay for it, its not free. There will need to be checks between the UK mainland and NI if this special status continues and the UK has its own trade deal with the US as an example. It is exactly this in the GFA that is making the DUP throw their toys out of the pram right now.

Wrong.
A total no deal and we continue with all rights when we visit Eu to holiday or indeed to work. All for the cost of an Irish passport.
We are minted

jochenstacker

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Ill-informed post and a lie that garners lots of thanks. Par for the course on here it seems. Read all my posts re the backstop then we'll talk.
The UK said it wants changes to the backstop not its abolition. Simple enough.

As for rifles and nonsense like that, lets see where we are in a months time. As far as I can see the UK hold most of the cards. The Irish government themselves have admitted a hard border could cost up to 50,000 jobs and 3.5% growth. Do you understand what that means? It means budget cutbacks. And this when they need to spend more to counteract brexit. The sums don't add up. Coveney now says brexit will be lose-lose-lose. He's worried no deal is coming.

Backstop in its current form equals no deal equals hard border.

I think we're all wasting our time. Hard border is coming as no-one is going to budge. The HoC have said they won't accept an unlimited backstop. Game over it looks like.

Well, take the deal so.
Right now to give into the childish demands of cloud cuckoo Brexiteers would be insane by the EU.
It would be like giving in to a child in full tantrum mode.
Very bad idea.
So right now the deal the UK negotiated is on the table, or no deal.
Germans used to be dismayed at the idea of Brexit. But right now the feeling is, the UK always treated Europe as a buffet, how much can they take, take, take.
And then stiff the bill.
Britain is better off outside the EU. Even if it is to discover all the benefits it brings.
Will Europe kowtow to the demands of a country that is only out for itself at the expense of fully paid up members?
You're having a Turkish, mate.

TL/DR:
There's a deal. Take it or leave it.
Maybe a few years time out of the EU might put some manners on the UK. Or it will turn into the North Korea of Europe.
Fine either way. All your own doing.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Thanks for info. You are though mistaken about me ie I would completely support any mainlanders finding all the loopholes they can to get free access to Eu

Is it contained in gfa exactly how an NI resident becomes eligible for Irish passport.
And it might surprise you but if an Irish passport benefits my access to Eu healthcare etc while on holidays then I’ll be carrying two ie my British one and then I’ll have the other one ticked away for those hospital visits etc - or indeed if the Eu que is shorter.

Are you unaware of the deluge of applications for Irish passports?

I would think it would have to be in the multiple of millions for the EU as a whole to worry about individuals having citizenship.i It isn't like there is a region the size of Wales trying to 'sneak' in and steal structural funding under the aegis of the GFA.

hill16bhoy

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Its not that black and white.

Yes, it is.

It literally couldn't be simpler.

A backstop does not have a time limit.

Something with a time limit is not a backstop.

It's a simple as explaining whether a light switch is on or off.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are you unaware of the deluge of applications for Irish passports?

I would think it would have to be in the multiple of millions for the EU as a whole to worry about individuals having citizenship.i It isn't like there is a region the size of Wales trying to 'sneak' in and steal structural funding under the aegis of the GFA.

Well this is why my question. Does anyone know for sure what the gfa says about how it decided whether someone is N Irish. Eg my daughter is dating an Englishman. If he moves over to live in NI and marries her is there any point he can pick up his Irish passport and get s job in Paris ?

An Ciarraioch

downcow wrote: »

Well this is why my question. Does anyone know for sure what the gfa says about how it decided whether someone is N Irish. Eg my daughter is dating an Englishman. If he moves over to live in NI and marries her is there any point he can pick up his Irish passport and get s job in Paris ?

The GFA has nothing to do with passports - either he finds Irish parents/grandparents, or he becomes a naturalised Irish citizen.

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

Well this is why my question. Does anyone know for sure what the gfa says about how it decided whether someone is N Irish. Eg my daughter is dating an Englishman. If he moves over to live in NI and marries her is there any point he can pick up his Irish passport and get s job in Paris ?

Citizenship is by descent or birth.

Can an English man naturalise as Irish in northern Ireland? I would not think so.

Naturalisation can only happen for residents in Ireland.

A passport is an entirely different matter and can't be attained without citizenship.

bob mcbob

Folkstonian wrote: »

I think it’s a problem without a solution.

The EU seemingly tolerate Britain having an exit clause to the border agreement, and Britain’s Parliament can’t accept entering into a bilateral agreement from which there is no exit clause.

With Europe having to show total loyalty to Ireland’s requirement and Britain not likely to be the first country in modern history to give such a big concession in a peacetime negotiation, can you actually make a case for anything but no deal being the only available outcome now?

Suggest you read this, it is about how the big developed countries structure deals to the own benefit when dealing with developing nations. The concessions are all very one sided.

I wonder how long it will be before the Brexiteer English nationalists get the message?

http://www.tulane.edu/~dnelson/PEReformConf/Nogues.pdf