Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Infini

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Do you seriously think the UK or HoC are going to accept being potentially stuck in a backstop arrangement permanently? Simple question. If the answer is No then we go back to the start and its no deal.

HoC can accept or reject but a no deal is a disaster for them no matter how much they huff and puff. Difference is the deal they get later will likely be far worse than the one on the table as this level of blatent stupidity will coke back to haunt them if they damage other countries with their recklessness.

PeadarCo

ToBeFrank123 wrote:

There would be no onus on the EU to conclude talks and the UK could be tied in longterm. I think this is what hardline brexiteers fear. The EU are not exactly known for making it easy to leave. Without some guarantees from the EU on its length we're looking at a hard brexit as the HoC have nothing they can vote a majority on. I think attitudes have hardened in the UK against the EU recently meaning a second referendum is unlikely.

The length of article 50 indicates how easy it is to leave the EU. 2 years is far to short to leave the EU and come out with an intact economy. That's even assuming the leaving country actually knew what it wanted when leaving. Look at how it takes to agree international trade agreements and none of them come close to how complex the EU is. There is no requirement for the EU to do a deal the UK. Given the enormous difference in bargaining power a no deal Brexit is arguably better than a bad deal. A no deal does serious damage to the UK economy relative to the EU. So the EUs bargaining power will arguably only get stronger. This I imagine is also factoring into the Irish government strategy. The EU have basically said the UK must agree to a backstop before trade negotiations can begin. The UK is going to have to live with that.

There is nothing stopping the UK leaving. Unless they come to an agreement with the EU, March 30th the UK is no longer a member. Article 50 has been triggered and at this stage only the UK can stop Brexit there is nothing the EU can do.

Capt'n Midnight

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tom Newton Dunn reports that Greg Clarke, Amber Rudd and David Gauke have told May of their support for the Cooper-Letwin amendment:

twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1099047059993382914[/url]

Brexit should be delayed if Parliament does not approve a deal in the coming days, three cabinet ministers have warned publicly for the first time.

Can't we get you on Mastermind, Sybil?
Next contestant Sybil Fawlty from Torquay, special subject the bleeding obvious.
- Basil Fawlty


Which reminded me of
https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0220/1031833-brexit-brussels-talks/

Mr Timmermans compared efforts by some British politicians to try to prevent British Prime Minister Theresa May taking Britain out of the EU without a deal to the apocryphal tale of England's Danish King Canute, who ordered the tide to stop but failed.

Unless Britons can rally behind an alternative, Brexit is the default, he said.

Frans Timmerman is Dutch.

Brexit has been negotiated in English.
On the EU side it's been done mostly by people who aren't native speakers. And they use English metaphors. It doesn't get easier than this for the UK.

ToBeFrank123

The Baron amendment failed because the EU wouldn't entertain it as part of the WA so no point voting it through. Little to do with supporting the backstop, more a realisation it was not legally enforceable.

downcow

EdgeCase wrote: »

It's linked to the HSE and PPSN. So, yeah if you're not entitled to social insurance in the Republic of Ireland, you're not going to be issued with an Irish EHIC card.

I stand corrected. That’s a bit of a downer. Thought we would freeload of Eu healthcare.

ToBeFrank123

Infini wrote: »

HoC can accept or reject but a no deal is a disaster for them no matter how much they huff and puff. Difference is the deal they get later will likely be far worse than the one on the table as this level of blatent stupidity will coke back to haunt them if they damage other countries with their recklessness.

As Coveney said its a lose for everyone and he should know as he's been involved in the negotiations and knows also the full impact of a no deal.

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

They will not ask for your address, they will ask for your EHIC card and your credit card. No EHIC card, then just the credit card (or you health isurance details). They do not care about your passport.

When you leave the CTA and enter Schengen you will need to show your passport.

But you won't need it within the CTA.

And you won't need it to cross borders within Schengen.


Different countries have different rules.

If you don't have health insurance then you'd have to pay €157 a month plus prescriptions to join the Spanish NHS if you were over 65.

FrancieBrady

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

As Coveney said its a lose for everyone and he should know as he's been involved in the negotiations and knows also the full impact of a no deal.

Yes, it always was. It is the different magnitudes of loss though and throwing out the GFA is a loss we cannot contemplate. May and the UK government have pulled in their horns on that while the DUP still play pointless arrogant games around it. The GFA has won here.

bilston

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Brexit should be delayed if Parliament does not approve a deal in the coming days, three cabinet ministers have warned publicly for the first time.

Can't we get you on Mastermind, Sybil?
Next contestant Sybil Fawlty from Torquay, special subject the bleeding obvious.
- Basil Fawlty


Which reminded me of
https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0220/1031833-brexit-brussels-talks/Frans Timmerman is Dutch.

Brexit has been negotiated in English.
On the EU side it's been done mostly by people who aren't native speakers. And they use English metaphors. It doesn't get easier than this for the UK.

One of Sky's newspaper reviewers (Suzi Boniface) reckons this letter has been written with the support of staff close to Downing St, which is probably code for, it has been written with the support of Theresa May.

So in other words expect Britain to request an extension to A50 in the coming days.

That's not to say she is right of course, but it seems to be the only realistic move for the UK. Of course that's not to say the EU will agree, they will need a reason to agree I suppose.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Is that not one of the primary objections to what immigrants are perceived (rightly or wrongly) to be doing and why the UK Brexiteers want 'control of their borders'?

Yeah. And I would never ever condemn any disadvantaged person for moving wherever if it benefits their quality of life. It is systems that are to blame

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Yeah. And I would never ever condemn any disadvantaged person for moving wherever if it benefits their quality of life. It is systems that are to blame

You want to freeload though. So you are different, good to know.

PeadarCo

ToBeFrank123 wrote:

As Coveney said its a lose for everyone and he should know as he's been involved in the negotiations and knows also the full impact of a no deal.

And that's exactly the problem for the UK. A no deal is bad for the EU and especially Ireland however it will be catastrophic for the UK. Look at all the job losses pre Brexit. Look at all the forecasts for the UK in the event of a no deal Brexit. The UK may sign up to the backstop when their country grinds to halt.

Capt'n Midnight

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The principal protagonists of Brexit told us it would be 'the easiest trade deal ever'.
It is simple to leave...just go. It is not however easy to leave while you imperil other international agreements and try to secure a deal which leaves you better off than those within the EU.

Excluding the EU customs union area and places they've dirtied their bib with this week, these are the remaining ones in the top 15 countries the UK exports to. 11% in total.The Swiss deal is limited in time and scope. And South Korea might not be in a rush as they have an EU deal

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

UK top 15 exports
Switzerland: $25.4 billion (5.2%)
Hong Kong: $10.3 billion (2.1%)
United Arab Emirates: $10 billion (2.1%)
South Korea: $7.8 billion (1.6%)

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You want to freeload though. So you are different, good to know.

That makes no sense I have just said I’m ok with it

Capt'n Midnight

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

EU/UK negoatiations have been concluded

The House of Commons is where the two sides are dug in and slinging insults at each other

Suggest you look more closely at the defeated amendments

Reminds me of the Spanish Civil war where anarchists and communists were having a mini civil war instead of uniting against Franco.

It didn't end well.

lawred2

bilston wrote: »

One of Sky's newspaper reviewers (Suzi Boniface) reckons this letter has been written with the support of staff close to Downing St, which is probably code for, it has been written with the support of Theresa May.

So in other words expect Britain to request an extension to A50 in the coming days.

That's not to say she is right of course, but it seems to be the only realistic move for the UK. Of course that's not to say the EU will agree, they will need a reason to agree I suppose.

Oh great. An extension of this crap show.

Sam Russell

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

When you leave the CTA and enter Schengen you will need to show your passport.

But you won't need it within the CTA.

And you won't need it to cross borders within Schengen.


Different countries have different rules.

If you don't have health insurance then you'd have to pay €157 a month plus prescriptions to join the Spanish NHS if you were over 65.

I think that relates to residents - and may or may not apply to UK citizens after Brext.

fash

Folkstonian wrote: »

The EU isn’t at fault just because it’s terms aren’t agreeable to Britain.

Britain has no divine right to have its ambitions for the future relationship agreed upon by Europe. And Europe isn’t doing anything wrong by standing by terms that are unacceptable to the British Parliament.

The reverse is true of Britain.

So why the talk of fault and blame at all? That’s simply what I don’t understand.

Because the UK is planning to completely undermine the GFA, deliberately and without any consideration for it - and indeed doing so while seeking to undermine support for Ireland in governments around Europe.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

That makes no sense I have just said I’m ok with it

You are ok with people needing help accessing help, but you want to

downcow wrote:

I stand corrected. That’s a bit of a downer. Thought we would freeload of Eu healthcare.

hill16bhoy

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Do you seriously think the UK or HoC are going to accept being potentially stuck in a backstop arrangement permanently? Simple question. If the answer is No then we go back to the start and its no deal.

That is the deal the UK has negotiated and signed.

Capt'n Midnight

RobMc59 wrote: »

All this talk of Scotland leaving the UK and hard borders has got me thinking-what would happen if Scotland left the UK and joined the EU ,would the EU attempt to enforce a hard border-now THAT would be interesting!

The UK Scottish border was defined by centuries of warfare. So defensible and far few crossings. Almost as easy as an Irish Sea border.

Also far fewer paramilitaries.

It's doable for many of the reasons a Irish border isn't.

Given the history of the area that funny 10-20Km buffer area each side where customs could work might be a runner. A return to the Lord Warden of the Marches if you like. Scottish or English customs on either side of a border would not be as contentions as it would be here.

FrancieBrady

hill16bhoy wrote: »

That is the deal the UK has negotiated and signed.

Exactly. You send a team of negotiators and your PM to do a deal and then reject that deal and it is everyone else's problem but yours. Crazy.

reslfj

fash wrote: »

... while seeking to undermine support for Ireland in governments around Europe.

Easy now - Ireland has very much support in the EU27.

Lars

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think that relates to residents - and may or may not apply to UK citizens after Brext.

€157 is a hard number. Especially if you are on a pension from a foreign country and the rules are a changing'

It means UK citizens may need to buy health insurance when going on holiday instead of using an E111. And they may need to pay a lot more for EU roaming. And the Pound may fall further against the Euro.



But it will be worth it to allow May to take back control of immigration. :rolleyes:

Because she's letting in more and more non-EU immigrants. It's exactly like a politician promising to fix potholes while at the same time tossing out Road Opening Permits like confetti.

ToBeFrank123

hill16bhoy wrote: »

That is the deal the UK has negotiated and signed.

Unless it gets a majority in the HoC its a worthless agreement. Everyone knows this.This is nothing new. All recent EU treaties also had to be ratified by the House of Commons. Its how they do things in the UK.

At the risk of repeating myself unless it passes the HoC its not a ratified agreement. And thats a fact a lot of people are struggling with.

FrancieBrady

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Unless it gets a majority in the HoC its a worthless agreement. Everyone knows this.This is nothing new. All recent EU treaties also had to be ratified by the House of Commons. Its how they do things in the UK.

At the risk of repeating myself unless it passes the HoC its not a ratified agreement.

Which is nobody else's problem but the UK's.

Capt'n Midnight

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don`t know if you saw Dominic Grieve(who seems a fairly intelligent bloke) on the news a couple of days ago.He said:
"There is no version of brexit that is better than what we have already".
That simple statement sums all this up for me-or am I wrong?

Some are suggesting Norway instead of the WA.


The UK would get to block immigration?
No. Because four freedoms and Schengen too. RED LINES.

It won't be cheaper given what Norway pays into the EU.
But would get no passporting for financials.

And all the other deals offer even less economic access to the EU.

Turkey means taking EU rules on manufactured goods . RED LINE.


Free Trade Agreements sound good , until you remember that the UK economy is 80% based on services.

ToBeFrank123

Others would disagree about the UK being worst hit.

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/ireland-will-be-worst-hit-and-may-need-emergency-aid-in-event-of-no-deal-brexit-former-wto-chief-37165023.html

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/classified-report-shows-brexit-will-hit-ireland-worse-than-uk-1.3403601?mode=amp

https://www.businessworld.ie/news-from-ireland/Ireland-could-be-worst-hit-by-Brexit-warns-IMF-571114.html

No wonder Coveney and co are worried.

Junkyard Tom

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

As far as I can see the UK hold most of the cards.

Oh dear, not this again. Britain does not 'hold most of the cards', it doesn't even have a premium hand and everyone in Europe knows this.

It's odd that anyone believes that Britain 'holds most of the cards' when, in reality, Britain is trying to negotiate with a trading bloc that dwarfs it and that it depends on for nearly half its trade.

The value of Germany's exports alone are three times that of Britain.

ToBeFrank123

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Oh dear, not this again. Britain does not 'hold most of the cards', it doesn't even have a premium hand and everyone in Europe knows this.

It's odd that anyone believes that Britain 'holds most of the cards' when, in reality, Britain is trying to negotiate with a trading bloc that dwarfs it and that it depends on for nearly half its trade.

The value of Germany's exports alone are three times that of Britain.

See my post with links to articles on impact to Ireland. Not my opinion, the opinion of prominent experts such as IMF and World Bank. A summary of the articles, Ireland has more to lose than the UK.

All European countries including Germany will suffer. There are no winners.

Which basically means the main negotiating blocs including the EU and UK are idiots. They should be doing everything to get an agreement over the line, instead they have dug themslves deeper into their foxholes and are unwilling to concede. They need to just do a bloody deal for everyones sakes.