Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk

alloywheel wrote: »

And it was not the British who attacked the customs posts.

Technically if they were born in NI they were British. It is the GFA that allows those from NI to identify as either British, Irish or both.

alloywheel

Seth Brundle wrote: »

has the UK received anything from being a member of the EU?

Plenty, during the refugee crises a few years ago it received a few extra hundred thousand.

Akrasia

alloywheel wrote: »

Plenty, during the refugee crises a few years ago it received a few extra hundred thousand.

And this is the true story of Brexit.

People who are prepared to destroy their own prosperity because they hate refugees

Hurrache

alloywheel wrote: »

Plenty, during the refugee crises a few years ago it received a few extra hundred thousand.

And there you go, the not so underlying current as to what this posters issues are. As I said a short while back, take a look at his posts to see what type of person he is.

Hurrache

Follow up on the US-Ireland-UK relationship, a bit of panic setting in maybe with some in the UK. Ireland's soft diplomacy since the madness began may show dividends.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1092721982876147714
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1092724761757650944

An Claidheamh

alloywheel wrote: »

And more than a few times the terrorist committed outrages in N. Ireland and escaped back across the border, hence there was a need for security on the border. Sometimes they even shot from this side of the border in to N. Ireland.

Sometimes, the terrorists were even allowed cross the border by British troops, bomb the capital and pass back.

On another occasion, the Gardaí caught terrorists and the Irish government drove them back across the border.

Of course, on these two instances they were were British backed terrorists so nothing to see.

Enzokk

Hurrache wrote: »

Follow up on the US-Ireland-UK relationship, a bit of panic setting in maybe with some in the UK. Ireland's soft diplomacy since the madness began may show dividends.

I wonder, in relation to the second tweet of the UK asking Trump to put pressure on Ireland to back down on the backstop, whether any country is still taking Trump seriously on the global stage? Would it matter if Trump himself became involved?

Also, somewhat ironic that the leavers are happy for US presidential intervention now but was telling Obama to keep quiet when he told the UK they would be at the back of the line for a trade deal.

Call me Al

alloywheel wrote: »

Plenty, during the refugee crises a few years ago it received a few extra hundred thousand.

And there it is.
Access to the 2nd largest market in the world which facilitated their governments to develop their economy and society as they chose over the 40+ years of membership, and access to the wealthiest and most developed economy in the world, and this is what it all boils down to.

alloywheel

Enzokk wrote: »

Technically if they were born in NI they were British. It is the GFA that allows those from NI to identify as either British, Irish or both.

Wrong, prior to the GFA plenty of people in N. Ireland identified themselves as Irish and had Irish passports.

breatheme

alloywheel wrote: »

Plenty, during the refugee crises a few years ago it received a few extra hundred thousand.

Really? Let's see. Go here, to page 6 and tell me how many refugees the UK accepted:

http://www.fes-croatia.org/fileadmin/user_upload/171011_Publikation_Relocation_of_refugees.pdf

I'll wait.

Leroy42

alloywheel wrote: »

To examine your silly example, if the UK reduced holidays by 50%, there would be strikes everywhere. Would not work so will not happen. However taxation of factories is much more relevant to companies to decide where to locate. Suppose a country lowers their corporation taxation rates by a huge amount...oh wait, we already done that, over the years .:D
How did they compete with that?

So you think the people in the factories will simply strike to deal with it? Then won't they strike over lower CT rates, of lower regulations, or loss of mobile data roaming or any of the other myriad of EU protections they have?

Oh wait, the will of the people already said to leave the EU, now that appears to mean No deal, which of course will necessitate a lowering of standards and a reduction in costs to deal with the terrible EU who are trying to punish the UK.

So, whilst of course it may not happen, what if it does. Its like an excercise in thinking through the possible issues with a particular position. You have stated that Leo should simply give the UK what it wants, and I made a, simple, example of how this might impact Ireland.

So based on your own dismissal, Ireland may be forced to reduce CT rates to compete, thus lowering our money available for the HSE etc. Are you really happy that Ireland will now be worse off?

Hurrache

Enzokk wrote: »

I wonder, in relation to the second tweet of the UK asking Trump to put pressure on Ireland to back down on the backstop, whether any country is still taking Trump seriously on the global stage? Would it matter if Trump himself became involved?

Can't see him being interested to begin with, plus it suits him for the UK to be in a weakened position anyway. And when it comes to the houses I don't think helping the UK to the detriment of Ireland would gain much traction.

fash

alloywheel wrote: »

Leo should be working with the UK and trying to hammer out a trade deal and making Brexit work, that would be better for everyone in the long run. He should stand up to the EU masters.

To bow and scrape and tug the forelock to our former masters? To "know our place" - and be threatened again with a genocidal famine if we fail to comply?
Are you aware of the history of the British in Ireland?

ancapailldorcha

No more personal abuse please. Posts deleted and ban issued.

lawred2

alloywheel wrote: »

Leo should be working with the UK and trying to hammer out a trade deal and making Brexit work, that would be better for everyone in the long run. He should stand up to the EU masters.

Ireland is a member of the EU and given the constitutional makeup of the EU is one of the 'EU masters'

You'd be better served with an open mind and some education but based on this stream of ignorant nonsense, an open mind would seem improbable and hoping for an ability to absorb information would seems aspirational at best.

Enzokk

Here is an interesting article from an MP, Andrea Jenkins, that met with Martin Selmayr.

After meeting Martin Selmayr, I know why the EU is confused about Brexit

She seems to be under the impression that the need for a deal for the EU is very palpable because Selmayr said both sides will be hurt in a no deal situation. This is because no other politicians has previously said the EU will be hurt in that scenario.

My view is that it highlighted that their minds are very much more focused as we approach the 29th March deadline. This was further evidenced by him stating that no deal would be damaging for both the UK and the EU, and an orderly withdrawal is the only way forward. And that they have been working on no deal damage limitation measures since the end of 2017.

This honest rhetoric about the impact on No-Deal on the EU is contrary to the recent articles or possibly speculation that we have heard about him trying to punish the UK for leaving the EU. The threat of No-Deal is possibly focusing his mind.

At the end of the article she is very much for leaving without a deal. Selmayr confirmed the WA is done and will not be opened. The only thing the UK can possible get is changes to the Political Declaration.

A deal is preferable. However, this cannot be a deal that put limits on our ability to trade freely outside the EU. We cannot continue to kick the can down the never-ending Brexit road. It has been over 950 days since the EU referendum and it will be over 1,000 come the end of March. I say no to extending Article 50, no to remaining in the EU’s institutions and no to any bad deal for our country, which is what we will get unless we leave on time. This is what the people voted for, now let’s deliver and give the country Brexit on March 29.

So it seems like with MPs like her in the HoC we will be heading for no deal. She laments that somehow there is a bias in the HoC and it is not in favour of the result. She completely misses the point on how the referendum didn't specify what leaving meant but she will forge ahead regardless. Her questions also seemed to want to trap May and what she has asked for to use it against her.

I asked Mr Selmayr whether the Prime Minister had ever asked for the backstop to be removed. He stated that he wasn't aware of her asking for this and she had certainly not asked him. He also stated that there has been no request to reopen negations by the British Government.

So that is why I think even with a change to the Political Declaration we will not see May getting her deal through. The ERG and Leave MPs are not going to be satisfied with anything less than their unicorns and anything else will be voted down. Strap ourselves in, it is going to get rough for the next 8 months or so.

blanch152

alloywheel wrote: »

The UK will not spend one penny erecting a hard border in Ireland. They do not want it.

So, some Irish company, probably a food one, gets contamination in its product, and is no longer able to sell the product on the EU market because of strict EU guidelines, instead of dumping the product and taking a loss, they can just drive it up the North, sell it up there or over in England and get some money from it? If British people get sick from the contaminated product, who will know where it came from?

That is what can happen with an open border.

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Sometimes, the terrorists were even allowed cross the border by British troops, bomb the capital and pass back.

On another occasion, the Gardaí caught terrorists and the Irish government drove them back across the border.

Of course, on these two instances they were were British backed terrorists so nothing to see.

An awful lot of unproven nonsense being posted by people from both sides in this thread. This is another example of allegations being put forward as if they were proven truths.

josip

I think the Chris Grayling statement mentioned earlier is significant.

We have taken to our parliament the deal reached in November and our parliament has said no.
We want to work with the EU to reach a deal but if they are not prepared to do that – they will have to take responsibility that we are heading towards a no-deal exit.
If they are not willing to compromise, if they’re not willing to work with us to find common ground – it will be down to them if there is no deal.

It shows that some, perhaps all, of the UK government have given up on resolving the predicament into which they have gotten themselves, and have switched to blame mode.

It also shows that any economic downturn arising from no-deal Brexit will be blamed on Ireland/EU,drive them further away and into further economic decline.

With that kind of mindset, who knows how bad things will get ?

Hurrache

One of the Norwegian education ministers has told students there to avoid going to UK Universities

`

In blunt comments, Iselin Nybø, Norway’s minister responsible for higher education, urged students to avoid British universities.

Speaking to state broadcaster NRK, she said: “There’s so much uncertainty because of Brexit. If you’re a student and plan to travel out of Norway to study this autumn, I recommend you look at other countries than Great Britain.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/04/norway-students-uk-universities-brexit-warning?CMP=share_btn_tw

Imreoir2

alloywheel wrote: »

A border down the Irish sea would not work, Northern Ireland does much more trade with mainland Britain than it does with the Republic.

The British government does not want a hard border in Ireland, the unionists do not want it and nobody else in Ireland wants a hard border...the only people who want a hard border are the EU. Time Leo stood up to them, or we will get shafted by our EU masters again, same as we did during the credit bubble and subsequent save the German bondholders bailout.

Much of NI's trade with the UK goes through Dublin, in a no-deal scenario there will be a border on the Irish sea between the Republic and the UK, this will seriously effect NI business with or without a backstop.

Ireland is the EU, it is our own single market that we would have to protect. Brexit and those promoting it in the British Parliament are responsible for forcing a situation whereby a border becomes necessary to protect our single market. This is and remains a British decision, it is not the EU or Ireland that created this mess and it is not our responsibility to compromise on our future economic prosperity by cutting ourselves off from our most important market to make Brexit work.

Imreoir2

alloywheel wrote: »

It was not hard compared to the border in Germany, for example. There was security on the border here in Ireland (because of terrorism) during the troubles but if it was not for the terrorists there would have been no need to spend so much effort and money on the border infrastructure during the troubles.

Who said the border was the same as the Berlin Wall? Strawman arguement, try harder.

If it were not for the terrorists and the decades long armed conflict that was recently ended through a peace treaty, then yeah the border and the backstop would not be such an issue. But the reality is that there were and are terrorists and there was a decades long conflict that was only recently ended and the threat of a re-emergance of violence remains, thats the point! Customs posts gives terrorists who want to restart the troubles a soft target to attack and aim to get support from nationalists who view a reimposed border as an unwelcome sign of continued British domnance of their homeland. The GFA, and the removal of border infastructure that went along with it allowed for a normalisation of the border and a reduction of tensions around it which was a contributing factor to ending the armed conflict. Have you not been following the discussion?

breatheme

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Much of NI's trade with the UK goes through Dublin, in a no-deal scenario there will be a border on the Irish sea between the Republic and the UK, this will seriously effect NI business with or without a backstop.

Ireland is the EU, it is our own single market that we would have to protect. Brexit and those promoting it in the British Parliament are responsible for forcing a situation whereby a border becomes necessary to protect our single market. This is and remains a British decision, it is not the EU or Ireland that created this mess and it is not our responsibility to compromise on our future economic prosperity by cutting ourselves off from our most important market to make Brexit work.

And let's not forget the fact that the backstop explicitly allowed NI to sell to the UK frictionlessly.

DrumSteve

It's fairly obvious what their plan is since they have unable to isolate us; it's to run down the clock and blame it on us anyway if they can't get a concession.

Inquitus

DrumSteve wrote: »

It's fairly obvious what their plan is since they have unable to isolate us; it's to run down the clock and blame it on us anyway if they can't get a concession.

It's a question of the UK thinking that the EU will blink, but certainly both sides can stare each out other into a no deal, personally I cannot see the EU budging.

Imreoir2

DrumSteve wrote: »

It's fairly obvious what their plan is since they have unable to isolate us; it's to run down the clock and blame it on us anyway if they can't get a concession.

That is as far as their plan goes unfortunatly. They seem to forget that while they might live in fear of the ire of British tabloids, the leaders on our side of the table are not so concerned about who gets the blame for a no-deal Brexit in the British press.

While they can play the blame game in the media and perhaps even gain a boost in popularity for wraping the red white and blue flage round themselves by not backing down to the Frogs, Jerries and Paddies, the economic consequences of their actions will take hold. They can shift the blame for a while perhaps, but they cant shift the economic damage, and they will likely be blamed for that once it can no longer be denyed that their actions and choices have led to ruin.

EdgeCase

There's a huge lack of reality going on in the UK. They seem to be both unaware of how serious this situation is and also unaware of how little leverage they really have.

This is going to be a significant bump in the road for the EU, but that's all it is. You're talking about a period of reorganisation of supply chains, notably in Ireland, but for the UK it's permanent.

The UK's negotiation tactic basically seems to be to threaten to destroy its own economy.

It's very hard to have a logical discussion with that kind of thought process.

FrancieBrady

Imreoir2 wrote: »

That is as far as their plan goes unfortunatly. They seem to forget that while they might live in fear of the ire of British tabloids, the leaders on our side of the table are not so concerned about who gets the blame for a no-deal Brexit in the British press.

While they can play the blame game in the media and perhaps even gain a boost in popularity for wraping the red white and blue flage round themselves by not backing down to the Frogs, Jerries and Paddies, the economic consequences of their actions will take hold. They can shift the blame for a while perhaps, but they cant shift the economic damage, and they will likely be blamed for that once it can no longer be denyed that their actions and choices have led to ruin.

And the huge worry for the northern Irish is that the British will actively ignore their commitments to the GFA, going forward.
Although personally I think the petty membership of the Tories will seek revenge on the DUP. They will be the fall guys for all this ultimately. Without them we would be heading towards the implementation of a deal that really suited everyone, in a practical sense. The DUP forced the failure of it for abstract wooly headed notions of belonging.

Quin_Dub

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And the huge worry for the northern Irish is that the British will actively ignore their commitments to the GFA, going forward.
Although personally I think the petty membership of the Tories will seek revenge on the DUP. They will be the fall guys for all this ultimately. Without them we would be heading towards the implementation of a deal that really suited everyone, in a practical sense. The DUP forced the failure of it for abstract wooly headed notions of belonging.

I don't necessarily disagree with that viewpoint at all , but there is no question that a certain cohort within the Tories and the ERG are actively seeking a no-deal exit and are using the DUP and their opposition to the Backstop as Patsies to a very large degree.

Seth Brundle

Reuters spreading more fake news regarding the British economy...

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1092744759142203392

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s economy risks stalling or contracting as Brexit nears and a global slowdown worsens, with firms in the dominant services sector reporting job cuts for the first time in six years and falling new orders.
...
“The risk is that activity softens further — firms will become increasingly risk-averse and implement contingency Brexit planning,” ING economist James Smith said.

Tuesday’s figures are likely to worry Bank of England officials ahead of their latest interest rate decision announcement and new forecasts for the economy on Thursday.

demfad

An astute article by Ian Dunt on the ridiculous Malthouse Compromise.
http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/01/29/desperate-new-tory-brexit-compromise-is-as-pitiful-as-all-th

But there is a problem with the compromise: it is a useless pile of ERG sex fantasies, dressed up in nonsense legalese to hide its blushes. It would not get the support of the EU, it cannot be done in time, it does not solve the problems it claims to, it contains no new ideas, it is legally and strategically unsound, grossly misleading and full of lies about WTO laws its authors have not fully understood.