Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Its not that black and white. The UK AG and PM need a morsal or two from the EU. All a lot of people in the HoC need is a guarantee they are not tied in permanently, ie for decades or even longer. Once they pass the vote everyone can move to the next stage, a positive win-win relationship.

I'm getting frustrated with this discussion. It feels like some people would shoot themselves in the foot rather than having someone else do it to him.

Its simple though. There is zero chance of HoC accepting a permanent backstop or WA. If anything MPs are becoming more entrenched.

The UK came up with the notion of a backstop because they couldn't come up with alternative arrangements.
They insist they exost though but are afraid to accept an insurance clause on that.
This is the UK's problem to solve...nobody elses. And while we will suffer a bit short term we will recover. Can the same be said for the UK...again, that is for them to answer and go about their own business.

Enzokk

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Its not that black and white. The UK AG and PM need a morsal or two from the EU. All a lot of people in the HoC need is a guarantee they are not tied in permanently, ie for decades or even longer. Once they pass the vote everyone can move to the next stage, a positive win-win relationship.

I'm getting frustrated with this discussion. It feels like some people would shoot themselves in the foot rather than having someone else do it to him.

Its simple though. There is zero chance of HoC accepting a permanent backstop or WA. If anything MPs are becoming more entrenched.

No, there is no guarantee that giving the UK a morsel will satisfy the ERG. We have already seen their stance change from not leaving the single market to all of a sudden this being a red line. We have also seen comments from MPs that even a change with the backstop would not guarantee they would agree to the deal.

https://twitter.com/MartinSelmayr/status/1092409534029746178

Sam Russell

downcow wrote: »

Thanks for info. You are though mistaken about me ie I would completely support any mainlanders finding all the loopholes they can to get free access to Eu

Is it contained in gfa exactly how an NI resident becomes eligible for Irish passport.
And it might surprise you but if an Irish passport benefits my access to Eu healthcare etc while on holidays then I’ll be carrying two ie my British one and then I’ll have the other one ticked away for those hospital visits etc - or indeed if the Eu que is shorter.

downcow wrote: »

Wrong.
A total no deal and we continue with all rights when we visit Eu to holiday or indeed to work. All for the cost of an Irish passport.
We are minted

The EU EHIC does not work like that. The home country UK in your case is charged back for services rendered. If the UK is not in the EU - then no EHIC.

Igotadose

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Imreoir2 wrote: »

We all agree there should be a backstop. .

No. I think we all agree HMG should withdraw A50.

Agreeing to a backstop assumes Brexit as currently planned goes forward. We'd agree to that via a vote if it won out in said vote

Igotadose

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Imreoir2 wrote: »

We all agree there should be a backstop. .

No. I think we all agree HMG should withdraw A50.

Agreeing to a backstop assumes Brexit as currently planned goes forward. We'd agree to that via a vote if it won out in said vote
P.s.

Bad quoting it was ToBeFrank ... originally

ToBeFrank123

The EU "concession" to allow NI special status was never going to get through the House of Commons and given the DUP held the balance of power was a non starter. It was a naive tactic from the EU. Good idea on paper but if they knew anything about British Politics (they don't) they'd know the DUP is tribalist and against anything that undermines the union. So the concession was a nice idea in theory but a failure in practice.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Well this is why my question. Does anyone know for sure what the gfa says about how it decided whether someone is N Irish. Eg my daughter is dating an Englishman. If he moves over to live in NI and marries her is there any point he can pick up his Irish passport and get s job in Paris ?

You need a qualifying connection to Ireland.

The more Irish passports in the north the better imo.

lawred2

Sam Russell wrote: »

The EU EHIC does not work like that. The home country UK in your case is charged back for services rendered. If the UK is not in the EU - then no EHIC.

I think the citizenship/passport will allow for freedom of movement. But that will be about it.

An Ciarraioch

Tom Newton Dunn reports that Greg Clarke, Amber Rudd and David Gauke have told May of their support for the Cooper-Letwin amendment:

http://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1099047059993382914

ToBeFrank123

hill16bhoy wrote: »

Yes, it is.

It literally couldn't be simpler.

A backstop does not have a time limit.

Something with a time limit is not a backstop.

It's a simple as explaining whether a light switch is on or off.

Do you seriously think the UK or HoC are going to accept being potentially stuck in a backstop arrangement permanently? Simple question. If the answer is No then we go back to the start and its no deal.

Enzokk

downcow wrote: »

Wrong.
A total no deal and we continue with all rights when we visit Eu to holiday or indeed to work. All for the cost of an Irish passport.
We are minted

No, the post you replied to was about the benefits of the EU being applied to NI and them having this access to the EU single market.

Flex wrote: »

Just have the backstop apply to only Northern Ireland, as it was originally intended

-This will be a huge benefit and advantage to Northern Ireland’s private sector
-Allow GB to pursue Brexit as it sees fit and in whatever way is in its best interest
-Represents a huge concession by the EU to the UK, allowing a region of nearly 2m people to be given a special status and benefits of the EU while not having to be a member
-Is clearly the best course for Northern Ireland from an economic point of view and from a social point of view allows the continuation of ‘normalisation’ of people’s lives
-somewhat ironically, given the DUPs absolute opposition to it, I believe the backstop applying to only Northern Ireland would make the union stronger as I believe those who may want a United Ireland would become reluctant to rock the boat in a stable and prosperous Northern Ireland, more so if the present situation of the border effectively being non-existent is maintained

Were it not for the Conservatives reliance on the DUP this wouldn’t even be an issue or topic of discussion.

The backstop as it presently exists right now was also done as a (major) concession by the EU to the UK; the UK government demanded it apply to the whole of the UK.

I echo what others are saying here regards how Ireland needs to see this through now and stick to our position even if it means no deal and a hard border as a consequence; if we time limit the backstop or allow a unilateral withdrawal mechanism we will inevitably end up getting a hard border as the border issue will be used as a bargaining chip by the UK going forward every and any time they want to. By holding firm on this we can make it so the backstop is forever a prerequisite and a fundamental condition of any trade deal the UK seeks with the EU, by compromising on this we end up consenting to a hard border.

So I think you maybe just misinterpreted the post.

downcow

Sam Russell wrote: »

The EU EHIC does not work like that. The home country UK in your case is charged back for services rendered. If the UK is not in the EU - then no EHIC.

Ok. I wasn’t aware of that. So I could present an Irish passport in France and they could say sorry you need an address in the Eu?
That’s going to upset nationalists a bit I guess.
So Eu defence of the spirit of the gfa won’t stretch to anything with a financial cost?

FrancieBrady

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The EU "concession" to allow NI special status was never going to get through the House of Commons and given the DUP held the balance of power was a non starter. It was a naive tactic from the EU. Good idea on paper but if they knew anything about British Politics (they don't) they'd know the DUP is tribalist and against anything that undermines the union. So the concession was a nice idea in theory but a failure in practice.

I'd say the EU took their lead from the team of negotiators and the PM of the UK on what would be a 'deal'. It is still on the table and it looks like it is either that or they delay or revoke. They have negotiated themselves into a position were they can't leave because that would take a massive leap of faith and parliamentarians seem to be getting ready to take that option off the table.

Folkstonian

jochenstacker wrote: »

Well, take the deal so.
Right now to give into the childish demands of cloud cuckoo Brexiteers would be insane by the EU.
It would be like giving in to a child in full tantrum mode.
Very bad idea.
So right now the deal the UK negotiated is on the table, or no deal.
Germans used to be dismayed at the idea of Brexit. But right now the feeling is, the UK always treated Europe as a buffet, how much can they take, take, take.
And then stiff the bill.
Britain is better off outside the EU. Even if it is to discover all the benefits it brings.
Will Europe kowtow to the demands of a country that is only out for itself at the expense of fully paid up members?
You're having a Turkish, mate.

TL/DR:
There's a deal. Take it or leave it.
Maybe a few years time out of the EU might put some manners on the UK. Or it will turn into the North Korea of Europe.
Fine either way. All your own doing.

I always think this is a very unfair line of criticism.

When you complain that Britain has treated the European Union like a buffet, what you actually mean is that Britain, instead of point blank vetoing projects like the Euro and the Schengen Agreement (which in reality it had every right to do) merely stepped to the side and allowed the member states in favour to press on.

Why is such an approach to European integration so worthy of your contempt?

Would you have preferred it if the U.K. had just maliciously stonewalled those ventures at the first hurdle? I sincerely doubt it, but maybe you will explain why that would have been better

Enzokk

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The EU "concession" to allow NI special status was never going to get through the House of Commons and given the DUP held the balance of power was a non starter. It was a naive tactic from the EU. Good idea on paper but if they knew anything about British Politics (they don't) they'd know the DUP is tribalist and against anything that undermines the union. So the concession was a nice idea in theory but a failure in practice.

Wait, did I miss it where the EU was doing the negotiations on their own? The EU put forth a proposal, it was up to the UK to accept it or walk away from it. The fact that it had been agreed before Arlene Foster called up May to set her straight in December 2017 is not on the EU.

An Ciarraioch

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Do you seriously think the UK or HoC are going to accept being potentially stuck in a backstop arrangement permanently? Simple question. If the answer is No then we go back to the start and its no deal.

Even the EU isn't considering a permanent backstop - it will lapse immediately after trade talks end. Both sides want to complete the talks within the transition period, but because that can't be guaranteed, the time required can't be quantified either.

Sam Russell

downcow wrote: »

Ok. I wasn’t aware of that. So I could present an Irish passport in France and they could say sorry you need an address in the Eu?
That’s going to upset nationalists a bit I guess.
So Eu defence of the spirit of the gfa won’t stretch to anything with a financial cost?

They will not ask for your address, they will ask for your EHIC card and your credit card. No EHIC card, then just the credit card (or you health isurance details). They do not care about your passport.

FrancieBrady

Enzokk wrote: »

Wait, did I miss it where the EU was doing the negotiations on their own? The EU put forth a proposal, it was up to the UK to accept it or walk away from it. The fact that it had been agreed before Arlene Foster called up May to set her straight in December 2017 is not on the EU.

Arlene was happy with it, it was when the backroom boys of the DUP kicked in that the deal went awry.

EdgeCase

Sam Russell wrote: »

They will not ask for your address, they will ask for your EHIC card and your credit card. No EHIC card, then just the credit card (or you health isurance details). They do not care about your passport.

It's linked to the HSE and PPSN. So, yeah if you're not entitled to social insurance in the Republic of Ireland, you're not going to be issued with an Irish EHIC card.

downcow

EdgeCase wrote: »

It's linked to the HSE and PPSN. So, yeah if you're not entitled to social insurance in the Republic of Ireland, you're not going to be issued with an Irish EHIC card.

I stand corrected. That’s a bit of a downer. Thought we would freeload of Eu healthcare.

Sam Russell

downcow wrote: »

I stand corrected. That’s a bit of a downer. Thought we would freeload of Eu healthcare.

Actually, it is the EU that has been freeloading on the UK NHS. If a UK resident goes to an EU health service, they charge back the NHS for the costs. However if an EU citizen uses the the NHS, their health service is not charged (generally) because the NHS does not have a charging system, and it is difficult for them to do so. However, since Brexit, they are starting to do so.

EdgeCase

Sam Russell wrote: »

Actually, it is the EU that has been freeloading on the UK NHS. If a UK resident goes to an EU health service, they charge back the NHS for the costs. However if an EU citizen uses the the NHS, their health service is not charged (generally) because the NHS does not have a charging system, and it is difficult for them to do so. However, since Brexit, they are starting to do so.

Well, I mean that's hardly the EU's fault if the NHS just didn't bother to implement an accounting system and absorbed the costs for absolutely no reason. Nobody ever asked them to do that.

Sam Russell

EdgeCase wrote: »

Well, I mean that's hardly the EU's fault if the NHS just didn't bother to implement an accounting system and absorbed the costs for absolutely no reason. Nobody ever asked them to do that.

Exactly, but there you have another reason to Brexit - but of course false if it is blamed on the EU.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

I stand corrected. That’s a bit of a downer. Thought we would freeload of Eu healthcare.

Is that not one of the primary objections to what immigrants are perceived (rightly or wrongly) to be doing and why the UK Brexiteers want 'control of their borders'?

briany

downcow wrote: »

That’s going to upset nationalists a bit I guess.

I don't think the Unionists who were planning on cynically taking advantage of a quickie Irish passport will be too happy either.

So Eu defence of the spirit of the gfa won’t stretch to anything with a financial cost?

The EU have already laid out a workable proposal to protect the GFA. That proposal has been rejected by the UK government.

Charles Babbage

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The EU "concession" to allow NI special status was never going to get through the House of Commons

Over 500 of the people in the House of Commons have no objection to the backstop.

ToBeFrank123

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Even the EU isn't considering a permanent backstop - it will lapse immediately after trade talks end. Both sides want to complete the talks within the transition period, but because that can't be guaranteed, the time required can't be quantified either.

There would be no onus on the EU to conclude talks and the UK could be tied in longterm. I think this is what hardline brexiteers fear. The EU are not exactly known for making it easy to leave. Without some guarantees from the EU on its length we're looking at a hard brexit as the HoC have nothing they can vote a majority on. I think attitudes have hardened in the UK against the EU recently meaning a second referendum is unlikely.

FrancieBrady

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

There would be no onus on the EU to conclude talks and the UK could be tied in longterm. I think this is what hardline brexiteers fear. The EU are not exactly known for making it easy to leave. Without some guarantees from the EU on its length we're looking at a hard brexit as the HoC have nothing they can vote a majority on. I think attitudes have hardened in the UK against the EU recently meaning a second referendum is unlikely.

The principal protagonists of Brexit told us it would be 'the easiest trade deal ever'.
It is simple to leave...just go. It is not however easy to leave while you imperil other international agreements and try to secure a deal which leaves you better off than those within the EU.

prawnsambo

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

There would be no onus on the EU to conclude talks and the UK could be tied in longterm. I think this is what hardline brexiteers fear. The EU are not exactly known for making it easy to leave. Without some guarantees from the EU on its length we're looking at a hard brexit as the HoC have nothing they can vote a majority on. I think attitudes have hardened in the UK against the EU recently meaning a second referendum is unlikely.

This stuff is so contradictory. On the one hand we're told that the deal will be the easiest in history because German car makers and Italian prosecco etc. and on the other hand, the EU won't do a trade deal and risk tariff barriers between said car makers and their big market. Just to maintain a limbo situation that keeps the uncertainty needle in the red.

ToBeFrank123

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Over 500 of the people in the House of Commons have no objection to the backstop.

How do you figure that? Are you referring to the Baron amendment?