Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

See my post with links to articles on impact to Ireland. Not my opinion, the opinion of prominent experts such as IMF and World Bank. A summary of the articles, Ireland has more to lose than the UK.

All European countries including Germany will suffer. There are no winners.

Which basically means the main negotiating blocs including the EU and UK are idiots. They should be doing everything to get an agreement over the line, instead they have dug themslves deeper into their foxholes and unwilling to concede. They need to just do a bloody deal for everyones sakes.

And we are standing strong (all political parties) against the UK and what some of them want.

Your move.

Not being confrontational, but have the UK anything to trump that?

A Dub in Glasgo

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Which basically means the main negotiating blocs including the EU and UK are idiots. They should be doing everything to get an agreement over the line, instead they have dug themslves deeper into their foxholes and unwilling to concede. They need to just do a bloody deal for everyones sakes.

I presume you are also on a Brexiteer Central forum cajoling the Brexiteers to stop being silly and just accept the WA as the EU has no intention of 'trapping' the UK into the backstop?

ToBeFrank123

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And we are standing strong (all political parties) against the UK and what some of them want.

Your move.

Not being confrontational, but have the UK anything to trump that?

Its not what I think.

What matters is what those in the HoC think and how they vote. So far they are not in favour of the WA and there's no sign they are changing their minds. The EU also isn't changing course. So disorderly brexit seems the most likely outcome with Ireland caught in the headlights.

FrancieBrady

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Its not what I think.

What matters is what those in the HoC think and how they vote. So far they are not in favour of the WA and there's no sign they are changing their minds. The EU also isn't changing course. So disorderly brexit seems the most likely outcome with Ireland caught in the headlights.

That's not going to happen. Parliament is shaping to not allow it.
The UK will continue to implode - in or out of the EU.

The paralysis of the UK political system is nobody else's problem to sort out. They are not crashing out. With their red lines they cannot leave... the UK's problem again. We will stand by, prepared, until they make their minds up.

demfad

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Its not what I think.

What matters is what those in the HoC think and how they vote. So far they are not in favour of the WA and there's no sign they are changing their minds. The EU also isn't changing course. So disorderly brexit seems the most likely outcome with Ireland caught in the headlights.

UK ministers took things in hand today with a threat to May on no-deal.
They will vote to extend A50 if no-deal not removed from table.
The thinking now is that the UK must contest the EP elections if they want to extend beyond July 1st.
This is crucial. A 3 month extension means a straight choice between deal and no-deal. It would be too late to contest election so UK would be out on July 1st, no matter what

Westernyelp

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The paralysis of the UK political system is nobody else's problem to sort out. They are not crashing out. With their red lines they cannot leave... the UK's problem again. We will stand by, prepared, until they make their minds up.

What do you expect from an ass but a kick? This country is well used to being screwed over by the Brits. if a no deal outcome is what happens, We will have to live with it. rebuild and come back stronger.

Imreoir2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Its not what I think.

What matters is what those in the HoC think and how they vote. So far they are not in favour of the WA and there's no sign they are changing their minds. The EU also isn't changing course. So disorderly brexit seems the most likely outcome with Ireland caught in the headlights.

The HoC is not the only body that matters in this process, if the deal does not work for us by ensuring that there can be no hard border, then it is not going to fly. There is very little point in talking about a deal that does not ensure there us no hard border, it is simply not good enough.

Bigus

Serious question here ,

Is there Any chance of a Euro wide referendum by the 420 million remaining eu citizens to allow the British back in after Brexit or can they just rejoin willy nilly ?

Westernyelp

Bigus wrote: »

Serious question here ,

Is there Any chance of a Euro wide referendum by the 420 million remaining eu citizens to allow the British back in after Brexit or can they just rejoin willy nilly ?

There would be a process of negotiation and ratification to go through first. and the terms would certainly be less favorable than currently available to the UK,

Most countries do not require popular referendums either afaik.

so certainly not 'willy nilly'

J Mysterio

Folkstonian wrote: »

It’s just not really a logical position for Britain to voluntarily put itself in prior to negotiations with Europe on the future deal.

It would be akin to having one foot on a bed of hot coals during a negotiation, only to be told you can lift your foot as soon as you’ve shaken hands on a separate dispute. You are never going to hold out for the best deal in those circumstances, you are going to agree to almost anything that allows you to move your foot.

I accept your analogy, but only of you agree the UK voluntarily put it's foot in it.

Bigus

Westernyelp wrote: »

There would be a process of negotiation and ratification to go through first. and the terms would certainly be less favorable than currently available to the UK,

Most countries do not require popular referendums either afaik.

so certainly not 'willy nilly'

It's an interesting conundrum though , as I'm sure most Brexiteers assume membership of the EU is a given if their oxbridge intelligence so desires,at some time in the future.

Westernyelp

Bigus wrote: »

It's an interesting conundrum though , as I'm sure most Brexiteers assume membership of the EU is a given if their oxbridge intelligence so desires,at some time in the future.

Those Brexiteers need to realise that the absolute best deal they will get within the EU (or outside) is the one they have now. i really think it is that simple.

Berserker

Bigus wrote: »

It's an interesting conundrum though , as I'm sure most Brexiteers assume membership of the EU is a given if their oxbridge intelligence so desires,at some time in the future.

Membership would be a given.

J Mysterio

Folkstonian wrote: »

Britain leaves the EU with or without a deal at the end of next month. So there’s at least one more show in town than you suggest!

"London's latest tactic is like saying 'give me what I want or I'll jump out the window'."

- Coveney, January 19.

Berserker

Westernyelp wrote: »

Those Brexiteers need to realise that the absolute best deal they will get within the EU (or outside) is the one they have now. i really think it is that simple.

It is for the EU. I'm happy to be leave on a no deal basis and the UK will leave on that basis.

Imreoir2

Westernyelp wrote: »

There would be a process of negotiation and ratification to go through first. and the terms would certainly be less favorable than currently available to the UK,

Most countries do not require popular referendums either afaik.

so certainly not 'willy nilly'

Wait, we would get to vote on allowing them back in? They have really made life easy for the no campaign.

Westernyelp

Berserker wrote: »

Membership would be a given.

on what terms?

20silkcut

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The HoC is not the only body that matters in this process, if the deal does not work for us by ensuring that there can be no hard border, then it is not going to fly. There is very little point in talking about a deal that does not ensure there us no hard border, it is simply not good enough.

Can you see Irish people mobilize and take to the streets over brexit? I certainly would. I honestly fear that we will take most of the pain from brexit and our previous history of meekly taking tough medicine in the past does not bode well for us. We are not good at fighting our corner. We are not a nation of protesters especially when it comes to a low resolution,death by a thousand cuts, issue like brexit.

We surely have a moral case as much as there ever was a cause on this island for a unity poll or a border in the Irish Sea.

This is as big an existential threat as we ever faced certainly since the economic war of the 1930’s perhaps worse cause brexit might never resolve.

Patser

Its interesting to see the 3 ministers talking of an extension. It smacks of giving May a polite excuse for breaking her repeated 'We're leaving in the 29th' promise, with 'Oh parliament made me do it'

But while any extension is better than a crash out exit; is there seriously any sign of any plan, or new idea from Britain. They have done absolutely nothing to abate this current mess over the last 5 months - last 2 weeks have just been May holding non discript meetings in Brussels about semantics, while the ERG stood smugly to the side.

It appears only some leaving her party and more threatening to, has had more impact on her than her Nation's future. Save the party once more.

20silkcut

Patser wrote: »

, while the ERG stood smugly to the side.

.

Quiet reassuring to see that the ERG counts someone with the surname Trevelyan among its members.

Calina

Bigus wrote: »

Serious question here ,

Is there Any chance of a Euro wide referendum by the 420 million remaining eu citizens to allow the British back in after Brexit or can they just rejoin willy nilly ?

Accession would have to be negotiated, but in theory, it should be straightforward as there is a well defined process. It would require the UK implementing the acquis communautaire in its legislation, something which in theory should be easier the sooner they try to rejoin. If regulation has diverged a lot, UK will have a lot of work to do. The two sticking points from a populr press point of view will be Schengen and the euro.

The optouts and spevial cases that the UK has enjoyed up to now may well be serious history unless the UK can make a special, special case fot getting them back.

This will not require a EU wide referendum.

Calina

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Its not what I think.

What matters is what those in the HoC think and how they vote. So far they are not in favour of the WA and there's no sign they are changing their minds. The EU also isn't changing course. So disorderly brexit seems the most likely outcome with Ireland caught in the headlights.

I really think you are being naive here. The backstop is used as a blocking point because it allows the anti agreement bunch to pick on Ireland and rage against it in the popular press, demonise an enemy which is getting far too uppity. If the backstop did not exist the ERG would try a different tactic, the 39 billion probably.

Regardless of whether the backstop is changed or not, the UK still won't be ratifying the agreement unless the ERG's constituency committees start deselecting those members as candidates.

Their problem is not the backstop, it is the agreement itself. That is why the UK cannot come up with a solution here: even if by some miracle they found something that would get past the EU, or even removed it, they still cannot be sure the agreement would pass the HoC.

The UK-wide backstop, contentious as it is, is a UK contribution. Not an EU one. They would be happy with NI only.

But I don't think the deal will pass either way. Whether she needs 10 cross bench votes (NI only backstop meaning she needs to replace the DUP) or 60 plus (ERG). The UK needs a little more reality.

VinLieger

20silkcut wrote: »

Can you see Irish people mobilize and take to the streets over brexit? I certainly would. I honestly fear that we will take most of the pain from brexit and our previous history of meekly taking tough medicine in the past does not bode well for us. We are not good at fighting our corner. We are not a nation of protesters especially when it comes to a low resolution,death by a thousand cuts, issue like brexit.

We surely have a moral case as much as there ever was a cause on this island for a unity poll or a border in the Irish Sea.

This is as big an existential threat as we ever faced certainly since the economic war of the 1930’s perhaps worse cause brexit might never resolve.

What and who would be protesting at? Outside of the UK itself we will deffinitely be the worst affected but we also are still in the EU so wont be by ourselves trying to fix things.

Also our government are leaps and bounds more prepared for no deal than the UK. A good example is our omnibus bill will be passed no question prior to March 29th while it is literally impossible for the UK to pass all the required legislation it currently needs in a no deal scenario.

mickoneill31

Calina wrote: »

Accession would have to be negotiated, but in theory, it should be straightforward as there is a well defined process. It would require the UK implementing the acquis communautaire in its legislation, something which in theory should be easier the sooner they try to rejoin. If regulation has diverged a lot, UK will have a lot of work to do. The two sticking points from a populr press point of view will be Schengen and the euro.

The optouts and spevial cases that the UK has enjoyed up to now may well be serious history unless the UK can make a special, special case fot getting them back.

This will not require a EU wide referendum.

If they use the same negotiators as they've used for the WA I think we can see they'll get no special case. I can't see it happening. If the UK leaves it'll be a generation or two before they ever get back. They'll go into EU blame game override for every job loss or any austerity. And a significant proportion of the population lap that up.
Sure they've begun that already.

I saw a user post on this thread that the EU doesn't care about the GFA if they don't give people living in the North EHIC cards. You need a special type of contortion to get to that kind of conclusion.

murphaph

If the UK leaves without a deal the UK will tear itself apart. NI will opt for Irish unification. Scotland will opt for independence and will be welcomed back into the EU (and despite the competition I would be disgusted if Ireland wasn't firmly in favour of this). Wales will probably stick it out with England.

Eventually you'll have this new country, England. It will sit alone for a generation and then hopefully the younger people will yearn for membership of our union. As equals. And I hope we would welcome that new generation back in too.

mickoneill31

I'd say we would welcome them back. It's not the EU vs the UK that the UK have always thought.
I think the UK have been its own worst enemy in these negotiations. They've a bit of a Trump type negotiation style. There has to be a winner vs a loser. So there will be.

First Up

Bigus wrote:

Is there Any chance of a Euro wide referendum by the 420 million remaining eu citizens to allow the British back in after Brexit or can they just rejoin willy nilly ?

The EU is a union of sovereign countries; that's how it works (despite the nonsense from some quarters about it being a "super state".)

Decision making is heavily weighted to favour the smaller countries (despite the nonsense from some quarters about our "German masters".)

There won't be any Euro wide referendums.

fash

reslfj wrote: »

Easy now - Ireland has very much support in the EU27.

Lars

It hasn't stopped the UK using every means at its disposal - diplomatic and political to brief against and destroy that support - they merely have been unsuccessful in trying to do so.

judeboy101

Interesting piece by TC,

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0222/1032230-brexit-tony-connelly/

Tldr: it all comes down to convincing Cox to change his legal opinion, most probably through legal guarantees outside WA.

fash

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Ill-informed post and a lie that garners lots of thanks. Par for the course on here it seems. Read all my posts re the backstop then we'll talk.
The UK said it wants changes to the backstop not its abolition. Simple enough.

As for rifles and nonsense like that, lets see where we are in a months time. As far as I can see the UK hold most of the cards. The Irish government themselves have admitted a hard border could cost up to 50,000 jobs and 3.5% growth. Do you understand what that means? It means budget cutbacks. And this when they need to spend more to counteract brexit. The sums don't add up. Coveney now says brexit will be lose-lose-lose. He's worried no deal is coming.
.

And the UK loses 7% of its GDP, millions of jobs and already has 50+ % of its population thinking Brexit is a stupid idea to begin with - yet they hold most of the cards?! Not even Michael Gove is that delusional at this stage.
By the way, I (probably stupidly) took the time of going through your historic posts and you did NOT set out a position as regards what concession on the backstop should be made (contrary to your assertions otherwise) - aside from vague and meaningless statements about making concessions.

Here however is my proposal: the EU can give a legal and binding guarantee that the backstop will not be used if provided with and subject to a binding UK guarantee that there will be no hard border.