Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

judeboy101

Here however is my proposal: the EU can give a legal and binding guarantee that the backstop will not be used if provided with and subject to a binding UK guarantee that there will be no hard border.[/QUOTE]
That's a dangerous deal. Uk could use Ni as a backdoor in EU as they make dodgy deals around the world. They would not technically be in breach and we'd end up putting up border not them.

fash

judeboy101 wrote: »

Here however is my proposal: the EU can give a legal and binding guarantee that the backstop will not be used if provided with and subject to a binding UK guarantee that there will be no hard border.

That's a dangerous deal. Uk could use Ni as a backdoor in EU as they make dodgy deals around the world. They would not technically be in breach and we'd end up putting up border not them.[/QUOTE]

I should be more clear: no hard border implemented or caused to be implemented" - the wording needs more work but hopefully you get the general idea.

volchitsa

fash wrote: »

Here however is my proposal: the EU can give a legal and binding guarantee that the backstop will not be used if provided with and subject to a binding UK guarantee that there will be no hard border.

Would that be acceptable to the ERG though? Isn't it just another way of saying the UK has to be a rule taker/remain in the single market etc?

Enzokk

Surely right now it is about fudging the deal that May negotiated already through parliament. She has said she wants to work together with other parties, but that seemed to last only a week. Since then she has been giving appearances of getting a new deal done but the reality is that there will be no new deal. There will be legal clarifications that the backstop is not permanent and when either a new trade deal is negotiated or technology exists that means a physical border is not needed it will not be implemented, or if it has been implemented it will cease to be in effect.

However, I don't think she gets this through parliament as the ERG are so determined to leave the EU, and some of them with no-deal as the aim, they will not fall for the legal fudges being sold to them. At the same time Corbyn knows if she gets her deal through the Tories are in power until 2022 and he loses his chance to be PM, so he will not vote for it. The DUP will not vote for it either as it is not whatever they want.

So we are no closer to where we were, with May's deal the only one on the table and not having a majority to get it through because she has alienated the opposition parties during the negotiations and there are enough hardliners in her party that just wants to leave with no-deal.

RobMc59

downcow wrote: »

Yeah. And I would never ever condemn any disadvantaged person for moving wherever if it benefits their quality of life. It is systems that are to blame

If your father is from Donegal you or your children are entitled to irish citizenship regardless of where you where born.
Slightly off subject but if you're born in NI or your partner is you can live in the US.

Leroy42

And there lies the core problem. It is very hard to see any deal, save for complete concessions from the EU, getting through.

The backstop is the problem now, but the £39bn is still being argued against. Citizens rights will continue to be an issue.

And then we have it all to do again as the realities of a FTA, mainly acceptance of standards, comes front and centre.

The more I listen and read opinions of brexiteers, the more I realise just how entrenched their position is. EU is a foreign power to them. Their sovereignty has been stolen. The EU are bullies. The people have spoken. Ireland is being used to punish the UK for voting. The list goes on.

They have created their list of enemies and they are too blame for anything that happens.

None of those are going to change any time soon.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

I stand corrected. That’s a bit of a downer. Thought we would freeload of Eu healthcare.

Ah, don't feel too bad about it. With your Irish passport, you can always up sticks and move south of the border, or get a job in any other EU country (plenty of seasonal jobs available in ski resorts and summer camps that the Brits won't be allowed apply for this year).

Mind you, that would imply that you think the EU is a good thing - a position that's kind of hard to reconcile with supporting Brexit.

VinLieger

CelticRambler wrote: »

Ah, don't feel too bad about it. With your Irish passport, you can always up sticks and move south of the border, or get a job in any other EU country (plenty of seasonal jobs available in ski resorts and summer camps that the Brits won't be allowed apply for this year).

Mind you, that would imply that you think the EU is a good thing - a position that's kind of hard to reconcile with supporting Brexit.

No no downcow has promised us they voted remain....

woohoo!!!

A border will appear once deals that the UK sign come into force that have different standards to the EU, or the UK implements it's own standards. This may take a while to come about.

After exit day, checks will mostly occur at ports and airports with random mobile checks at the border. What could hasten such or border checks start to become more permant is if smuggling becomes a huge problem.

The point I'm trying to illustrate is that a border is not going to appear immediately. It also served a political purpose and delaying the day that actual border infrastructure has to go in.

Factor in also that WTO disputes take time to settle also. In the short term it'll be those tariffs and custom delays that will hit first.

It is inevitable that the lack of an initial border will be seized upon by opponents of the backstop, as sure as night follows day and more scorn will be heaped on Ireland's position. But make no mistake, the day of reckoning is only put off. Combine that with temporary deals between the EU and UK lapsing which in my view will occur and then project reality hits home across the pond.

Ireland and the EU are ahead of the UK and will adjust quicker to the new reality. In the mean time, the UK needs to conclude that argument with itself, quicker would be better. I do fear major and long lasting instability for the UK though which is not in our interests.

woohoo!!!

Leroy42 wrote: »

And there lies the core problem. It is very hard to see any deal, save for complete concessions from the EU, getting through.

The backstop is the problem now, but the £39bn is still being argued against. Citizens rights will continue to be an issue.

And then we have it all to do again as the realities of a FTA, mainly acceptance of standards, comes front and centre.

The more I listen and read opinions of brexiteers, the more I realise just how entrenched their position is. EU is a foreign power to them. Their sovereignty has been stolen. The EU are bullies. The people have spoken. Ireland is being used to punish the UK for voting. The list goes on.

They have created their list of enemies and they are too blame for anything that happens.

None of those are going to change any time soon.

They have two things to resolve: the future relationship with Europe for which there is bitter division, and their on going constitutional crisis for which I think they need to bin FPTP. 2030 if I'm being optimistic.

downcow

CelticRambler wrote: »

Ah, don't feel too bad about it. With your Irish passport, you can always up sticks and move south of the border, or get a job in any other EU country (plenty of seasonal jobs available in ski resorts and summer camps that the Brits won't be allowed apply for this year).

Mind you, that would imply that you think the EU is a good thing - a position that's kind of hard to reconcile with supporting Brexit.

You really work hard to try and convince yourself Eu is the biz.
I travel to the eu27 regularly to follow my beloved NI football team. I would just be really useful to hold an Irish passport if it made that easier.
So I can assure you I wouldn’t swap my UK citizenship for an Eu one. If that’s what you hoping.

downcow

VinLieger wrote: »

No no downcow has promised us they voted remain....

???

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

You really work hard to try and convince yourself Eu is the biz.
I travel to the eu27 regularly to follow my beloved NI football team. I would just be really useful to hold an Irish passport if it made that easier.

The four freedoms of the EU are about a lot more than a bit of football tourism. I don't need to work hard to convince myself that the EU is the biz because I wake up every morning knowing that I can get a job or a doctor's appointment or a state benefit on exactly the same terms as my French (or Portugese) neighbours. But if ever the mood takes me, I can just as easily go back to live and work in Ireland, or move on to live and work in Italy or Germany. The only thing I'll need to change will be the reg plates on my campervan. :cool:

Edit: on a visit to my local tax office during the week, the first thing I saw when I walked in was huge poster - in English - offering advice and assistance to Brits who wanted to set up a new business in France. That's the back end of nowhere, France - not Paris or Bordeaux or any of the other big name cities.

woohoo!!!

downcow wrote: »

CelticRambler wrote: »

Ah, don't feel too bad about it. With your Irish passport, you can always up sticks and move south of the border, or get a job in any other EU country (plenty of seasonal jobs available in ski resorts and summer camps that the Brits won't be allowed apply for this year).

Mind you, that would imply that you think the EU is a good thing - a position that's kind of hard to reconcile with supporting Brexit.

You really work hard to try and convince yourself Eu is the biz.
I travel to the eu27 regularly to follow my beloved NI football team. I would just be really useful to hold an Irish passport if it made that easier.
So I can assure you I wouldn’t swap my UK citizenship for an Eu one. If that’s what you hoping.

One can have both and indeed many do.

downcow

CelticRambler wrote: »

The four freedoms of the EU are about a lot more than a bit of football tourism. I don't need to work hard to convince myself that the EU is the biz because I wake up every morning knowing that I can get a job or a doctor's appointment or a state benefit on exactly the same terms as my French (or Portugese) neighbours. But if ever the mood takes me, I can just as easily go back to live and work in Ireland, or move on to live and work in Italy or Germany. The only thing I'll need to change will be the reg plates on my campervan. :cool:
.

And why I love living in an NI as part of UK is that I can travel and work anywhere in the Eu plus I have all the benifits of living in UK. Free doctors appointments, free prescriptions, diverse society, I can elect my government and they operate in a language I understand and will soon control my laws. I enjoy that special relationship with eng, Scot, Wales, and in a few years time a great relationship with our friends in the Eu27
I could go on and on

Enzokk

woohoo!!! wrote: »

A border will appear once deals that the UK sign come into force that have different standards to the EU, or the UK implements it's own standards. This may take a while to come about.

After exit day, checks will mostly occur at ports and airports with random mobile checks at the border. What could hasten such or border checks start to become more permant is if smuggling becomes a huge problem.

The point I'm trying to illustrate is that a border is not going to appear immediately. It also served a political purpose and delaying the day that actual border infrastructure has to go in.

Factor in also that WTO disputes take time to settle also. In the short term it'll be those tariffs and custom delays that will hit first.

It is inevitable that the lack of an initial border will be seized upon by opponents of the backstop, as sure as night follows day and more scorn will be heaped on Ireland's position. But make no mistake, the day of reckoning is only put off. Combine that with temporary deals between the EU and UK lapsing which in my view will occur and then project reality hits home across the pond.

Ireland and the EU are ahead of the UK and will adjust quicker to the new reality. In the mean time, the UK needs to conclude that argument with itself, quicker would be better. I do fear major and long lasting instability for the UK though which is not in our interests.

In the event of no deal you would assume the EU would put the pressure on the border between England and the EU as that is where the main trade is and where the pressure on deliveries will be. I mean they will not have shortages in medicine and food due to the border between Ireland and the UK, it will be in the ports and Dover going to the EU. The focus will not be on the Irish border if it is kept open for a small time but the tailbacks on the M20 in Kent will take up all the time for the news channels.

woohoo!!!

Enzokk wrote: »

woohoo!!! wrote: »

A border will appear once deals that the UK sign come into force that have different standards to the EU, or the UK implements it's own standards. This may take a while to come about.

After exit day, checks will mostly occur at ports and airports with random mobile checks at the border. What could hasten such or border checks start to become more permant is if smuggling becomes a huge problem.

The point I'm trying to illustrate is that a border is not going to appear immediately. It also served a political purpose and delaying the day that actual border infrastructure has to go in.

Factor in also that WTO disputes take time to settle also. In the short term it'll be those tariffs and custom delays that will hit first.

It is inevitable that the lack of an initial border will be seized upon by opponents of the backstop, as sure as night follows day and more scorn will be heaped on Ireland's position. But make no mistake, the day of reckoning is only put off. Combine that with temporary deals between the EU and UK lapsing which in my view will occur and then project reality hits home across the pond.

Ireland and the EU are ahead of the UK and will adjust quicker to the new reality. In the mean time, the UK needs to conclude that argument with itself, quicker would be better. I do fear major and long lasting instability for the UK though which is not in our interests.

In the event of no deal you would assume the EU would put the pressure on the border between England and the EU as that is where the main trade is and where the pressure on deliveries will be. I mean they will not have shortages in medicine and food due to the border between Ireland and the UK, it will be in the ports and Dover going to the EU. The focus will not be on the Irish border if it is kept open for a small time but the tailbacks on the M20 in Kent will take up all the time for the news channels.

Yes, is where the focus will be. To say UK preparations are non existent to utterly shambolic, symbolises the ongoing farce in Westminster.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

And why I love living in an NI as part of UK is that I can travel and work anywhere in the Eu plus I have all the benifits of living in UK. Free doctors appointments, free prescriptions, diverse society, I can elect my government and they operate in a language I understand and will soon control my laws. I enjoy that special relationship with eng, Scot, Wales, and in a few years time a great relationship with our friends in the Eu27
I could go on and on

Sounds like a manifesto to leave to me.

What laws are you referring to? Which ones can not be controlled by the UK?

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

And why I love living in an NI as part of UK is that I can travel and work anywhere in the Eu plus I have all the benifits of living in UK. Free doctors appointments, free prescriptions, diverse society, I can elect my government and they operate in a language I understand and will soon control my laws.

In five weeks you'll lose your right to travel and work anywhere in the EU (without additional visa/visa waivers/work permit)

Unwelcome "diversity" is one of the supposed reasons the UK voted to leave the EU; but in any case, what you think is diversity within the UK is nothing compared to the diversity across the whole of the EU.

You may well have elected your government, but it hasn't sat for more than two years; and the Kingdom's government has been shown to be completely incapable of governing its subjects.

Because you have no government, you don't control your laws and are subject to the whims of a parliament in a different jurisdiction, whose members you didn't vote for.

Calina

downcow wrote: »

And why I love living in an NI as part of UK is that I can travel and work anywhere in the Eu plus I have all the benifits of living in UK. Free doctors appointments, free prescriptions, diverse society, I can elect my government and they operate in a language I understand and will soon control my laws. I enjoy that special relationship with eng, Scot, Wales, and in a few years time a great relationship with our friends in the Eu27
I could go on and on

You do know what the Tories have in mind for the NHS, don't you?

Plus, any right you have to work anywhere in the EU from Brexit you get as NI having special status courtesy of Ireland, not NI as part of the UK. At least be honest enough to recognise that.

mickoneill31

downcow wrote: »

And why I love living in an NI as part of UK is that I can travel and work anywhere in the Eu plus I have all the benifits of living in UK. Free doctors appointments, free prescriptions, diverse society, I can elect my government and they operate in a language I understand and will soon control my laws. I enjoy that special relationship with eng, Scot, Wales, and in a few years time a great relationship with our friends in the Eu27

I thought that the rubbish about controlling your own laws was dead. Which is the first law that you're looking forward to taking back control of?

downcow wrote: »

I could go on and on

No way?

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Sounds like a manifesto to leave to me.

What laws are you referring to? Which ones can not be controlled by the UK?

Yeah absolutely. It’s why I have moved to a leave position but I do accept a sizeable minority want to stay in Eu. But it would be a boring world if everyone felt the same.

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

And why I love living in an NI as part of UK is that I can travel and work anywhere in the Eu plus I have all the benifits of living in UK. Free doctors appointments, free prescriptions, diverse society, I can elect my government and they operate in a language I understand and will soon control my laws. I enjoy that special relationship with eng, Scot, Wales, and in a few years time a great relationship with our friends in the Eu27
I could go on and on

Thought you didn't want NI to be any different from GB..

Only when it suits you I suppose

downcow

CelticRambler wrote: »

In five weeks you'll lose your right to travel and work anywhere in the EU (without additional visa/visa waivers/work permit)

Unwelcome "diversity" is one of the supposed reasons the UK voted to leave the EU; but in any case, what you think is diversity within the UK is nothing compared to the diversity across the whole of the EU.

You may well have elected your government, but it hasn't sat for more than two years; and the Kingdom's government has been shown to be completely incapable of governing its subjects.

Because you have no government, you don't control your laws and are subject to the whims of a parliament in a different jurisdiction, whose members you didn't vote for.

i wasn’t aware I would need anything additional to a Dubliner to live and work in Eu???
I was not referring to the undemocratic shambles that is Stormont. I was referring to hoc which is not a separate jurisdiction and I can vote mps in. In fact you can’t have it both ways ie one minute saying NI is the tail wagging the UK dog and then say NI has no influence in hoc.

ilovesmybrick

CelticRambler wrote: »

Edit: on a visit to my local tax office during the week, the first thing I saw when I walked in was huge poster - in English - offering advice and assistance to Brits who wanted to set up a new business in France. That's the back end of nowhere, France - not Paris or Bordeaux or any of the other big name cities.

Actually a few weeks ago I was traveling through Pisa airport and they had a dedicated office after customs for information regarding Brexit, tax, travel etc. and Pisa is not what you would exactly call a large, international and well serviced airport! Meant to post it here at the time but it was a bit of a mess of a trip!

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Yeah absolutely. It’s why I have moved to a leave position but I do accept a sizeable minority want to stay in Eu. But it would be a boring world if everyone felt the same.

Why do you think you can zip around Europe seamlessly to your football games? What created that seamlessness?
Do you remember paying around 400-500 quid just to fly to places like Barcelona if you were lucky enough to find a flight?

And the laws you think are controlled by others, can you identify those or some of them?

downcow

downcow wrote: »

i wasn’t aware I would need anything additional to a Dubliner to live and work in Eu???

In five weeks, you will for anything on the European mainland, just as CR said. Is this news to you?

Professor Moriarty

downcow wrote: »

Yeah absolutely. It’s why I have moved to a leave position but I do accept a sizeable minority want to stay in Eu. But it would be a boring world if everyone felt the same.

NI voted Remain and that Remain vote has increased according to polls. Across the UK Remain now commands a 10% lead over Leave. Furthermore, that Leave vote is fragmented into Hard, May's deal and Norway+.

downcow

Calina wrote: »

You do know what the Tories have in mind for the NHS, don't you?

Plus, any right you have to work anywhere in the EU from Brexit you get as NI having special status courtesy of Ireland, not NI as part of the UK. At least be honest enough to recognise that.

Wrong. I have my special status courtesy of the gfa not Ireland. So at least be honest.
If it was courtesy of Ireland then you could remove it from us. But unfortunately for you that gfa you have such love for won’t let you take those rights of us. Ironic isn’t it

downcow

downcow wrote: »

Wrong. I have my special status courtesy of the gfa not Ireland. So at least be honest.
If it was courtesy of Ireland then you could remove it from us. But unfortunately for you that gfa you have such love for won’t let you take those rights of us. Ironic isn’t it

I'd have assumed you need an Irish passport for it? So I guess you have one?